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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, June 11, 2016Are Cubs’ flaws hiding behind the team’s great record?
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1. McCoy Posted: June 11, 2016 at 10:27 PM (#5241688)I don't know that I'd say, "The 10th guy on the staff is the first one with an ERA over 3" is all that much of a problem.
The Cubs are not perfect.
These are not mutually exclusive statements. I mean I think some of the talk about the Cubs has been over the top but they are a very very very good team. At some point Heyward needs to hit, I don't buy Hammell being this good and Lester and Lackey are at ages where they aren't a certainty to stay healthy but I'd bet on them having the best record in he national league come October.
Surprised to see Fowler's name up there. Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist is the true heart of the offense but, yeah, Fowler has been pretty good. Even though he's cooled down significantly since his hot start he's still doing what you want out of your leadoff centerfielder. Though June hasn't been kind to him.
Forgot about Zobrist, but .909 OPS from a center-fielder; what's not to love about that?
Rizzo and Bryant? Sure. Everywhere else that is hard to buy.
Montero is banged up and Ross is old. There is no reason to expect Ross to perform as well as he has going forward and Montero looks like he's going to be toast for the foreseeable future.
Zobrist is having an amazing yea but he's never done anything close to this. He had a great May no real reason to expect him to keep doing that.
Russell probably isn't going to regress but his seasonal line isn't great so that doesn't mean all that much.
Fowler is already regressing.
Soler is doing his usual thing.
Heyward could very well be a sinkhole all year if he isn't getting over his injury.
Baez isn't going to be as bad as May and isn't going to keep his June up. Having said I think he'll probably play right around where he is now.
The Cubs have a great thing going. They have 2 very good hitters who are consistently good and don't appear to be playing over their heads. That leaves 7 (yes 7) other spots in the lineup to generate additional runs so they don't need them all firing on all cylinders at once. And that depth is what is keeping the Cubs scoring 5 runs a game. Having said that it is also quite possible the Cubs could hit a stretch where they all misfire at once. I don't think this team is going to get in month long slumps but I have been projecting them to comeback to around 4.7 RPG. Lately I've nudged them up to 4.8 RPG. Cubs were scoring just under 5 RPG in May and are at 4.7 RPG in June.
I agree he's not been ideal in the #2 spot, maybe especially given Maddon's previous preference for having a power bat in the 2 hole. In the NL, I've always liked a guy like Heyward in the #6 spot since he's (historically) got enough power to drive in guys on base and enough base-stealing speed to set up RBI/IBB opportunities for the 7/8 hitters.
This is one of the most ridiculous comments I've seen on this board. It's 2 months into a season for a guy who historically starts off slow and is showing some signs of normalcy.
C is obviously an issue. Overall their hitting has been fine but we can't expect Ross to continue that and I'm not sure these guys can stay healthy enough to catch 162 games, requiring a 3rd C at times (ugh). Of course Contreras has looked great at AAA.
I suspect Soler's days may be numbered especially when LaStella is healthy. He could stick of course but between Coghlan, Baez, LaStella and Soler, I think he'll be Maddon's 4th option (or #2 RHB option) without a lot of playing time. I doubt he can be a major piece in a big trade anymore but should be more than enough for a 2nd LHP and/or a decent backup C type.
I assume the defense has to regress some --- they're on pace for something like +60 Rfield -- but they're a good defensive team. My main concern was Zobrist at 2B but he's looked solid. Fowler has looked much better, at least making all the plays I'd expect him to make.
Soler was batting .318/.434/.591 over his last 17 games (53 PA) before his injury. I do worry that he'll scuffle when he comes back, but the potential is still there. I'd be a little surprised if Coghlan has a future on the Cubs once LaStella and Soler are healthy unless the Cubs finally drop the 3rd catcher - or drop Richard without replacing him; given the Cubs' starting rotation, they probably have one more bullpen arm than they really need.
C is obviously an issue. Overall their hitting has been fine but we can't expect Ross to continue that and I'm not sure these guys can stay healthy enough to catch 162 games, requiring a 3rd C at times (ugh). Of course Contreras has looked great at AAA.
As bad as Montero's been, he still has a .339 OBP. Ross is Ross, and the Cubs have demonstrated they have no problem giving up offense for defense at a spot or two. The hitting, even after Ross comes back to earth, is only a problem with the rest of the lineup and the quality bats are also slumping.
If the Cubs believe in Almora,that means Fowler is gone. The Cubs have shown no inclination of moving Fowler to LF, so no reason to assume they'd keep him next year to move him over.
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