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Friday, November 20, 2020

Arenado to Dodgers? Don’t rule it out

One source said Thursday that the Dodgers—who have liked Arenado for years—remain interested in trading for him. If anything, there are more reasons to believe in the viability of an Arenado trade with the Dodgers today than last offseason, when his future was a dominant industry topic.

The Rockies must remain open-minded to trading Arenado for a variety of reasons: Even with him, their chances of finishing ahead of the Dodgers and Padres in 2021 are not especially good; Arenado can opt out of his contract and sign elsewhere following the ’21 season, leaving the Rockies with only a Draft pick as compensation; and if Arenado doesn’t opt out, he’s due $164 million from ’22 through ’26, a significant obligation as the Rockies contemplate the financial implications of COVID-19.

Arenado, 29, grew up as a Dodgers fan in Lake Forest, Calif., and certainly would waive his no-trade protection to play for his childhood team. The famously intense Arenado—long frustrated by the Rockies’ inability to succeed in October—would bring new desperation to a clubhouse of champions.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 20, 2020 at 10:52 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nolan arenado

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5990155)
The problem of course is that, even if you overlook Arenado's 2020, he's owed 6/$198. Now even if you ignore whatever effect the virus will have on the labor market, he's full market price, maybe even a bit above. The Rox really have little/no value to trade here. Of course that was mostly true of the Red Sox and Mookie last year but the Dodgers paid very good value there.

I will guess the Dodgers would probably prefer Lindor (Seager to 3B), at least if they think they can extend him. Of course they're the Dodgers so why not both.
   2. Rally Posted: November 20, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5990159)
I tried this a few years ago when I took over the Dodgers in an OOTP game. Did not work out. I guess OOTP took it's park effects seriously and while I thought I was getting a middle of the order bat, Arenado turned into more of a Scott Brosius - good glove, ordinary bat.
   3. Adam Starblind Posted: November 20, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5990160)
The Rox really have little/no value to trade here.


Only if you are talking about a linear measure of $/WAR. Arenado's value is that he's a 5-win player, give or take, and those don't grow on trees. You can't take a 2-win player and a 3-win player and have them both stand on third base.
   4. Rally Posted: November 20, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5990161)
Sure, he has value, but he might not have any net trade value. I don't know if his trade value is positive or not, but one thing is for sure: He'd have a lot more trade value if he was owed 75 million over the next 6 years than 198.
   5. The Duke Posted: November 20, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5990176)
This contract is so under water. Massive in length and on $$. Arenado now seems to have a chronic bad shoulder. He is going to be a late period Scott Rolen.
   6. Rally Posted: November 20, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5990183)
He turns 30 at the beginning of next season. From age 30-35, Rolen averaged 114 games and 3.7 WAR per season. 22 WAR total.
   7. Adam Starblind Posted: November 20, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5990186)
Sure, he has value, but he might not have any net trade value. I don't know if his trade value is positive or not, but one thing is for sure: He'd have a lot more trade value if he was owed 75 million over the next 6 years than 198.


Of course he has trade value. There are a limited number of 5-WAR(ish) third basemen out there. If you your purpose is to get the most WAR per dollar, he's not a great investment. If your purpose is to cram as many WAR onto the field as you can at once, he's valuable.

Note, I say all of this contingent on his being relatively healthy. Obviously if his shoulder is a mess he may not be a 5-win player at all, in which case I take it all back.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5990194)
#3: And the Dodgers might well be willing to take on that contract in exchange for virtually nothing for that very reason. Perhaps they feel that Arenado's "non-linear" value is sufficient to return a middling prospect. Your comment says nothing about what value the Dodgers should give in return for the right to pay Arenado $199 M. It ignores the question of whether Arenado is likely to remain a 5-WAR player. In short, you haven't made any actual attempt to answer the relevant question. Paradoxically, you are making the $/WAR argument, that Arenado's assumed 5 WAR would not only be worth a team paying him $199 M but also (apparently) surrendering value in return.

The Dodgers of course have other "non-linear" options. They might sign Bauer or Springer (5 WAR/650 2016-20) at the cost of nothing but money, probably less money than $199 M. They might trade for Lindor and try to extend him (probably at a pre-covid AAV similar to Arenado's). They might prefer spending the money they'd spend on Arenado to extend Bellinger, Seager, Buehler, etc.

People like to pull out this "non-linear" stuff as if it's deeply insightful. But the fact is that, in the actual labor market, there's no strong evidence that the Dodgers (Yankees, etc.) are willing to overpay to any great extent. They can kinda always win the auction if they want to but they win that auction with an extra few million, not some exponential value. Even if Arenado is more valuable to the Dodgers, there's no reason for them to pay him substantially more than any other team. If Arenado was an FA this offseason, the Dodgers would not be offering him 6/$220 M so why would they take him on at $200 M while returning substantial value to the Rox?

And of course what are these historical trades where a contract like Arenado's was moved at full cost and returned substantial value? Stanton brought nothing back to the Marlins and they had to pick up a substantial chunk of money unless he opted out. Looking down through Cot's, the next big contract moved was Cano's for which the M's had to eat about half the contract (mainly through taking salary in exchange). Price was moved as part of the Mookie deal and was definitely a "penalty." The DBacks threw cash into the Greinke deal and maybe Seth Beer will turn into something. There's the Nick Punto trade back in 2012 -- that was a lot of dead weight going both directions and money from Bos to LA but not a lot of talent going to Boston.

So has there been a "non-linear" trade in the last decade other than Betts? That one's not a match for a potential Arenado trade since Betts was a pending FA but the Dodgers certainly paid a high price that only makes sense if they were quite convinced they were going to sign him which would require "full market value." I still can't quite believe they were willing to eat half of Price plus give up Verdugo for just the chance of signing Mookie but they got what they wanted. Of course, that's the 'non-linearity" of the 2nd-best player in the game in his prime ages.

Anyway, terrible time to try to trade Arenado if you want value back. Supposedly they tried last year without finding what they wanted in return. Now you've got 200 poor PAs (but continuing outstanding defense) and uncertain post-covid revenues ... anybody really think the Rox aren't gonna have to eat money in an Arendao trade?
   9. Adam Starblind Posted: November 20, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5990218)
Too long, didn’t read.

Actually, I read until you got obnoxious. Your posts would be more enjoyable if you would leave that kind of nonsense out.
   10. Rally Posted: November 20, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5990237)
Of course he has trade value. There are a limited number of 5-WAR(ish) third basemen out there. If you your purpose is to get the most WAR per dollar, he's not a great investment. If your purpose is to cram as many WAR onto the field as you can at once, he's valuable.


Assuming he’s still a 5 WAR player, would you say he has trade value if he was signed for 400 million over the next 6 years?
   11. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: November 20, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5990252)
There are a lot of roadblocks to trading Arenado so it is hard to see how it happens. Are there any other likely destinations besides the Dodgers or Mets?
   12. Adam Starblind Posted: November 20, 2020 at 07:19 PM (#5990270)
Assuming he’s still a 5 WAR player, would you say he has trade value if he was signed for 400 million over the next 6 years?.


It seems unlikely that there would be a market for him. Nobody’s ever paid that kind of money for any of player.
   13. bfan Posted: November 20, 2020 at 10:12 PM (#5990351)
He is too expensive. New York and Los Angeles can handle it (Dodgers or Mets). What that person said above is true; that is a sad by product of modern baseball.
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 21, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5990397)
The Dodgers can always just re-sign Justin Turner, who has been a consistent 4-5 WAR player, though he is getting kind of old. But the getting kind of old thing also means he's likely to be relatively cheap, like 2 years for $30 million or so. Turner took a discount to stay in LA the last time he was a free agent. So sure, Arenado would be cool, but the Rockies would have to throw in some significant money to make it work.
   15. sunday silence (again) Posted: November 21, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5990431)
They can kinda always win the auction if they want to but they win that auction with an extra few million, not some exponential value.


Well sure. But isnt that how all auctions work? you win by some incremental value over the last bid. Im not sure I get your pt. In fact, I am not getting your point. Can you explain?
   16. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 21, 2020 at 10:17 AM (#5990432)
[15] In an English open auction, yes. But in baseball, the other bids are unknown. Sometimes a team pays way more than anyone else will offer because they don’t realize what the other offers are.
   17. depletion Posted: November 21, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5990566)
But Instructor, isn't that a rare move? I can think of Arod to the Rangers, perhaps Pedro Martinez to the Mets. Jayson Werth to the Nationals was largely seen as an intentional move by the then-cellar dweller Nats to gain legitimacy. Usually there are lots of articles, almost always cited here, about the probable value of a ball player contact.
Colorado's problem is that Arenado is an above average hitter, and no better, outside Coors Field. That contract is way out of line for any team but the Rockies. So, yes, they'd have to throw in another valuable player and some cash, perhaps.
   18. depletion Posted: November 21, 2020 at 05:16 PM (#5990572)
At Citi Field, 91 PA, .229 /.275/ .410/ OPS = .684
For $32 million a year...Sure he's probably going to do better than that, but that's the data.
Dodger Stadium, 266 PA, .251 /.312/.473/ OPS = .785
   19. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 22, 2020 at 01:48 AM (#5990618)
[17] Thing is, we don’t really know what the non-winning bids were. Some times somebody leaks what an offer was to the press but even then it’s unverifiable. But based on rumors, iirc, Kevin Brown and Alfonso Soriano also got significantly larger paydays than the second largest offer.
   20. Jack Sommers Posted: November 22, 2020 at 08:52 PM (#5990759)
Corey Seager is a better hitter than Arenado, (129 career OPS+ to 120 for Arenado)

He's also 3 years younger.

They should Invest in Seager, move him to 3rd base, and go get another SS.

Stathead Player Comparison



   21. DFA Posted: November 24, 2020 at 12:39 AM (#5990935)
I have no idea why the Dodgers would give up anything of value for him, in lieu of his contract. Which, if true, makes it hard to see how the Rockies would accept nothing for him? It's a bad situation, all the more awkward when he doesn't opt out...
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: November 24, 2020 at 08:42 AM (#5990944)
I have no idea why the Dodgers would give up anything of value for him, in lieu of his contract. Which, if true, makes it hard to see how the Rockies would accept nothing for him? It's a bad situation, all the more awkward when he doesn't opt out...
It's not that bad a situation for the Rockies. They have a homegrown superstar under contract. It may be a slightly inefficient contract, but it's not some albatross. If he's good enough in 2021 to opt out and he leaves, well at least they got to enjoy one more good year out of him and maybe even a winning season.
   23. TomH Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5990946)
#20; OPS+ is a great metric. But so is "plate appearances" or "time spent injured". Health is a skill, and Mr Arenado has had much more of that skill in his career than Mr Seager.
   24. Jack Sommers Posted: November 26, 2020 at 12:09 AM (#5991228)
Certainly, I get that Tom. But Seager, as I mentioned, is 3 years younger. I think that balances out the "health gap"



   25. puck Posted: November 26, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5991251)
I have no idea why the Dodgers would give up anything of value for him, in lieu of his contract. Which, if true, makes it hard to see how the Rockies would accept nothing for him? It's a bad situation, all the more awkward when he doesn't opt out...


I have no idea if the Rockies really want to move Arenado, but with the contract, it won't be good. I guess it would be like the Tulo trade where the Rockies took a contract coming back (Jose Reyes) to get some prospects (recently-traded Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco, only Tinoco had positive WAR w/0.5). The Rockies also sent LaTroy Hawkins in the trade.

I'd have to think Arenado has more left than Tulo but it's hard to see the Rockies taking David Price back in a trade. The Dodgers don't seem to have many bad contacts otherwise.

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