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Monday, October 18, 2021

Baseball America: Was The 2020 Rule 5 MLB Draft The Best Of The 21st Century?

That group makes a strong case. So far, 11 of the 18 players selected in last December’s Rule 5 draft have stuck with their MLB teams. Nine of them have fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements—they were carried on an MLB roster without being optioned for a full season with at least half of that season on the active roster. Another two (Jose Soriano and Dedniel Nunez) spent the entire season on the injured list and still need to spend half a season on the active roster.

Only 34% of Rule 5 draft picks this century have fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements with their new teams. In the 2020 class, 50% of the picks have already done so, with a chance to see that number grow to 61% in the future. The 2001 (50%) and 2014 (71%) drafts are the only other Rule 5 classes this century to see half of the players or more stick with their new club.

The nine players who have fulfilled the roster requirements also makes this the third-largest class of players who stuck this century, topped only by 2014 (10) and 2002 (11). If Soriano and Nunez both do go on to meet the requirements, it will equal 2002’s mark.

But it’s not just the number of players who stuck around. This class has also been impactful.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 18, 2021 at 11:23 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: akil baddoo, garrett whitlock, rule 5 draft

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: October 18, 2021 at 03:46 PM (#6047212)
Josh Hamilton and Joakim Soria were taken the same year. It would take a lot of value to equal just those 2.
   2. BDC Posted: October 18, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#6047226)
The best players on the Rangers this year (Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia) were not good enough to stay on their previous teams (TB and STL), but I guess neither were Rule 5s. (Lowe was traded for and Garcia "purchased," quaint concept.)

The Rangers' actual Rule 5 guy this year, pitcher Brett de Geus, had a pretty rough first half, and was acquired by Arizona, where he had a pretty rough second half.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: October 18, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6047227)
Only 34% of Rule 5 draft picks this century have fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements with their new teams.

I'm surprised it's that high.

Josh Hamilton

Does he technically count? He was drafted by the Cubs then sold to the Reds ... which counts as his "new team" for rule 5 purposes? (I'm 100% fine with counting him, just saying he might have gotten missed in this exercise.)
   4. Eddie Gaedel Posted: October 18, 2021 at 05:14 PM (#6047239)
@1, agreed, though Shane Victorino (Rule V pick in 2002) and Jose Bautista (2003) have more career bWAR than Hamilton, 31.5 & 36.7 to 28.2.

Johan Santana (51.5 bWAR) just misses the cut, drafted in 1999 but debuted in 2000.

I guess if you measure success by "number of players sticking with the drafting team," or even "number of Rule V draftees who acquire enough service time to reach arbitration," 2020 might compete.

But I'd rather have a single Santana (or Bautista or Victorino or Hamilton) than 10 dudes who simply played well enough to not be returned to their original teams.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: October 18, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6047244)
But I'd rather have a single Santana (or Bautista or Victorino or Hamilton) than 10 dudes who simply played well enough to not be returned to their original teams.


But they're not all equal. Bautista had to cycle through about five more teams before he was any good, so it's not like the O's struck paydirt. Santana, Victorino and Soria were obvious hits, and Hamilton kind of is (he showed enough in his year in Cincy; they just didn't get as much in return for him in the subsequent trade they would have liked).

   6. Walt Davis Posted: October 18, 2021 at 07:35 PM (#6047260)
Let's see. No surprise it's nearly all pitchers. If you're going through 30 of them anyway, not that hard to carry a guy all year especially if you can hide him on the IL for up to half of it. But very little obvious impact here -- Whitlock certainly looks like the best, Baddoo looks fine if inconsistent, a couple of other pen arms. Of course doesn't mean one of these guys won't turn into the next Santana 4 years from now.

Soriano -- injured

DeGeus -- stuck with Rangers, waived him (I think that's step 1 of giving him back), grabbed by DBacks. Pitched terribly, -1.7 WAR in 50 innings.

The Amazing Baddoo -- 2.1 WAR

Whitlock -- 2.9 WAR, strong peripherals

Sceroler -- returned after pitching terribly in 8 IP

Zach Pop -- great name! Drafted by DBacks, traded to Marlins immediately, 0.1 WAR in 55 IP

Jo Sheffield -- 0.6 WAR in 29 IP but questionable peripherals

Jose Rivera -- looks like he was returned

Oviedo -- drafted by Mets, sold to Pirates same day, -1 WAR in 30 IP

Vest -- returned after pitching terribly, -0.7 WAR in 35 IP

Kyle Holder -- returned

Nunez -- injured I think

Paul Campbell -- -1 WAR in 27 IP

Fenter -- returned

Stephan -- 0.5 WAR in 63 IP, HR-happy

Ka'ai Tom -- 1 for 16 in Oak, waived and grabbed by Pirates, 58 OPS+ there, released, apparently the Indians didn't want him back, signed as FA with Giants

Tyler Wells -- 1 WAR in 57 IP

Dany Jimenez -- returned
   7. Where have you gone Brady Anderson? Posted: October 18, 2021 at 07:55 PM (#6047263)
Could the high percentage of players kept this year have to do with tanking? It's hard to keep a rule five pick when you are trying to compete unless you get a legitimate good player (like Garrett Whitlock). If you're not going to be competitive, it's a lot easier to keep a bad player in the hope he will be useful in future seasons.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 18, 2021 at 09:30 PM (#6047308)

Teams also had an extra roster spot -- starting last year, active rosters went from 25 to 26 players.
   9. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 18, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6047311)
Does he technically count? He was drafted by the Cubs then sold to the Reds ... which counts as his "new team" for rule 5 purposes? (I'm 100% fine with counting him, just saying he might have gotten missed in this exercise.)

should it count? absolutely 100%. did it count in this specific exercise? no idea. i didn't rtfa.

fwiw, the phillies also cut victorino coming out of spring training the year they took him in the rule 5 draft. he passed through waivers, which meant that he was offered back to the dodgers, who declined their option to pay 25K to get him back.
   10. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:30 AM (#6047365)
Biases alert: I am a Red Sox fan, and recency bias makes answering this question a little tougher, but:

Is Whitlock the greatest Rule V impact guy in history, in the spirit of what is meant by "Rule V"? I mean, this is a team that was expected to be around .500 after being one of the worst teams last year, and was in the early part of a rebuild...and now they are two wins from the World Series...and Whitlock has probably been their second-best pitcher, start-to-finish (after Eovaldi). He's a Rule V guy who is being used in the biggest games, at the highest-leverage moments, and is nearly always coming through with overpowering stuff. There's no fluke: he is really good.

So, in terms of Rule V guys who ended up playing a lot *that season*, and ended up being huge parts of teams playing deep into the playoffs, is there any example that is like Whitlock?
   11. SoSH U at work Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:53 AM (#6047386)
Is Whitlock the greatest Rule V impact guy in history, in the spirit of what is meant by "Rule V"?


What spirit is that? That the impact can only be felt in the season he was picked up and only if the team had a good playoff run? I suppose under those narrow parameters, it's possible. I think I'd still give history's greatest impact to Roberto Clemente, but I guess Whitlock is a close second.

   12. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: October 19, 2021 at 12:25 PM (#6047426)
SoSH: I realize how clunky my wording was...I meant, which Rule V pickup had the most direct impact on a pennant race or playoff team the year they were the Rule V pick?
   13. SoSH U at work Posted: October 19, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6047504)

SoSH: I realize how clunky my wording was...I meant, which Rule V pickup had the most direct impact on a pennant race or playoff team the year they were the Rule V pick?


I understood. And it's certainly possible that no one else really fits that particular bill as well as Whitlock does. It's just a little narrowly drawn for me.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:06 PM (#6047548)
I don't think he's been mentioned yet but another big-name rule 5 guy was George Bell ... I always think it was Lloyd Moseby but, surely not for the first time, it turns out to be Bell. He was grabbed for the 81 season, didn't have any impact until 1984. Willie Upshaw was another guy the Jays grabbed in the rule 5 way back in 77, had one good year and a few solid ones. Somebody on the Jays knew what they were doing. :-)
   15. Rough Carrigan Posted: October 20, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6047749)
Roberto Clemente was a rule 5 acquisition by the Pirates from the Dodger system.

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