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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Are Cubs’ flaws hiding behind the team’s great record?

If the Cubs weren’t 41-18, Maddon might finally decide a change in the batting order could be warranted after No. 2 hitter Jason Heyward struck out three more times and went 0-for-4.

If the division lead was smaller, there might be more concern with some bullpen members who either continue to struggle or have been trending that way. Justin Grimm saw his ERA (5.57) rise again after giving up two hits and a walk without recording an out. That’s not far from what happened in Philadelphia a few days earlier, though this time he was pulled before giving up a long ball.

Clayton Richard picked up where Grimm left off, giving up a run-scoring single and a long sacrifice fly in the eighth inning before getting out of the jam. But the damage was done as a 3-1 Braves lead ballooned to 5-1.

 

 

McCoy Posted: June 11, 2016 at 01:50 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs

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   1. McCoy Posted: June 11, 2016 at 10:27 PM (#5241688)
Good to see Heyward hit a homer and get on so he fellow Cubbies could knock him home with a homer as well.
   2. Cargo Cultist Posted: June 11, 2016 at 10:50 PM (#5241690)
I would bat Heyward 7th.
   3. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 11, 2016 at 11:04 PM (#5241693)
If the division lead was smaller, there might be more concern with some bullpen members who either continue to struggle or have been trending that way. Justin Grimm saw his ERA (5.57) rise again after giving up two hits and a walk without recording an out.

I don't know that I'd say, "The 10th guy on the staff is the first one with an ERA over 3" is all that much of a problem.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 11, 2016 at 11:09 PM (#5241694)
The Cubs are a great team.

The Cubs are not perfect.

These are not mutually exclusive statements. I mean I think some of the talk about the Cubs has been over the top but they are a very very very good team. At some point Heyward needs to hit, I don't buy Hammell being this good and Lester and Lackey are at ages where they aren't a certainty to stay healthy but I'd bet on them having the best record in he national league come October.
   5. Bote Man Posted: June 12, 2016 at 06:10 AM (#5241737)
Some people just can't stand the prosperity.
   6. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: June 12, 2016 at 07:39 AM (#5241740)
Now the Cubs are four games under their pythag.
   7. Andere Richtingen Posted: June 12, 2016 at 07:55 AM (#5241743)
Headline: Are truisms true things so obvious that they aren't worthy of being mentioned?
   8. bfan Posted: June 12, 2016 at 08:21 AM (#5241745)
after being so bad for so long, I do not blame Cub writers for trying to see the negative in all of the greatness. However, they are pretty darn great. Fowler, Bryant and Rizzo sure make sure a great start on the hitting side, and who knew they would pitch this well?
   9. and Posted: June 12, 2016 at 09:13 AM (#5241750)
I hear Clooney doesn't put the toilet seat down.
   10. McCoy Posted: June 12, 2016 at 09:31 AM (#5241754)
Fowler, Bryant and Rizzo sure make sure a great start on the hitting side, and who knew they would pitch this well?

Surprised to see Fowler's name up there. Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist is the true heart of the offense but, yeah, Fowler has been pretty good. Even though he's cooled down significantly since his hot start he's still doing what you want out of your leadoff centerfielder. Though June hasn't been kind to him.
   11. Spahn Insane Posted: June 12, 2016 at 09:50 AM (#5241758)
What Andere said; aside from the obvious truism (is there another kind?), TFA proceeds to engage in zero analysis of what those flaws are. (And yes, they exist--bullpen's weak from the left side, Hammel's not going to sustain this all year, Hendricks probably won't either, and the Jo(h)n L's are good but probably not this good, and they've gotten dinged up pretty well which has tested their depth. That last isn't really a "weakness;" quite the opposite, it's a sign of how much quality position player depth they have that they've withstood those injuries as well as they have. Same with Heyward's performance--he's not going to be an offensive powerhouse, but he's certainly better than he's shown to this point. I don't see much negative regression on the position player side.)
   12. bfan Posted: June 12, 2016 at 10:49 AM (#5241767)

Surprised to see Fowler's name up there


Forgot about Zobrist, but .909 OPS from a center-fielder; what's not to love about that?
   13. McCoy Posted: June 12, 2016 at 10:59 AM (#5241769)
I don't see much negative regression on the position player side.)

Rizzo and Bryant? Sure. Everywhere else that is hard to buy.

Montero is banged up and Ross is old. There is no reason to expect Ross to perform as well as he has going forward and Montero looks like he's going to be toast for the foreseeable future.

Zobrist is having an amazing yea but he's never done anything close to this. He had a great May no real reason to expect him to keep doing that.

Russell probably isn't going to regress but his seasonal line isn't great so that doesn't mean all that much.

Fowler is already regressing.

Soler is doing his usual thing.

Heyward could very well be a sinkhole all year if he isn't getting over his injury.

Baez isn't going to be as bad as May and isn't going to keep his June up. Having said I think he'll probably play right around where he is now.

The Cubs have a great thing going. They have 2 very good hitters who are consistently good and don't appear to be playing over their heads. That leaves 7 (yes 7) other spots in the lineup to generate additional runs so they don't need them all firing on all cylinders at once. And that depth is what is keeping the Cubs scoring 5 runs a game. Having said that it is also quite possible the Cubs could hit a stretch where they all misfire at once. I don't think this team is going to get in month long slumps but I have been projecting them to comeback to around 4.7 RPG. Lately I've nudged them up to 4.8 RPG. Cubs were scoring just under 5 RPG in May and are at 4.7 RPG in June.
   14. The Duke Posted: June 12, 2016 at 01:45 PM (#5241847)
Heyward is one of the most over-rated players in the game and he has no margin for error with his swing mechanics but he is a solid defensive fielder and decent baserunner. It's not worth 200 million but they have so much talent it doesn't matter. That won't always be the case.
   15. ReggieThomasLives Posted: June 12, 2016 at 02:10 PM (#5241863)
Heyward is having his worst hitting season ever, and only on pace to be worth 3.5 wins. That 8 year contract won't end until he's 33 years old, at which point he could be the worst player in baseball and either the Hilary hyperinflation or Trump default will mean he's ridiculously underpaid.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: June 12, 2016 at 03:52 PM (#5241964)
FWIW, in June, Heyward has hit 278/350/556. For the last month, it's distinctly less attractive but tolerable 250/327/432 (about a 104 OPS+).

I agree he's not been ideal in the #2 spot, maybe especially given Maddon's previous preference for having a power bat in the 2 hole. In the NL, I've always liked a guy like Heyward in the #6 spot since he's (historically) got enough power to drive in guys on base and enough base-stealing speed to set up RBI/IBB opportunities for the 7/8 hitters.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: June 12, 2016 at 03:58 PM (#5241971)
Heyward is having his worst hitting season ever, and only on pace to be worth 3.5 wins. That 8 year contract won't end until he's 33 years old, at which point he could be the worst player in baseball



This is one of the most ridiculous comments I've seen on this board. It's 2 months into a season for a guy who historically starts off slow and is showing some signs of normalcy.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: June 12, 2016 at 04:03 PM (#5241977)
wooosh
   19. Walt Davis Posted: June 12, 2016 at 04:19 PM (#5241992)
On the flaws -- LHR and Grimm's hit a rough stretch and Warren's hardly been dominant. Spencer Patton is still putting up crazy numbers at AAA (37/9 in 22 IP, 1.23 ERA) and no matter how much a manager (or me) likes having 2 lefties, I simply can't justify Richard on the roster over Patton. Between AA/AAA, LHR Gerardo Concepcion is 31/12 with just 13 hits in 31 IP and 1.17 ERA -- he was insanely dominant in AA. Other than that, there are a number of guys you'd be happy to use to soak up some low-leverage innings but generally everybody is walking too many guys to be a serious ML option.

C is obviously an issue. Overall their hitting has been fine but we can't expect Ross to continue that and I'm not sure these guys can stay healthy enough to catch 162 games, requiring a 3rd C at times (ugh). Of course Contreras has looked great at AAA.

I suspect Soler's days may be numbered especially when LaStella is healthy. He could stick of course but between Coghlan, Baez, LaStella and Soler, I think he'll be Maddon's 4th option (or #2 RHB option) without a lot of playing time. I doubt he can be a major piece in a big trade anymore but should be more than enough for a 2nd LHP and/or a decent backup C type.

I assume the defense has to regress some --- they're on pace for something like +60 Rfield -- but they're a good defensive team. My main concern was Zobrist at 2B but he's looked solid. Fowler has looked much better, at least making all the plays I'd expect him to make.
   20. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 12, 2016 at 04:35 PM (#5242004)
I suspect Soler's days may be numbered especially when LaStella is healthy. He could stick of course but between Coghlan, Baez, LaStella and Soler, I think he'll be Maddon's 4th option (or #2 RHB option) without a lot of playing time. I doubt he can be a major piece in a big trade anymore but should be more than enough for a 2nd LHP and/or a decent backup C type.


Soler was batting .318/.434/.591 over his last 17 games (53 PA) before his injury. I do worry that he'll scuffle when he comes back, but the potential is still there. I'd be a little surprised if Coghlan has a future on the Cubs once LaStella and Soler are healthy unless the Cubs finally drop the 3rd catcher - or drop Richard without replacing him; given the Cubs' starting rotation, they probably have one more bullpen arm than they really need.
   21. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 12, 2016 at 06:03 PM (#5242069)
I highly doubt Soler's days are numbered. If he wasn't at risk of demotion when his OPS+ was 43, he's not at risk of losing his job now, to Coghlan of all people. Federowicz is obviously the next guy to go, but it could just mean Almora goes back to AAA when Soler comes back if they still think they need to carry a 3rd catcher (and I still disagree with that).

C is obviously an issue. Overall their hitting has been fine but we can't expect Ross to continue that and I'm not sure these guys can stay healthy enough to catch 162 games, requiring a 3rd C at times (ugh). Of course Contreras has looked great at AAA.

As bad as Montero's been, he still has a .339 OBP. Ross is Ross, and the Cubs have demonstrated they have no problem giving up offense for defense at a spot or two. The hitting, even after Ross comes back to earth, is only a problem with the rest of the lineup and the quality bats are also slumping.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: June 12, 2016 at 06:52 PM (#5242098)
Soler's days were numbered when the season started and they only became un-numbered because of Schwarber's injury. With Coghlan back and LaStella hitting and Baez being the better player so far this year, he's going to have a hard time finding PT. With Almora hitting at AAA, his role on the 2017 Cubs looks to be limited unless Schwarber's rehab goes poorly (which would raise the probability of Fowler being back).
   23. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 12, 2016 at 07:58 PM (#5242147)
Joe loves Soler (and Baez). I don't think Coghlan has anything to do with whether or not Soler is on the team next year. Same with LaStella.

If the Cubs believe in Almora,that means Fowler is gone. The Cubs have shown no inclination of moving Fowler to LF, so no reason to assume they'd keep him next year to move him over.
   24. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: June 12, 2016 at 08:24 PM (#5242154)
I figured Fowler was gone regardless. He's a one-year rental and if he keeps playing like he's been playing, he'll land himself a much better contract that with whatever the Cubs would be willing to offer him. Maybe the Yankees or Angels sign him; some team like that.

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