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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Astros land Greinke from DBack at deadline

HOU: Zack Grienke, $24MM
ARI: Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, Josh Rojas

That’s a haul.  Beer could be a star, Martin looks like a decent mid-rotation guy, Bukauskas is K’ing more than 10/9 (albeit in AA), Rojas is a flier who is killing it this year.  This is how you restock a farm system.

Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: July 31, 2019 at 05:55 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, diamondbacks, prospects, trade deadline, trades, zack greinke

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   1. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: August 01, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5867272)
I said in some other thread that I like this deal for both teams, and I'm standing by it. Greinke obviously helps the Astros, and they could afford the cost of dealing for him. They've got a good and deep farm system. Beer looks like a potential star to me, and he's still only their third-rated prospect. (Although Forrest Whitley has got to get his **** together in a hurry.) They're making a big move for the present, but, unlike most such moves, it doesn't really require mortgaging the future. This kind of trade is an excellent idea for them.

And it's also great for the DBacks. In addition to Beer, Corbin also looks like he'll be a good major league player. I'd say that he has a high floor, even if the ceiling isn't ace-level pitcher. The other two are less promising, but both have a shot. Most teams have relatively few guys on the farm who have a real shot at a significant major league career, and the DBacks just picked up four of them. Walt is always going on about how the out years on a FA contract are really just deferred compensation from the beginning, and he's right about that. So while getting a bunch of decent prospects, the DBacks also got out of the end of Greinke's contract. Not for free, it's true, but there's real savings there, and so they may have the resources to sign the next Grienke once Beer and friends grow up and are ready to contribute at the ML level. Just good job all around, I love this trade from everybody's perspective.
   2. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:05 AM (#5867298)
Contrarian counterpoint: Houston is 8 games up in its division and the playoffs are random. Greinke is a pure luxury buy for them, unlikely to meaningfully move the needle on their chances of winning a championship. It does provide insurance against injury to one of their existing starters, but that's some damn expensive insurance.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5867305)
Contrarian counterpoint: Houston is 8 games up in its division and the playoffs are random. Greinke is a pure luxury buy for them, unlikely to meaningfully move the needle on their chances of winning a championship.
But they are currently in a 5-way tie for the division in 2020 and 2021...
   4. SoSH U at work Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5867313)
Contrarian counterpoint: Houston is 8 games up in its division and the playoffs are random


They're not totally random. Being the best helps.

Since the move to the second wild card, the best team in its league has won the title 4 out of 7 times (and 3 times the team with the best record in baseball), and the only team in the last four years to defy that was the Astros, who clearly were the best team in the AL.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5867326)
Since the move to the second wild card, the best team in its league has won the title 4 out of 7 times (and 3 times the team with the best record in baseball), and the only team in the last four years to defy that was the Astros, who clearly were the best team in the AL.

But in the 7 years before that we had WS Champs with 90, 92, 92, and 83 wins, and only one was a WC.
   6. rconn23 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5867347)
Yes, the playoffs are a small sample size and the best team doesn't always win. But if I'm a GM and ownership, I wanna give my team the best chance to win. The Astros front office did that. I'll take my chances with three No. 1 starters.

   7. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5867352)
The most (only) disappointing part of this trade to me is that Greinke will no longer get to hit...
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5867360)
But in the 7 years before that we had WS Champs with 90, 92, 92, and 83 wins, and only one was a WC.


I'm not saying there's no randomness, just that the degree to which the playoffs are random is often overstated. Being the best team gives you a leg up. And now, with the second wild card, it may very well be more difficult to go from runner-up to series winner (the Giants are Royals in 14 are the only wild card teams who've made it since the switch, after nine got there in the first 17 years).
   9. Zonk didn't order a hit on an ambassador Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5867363)
I really like Seth Beer - and I agree that this is an outstanding haul for the snakes... Nico Hoerner has been fine for the Cubs, but when Beer fell that far - he was the guy I *really* wanted them to jump on.... and not just for the T-shirts and memes. He is, quite appropriately - a beer league softball player approximate... limited to LF/1B, but he can hit.

Really nice deal for Arizona.

   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:46 PM (#5867368)
I'm not saying there's no randomness, just that the degree to which the playoffs are random is often overstated. Being the best team gives you a leg up. And now, with the second wild card, it may very well be more difficult to go from runner-up to series winner (the Giants are Royals in 14 are the only wild card teams who've made it since the switch, after nine got there in the first 17 years).

It's more difficult for any one WC team, but in aggregate, it should be similar. Maybe a little harder b/c a slightly worse team may advance to the DS.

From the point of view of the division winner, it doesn't matter whether there is one WC, a play-in game, or a 8 team round robin for the spot.
   11. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:46 PM (#5867369)
Conventional Wisdom: Teams won't take on big long term salaries at the trade deadline.
Astros: Hold my Beer.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5867374)
It's more difficult for any one WC team, but in aggregate, it should be similar. Maybe a little harder b/c a slightly worse team may advance to the DS.


That's pretty minor. More important, the team that advances from the WC round will have typically burned its best starter in the WC game, making him available for only one game in the division series round. That's where the real effect would be.



From the point of view of the division winner, it doesn't matter whether there is one WC, a play-in game, or a 8 team round robin for the spot.


Not quite true. If it's a little more difficult for the WC to go all the way, then it has to be a little easier for a division winner (with the team with the best record most likely to benefit).

Obviously, it's way too early to tell, but it's worth following.
   13. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5867378)
The most (only) disappointing part of this trade to me is that Greinke will no longer get to hit...

...until the World Series.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5867384)
Not only that, but the team that advances from the WC round will have often burned its best starter in the WC game, making him available for only one game in the division series round. That's where the real effect would be.

As SP innings shrink, this seems less of an issue. Your #1 SP can probably give you 75 pitches in the WC game, and another 75 in G2 of the ALDS.

It's probably time to ditch the idea of a true SP in the playoffs. Unless I've got Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom, I'd probably have my starters throw 3-4 IP every 3rd day. Not necessarily at the start of the game either.
   15. SoSH U at work Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5867392)
As SP innings shrink, this seems less of an issue.


We'll see. Starting pitchers this year are outperforming relievers in ERA, last I checked. I think the rush to further reduce IP for your best pitchers may be running its course.

Unless I've got Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom,


Either of whom could win a WC game this year.

And you're being silly fighting this. Playing an extra game two days earlier, when you're going to be employing your best pitcher(s), is going to be a disadvantage in the subsequent series. It's simply a matter of degree.

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