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Monday, December 12, 2022

Baseball Hall of Fame tracker 2023

Baldrick Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:22 AM | 748 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   101. alilisd Posted: December 14, 2022 at 10:55 AM (#6109476)
Some guy just submitted his ballot which dropped A Rodriguez and added F Rodriguez. Must be a mistake, right?


Who knows? Take a look at the ballot by Sadiel Lebron. He adds Buerhle, Kent, Vizquel and Wagner while dropping Ramirez, but keeping Abreu, Helton, Jones, Pettitte and Rolen. But that's only 9, you say, and he voted for 10, well he also voted for K-Rod, so apparently K-Rod > Manny Ramirez, as are Vizquel and Wagner. Maybe? Who the #### knows! There's simply no logic to some ballots, IMO.
   102. alilisd Posted: December 14, 2022 at 10:57 AM (#6109477)
@ 100, Duke, you didn't say it was also a one person ballot only voting for K-Rod. Sounds like a "Look At Me" ballot for sure.
   103. Booey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6109479)
Take a look at the ballot by Sadiel Lebron.....There's simply no logic to some ballots


So you're saying that LeBron should shut up and dribble? ;-)
   104. cardsfanboy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 01:13 PM (#6109503)
Who knows? Take a look at the ballot by Sadiel Lebron. He adds Buerhle, Kent, Vizquel and Wagner while dropping Ramirez, but keeping Abreu, Helton, Jones, Pettitte and Rolen. But that's only 9, you say, and he voted for 10, well he also voted for K-Rod, so apparently K-Rod > Manny Ramirez, as are Vizquel and Wagner. Maybe? Who the #### knows! There's simply no logic to some ballots, IMO.


As I like to point out, there is no rule you have to vote for the ten best candidates, if you have a 10 man ballot, then you put your choice of ten. It's when they don't use ten spots and vote for someone like Vizquel over a Rolen or Ramirez that I question their ballots.
   105. alilisd Posted: December 14, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6109515)
So you're saying that LeBron should shut up and dribble? ;-)


Definitely :-)
   106. alilisd Posted: December 14, 2022 at 02:28 PM (#6109516)
As I like to point out, there is no rule you have to vote for the ten best candidates, if you have a 10 man ballot, then you put your choice of ten. It's when they don't use ten spots and vote for someone like Vizquel over a Rolen or Ramirez that I question their ballots.


The primary criteria for voting is the players record and playing ability. Then there's some mumbo jumbo about sportsmanship and character, and then it's back to contribution to their teams. In other words it starts and ends with their baseball skills and performance. That's pretty much a "rule you have to vote for the ten best candidates." You can choose to ignore that if you like, but it's clear to me what the intent is, and that is to elect the best baseball players. If you have a limit of 10 slots, you should vote for the 10 best. I would grant strategic voting could be in play during some recent years, but generally speaking it's vote for the best guys on the ballot.
   107. TJ Posted: December 14, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6109517)
Duke, you didn't say it was also a one person ballot only voting for K-Rod. Sounds like a "Look At Me" ballot for sure.


If BBWAA members are going to apply "integrity" to HOF candidates, why won't those members do the same to their own colleagues who cast ballots like this?
   108. cardsfanboy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6109521)
That's pretty much a "rule you have to vote for the ten best candidates."


No it isn't, it's a rule you have to vote for candidates you feel are hof worthy, if you think that there are 12 worthy candidates, then you can choose which 10 to vote for, regardless of your ranking of their hof worthiness. nothing implies in the rules you have to vote for the best candidates, just worthy candidates.
   109. Adam Starblind Posted: December 14, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6109541)
If BBWAA members are going to apply "integrity" to HOF candidates, why won't those members do the same to their own colleagues who cast ballots like this?


Also, K-Rod beat up his father-in-law at Citi Field.
   110. Booey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 07:32 PM (#6109557)
But if we don't elect K-Rod, the 2002 Angels will have no HOF representation! All championship teams deserve at least one HOFer!
   111. alilisd Posted: December 14, 2022 at 07:40 PM (#6109559)
No it isn't, it's a rule you have to vote for candidates you feel are hof worthy, if you think that there are 12 worthy candidates, then you can choose which 10 to vote for, regardless of your ranking of their hof worthiness.


Ok, so last year he thought Bonds and Vizquel were no longer worthy, but Abreu became worthy in year 3. Now this year Vizquel is worthy again, but Ramirez isn't and now Buerhle, Kent and Wagner are. But he voted for 10 so it doesn't matter, it's all good. Right? Got it. :-)
   112. The Duke Posted: December 14, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6109566)
This year is interesting because there are so many paths to choose. There's no longer an obvious ten and for many voters there isn't even an obvious 1 or 2. Can't get any clarity on Rolen yet but it does appear a few guys are going to pop and we are going to have a bunch of guys in the 30s to 50s range with no hope of 75 and a couple guys like Rolen and Helton who may or may not ever reach 75 but will get mighty close.

And then some new guys will join and the discussion will change back to the "obvious" guys. Beltre, mauer,ichiro, sabathia,utley, posey,Lester?, Molina and Pujols.

There's also a ton of guys who will get votes and siphon votes away from the current HOVG crop.
   113. Adam Starblind Posted: December 14, 2022 at 08:49 PM (#6109569)
Mauer could take a while. Lester will probably be one and done. Utley will be an interesting case.
   114. Booey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6109578)
Mauer's got the best case of the 3 catchers, IMO (although the lack of rings might hurt him in comparison). I could see any of Mauer, Posey, or Molina getting elected first ballot, or of taking several years to get in. Lotta potential variance in their election trajectories.
   115. The Duke Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:02 AM (#6109595)
I think Lester will do well. The standards for starting pitching are dropping to the point where Buerhle is picking up votes now. Lester will not ne one and done. Being the key guy on two World Series teams has to help. I expect he will be on ballot for his whole ten year span and that his value will increase as current starters go shorter and shorter in games.
   116. The Duke Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:07 AM (#6109596)
Wagner, helton and Sheffield have picked up a big slug of votes with only 16 ballots in. The ballots that have been submitted mostly were prior Rolen voters so it's hard to tell if he will pick up the necessary votes.
   117. John DiFool2 Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:13 AM (#6109597)
But if we don't elect K-Rod, the 2002 Angels will have no HOF representation! All championship teams deserve at least one HOFer!


Not to worry, the next VC will undoubtedly elect Tim Salmon. After all, he never smoke, drank, or did drugs, never hit his wife or kids or had affairs, always went to church on time, and regularly volunteered to help starving orphans and abandoned puppy dogs. As far as the HoF is concerned anymore, that is all they need to know.
   118. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6109601)
Wagner, helton and Sheffield have picked up a big slug of votes with only 16 ballots in. The ballots that have been submitted mostly were prior Rolen voters so it's hard to tell if he will pick up the necessary votes.

I could see Helton making a lot of gains. He picked up 7% to finish with 52% last year, his 4th, so he's at that sweet spot where voters will take a harder look and try to sift through the Coors numbers. He should benefit from more oxygen in the room with Bonds, Clemens and Schilling leaving the ballot.

Helton has a gain of 5 votes already (after a net 20 gain last year). Interesting that Helton has picked up 5 while Andruw has only gained 1.
   119. taxandbeerguy Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6109605)
@118 - To be fair Jones and Helton were added by Sean Forman, the other 4 Helton adds already all had Andruw
   120. Booey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:47 AM (#6109613)
I think Lester will do well. The standards for starting pitching are dropping to the point where Buerhle is picking up votes now. Lester will not ne one and done. Being the key guy on two World Series teams has to help. I expect he will be on ballot for his whole ten year span and that his value will increase as current starters go shorter and shorter in games.


I don't know; I think Buehrle (59 WAR) is being kept alive by the more SABR inclined voters. Lester (43 WAR) won't get the same support from them. Tim Hudson (58 WAR) was a better pitcher than Lester and barely missed being one and done, and then was gone after his second ballot.

Standards for starting pitchers will indeed need to drop, but I think it's jumping the gun a bit regarding Lester specifically. He debuted in 2006, just 5 years after Sabathia, 2 years after Greinke, 1 year after Verlander, and 2 years before Kershaw and Scherzer. IOW, at a time when it was still possible for starters to put up "traditional" HOF numbers. He's going to be compared to those 5 and found lacking (Lester is pretty similar to Adam Wainwright, actually). For the pitchers who came after the Sabathia/Greinke/Verlander/Kershaw/Scherzer group - the guys who debuted in the 2010's (Sale, deGrom, etc) - yes, they'll certainly need to be evaluated under a different lens.
   121. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 15, 2022 at 12:59 PM (#6109620)
Not to worry, the next VC will undoubtedly elect Tim Salmon. After all, he never smoke, drank, or did drugs, never hit his wife or kids or had affairs, always went to church on time, and regularly volunteered to help starving orphans and abandoned puppy dogs. As far as the HoF is concerned anymore, that is all they need to know.


Nah, it'll be Eckstein and his Grit factor. Actually, if you had to pick a 2002 Angel, Appier would actually make a better candidate than Salmon, Glaus or Lackey.
   122. Karl from NY Posted: December 15, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6109639)
Mauer's got the best case of the 3 catchers, IMO (although the lack of rings might hurt him in comparison). I could see any of Mauer, Posey, or Molina getting elected first ballot, or of taking several years to get in. Lotta potential variance in their election trajectories.

Mauer will get votes easily. He's exactly the sort of case the writers will want to vote for and will find reasons to. Likeable single-team guy with standout peak stats that made for easy stories, that's about as gift-wrapped for the writers as you can get (minus a title.) They won't care about the short-ish career or that half of it wasn't at catcher. First-ballot is a stretch, but I'd put the over-under at his 4th ballot year.
   123. oscar madisox Posted: December 15, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6109641)
But if we don't elect K-Rod, the 2002 Angels will have no HOF representation! All championship teams deserve at least one HOFer!


The best candidate from the 2002 Angels is probably their manager.
   124. Booey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 03:39 PM (#6109642)
#122 - Yeah. Me saying it might take "several" years was a little vague. I think all 3 of the catchers will be elected within 3-4 ballots.
   125. Booey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6109645)
#123 - Yeah, but that doesn't count. Ditto with Lasorda on the 1981 Dodgers.

For me the most surprising recent championship team without a likely HOFer is the 2016 Cubs. At the time they felt stacked with great young talent, and it seemed inevitable that at least one of them would go on to have a HOF career. 6 years later, there's no one who looks like they have much of a chance anymore, right? Is Aroldis Chapman and his 26 IP for the Cubs that season their best shot?

Edit: Noting that we already covered Jon Lester earlier
   126. alilisd Posted: December 15, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6109650)
Mauer will get votes easily. He's exactly the sort of case the writers will want to vote for and will find reasons to. Likeable single-team guy with standout peak stats that made for easy stories, that's about as gift-wrapped for the writers as you can get (minus a title.) They won't care about the short-ish career or that half of it wasn't at catcher. First-ballot is a stretch, but I'd put the over-under at his 4th ballot year.


Agree with most of this, but he was actually a catcher for 10 seasons, then 1B/DH for 5, which means even more love should be due him from voters. I guess you could say the last two seasons were more split between C/1B/DH, but all of his peak, the batting titles and the MVP were when his position was primarily catcher. Not saying JAWS is the be all, end all, but he's the only catcher above the average line who is not yet in, and with Simmons finally going in the next four behind him are also in. I would think, especially given the more open/less competitive ballot he'll debut on as well as being the first of these three catchers, that it would be under 4.
   127. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 15, 2022 at 05:10 PM (#6109652)
I think Lester will do well. The standards for starting pitching are dropping to the point where Buerhle is picking up votes now.


Well Buerhle is nearly 60 WAR and has a lot of great narrative. The perfect game, another no-no, great fielder, that holding the running game to like 1 steal a year thing, lead a team to WS, etc.
And for old school voters, the dude pitched 200+ innings every single year(except 198 in his last year). He was very good and very effective for a long time. No negative WAR seasons.

I have no issue with him being elected to the HOF. Lester is no where near a HOFer. Not enough bulk, not good enough peak

Mauer, Posey and Molina will all be elected sometime between years 3 and 7.
   128. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 15, 2022 at 06:10 PM (#6109653)
t the time they felt stacked with great young talent, and it seemed inevitable that at least one of them would go on to have a HOF career.


I'm not claiming to remember for sure, but look at that roster and the only ones I would have rated as having a decent shot were Bryant, Rizzo, and Hendricks. Bryant's the only one whose subsequent career would have surprised me. There's still a chance he can Paul Molitor his way to the Hall, too, so it could happen.
   129. The Duke Posted: December 15, 2022 at 09:15 PM (#6109674)
Contreras is at 21 WAR. You could squint and see him getting into the low 40s which might get him into the conversation. He needs another World Series to give him some heft
   130. Booey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 09:41 PM (#6109678)
Nm
   131. Booey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6109680)
#128 - Baez and Heyward were the others I was thinking of, although BRef just showed me that Baez didn't actually have a star caliber season until 2 years later. Memory is a funny thing sometimes. :-/

Heyward was a legit WAR darling before joining the Cubs though (30 WAR after his age 25 season).
   132. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:25 PM (#6109683)
Memory is a funny thing sometimes. :-/


That it is.

Heyward was a legit WAR darling before joining the Cubs though (30 WAR after his age 25 season).


Here's something I'm 90% I actually do remember from back then: Heyward was kind of a case study in why I did not trust defensive WAR in those days.
   133. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 15, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6109685)
Though of course I would never have predicted Jay-Hey's collapse.

Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez are all still decent players. The thing I wouldn't have predicted is that Bryant & Rizzo had already had their best seasons (which, caveat, caveat, they're still youngish and might surprise us) and Baez would never completely sort himself out as a hitter.
   134. John DiFool2 Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6109717)
Never bet on guys with extreme K>BB ratios to ever "sort it out." I can't think of a single example of one who did.
   135. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6109723)
Never bet on guys with extreme K>BB ratios to ever "sort it out." I can't think of a single example of one who did.

It depends on what you mean by extreme, but Jose Reyes comes to mind. He went from about a 3:1 K:BB in his first few years to get around K:BB parity in several later seasons.

Of course Baez is more extreme - I didn't realize how much so, but in the WS year he had a 7:1. He did get that down some but still, yikes.
   136. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6109729)
Never bet on guys with extreme K>BB ratios to ever "sort it out." I can't think of a single example of one who did.
Sammy Sosa was extreme for his time. Of course, he may have had some “help” in sorting it out.
   137. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6109730)
I'm not claiming to remember for sure, but look at that roster and the only ones I would have rated as having a decent shot were Bryant, Rizzo, and Hendricks. Bryant's the only one whose subsequent career would have surprised me. There's still a chance he can Paul Molitor his way to the Hall, too, so it could happen.

Addison Russell was a top-5 prospect in baseball going into 2015, and was an All-Star in 2016 at age 22. I don't think anyone would haven predicted his on- and off-field issues effectively ending his career a few years later.
   138. Booey Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6109732)
Oh yeah, Russell was another one with high expectations early on, for sure.
   139. alilisd Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6109739)
Sammy Sosa was extreme for his time. Of course, he may have had some “help” in sorting it out.


He is really interesting in this regard. I know what you're implying, of course, but I don't see how AAS usage helped in this way. He set a career high in K's at 28 by a pretty wide margin, but he also had set a career high in BB two years earlier. He then maintains that high K level, but simultaneously hits a new high in BB in each of the next four seasons, and tops 100 again in season five. This seems to me like he wasn't necessarily being pitched around given the still very high number of K's, but he does seem to have developed some better plate discipline, and he was clearly making much better/harder contact.
   140. alilisd Posted: December 16, 2022 at 01:02 PM (#6109741)
#128 - Baez and Heyward were the others I was thinking of, although BRef just showed me that Baez didn't actually have a star caliber season until 2 years later. Memory is a funny thing sometimes. :-/


Indeed it is, but yours may not be that far off. He had call ups in both of the two seasons preceding 2016, a number 1 and top 10 pick by the Cubs, and he was a top 5 prospect in 2014 for both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, number 7 for MLB. He definitely had a lot of hype going in 2016 even if he hadn't yet had a big season, and in many ways he was still a rookie in 2016 although technically having exceeded rookie status in 2014.
   141. SoSH U at work Posted: December 16, 2022 at 01:22 PM (#6109746)
This seems to me like he wasn't necessarily being pitched around given the still very high number of K's,


I don't know that follows. I'm sure he was being pitched around more than he was earlier, but he was no doubt a little better (though not perfect) at laying off the crap than he previously had been.
   142. The Duke Posted: December 16, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6109761)
A lot of really high percentages in the tracker - even Beltran has made a huge comeback. He was 1/8 and now 11/22, so after looming like he was going to have a bad start, he now looks in line to get in over a few years. If this keeps up the vets committee will have a lot to sort through in future years.
   143. DL from MN Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:45 PM (#6109771)
When will they figure out that Mark Buehrle was clearly a better pitcher than Billy Wagner. It's a 2400 inning difference between them. How do they think Wagner would have pitched during the extra 2400 innings teams got out of Mark Buehrle?

Wagner has NO narrative, he was terrible in the playoffs. Postseason WPA of -0.87. In 8 playoff series his team won once. Buehrle wasn't dominant in the postseason but he has a ring and a net positive WPA.
   144. SoSH U at work Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6109774)
Wagner has NO narrative, he was terrible in the playoffs.


In a testament to both how few innings he pitched AND how bad he was in the playoffs, if you roll his postseason numbers into his regular season ones, his career ERA jumps from 2.31 to 2.41.

   145. DL from MN Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6109781)
Whoever is editing Wagner's wiki page must not like him much:

"Following the World Series, Wagner criticized the Astros front office for not building a playoff worthy team. On November 3, Billy Wagner was informed that he had been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies"

"In a May 7, 2006 interview, Wagner stated that he was confronted by all of his former Phillies teammates in September 2005 after he had criticized their performance in the media by repeatedly saying that the Phillies had "no chance" of making the playoffs (which proved accurate, as the Phillies lost out on the playoffs by one game); Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell reported called Wagner a "rat.""

"On May 15, 2008, Wagner issued a tirade full of profanity against his teammates and coaches following the Mets' 1–0 loss in a game against the Washington Nationals."

   146. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:08 PM (#6109827)
Sammy Sosa was extreme for his time. Of course, he may have had some “help” in sorting it out.


He is really interesting in this regard. I know what you're implying, of course, but I don't see how AAS usage helped in this way. He set a career high in K's at 28 by a pretty wide margin, but he also had set a career high in BB two years earlier. He then maintains that high K level, but simultaneously hits a new high in BB in each of the next four seasons, and tops 100 again in season five. This seems to me like he wasn't necessarily being pitched around given the still very high number of K's, but he does seem to have developed some better plate discipline, and he was clearly making much better/harder contact.


The help Sammy got in sorting it out was Jeff Pentland arriving as the Cubs hitting coach in mid-97 and convincing Sammy after the season to rework his hitting approach and reconstruct his swing. Interesting to note that the increases in Sosa's walks through season five mentioned above also coincide with the years Pentland served as the hitting coach (from mid-97 through 2002).
   147. alilisd Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6109828)
I don't know that follows. I'm sure he was being pitched around more than he was earlier, but he was no doubt a little better (though not perfect) at laying off the crap than he previously had been.


I am not certain either. One possible interpretation. I like what Esteban Rivera shared in 146. Sometimes hitting coaches do make a big difference if they connect with the right player.
   148. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:11 PM (#6109833)
Helton is +7 through 22 ballots. 5 of the 7 had 10-player ballots last year, so it seems like he was the 11th man for a lot of voters... but only 22 total ballots out of the 198 in last year's tracker had 10 players without Helton. Still seems like a positive sign for him though.
   149. John DiFool2 Posted: December 17, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6109855)
The rare exceptions don't disprove the general soundness of my rule (3:1 is nothing 5:1 or worse depending on era is what I was alluding to). For every Sammy S there will be 5-10 Shawon Dunstons or Will Middlebrookses.
   150. alilisd Posted: December 17, 2022 at 12:12 PM (#6109863)
When will they figure out that Mark Buehrle was clearly a better pitcher than Billy Wagner. It's a 2400 inning difference between them. How do they think Wagner would have pitched during the extra 2400 innings teams got out of Mark Buehrle?


Well, it's early, but since these 22 voters haven't even figured out Buehrle is clearly better than K-Rod, I'm going to say never.
   151. The Duke Posted: December 18, 2022 at 11:28 AM (#6109988)
7/25 ballots have 4 or less and 7 have 10 names.
   152. Moeball Posted: December 18, 2022 at 10:17 PM (#6110097)
Re: Tim Salmon - well, at least he was significantly better than Baines. Not by a lot in WAR, but his WAA is almost 10x Harold's. For whatever that's worth.
   153. The Duke Posted: December 19, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6110127)
If I'm doing my math right Rolen needs to pick up about 50 votes. He's only picked up 1 of 6 so far. It's still early but that suggests he'll finish well short of the 50 needed. It also suggests, given the weak ballot, that he might not ever be voted in. If not now, when ? It appears that there are lots of guys getting votes across the spectrum. Need another 25-50 votes to confirm.

All of Rolens "fails" are coming from the "small hall" guys who have five or less on their ballot. So, it's still early for Scott.
   154. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6110135)
The early returns are not great for Rolen. But picked up a net 35 votes last year (counting 5 he lost), so it's certainly possible that he makes a run at the ~50 he needs.
   155. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6110137)
It also suggests, given the weak ballot, that he might not ever be voted in. If not now, when ?

He got 63% last year and has 5 more years on the ballot. I'd say if not now, he still has a good shot in the next four years.

That being said, Morris sat in the 60s for a few years but ultimately had to wait for the VC. And we all know about Schilling. So it's not a guarantee.
   156. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6110139)
If I'm doing my math right Rolen needs to pick up about 50 votes. He's only picked up 1 of 6 so far. It's still early but that suggests he'll finish well short of the 50 needed.

Rolen needs to pick up basically 1/3 of the people who didn't vote for him last year. We have a sample size of 6 such people so far and he has missed that mark by... one vote. It is WAY too early for doom and gloom in that regard.

Beltran is interesting so far - his percentage would be respectable for a first-time candidate if it holds up, but his voters have tremendous overlap with Manny and A-Rod (13 of his 15 voters include all 3). My suspicion based on early results is that he might be lumped into the general "cheater" category by the writers.
   157. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6110140)
That being said, Morris sat in the 60s for a few years but ultimately had to wait for the VC. And we all know about Schilling. So it's not a guarantee.

Morris absolutely would have gone in if he hadn't gotten walloped by the ballot crunch; his last two years saw Clemens/Schilling/Maddux/Glavine/Mussina all added to the ballot just among SP. No similar wave of players is inbound currently (though if Rolen misses this year he may have to wait until Beltre goes in).

If Rolen pulls a Schilling, of course, all bets are off.
   158. DL from MN Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6110142)
Helton +9 and Wagner +8 for the Hall of First Basemen and Relief Pitchers
   159. SoSH U at work Posted: December 19, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6110143)
That being said, Morris sat in the 60s for a few years but ultimately had to wait for the VC.


Morris didn't hit 60 percent until his 13th year on the ballot, then, as Eric notes, he was hammered by the loaded class of newcomers in 2013/14. Ordinarily, he would have had a good chance of continuing his climb.

However, I will say Rolen's slow start this year is the first time The Duke's chronic pessimism on his candidacy doesn't feel completely nuts.
   160. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 19, 2022 at 04:09 PM (#6110148)
Remember though: You don't just gain from flipping voters. You gain by getting a higher percentage of 1st time voters and some of your no votes dropping off.

Bonds' numbers went up from 60.7% to 61.8% from 2020 to 2021 despite a net gain of zero returning voters.

Rolen got 86.7% of first-time voters last year and 84.6% in 2021. If that trend continues, it's going to help him. You also have to remember that anonymous votes don't count as flipped, even though they might be.

47 votes in 5 years is...not a lot of votes to flip

   161. SoSH U at work Posted: December 19, 2022 at 04:22 PM (#6110151)
You gain by getting a higher percentage of 1st time voters and some of your no votes dropping off.


And the latter is more important than the former.

Yes, he's still very well positioned. But it would have been nice to see him convert more than 1 in 6 so far in the effort to make the podium this year (which helps those below him trying to climb the ranks).

   162. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 19, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6110153)
Yes, he's still very well positioned. But it would have been nice to see him convert more than 1 in 6 so far in the effort to make the podium this year (which helps those below him trying to climb the ranks).


I guess I just feel like...it's going to happen, it just might happen later than we'd hope. It's pretty much how I felt about Mussina heading into 2019.

I don't really see how it impacts the guys below him. Helton and Wagner were the only other guys at even 50% last year and are flipping votes at a fantastic rate regardless of Rolen's performance. Helton's got a pretty good chance at getting elected this year, honestly. So does Wagner.

Does it maybe impact Andruw Jones? I guess, though he's still got so long to go, it's possible there's just a ceiling with him and he'll have several years without Rolen on the ballot anyway
   163. SoSH U at work Posted: December 19, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6110156)
I don't really see how it impacts the guys below him.


In addition to simply clearing votes, guys become more of a focal point when they hit the top. The Jack would have had a much better chance of making it if Bert had made it instead of falling just short in 2010.

But yeah, in his case, it's still about which year he goes in, not whether.
   164. sunday silence (again) Posted: December 19, 2022 at 08:02 PM (#6110161)
Tom Browning has passed away. I dont know where else to put this.
   165. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 19, 2022 at 08:54 PM (#6110163)
Tom Browning has passed away


I saw that. Only 62....RIP

Lead the league in starts 4 times, nearly 20 WAR, threw the perfecto and ended his career with exactly 1000 K's; which is kind of cool.
   166. The Duke Posted: December 19, 2022 at 10:18 PM (#6110167)
Wagner has picked up 10 votes with 32 ballots in. And Scott Rolen is 1/7 now on possible pickups. We may be talking more about Helton and Wagner going in pretty soon. Hopefully the curmudgeons who don't release their ballots will keep Wagner out.

Seems like we've gotten about 10 ballots in the last couple days. I assume the pace will pick up from here
   167. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: December 19, 2022 at 11:45 PM (#6110172)
I was of the impression that the curmudgeonly types were especially friendly to relievers.
   168. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2022 at 08:30 AM (#6110178)
I was of the impression that the curmudgeonly types were especially friendly to relievers.


Wagner did better on private ballots than public last year. He is such a bad choice for the Hall of Fame.
   169. alilisd Posted: December 20, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6110185)
Interesting anonymous ballot this morning. Abreu, Buehrle, Helton, Kent, Rolen and Wagner. If you're a no PED voter, that's a pretty darn good ballot. Still sad to see Wagner picking up votes, but not a bad ballot overall.
   170. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 20, 2022 at 12:14 PM (#6110190)
Take a look at the ballot by Sadiel Lebron.....There's simply no logic to some ballots


Does Juan Vent still vote? His were always good for a laugh. On this ballot he would probably vote for only Omar Vizquel and Torri Hunter.
   171. Jaack Posted: December 20, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6110192)
Does Juan Vent still vote? His were always good for a laugh. On this ballot he would probably vote for only Omar Vizquel and Torri Hunter.


I mean, who are we supposed to comprehend the mind of a man who wrote "El P(j)oder - A cocktail of sex, politics, and humor with a touch of baseball" at the age of 85. (Do not look up this book while at work)
   172. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 20, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6110193)
Yikes. Damned autocorrect. Juan Vene.
   173. alilisd Posted: December 20, 2022 at 01:02 PM (#6110194)
Yikes. Damned autocorrect. Juan Vene.


Incredibly he does still vote. The man is 93, how has he not been cut? Anyway, he has not been tracked yet this year, but his ballot last year was Pettitte, Wagner, drop Helton and add Rolen. Solid!
   174. Jaack Posted: December 20, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6110196)
Vene is still 'writing' - maybe google translate doesn't do them justice, but he does daily blog posts that seem to be half complaining about people being over paid and half Woody Allen quotes.

He's also published two books in the past year.
   175. The Duke Posted: December 20, 2022 at 03:19 PM (#6110217)
With 37 ballots revealed/~9.4% known:

Helton - 81.1%
Rolen - 81.1%
---
Wagner - 73.0%
Jones - 62.2%
Sheffield - 56.8%
Beltrán - 51.4%
Kent - 51.4%
A-Rod - 51.4%
Ramírez - 48.6%
Pettitte - 24.3%
Abreu - 18.9%
Buehrle - 16.2%
K-Rod - 13.5%
Rollins - 8.1%
Vizquel - 8.1%
   176. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 20, 2022 at 05:44 PM (#6110234)

I have a couple of friends who are voters, on the younger side (early 40s), definitely stat-friendly. Yet both keep voting for Billy Wagner. I have never been able to understand it.
   177. Booey Posted: December 20, 2022 at 05:54 PM (#6110237)
Re: Wagner -

Not that this makes him a worthy HOFer by any means - he's not even close, IMO - but Wagner IS one of just 3 relievers* in my 35-ish years of baseball fandom that actually felt like a major star to me at his peak. Apparently too many actual voters had the same impression. :-/

* Eck and Mo were the others. Hoffman and Lee Smith never did.
   178. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 20, 2022 at 06:07 PM (#6110242)
Not that this makes him a worthy HOFer by any means - he's not even close, IMO - but Wagner IS one of just 3 relievers* in my 35-ish years of baseball fandom that actually felt like a major star to me at his peak. Apparently too many actual voters had the same impression. :-/

* Eck and Mo were the others. Hoffman and Lee Smith never did.


Well Mo is the GOAT of part time pitchers and of course Eck was a really good starter with a no-hitter to his resume before proving to everyone that becoming a great relief pitcher is not that hard if you're just generally pretty good at pitching. See Smoltz for another reference here.

I will refrain from my annual rant about part time pitchers being elected to the HOF over far more deserving SP like Buehrle, Pettitte, Hudson, Stieb...and the list goes on.(sorry, mini rant there)
   179. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6110243)
There must be 100 pitchers who are more worthy than Billy Wagner. There are two better lefties on this ballot.
   180. alilisd Posted: December 20, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6110250)
Eck and Mo were the others. Hoffman and Lee Smith never did.


High standard there. Hoffman created the closer walk in show, or had it created for him with Hells Bells. The Bugs Bunny changeup. Still, I guess it's hard to be a star in San Diego.
   181. Booey Posted: December 20, 2022 at 06:49 PM (#6110255)
#180 - Nah, Gwynn felt like a star in San Diego. Ditto with McGriff, Sheffield, Tatis, Machado, etc.

It's hard to feel like a star when you're pitching 70 innings a year. Same as it would be if a position player was only getting 250 PA's a year. No middle reliever/set up men ever felt like stars either. They're all role players.
   182. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 20, 2022 at 08:56 PM (#6110261)
Two named voters so far have gone one-player-only: Art Davidson (Francisco Rodriguez) and Dan Gelston (Jimmy Rollins). Not sure which of those choices is more indefensible.
   183. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 20, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6110262)
No first-time voters in the first 35 public ballots; that seems unusual but I'm not sure if it actually is.
   184. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 20, 2022 at 09:28 PM (#6110267)
Dan Gelston just submitted a Rollins-only ballot. He is from Philadelphia so clearly a homer pick.
   185. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 20, 2022 at 10:49 PM (#6110273)
Dan Gelston just submitted a Rollins-only ballot. He is from Philadelphia so clearly a homer pick.
But not a consistent homer, since he didn’t vote for Bobby Abreu, who is strongly associated with the Phillies and has more WAR than Rollins. Scott Rolen spent less time in Philadelphia, but would also be a better candidate, of course.
   186. Sweatpants Posted: December 20, 2022 at 11:04 PM (#6110276)
Not that this makes him a worthy HOFer by any means - he's not even close, IMO - but Wagner IS one of just 3 relievers* in my 35-ish years of baseball fandom that actually felt like a major star to me at his peak. Apparently too many actual voters had the same impression. :-/
You think? I always had Wagner on the tier below that, maybe a little below Hoffman, a little above guys like Nen and Nathan (this is just trying to gauge his fame, not his value/ability). Francisco Rodriguez was at a similar level.

Gagne didn't have much outside of those three years, but he was a massive star during that time, bigger than Wagner was at any point.
   187. Booey Posted: December 20, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6110280)
#186 -

Wagner - 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+
Hoffman - 2.87 ERA, 141 ERA+
KRod - 2.86 ERA, 148 ERA+
Nen - 2.98 ERA, 139 ERA+
Nathan - 2.87 ERA, 151 ERA+

Wagner had 4 full (for a closer) seasons with a sub 2.00 ERA. Hoffman had 2, Rodriguez only 1. Hoffman never seemed more dominant to me than a bunch of other closers; he just lasted longer.

Gagne was big for a while, yeah. Ended up just being a flash in the pan though.
   188. Baldrick Posted: December 21, 2022 at 08:12 AM (#6110294)
Not that this makes him a worthy HOFer by any means - he's not even close, IMO - but Wagner IS one of just 3 relievers* in my 35-ish years of baseball fandom that actually felt like a major star to me at his peak. Apparently too many actual voters had the same impression. :-/

My own riff on this idea is that, sure, I don't think Wagner was a Star in the broad sense. But he is one of the only guys who I would watch (or, even more often, look at his stats) and think how is that POSSIBLE? Most of these other closers it was very easy to understand. yeah, good pitchers only going one inning, of course they'll be good.
   189. bachslunch Posted: December 21, 2022 at 10:05 AM (#6110318)
Eric Gagne also has PED baggage, which doesn't help his case any.
   190. cardsfanboy Posted: December 21, 2022 at 10:41 AM (#6110332)
I'm in the camp, if relievers is a hof position, then Wagner probably belongs in. He's on the line of where I place closers/relievers, there are 8 closers/relievers in the hof, my standard is he among the top half of that number all time I think it's clear that both Wilhelm and Rivera are the upper echelon of relievers.

Hoffman never seemed more dominant to me than a bunch of other closers; he just lasted longer.
That is a feature of a great reliever/closer. The reason I think Wagner is probably top three closer of all time is he had longevity that others didn't have (except Hoffman and Rivera) I wouldn't even consider a closer for the hof who doesn't have at least 7 excellent to great seasons. (Eckersley is the exception, he gets a bit of a bonus for his starting career, and as we have talked on this board before, Smoltz really doesn't qualify as a reliever, it's just a few tacked on seasons)
   191. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 21, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6110349)
I'm comfortable with having just two closers from the late '90s/'00s and drawing the line between Hoffman and Wagner. It's not a thick line but Hoffman has 200 more innings and held the Saves record for five years. Plus Wagner has a disastrous playoff track record, which I think should be considered for closers given their clutch god mythos.

It's also hard to justify putting in Wagner but not Joe Nathan. Nathan is just above Wagner in innings and JAWS and beats him in WAR7. Neither ever led their league in Saves and both have poor postseason resumes. Four relievers from that era would be too many.
   192. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6110355)
he had longevity that others didn't have


Wagner pitched 16 seasons. Gossage pitched 22 seasons. Franco 21, Smith 18, Fingers 17. Jesse Orosco pitched 24 seasons. Dan Plesac pitched 18 seasons. Wagner's longevity is nothing special.
   193. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6110357)
I'm comfortable with having just two closers from the late '90s/'00s and drawing the line between Hoffman and Wagner.


I'm comfortable having just one.
   194. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6110381)
#180 - Nah, Gwynn felt like a star in San Diego. Ditto with McGriff, Sheffield, Tatis, Machado, etc.


I think we have different perspectives on this. McGriff was barely here 2.5 years, Sheff less than that. Granted Sheffield won a batting title in his only full season, but I don't think either one of them was a star in San Diego. Gwynn of course, Machado as well, but that's because he was an established star who signed a massive, long term contract to come to town. Tatis was the Golden Child, but we'll see if it's just plate or solid in the next few years. For me at least, his star faded dramatically just with the broken wrist, but dimmed even further with the PED suspension. Hoffman was a huge star, but that could simply be a local bias. Maybe it doesn't play outside the local area.
   195. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6110383)
Gagne didn't have much outside of those three years, but he was a massive star during that time, bigger than Wagner was at any point.


Definitely
   196. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:28 PM (#6110385)
#186 -

Wagner - 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+
Hoffman - 2.87 ERA, 141 ERA+
KRod - 2.86 ERA, 148 ERA+
Nen - 2.98 ERA, 139 ERA+
Nathan - 2.87 ERA, 151 ERA+

Wagner had 4 full (for a closer) seasons with a sub 2.00 ERA. Hoffman had 2, Rodriguez only 1. Hoffman never seemed more dominant to me than a bunch of other closers; he just lasted longer.


Sure, but those numbers don't have anything, or not much, to do with perceived stardom. That's more to do with popularity and fame than more esoteric measures of performance. The latter is what's important, of course, but the former is what is being discussed in this tangent we're off onto :-)
   197. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6110386)
He's on the line of where I place closers/relievers, there are 8 closers/relievers in the hof, my standard is he among the top half of that number all time I think it's clear that both Wilhelm and Rivera are the upper echelon of relievers.


Eight?
   198. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6110388)
It's also hard to justify putting in Wagner but not Joe Nathan. Nathan is just above Wagner in innings and JAWS and beats him in WAR7. Neither ever led their league in Saves and both have poor postseason resumes. Four relievers from that era would be too many.


This is what I used to argue, essentially, when Hoffman was coming up for consideration. If you look reasonable at measures of pitcher performance, the difference between many of these closers is too fine to distinguish one as being in and the other as being out. They're so similar that too many of them would qualify. But that is not how the BBWAA operate in their elections. They clearly do not look at reasonable measures or vote logically in the vast majority of cases. So they'll likely put Wagner in while Nathan is one and done despite them being virtually indistinguishable based on actual pitching performance.
   199. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6110389)
I'm comfortable having just one.


How comfortable are you with Lee Smith being in? :-)
   200. cardsfanboy Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6110391)
Wagner pitched 16 seasons. Gossage pitched 22 seasons. Franco 21, Smith 18, Fingers 17. Jesse Orosco pitched 24 seasons. Dan Plesac pitched 18 seasons. Wagner's longevity is nothing special.



Okay. Quality longevity.
Wagner 4 seasons over 200 era+, 12 over 150.
Gossage 2 and 8.
Franco (who is underrated in these discussions) 2.5 7-10 depending on what you use as an innings cutoff.
Smith 1 and 4
Fingers 2 and 3.
Orosco 1 and 4.
Plesac 0 and 3.5

The way I look at it, the equivalent of 150 era+ is borderline all star level, and means that the pitcher is a "starting" reliever. Less than that, and you are the second or third guy that a team might rely on.

There are all type of arguments for many different relievers over a certain other reliever etc, my feeling is that if we are to include relievers, then you need the guys who separate themselves from the established norm for their time in a superior way. The norm for the better relievers during Wagner's era is guys pitching 4-6 good seasons then struggling to continue to do the job. Only Wagner and Rivera really exceeded that standard, with Nathan and Hoffman getting other type of credit (Nathan because of the sheer number of great seasons, and Hoffman because of the continued high quality for longer than normal)


And I'm not really arguing for Wagner to go in, just saying if we are putting relievers in, and considering it a separate position from starting pitching, then in my opinion, Wagner is the answer to the question "who is the best player at the reliever position that is not in the hof?" , also I feel by adding reliever as a separate position that he qualifies as a yes to the other question "does his performance exceed hof standards at his position."

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