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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, August 03, 2007Athletics Nation: Nico: The Myth Of The 9 HattebergsWooosh…Sounds like a solid out-take from “The Marble Index.”
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1. mgl Posted: August 03, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2470036)And I don't get the nastiness some people are exhibiting. Disagree with it -- fine, but I very much doubt Nico is an "idiot".
Well, he uses everything except facts to make his point.
How is that different than any of Plaschke, Simers, Lupica, Mariotti, Jenkins, BASN, and untold numbers of other columns linked here every day?
Actually, I take that back - BASN uses lots of facts. They just show an utter lack of logic.
I never said he shouldn't be linked, or that it's different, but it's hard to have a good analysis without facts when facts are readily available.
Not to mention that the analysis itself has gaping holes in it.
Not to mention that the analysis itself has gaping holes in it.
I'm not saying that you are wrong. It just seems as if we have had a ton of "why is this even linked here" posts lately, as if anything that isn't at least 95% statistically sound analysis doesn't deserve to make it onto BTF. I think that pointing out bad analysis and submitting it to the rigor, if you will, of BTF isn't a bad idea, especially as the readership of BTF doesn't all date from pre-registration days.
Plus, BASN stuff is funny.
Of course. Bases loaded? They could score in any number of ways. The article may as well say "3B, BB, BB" doesn't score anyone if the next three guys pop up or strike out." That may be true in a given inning, but over a bigger sample size, distributions aren't going to occur in the worst possible way all the time.
The article implies that 1B, steal second, grounder to the right side (runner advances to third), sac fly is going to happen because the mixed hitter profiles are going to ensure the better outcome distribution. Instead, you are as likely to get K, BB, steal second, grounder to right side (runner advances), groundout, inning over. Or 2B from good SLG bad OBP guy, out, out, out, inning over. Except everyone remembers bunt hit, steal, grounder to the right, sac fly as being "smart baseball." I'm looking at you Hawk Harrelson. It isn't memorable when it turns out bunt out, groundout, flyout.
The Devil Rays have a .334 OBP and a .432 SLG. They've scored 4.66 rpg.
The Indians have a .346 OBP and a .436 SLG. They've scored 5.21 rpg.
Offhand, it looks like (roughly) 12 points of OBP, given (approximately) a .430 SLG, is worth roughly half a run per game. Which would imply that a team of Hattebergs would score around one run more per game than the Indians. That'd put them at 6.21 runs scored per game, which would give them more than 1000 runs scored for the season. Feel free to dock the team 100 runs for baserunning (which seems a bit much), and you STILL end up with a top offensive team.
Yeah, I'd hate to have my shortstop, second baseman, catcher, bench, et al. hitting like Scott Hatteberg...
roughly average hitters at 1B, LF, RF and DH
good hitters at 2B, 3B and CF
excellent hitters at C and SS
Or to put it another way, if you had a lineup of 8 Hattebergs and needed a 1B, you could do a lot better than Hatteberg. If the rest of your lineup is not as good as 8 Hattebergs, bragging about how good 9 Hattebergs would be seems odd. And a picky person might point out that the A's haven't had a whole lot of C, 2B and SS who hit like Hatteberg on a consistent basis.
But more importantly, a team that averaged Hatteberg's numbers would have to have a lineup substantially better than 9 Hattebergs or the greatest bench in MLB history. The bench is gonna get, what, 1000-1200 PA a year usually. So to have a lineup that produces like 9 Hattebergs, you're gonna need 13-15 of them.
Barring this great bench, that means you need a lineup substantially better than 9 Hattebergs to top 950-1000 runs ... and such a lineup is likely to feature a 1B much better than Hatteberg.
According to B-Pro, the leaders in RS-EQR:
Red Sox -39
Devil Rays -36
Athletics -31
Mets -22
Orioles -21
Phillies -20
Marlins -19
Royals +38
Pirates +23
Mariners +22
Padres +21
Giants +14
White Sox +12
While his facts are wrong, the A's do "look" like they constantly get people on base and fail to run the bases aggressively, hit in the clutch, or hit with any power. Rather than take solace in the fact that the A's are at least getting men on in the first place, Nico's ready to jettison the Hatteberg plan and go with 9 Jay Paytons. Not rigorous analysis, but I can understand, and share, the frustration.
Seems to me that the first list is dominated by good offensive teams, while the second list is dominated by bad offensive teams. Does EQR begin to fail out towards the ends of the bell curves? (Not, of course, that this explains the A's, being a genuinely bad-to-mediocre offensive team that is also failing to score runs at the expected pace...)
I think his one interesting hypothesis (and it can't be called anything more than that, since he didn't do any research) is that a line-up without diversity--even if the lineup is full of good hitters--can have a tendancy to get completely shut down more often than a line-up with different types of hitters. And I think that makes sense.
I tested a similar hypothesis using standard deviation in RS and RA, and found that while it affects record as compared to pythag record, it is not that big an effect overall. As far as how that affects RS, it would be balanced by getting tons of runs as well.
I looked for differences between pythag records and actual records and comparing it to standard deviation in RS and RA per game. The effect was small, but there. I don't have the skill to give a number, but I'd estimate that it wouldn't account for more than a few games a year, even given extreme cases.
No matter who your team is or what situation they're in (other than a 10+ run blowout), I can't imagine a sequence more likely to arouse a game broadcaster.
Off-topic a bit, I know that Hatteberg used to catch for Boston. Is he physically prevented from doing this for the A's?
Yes, for a couple of reasons.
1) The Reds probably would get upset.
2) He had shoulder surgery way back and simply can't throw. When he was with the A's other teams stole bases by just taking off for second, and then the pitcher would throw to Hatteberg, who could never, ever, get the ball to second in time for an out.
You seemed a little too eager to make that accusation. I smell a werewolf!
Of course, it's pretty easy to read the comments in the book as a way of illustrating that Hatteberg, who might have been considered quite marginal as a player, has some value.
THAT'S WEREWOLF TALK
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