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Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Astros Gauging Trade Interest In Carlos Correa

The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa’s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.

The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency.  Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 24, 2020 at 12:57 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carlos correa

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   1. JRVJ Posted: November 24, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5990973)
It's pretty clear that Houston has to reload, what with the aging of its stars, Verlander's injury and the loss of draft picks after the sign-stealing scandal.

It's a shame, but that's how it goes. However, I don't know that they'll get as much as they want for Correa.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 24, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5990975)
Correa has really stagnated. 110 OPS+ for 2018-20 and lots of missed time. He's gone from budding super-star to pretty good and fragile.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: November 24, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5990991)
But trading away 1 year of a 26-yo SS is a funny way to rebuild for the future. Bregman is the major asset so if the goal is a full re-tooling, he's the one to trade. Alvarez is also a big asset but still super-cheap -- it would be interesting to see what prospects a player like that would bring in return, would need to be something like an A-ball Gleyber Torres type to make sense for either team. If they're hoping to rebuild on the fly then it's fine to dangle him but generally in that case you might as well make one last run with him.

Beyond a one-year run in 2021, the main impetus to acquire Correa would be a belief that you can jump the 2022 SS market (and the future CBA) and get him wrapped up now. But the price would have to be "reasonable" (whatever that looks like these days), otherwise you might as well hope the 2022 supply outstrips the demand. And of course with at least Lindor also on the trading block, the supply for a one-year solution is also pretty high at the moment so it's not clear the Astros can drive up the price here.

Snapper's right that there's been a drop, maybe temporary due to the injuries, maybe permanent due to the piling up of injuries, but still a 5 WAR/650 player for 2018-20. Statcast pretty much agrees with Rfield in this case (he's become a top defensive SS apparently) but you could still dock him down to about 4.5/650. Of course getting him to 650 PA is the tricky part. I can see why a team acquiring him might mainly be interested in just 2022, get him in-house, see if you can keep him healthy, get some insight into his personality and then decide if you want him long-term.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 24, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5990994)
Let me add that Correa is shaping up as one of the top "what might have been" stories of baseball. I think his excellence was really overlooked. For ages 20-22, he averaged 7.6 WAR/650. ARod 20-22 averaged 7.5; Ripken 21-23 averaged 7.1. Nomar didn't even land a starting job until 23 and then averaged 6.7 for 23-25. Lindor averaged "just" 5.3 for 21-23. Correa was off to one of the greatest (rate) starts for a SS in the last 50+ years.
   5. Astroenteritis Posted: November 24, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5991034)
It's pretty much been known for some time that Correa won't sign an extension or remain with the club after 2021, so it's not surprising that the team would look into a trade. He's an interesting case. When healthy he's very valuable, but the injuries have been a problem. As a fan I'd love to see Houston find a way to keep him long term, but that's not going to happen.
   6. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 24, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5991038)
How much should his playoff performance in 2020 affect how people view him? Adding his postseason to his regular season stats, we get something like .280/.330/.470 and something like a 120 OPS+. That's really good for a good defensive SS about to enter his prime potentially.
   7. puck Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5991042)
I think his excellence was really overlooked.


Snapper noted his excellence and dropoff in comment #2.
   8. puck Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5991043)
It's pretty much been known for some time that Correa won't sign an extension or remain with the club after 2021


How come? Do you mean he always seemed headed for free agency and the largest contract?
   9. puck Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:46 PM (#5991047)
So of the shortstops who will be FA-eligible after 2021, who's the best risk on a long term deal?

Trevor Story is pretty healthy, will be in his age 29 year. Though using the established BBTF scale of "True talent projection for an ex Rockie = road stats," he doesn't come out so great.

I keep forgetting all the other guys. Correa, Lindor, Baez, Seager? That's quite a group.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:23 AM (#5991060)
Snapper noted his excellence and dropoff in comment #2.

I didn't mean overlooked in the last 12 hours.

Correa was widely recognized as an "excellent player." Correw was not widely recognized around here as "holy ####, he's producing at an ARod pace." This of course is partly the bad luck of overlapping with Trout and Betts but my impression is that he had less buzz around here and generally than, say, Bryant and than Acuna and Soto are getting now. I've probably said more about Lindor than Correa.
   11. sunday silence (again) Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:28 AM (#5991061)
Statcast pretty much agrees with Rfield in this case (he's become a top defensive SS apparently)


This page of statcast shows him at league average in terms of OAA and runs prevented:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=2020&team;=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles;=&viz=show
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 25, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5991072)

Correa was widely recognized as an "excellent player." Correw was not widely recognized around here as "holy ####, he's producing at an ARod pace." This of course is partly the bad luck of overlapping with Trout and Betts but my impression is that he had less buzz around here and generally than, say, Bryant and than Acuna and Soto are getting now. I've probably said more about Lindor than Correa.


Well, part of that is, even when he was great, he couldn't stay on the damn field. Dude has one season over 110 G in his career, and that was the worst of his first three seasons. His season totals never really popped. He may have been producing at an ARod rate, but he never had a huge season that would make people stand up and notice.
   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 25, 2020 at 10:52 AM (#5991078)
He may have been producing at an ARod rate, but he never had a huge season that would make people stand up and notice.
Also, not a centaur.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 25, 2020 at 11:50 AM (#5991091)
Also, not a centaur.

To be fair, we didn't know that until late in ARod's career. When he was 26 he wasn't a known centaur.
   15. Astroenteritis Posted: November 25, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5991181)
How come? Do you mean he always seemed headed for free agency and the largest contract?


Oh, the feeling with Astros fans is that he definitely wants to test free agency, and that not only will the Astros not make him "an offer he can't refuse", but that he actually wants to play elsewhere. I think his injury history is the only thing that provides a slim chance the Astros could keep him.

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