Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, December 12, 2022

Baseball Hall of Fame tracker 2023

Baldrick Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:22 AM | 748 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 3 of 8 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 >  Last ›
   201. kcgard2 Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6110392)
Gagne didn't have much outside of those three years, but he was a massive star during that time, bigger than Wagner was at any point.

Definitely

I think this might be some west coast bias? My feeling aligns with Booey, that Wagner was one of the biggest closer stars in the game. I knew Gagne for being a failed starter (as all these guys are) and then for a crazy short run of PED fueled dominance, and then he disappeared. Wagner got a lot more talk, year after year after year, for being a star. My impression, anyway.
   202. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6110393)
flip
   203. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:52 PM (#6110397)
For the voters who selected only one player on their ballot, what is the best good-faith argument you could make for picking one, and only one:

Jimmy Rollins
K-Rod

NOTE: This is different from submitting a blank ballot. I would not do that, because I think there are several players on the ballot who are worthy of the HOF, but at least I understand the argument. There is not a Griffey/Maddux/Jeter/Pedro 1st year guy that makes the blank ballot absolutely, positively indefensible. If you are a small-Hall voter, I can see the argument.

But you see this ballot, and you decide...that the only guy here who rises to your standard of a HOFer is...Jimmy Rollins? Francisco Rodriguez? What's the best good-faith argument for either of these ballots you can construct?

   204. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:55 PM (#6110399)

I admit this is subjective, but Hoffman had a consistency and longevity that none of the other guys seemed to. He basically missed a season due to injury at age 35 but other than that you could say he was an above average, and usually very good, closer every year from age 26 through 41.

Wagner had a terrible year at age 28 (I assume he was hurt, but I don't remember), and missed most of his age 37. He was better than Hoffman during his good seasons and he started earlier, so I'm not sure how much to hold it against him. But I'm comfortable with Hoffman being in and Wagner being out.

Joe Nathan missed multiple seasons and had a few clunkers in there as well. His case seems much tougher than Wagner's.
   205. jmurph Posted: December 21, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6110401)
For the voters who selected only one player on their ballot, what is the best good-faith argument you could make for picking one, and only one:

Jimmy Rollins
K-Rod

I'm not going to put forward a case because neither is deserving, but Rollins isn't that far below HOF standards, while K-Rod isn't even worthy of a second glance.
   206. SoSH U at work Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6110403)
I think just talking about relievers as if they belong, or even which ones are least undeserving, is doing the devil's work for him.
   207. Booey Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6110404)
Re: Wagner -

In my initial post, I specifically said that Wagner felt like a bigger star than Hoffman TO ME. I'm not claiming that was the general consensus at the time. I really have no idea on that. His peak seasons looked more dominant, so they stood out more in my mind. But yes, Hoffman lasted longer and longevity is probably the most important criteria when discussing closers for the HOF, so if I HAD to elect one of them, I'd pick Hoffman over Wagner (but in reality I wouldn't vote for either).

It's basically your typical peak vs career argument. Giambi was a bigger star at his peak than Palmeiro, but Raffy ended up with a much better career.
   208. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6110406)
and considering it a separate position from starting pitching


If "relief pitcher" is a separate position it's a lot easier position to play than Starting Pitcher. WAR treats relievers like they're doing something special by pitching in high leverage situations. Credit for optimizing a bullpen so the best pitchers pitch in the highest leverage situations should go to the manager (or now the people who hand the spreadsheet to the manager). It shouldn't go to the pitchers. Relievers only have to pitch for one inning so they can just throw as hard as they can. They get the "first time through the order" advantage every time. They only need two pitches (or sometimes just one) to be successful. If the degree of difficulty is lower our expectations should be a lot higher.
   209. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6110411)
Rollins' peak doesn't look that good by advanced metrics, and he was far behind SS peers like Jeter, Nomar, Tejada, but he was a durable mainstay for some excellent teams. He finished with well over 2,000 hits, 200+ HRs and 470 steals-pretty good numbers for a guy that was able to play SS for over 15 years.
   210. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6110412)
The norm for the better relievers during Wagner's era is guys pitching 4-6 good seasons then struggling to continue to do the job. Only Wagner and Rivera really exceeded that standard, with Nathan and Hoffman getting other type of credit (Nathan because of the sheer number of great seasons, and Hoffman because of the continued high quality for longer than normal)

It's basically your typical peak vs career argument.

Hoffman wasn't just a compiler though. I mentioned earlier that Wagner and Hoffman (and Papelbon, for that matter) were about even in WAR7 - and both were below Nathan.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_RP.shtml
   211. Jaack Posted: December 21, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6110413)
But you see this ballot, and you decide...that the only guy here who rises to your standard of a HOFer is...Jimmy Rollins? Francisco Rodriguez? What's the best good-faith argument for either of these ballots you can construct?


Well for both, if you are a big time character clause person, you can knock out all of the strong candidates aside from Rolen and Helton in one fell swoop. Everyone else is either tainted or debatable.

For K-Rod:
Most saves of anyone not in the Hall of Fame. This is basically how McGriff and Baines got in with HR and hits respectively. Looking at raw saves allows him to beat Wagner as well.

A pure counting stat guy would not appreciate Rolen. Helton is better there, but not super strong, and he has the Coors Factor.

For Rollins: Its a Phillies homer pick, but the most good faith argument for him is that he was perceived best player on some great Phillies teams. Utley was actually better, and the pitching was the heart of the best of those teams, but it's well within the range of public opinion. Meanwhile Helton was mostly on bad teams while Rolen was a sidekick to Pujols in his prime. Rollins also has nice counting stats for a SS, which again, is a problem for Rolen and Helton.
   212. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6110416)
The whole idea that these different types of pitchers are different positions really should disappear with the concept of the opener.

That we have guys who nominally, are a starter (because they are, after all, starting the game) but being used like a reliever and throwing one inning, should show us that these guys are just pitchers.

It's so absurd to me that we've allowed a special exception to be carved out for closers. Not even relief pitchers, just closers. Is David Robertson's 145 ERA+ going to get him the traction that Hoffman's 141 did? Of course not. He's only got 159 saves.

   213. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:07 PM (#6110417)
but the most good faith argument for him is that he was perceived best player on some great Phillies teams. Utley was actually better, and the pitching was the heart of the best of those teams, but it's well within the range of public opinion.


The fact that he was, objectively, not the best player on the team seems like it would make the argument about his perception in bad faith.
   214. cardsfanboy Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6110421)
The whole idea that these different types of pitchers are different positions really should disappear with the concept of the opener.


I've been doing a thought experiment in my head the past couple of weeks, arguing with myself that replacement level should be different for each inning. (note: this is just a concept I'm going through mental exercises with, it's nothing concrete, just a thought experiment, but I'm arguing with myself. That a pitcher pitching inning 1 might have a different definition of "replacement" level than someone pitching the 6th or 9th or extra innings...this isn't about leverage though, it's more about pitching roles and the ability to move through roles... another side argument is that "replacement level" is different per consecutive inning pitched... so a pitcher who throws 5 innings in a game has a lower replacement level than a pitcher who throws one inning or 4 innings etc.--- again this is a thought exercise, not something concrete I back)


I'm not a fan of relievers in the hof personally either, I wouldn't have voted(if I had a vote) for Rivera if there weren't already other relievers in the hof. But that cat is out of the bag, and to maintain consistency, other relievers should be considered based upon established standards(whether Wagner or K-rod or others meet that standard is of course a different argument, and of course any voter is free to ignore the standard if they feel the standard is too low or shouldn't exist) . (and no this isn't the same as we need to start looking at pinch hitters, as there has yet to be a pinch hitter that has been putting in the hof, and of course even the few inning pitchers still face twice the number of batters per season than the a pinch hitter has appearances (record is 82 by Jose Morales a 60 inning pitcher faces close to 200+ batters or more)
   215. Booey Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:27 PM (#6110422)
#210 - I'd be surprised if anyone paid much attention to WAR when ranking closers. None of them will look like anything special using WAR (except Rivera). It's all about ERA (or ERA+) and saves. Hoffman has a lot more saves so I certainly understand why he's the better career candidate, but setting a minimum cutoff of 50 IP, Hoffman has 7 seasons with a 150 ERA+, including 2 over 200. Wagner has 10 and 4 in a shorter career (and he adds 2 more of 150+ if you drop the IP requirement down to 47 innings). He just LOOKED more dominant to me back in the 1990's/2000's. Not saying that perception was necessarily correct (but again, 187 career ERA+ vs 141), it's just how it felt at the time. And really it's all a moo* point, since neither of them would get a vote on my hypothetical ballot. The best role players are still just role players.

* Like a cow's opinion. It doesn't matter. ;-)
   216. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:44 PM (#6110426)
[203] Argument for K-Rod: he has the single season record for saves and lots of career saves, more than Wagner and more than anyone not already in the hall. Any other record holders on the ballot? A-Rod and Manny are steroid users.

Argument for Rollins: the guy was a Phillie and a star for them for many years (the voter is from Philadelphia). Abreu spent too much time with the Yankees. Werth wasn't as good and also spent significant time with other teams and Wagner spent far more time with the Astros. Rolen was a better player, but no Phillie fan likes Rolen.
   217. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 21, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6110427)
Credit for optimizing a bullpen so the best pitchers pitch in the highest leverage situations should go to the manager (or now the people who hand the spreadsheet to the manager). It shouldn't go to the pitchers.


By that argument, Ruth shouldn't be in the HOF as the credit for his performance in the outfield should go to his managers, not him, since they're the ones that moved him off starting pitcher.
   218. Adam Starblind Posted: December 21, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6110435)
I said this earlier, but since KRod’s character came up again: He beat up his girlfriend’s father *at Citi Field*! I may be mistaken, but I think we was never seen in a Mets uniform again.
   219. alilisd Posted: December 21, 2022 at 06:37 PM (#6110452)
I knew Gagne for being a failed starter (as all these guys are) and then for a crazy short run of PED fueled dominance, and then he disappeared.


He said Gagne was a massive star for those 3 years, and he was. Three straight AS appearances, 4th, 1st and 7th in CY, also 12th, 6th and 11th in MVP voting! Averaged 51 saves, a 223 ERA+ and a FIP 22 points below his ERA. Your other memories of him are accurate, but he was a big star for those 3 seasons.
   220. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 21, 2022 at 07:08 PM (#6110456)
Gagne also has the record for most consecutive saves converted (84) and most saves converted in a perfect season (55).
   221. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2022 at 09:48 PM (#6110481)
Ruth shouldn't be in the HOF as the credit for his performance


Babe Ruth doesn't get different credit in WAR for runs he produces in different innings or situations. Relievers should get credit for preventing runs but they shouldn't get credit for the game situation.
   222. Howie Menckel Posted: December 22, 2022 at 12:14 AM (#6110492)
there's a note on the Hall of Merit ballot discussion about the paucity of 2023 ballots so far.

in unrelated news, while I have voted, I could not get into the discussion thread to note that it is difficult for many to get into HOM threads in general.

I would suggest a "house to house search" of recent voters on social media to see if they can vote in another avenue and then have it transferred to the translucent-at-best HOM pages.....
   223. DL from MN Posted: December 22, 2022 at 08:28 AM (#6110503)
I don't know why the Hall of Merit threads seem to close randomly. I have the ballot up for a month for a reason - it probably takes that long for most people to login.
   224. Srul Itza Posted: December 22, 2022 at 12:58 PM (#6110544)
Okay. Quality longevity.
Wagner 4 seasons over 200 era+, 12 over 150.
Gossage 2 and 8.
Franco (who is underrated in these discussions) 2.5 7-10 depending on what you use as an innings cutoff.
Smith 1 and 4
Fingers 2 and 3.
Orosco 1 and 4.
Plesac 0 and 3.5


Mo -- 12 and 16. Damn.

And that does not include 141 Post season innings at an ERA of 0.70 -- about half that of his best individual year, against superior competition.

EDIT: And he did all that throwing essentially ONE PITCH, that every batter knew was coming.

All you Stat Drunk Computer Nerds can ##### and moan about fWAR and bWAR and VORP and GORP and FIP and FU, but the Hall of Fame is about players like Mo, who amazed and awed. If you don't understand that, just take up futbol and leave the real fans alone.
   225. Booey Posted: December 22, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6110551)
#224 - I agree, but TBF, who here is b!tching about Mo? We're shaking our heads at the support for far inferior closers like Wagner, Hoffman, and KRod, not Rivera.
   226. Srul Itza Posted: December 22, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6110554)
225: There has been an undercurrent from some posters that NO RELIEVER SHOULD BE ALLOWED IN THE HALL. See, e.g., 208 and 214.

The Hall would be poorer without Hoyt and Mo. There is more to the love of the game than quantitative analysis.

I'm more with than against Breslin on this one: Baseball isn't statistics, it's Joe Dimaggio rounding second base.


EDIT: Not that statistics can't provide their own appreciation of the game, but they can't be the be-all and end-all.
   227. DCA Posted: December 22, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6110555)
You can draw the HOF line reasonably to exclude all relievers.

You can draw it reasonably to include Rivera and exclude all others.

If you are going to include more than just Rivera, it gets complicated. There are really only 2 options for second best RP - Wagner (rate quality) and Wilhelm (quantity of elite performance) - not that they are a clear #2/#3, but there's no one else who is a possible #2.

I would feel most comfortable drawing the line to include only those 3 + maybe Goose and Hoffman, although the real HOF has decided to be somewhat more inclusive. Based on the de facto standard, I think Wagner is clearly in.
   228. Sweatpants Posted: December 22, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6110558)
I think this might be some west coast bias? My feeling aligns with Booey, that Wagner was one of the biggest closer stars in the game. I knew Gagne for being a failed starter (as all these guys are) and then for a crazy short run of PED fueled dominance, and then he disappeared. Wagner got a lot more talk, year after year after year, for being a star. My impression, anyway.
I'm not from the West, so it's not that.

The only two closers that I've ever perceived as superstars, or among the 10-20 most famous players in the game, are Gagne for those three years and Rivera. I don't think that Wagner, Hoffman, Smoltz, Rodriguez, Papelbon, Kimbrel, Chapman, or anyone else reached that level (I'll cop to not having a good handle on anything past 2015 or so). Wagner probably did get more press over the course of his career than Gagne did, but you could say the same thing about other non-superstars with excellent longevity like Bob Abreu.
   229. SoSH U at work Posted: December 22, 2022 at 02:45 PM (#6110561)
If you are going to include more than just Rivera, it gets complicated. There are really only 2 options for second best RP - Wagner (rate quality) and Wilhelm (quantity of elite performance) - not that they are a clear #2/#3, but there's no one else who is a possible #2.


Rich Gossage's reliever prime was every bit as good as Wagner's full career on a rate basis with more innings thrown, and then Goose added another 700 innings of quality pitching on top of that.

Wagner and his 903 IP of great regular season pitching (and abysmal postseason pitching) have no business near the Hall of Fame
   230. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6110563)
There are really only 2 options for second best RP - Wagner (rate quality) and Wilhelm (quantity of elite performance) - not that they are a clear #2/#3, but there's no one else who is a possible #2.


Save % for the 90s/00s relievers:

Rivera - 89
Hoffman - 89
Nathan - 89
Papelbon - 88
Wagner - 86
Eck - 85
Smith - 82
   231. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6110564)
Rich Gossage's reliever prime was every bit as good as Wagner's full career on a rate basis with more innings thrown, and then Goose added another 700 innings of quality pitching on top of that.


Yes, absolutely. Paul Richards's misguided attempt to make Gossage a starter cuts off his excellent 1975 from the rest of his prime and thus it can't summed easily. But from 1977-1985, he had 833 IP with a 182 ERA+. Add in 1975 and it's something like 975 IP and 186 . Wagner for his career was 903 187. To that, Gossage adds 392 and 105 at the end of his career and 224 and 91 (good for 2.8 WAR) his one year as a starter. Yes, I choose to ignore his first 3 years, which were abysmal, but those were ages 20-22. At those ages, Wagner was in college and A ball.
   232. Howie Menckel Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:19 PM (#6110566)
post 230 demonstrates why I'd put Rivera into the HOF only because of his extraordinary postseason performances.

A modern closer has one job - get 3 outs to the end the game before the opponent gets to 1, 2, or 3 runs, depending on the score.

It's not all that difficult for a good pitcher. Rivera allowing fewer baserunners than similar closers doesn't particularly mean anything (unless you're the manager's blood pressure).
   233. SoSH U at work Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6110569)
post 230 demonstrates why I'd put Rivera into the HOF only because of his extraordinary postseason performances.


Mo gave up fewer earned runs in 141 innings of postseason work than Wagner did in 11.2.
   234. TomH Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:43 PM (#6110574)
How Wilhelm cannot be #1 or #2 reliever all time is beyond me. I could quote awesome stats of us all week.
   235. DL from MN Posted: December 22, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6110575)
The Hall would be poorer without Hoyt and Mo.


Quantitative analysis puts both of those guys in. If I am feeling generous I would elect Gossage. But that's it. I'm fine with Gossage as the standard for relievers. Wagner needed about 6 more seasons before I would take him seriously as a candidate.

Ranking relievers by WAA + WAR

Rivera 89
Wilhelm 77
Gossage 56
Wagner 44
Smith 43
Hoffman 42
Nathan 40
Rodriguez 37
Tekulve 37
Quisenberry 37
Sutter 35
Franco 34
Fingers 32
Reardon 27
   236. The Duke Posted: December 22, 2022 at 04:12 PM (#6110580)
Why not Lindy McDaniel for the HOF. 28 WAR, 145 wins, 174 saves. Led league in saves 4X, 2X all star and he had a really long career. All his pitching stats are excellent.

He satisfies my criteria that he could both start and relieve at a high level
   237. alilisd Posted: December 22, 2022 at 06:14 PM (#6110595)
although the real HOF has decided to be somewhat more inclusive. Based on the de facto standard, I think Wagner is clearly in.


The BBWAA have been far more inclusive, far too inclusive, but even so there is hardly a standard. Wilhelm is first in 1985, but he's vastly different than Fingers who was second in 1992. Then it's another 14 years before Sutter goes in, and he's quite different from Fingers (far fewer career innings, much more emphasis on Saves rather than the Fireman role Fingers filled early in his career). You can't include Eckersley meaningfully in any sort of reliever standard as he simply has too much careers as a starter. Gossage is elected only two years after Sutter, but he's more of a throwback to Fingers, at least in terms of role. By Fireman role I mean both Fingers and Gossage were much more likely to be used in non save situations than Sutter. They were brought into high leverage situations with runners on base and earlier in games much more often than Sutter. Then it's on to Hoffman in 2018 and both Rivera and Smith in 2019. Two guys who were one inning closers (with the caveat that Rivera was stellar in save situations of more than one inning, and as noted ever more so in the post season), and another who somewhat straddled the multi-inning reliever transition to single inning closer role in Smith. So how do you get a standard from that? And how does Wagner meet it?
   238. Booey Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6110674)
Yeah, I'm with alilisd regarding the voters closer standards; I have no idea what they are anymore. While I disagree with most of them, I've at least understood the reasoning behind all the closer selections so far. Wilhelm was the relief GOAT before Rivera replaced him. Eck had an impressive hybrid career. Fingers, Sutter, and Gossage were sort of pioneers that helped define the role. Smith and Hoffman held the all time saves record for a while. But Wagner did none of those things and he's over 200 saves behind the all time leader. He gets postseason demerits rather than extra credit. He has what...a good ERA+? As I noted earlier, he "felt" dominant (by closer standards)?

And where's the line going forward? Everyone with 400 saves? Is that the difference between Joe Nathan and his paltry 377 saves being one and done while the very comparable KRod might work his way up to election? Will Kimbrel and Jansen punch their tickets to Cooperstown next season when they record their 400th save?

It all seems so arbitrary at this point.
   239. base ball chick Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:48 AM (#6110683)
224. Srul Itza Posted: December 22, 2022 at 12:58 PM (#6110544)


All you Stat Drunk Computer Nerds can ##### and moan about fWAR and bWAR and VORP and GORP and FIP and FU, but the Hall of Fame is about players like Mo, who amazed and awed. If you don't understand that, just take up futbol and leave the real fans alone.


- the Hall is, unfortunately NOT that. it SHOULD be, but it has this unfortunate Character Clause and These Days a ballplayer is expected to be a Saint off the field as well as on it.

and, as you've prolly noticed, most of the Stat Drunk Computer Nerds do NOT adjust their stats to include the obviously bad electees like jack morris, harold baines etc
   240. alilisd Posted: December 23, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6110699)
Oh goodie! We have our first blank ballot from an anonymous voter just in time for Christmas!
   241. Karl from NY Posted: December 23, 2022 at 01:52 PM (#6110706)
Yeah, I'm with alilisd regarding the voters closer standards; I have no idea what they are anymore. ... As I noted earlier, he "felt" dominant

Yeah, that last is it. The standards are whether the writers got stories out of that player. Wagner made that easy by throwing 102 mph. So did K-rod with his strikeout totals and he's going in too.
   242. alilisd Posted: December 23, 2022 at 01:56 PM (#6110708)
And where's the line going forward? Everyone with 400 saves? Is that the difference between Joe Nathan and his paltry 377 saves being one and done while the very comparable KRod might work his way up to election? Will Kimbrel and Jansen punch their tickets to Cooperstown next season when they record their 400th save?


Right, these are reasonable, logical questions a reasonable, logical voter would ask. But honestly what is the reasonable, logical explanation for Joe Nathan receiving only 17 votes, 4.3%, in his only year on the ballot, and Wagner pulling 46 votes, 10.5%, in his first year on a much more crowded ballot? Nathan's career as a closer ran consecutively from 2003-2014, his first two seasons were as a starter, then two seasons lost to injury, and his last two "seasons" comprised only 6 2/3 IP. He also missed 2010 right in the middle of his career, but you're looking at a closer who pitched from 2003-2014 in that role.

Saves 375, Save % 89.1, ERA+ 177, ERA/FIP 2.44/2.77, K/9 10.5, IP 729 1/3, if anyone cares W-L 50-28 versus

Saves 422, Save % 85.9, ERA+ 187, ERA/FIP 2.31/2.73, K/9 11.9, IP 903 if anyone cares W-L 47-40

This seems far too fine a line to draw between someone who was one and done and another player who is looking like he may very well be on his way to election with a final year of eligibility bump.
   243. alilisd Posted: December 23, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6110710)
Yeah, that last is it. The standards are whether the writers got stories out of that player. Wagner made that easy by throwing 102 mph. So did K-rod with his strikeout totals and he's going in too.


Not so sure about Rodriguez making it all the way to 75%, but agree writers nearly always write about the K's when trying to justify voting for Wagner, a lot of them throw in ERA+, too, but mostly it's about the K's. Of course it's always about the rate of K's, too, never the quantity. Conveniently forgetting that it's far easier to throw gas past hitters who only get one chance at you, and you only have to throw one inning at a time. I guess being 376th on the all time Career K list, right between Chris Capuano and Russ Ortiz, isn't as impressive as 11.9 K/9. I wonder if they ever look at the Career K/9 list and wonder why he's not there
   244. The Duke Posted: December 23, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6110722)
Rolen is 1/9 on people who didn't vote for him last year. Looks like Wagner has picked up 10/23 and Helton 9/17. Donors possible all three of them bunch up close but not over the line.
   245. jingoist Posted: December 23, 2022 at 11:26 PM (#6110790)
A Lindy McDaniel sighting!
I remember when he and Von joined the Cards way back when.
He had a wonderful career….not a HOFer but a great pitcher.

   246. alilisd Posted: December 24, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6110825)
A Lindy McDaniel sighting!
I remember when he and Von joined the Cards way back when.
He had a wonderful career….not a HOFer but a great pitcher.


Was he a bonus baby? I see he pitched all of 19 innings at age 19, never appearing in the minors until his age 22 season.
   247. The Duke Posted: December 24, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6110842)
Why isn't he a HOFr?

He's better than Fingers, Sutter, Wagner, K-Rod, Kimbrel, Chapman, and Nathan by bWAR. Roughly equal to Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman

Only wilhelm and Gossage had more Ks from what I can see

Only wilhelm has more innings

His combo of wins and saves is excellent and would have been much higher had anyone been playing using the save metric

He's certainly the type of guy who should be on an old-timers vet ballot


   248. SoSH U at work Posted: December 24, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6110843)
Why isn't he a HOFr?

He's better than Fingers, Sutter, Wagner, K-Rod, Kimbrel, Chapman, and Nathan by bWAR. Roughly equal to Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman


Because the voters didn't start losing their minds until they got mesmerized by Rollie and his moustache.
   249. kcgard2 Posted: December 24, 2022 at 10:01 PM (#6110859)
Why isn't he a HOFr?

He's better than Fingers, Sutter, Wagner, K-Rod, Kimbrel, Chapman, and Nathan by bWAR. Roughly equal to Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman

The most obvious reason is that bWAR (or any other WAR) is completely irrelevant to HOF voters when evaluating relievers. Which is apparent by the fact that there are relievers in the HOF (other than Mo). But if you think that Lindy McDaniel is honestly a good candidate, you have to start asking yourself why about 200 other players aren't. For example, McDaniel's virtual clone, Tom Gordon. And as you're talking yourself into voting for him, you're saying to yourself things like "Yeah, he's a slightly better Ryan Dempster, and that's HOF worthy" which maybe makes you re-evaluate talking yourself into voting for him. That'd be my guess. Combined with the fact that lots of HOF voters do not care about consistency, logic, or putting the effort of thoughtfulness into the privilege.
   250. TomH Posted: December 25, 2022 at 06:03 AM (#6110864)
quoting bWAR or other stats for Rollie Fingers HOF case doesn't help much. Rollie is in because he was one of the best clutch post-season pitchers ever, and the A's got 3 rings... while it's likely they only get 1 or 2 if not for Rollie.

bbref leaders, post-season Championship WPA

1. Mariano Rivera 183.0
2. Madison Bumgarner 132.6
3. Rollie Fingers 122.3

of course the other 2 came well after Fingers' career
   251. Booey Posted: December 25, 2022 at 12:20 PM (#6110875)
So through 43 ballots, Rolen and Helton are barely over the line at 76.7%. What are the chances we get another shutout from the writers? (And a McGriff only induction ceremony overall)
   252. alilisd Posted: December 25, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6110879)
So through 43 ballots, Rolen and Helton are barely over the line at 76.7%. What are the chances we get another shutout from the writers?


Sadly, I think quite high.

I see only one ballot came in yesterday and it's an interesting one. Allan Greenwood, or something like that, voted for only Manny and A-Rod. Some kine of pro PED ballot? An anti character clause ballot?
   253. SoSH U at work Posted: December 25, 2022 at 01:08 PM (#6110885)
Sadly, I think quite high.


Same here. I thought Rolen would get through, but his inability to convert any early votes just makes it hard to see a path to 75 percent this year.
   254. Booey Posted: December 25, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6110895)
#252 - For a small hall voter who didn't care about PED's, it's not hard to see how ARod and Ramirez could be viewed as the 2 best players on the ballot. They'd probably be my top 2 picks (ARod would be #1 by a mile).

Regarding Rolen, I'm a bit worried that if he doesn't make it this year, his support might stagnate for a couple years with several worthy newcomers hitting the ballot in the next 2 elections (Beltre, Mauer, and Utley in 2024, Ichiro and Sabathia in 2025), one of which (Beltre) is basically a superior version of Rolen himself.
   255. alilisd Posted: December 25, 2022 at 05:26 PM (#6110898)
#252 - For a small hall voter who didn't care about PED's, it's not hard to see how ARod and Ramirez could be viewed as the 2 best players on the ballot. They'd probably be my top 2 picks (ARod would be #1 by a mile).


Yeah that does make sense.
   256. alilisd Posted: December 25, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6110899)
Regarding Rolen, I'm a bit worried that if he doesn't make it this year, his support might stagnate for a couple years with several worthy newcomers hitting the ballot in the next 2 elections (Beltre, Mauer, and Utley in 2024, Ichiro and Sabathia in 2025), one of which (Beltre) is basically a superior version of Rolen himself.


This seems like a reasonable take. It's sad that after putting in many deserving players in recent years, even while shutting out many others, it's looking like the writers will only put in one from 2021-2023, and probably only one more in 2024. I don't think they can miss on Beltre since he soared past 3000 hits and has the defensive rep to go with plenty of great offensive numbers. But still that's shutout, one, shutout, and one from 2021-2024. Would be sad if Rolen gets stuck on the doorstep and can't get over the line, same with Helton from my perspective on his candidacy at least.
   257. The Duke Posted: December 25, 2022 at 06:23 PM (#6110900)
Rolen has only picked up 1 out of 11. Too early to tell. I think he'll do better soon
   258. The Duke Posted: December 26, 2022 at 08:39 PM (#6110931)
Looks like Wagner is pulling ahead of Rolen in probabilities but looking more and more like shutout
   259. The Duke Posted: December 27, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6110941)
Ballots coming fast and furious now but nothing that shows we will get a result
   260. alilisd Posted: December 27, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6110954)
Sixty ballots on the tracker, about 15% of the total cast last year, and Rolen has only added 2 returning voters while Wagner is leading all candidates with 13 added, albeit a net 12 as he has, thankfully, lost one.
   261. alilisd Posted: December 27, 2022 at 04:22 PM (#6110957)
A ballot today from second year voter Will Graves. He shares his ballot and comments on Facebook. I don't know how receptive he is to critique, but if you have a FB account and feel like giving him some input, he considers himself a small hall voter who voted for Bonds, Clemens, Ortiz, and Wagner last year. This year he's added Rolen and Sheffield while maintaining a vote for Wagner. I took a shot at trying to explain to him how irreconcilable small hall is with voting for one inning relievers. Perhaps if some other chime in he may reconsider.
   262. Adam Starblind Posted: December 27, 2022 at 04:57 PM (#6110958)
This anti-reliever echo chamber is starting to make me want Steve Bedrosian and Armando Benitez enshrined. And Tom Henke. And Mike Henneman.
   263. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 27, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6110959)
Rolen finally gets a second add today, plus a vote from (somehow) the only first-time voter in the 62 ballots we know so far. I will admit to being more concerned about his chances at 2/12 converting voters than I was at 1/6, but I still think he has a good shot to go in this year.

Beltran is at 51.6% so far, which would be potentially promising as a first-time percentage if it holds up, but he's also currently behind Rolen, Helton, Wagner, Andruw, and Sheffield, and running barely ahead of Manny and A-Rod. His correlation to Manny and A-Rod's exact voters may be less strong than I initially expected; he now has 9 votes that didn't include either of them.
   264. Adam Starblind Posted: December 27, 2022 at 05:18 PM (#6110962)
Beltran seems like a good candidate for a one-year punishment, a la Alomar. Plus, he was never a clear first rounder. So it’s hard to know how much he’s being penalized here and cause for optimism that whatever it is won’t keep him from being elected in the next couple of years.
   265. Booey Posted: December 27, 2022 at 06:28 PM (#6110963)
#264 - I'll believe that voters are willing to give any "cheater" a one year only punishment rather than a permanent one when I see it. Sanctimony runs rampant in the BBWAA (and in modern society in general).
   266. Adam Starblind Posted: December 27, 2022 at 06:36 PM (#6110964)
@265

Lots of deserving HOFers debuted at 50ish percent or less before ultimately getting elected. Your theory requires that at least half the people not voting for Beltran on the first ballot will never vote for him. That would be ahistorical and surprising. We’ve pointed out the arguable hypocrisy many times — steroids are treated differently from other forms of cheating. Time will tell.
   267. The Duke Posted: December 27, 2022 at 07:09 PM (#6110965)
Fascinating to see how the votes are being re-allocated now that there are no ballot crowding issues. My big takeaway is that Sheffield is going to get enough votes to get in via vets. Kent and Jones as well. If Rolen and Wagner and Helton falter at the alter we'll have a hugely backlogged bets committee for years to come and my dream of Edmonds and Hernandez getting in will stay dreams.
   268. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 27, 2022 at 07:30 PM (#6110968)
My big takeaway is that Sheffield is going to get enough votes to get in via vets.


How have people forgotten that Sheffield used the same steroids from the same company as Barry Bonds?
   269. alilisd Posted: December 27, 2022 at 07:47 PM (#6110971)
My big takeaway is that Sheffield is going to get enough votes to get in via vets. Kent and Jones as well. If Rolen and Wagner and Helton falter at the alter we'll have a hugely backlogged bets committee for years to come and my dream of Edmonds and Hernandez getting in will stay dreams.


Trying to extrapolate Era selections from BBWAA voting totals is pointless. There may be some correlation between a higher vote total by the writers and eventual selection by a committee, but it's far from meaningful. For example, Bonds and Clemens were at 66/65% in their final year, McGriff never made it to 40%, yet McGriff is going in and the other two received "less than four" votes. Gil Hodges was over 60% in his last year on the ballot with the writers, but took almost 40 years to go in via committee. Baines couldn't even stay on the ballot for the entire eligibility period, but 8 years later went in. There's simply no rhyme or reason there.
   270. alilisd Posted: December 27, 2022 at 08:00 PM (#6110974)
How have people forgotten that Sheffield used the same steroids from the same company as Barry Bonds?


Oh, the Facebook voter has a fascinating take on that. Sheffield made the All Star team and received MVP votes in 2004 and 2005, after testing began, so he must have been clean then and he was still good. According to Mr. Graves, Sheffield only "ran into issues w/ties to Balco and being associated with the Mitchell Report."
   271. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 27, 2022 at 08:12 PM (#6110976)
Lots of deserving HOFers debuted at 50ish percent or less before ultimately getting elected. Your theory requires that at least half the people not voting for Beltran on the first ballot will never vote for him. That would be ahistorical and surprising.

First, Beltran's percentage now is not likely to be his final percentage; stat-friendly candidates tend to fall as more ballots are released.

Second, this would be ahistorical and surprising - except among a subset of candidates that get blacklisted by a particular subset of the writers. Beltran may end up in that group. (He also may not; we'll see how he progresses next year.)

Trying to extrapolate Era selections from BBWAA voting totals is pointless. There may be some correlation between a higher vote total by the writers and eventual selection by a committee, but it's far from meaningful. For example, Bonds and Clemens were at 66/65% in their final year, McGriff never made it to 40%, yet McGriff is going in and the other two received "less than four" votes.

As has been noted in many other places, Bonds and Clemens are a special case. (They may also get in eventually, it will depend on how the VC evolves over time.)

In general, players who get very close on the BBWAA ballot get in via the vets pretty quickly; other players also get in, but the 50-plus percent players are at the front of the line. (As you note, Hodges took a while, but he did get in, and if memory serves nobody else who cleared 50% via the writers has had to wait nearly as long as Hodges.) The question is whether Sheffield's early gains will hold up, and if they do, whether the VC will have a selective memory on his 'roid use compared to Bonds and Clemens.
   272. The Duke Posted: December 27, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6110979)
From jay Jaffe:

In the October 11, 2004 issue of Sports Illustrated, Verducci reported that Sheffield told the grand jury that he was introduced to BALCO by Bonds, a casual friend who invited him to train with him in San Francisco before the 2002 season. Trainer Greg Anderson gave Sheffield what the slugger believed to be a cortisone-type cream to rub on his surgical scars, but it was in fact the testosterone-based steroid known as “the cream.” He was not told it was an illegal steroid:

“I put it on my legs and thought nothing of it. I kept it in my locker. The trainer saw my cream,” he told the grand jury. Though he soon broke off ties with Bonds due to an unrelated matter, he used the cream during the season, a relatively down one in which he hit a representative .307/.404/.512 but with just 25 homers. He was shocked to find out it was a steroid.

Im inclined to give him a pass simply because he was willing to admit it. Did he really not know?
   273. Booey Posted: December 27, 2022 at 08:49 PM (#6110980)
#266 - What happened to Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling - and what's currently happening to ARod - is "ahistorical" as well. "Cheaters" don't follow traditional voting patterns. So yes, until I see otherwise, I fully believe that half the writers not voting for Beltran never will.

I hope I'm wrong.
   274. Adam Starblind Posted: December 27, 2022 at 09:03 PM (#6110986)
Ok, Beltran is screwed. Good work guys.
   275. Booey Posted: December 27, 2022 at 10:29 PM (#6110993)
On a random note, isn't it a little weird that a 3rd ballot guy (Torii Hunter) still has zero votes this late in the game after surviving the first 2 ballots?
   276. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 27, 2022 at 10:51 PM (#6110995)
On a random note, isn't it a little weird that a 3rd ballot guy (Torii Hunter) still has zero votes this late in the game after surviving the first 2 ballots?

The set of voters seems weird to me so far in general (still only one first-time voter through 65 total). Hunter hasn't actually lost any votes from last year, none of his supporters have announced yet.
   277. Jaack Posted: December 27, 2022 at 11:07 PM (#6110998)
Don't hold your breath waiting on a Hunter vote either - he only had three pre-annoucement last year.
   278. The Duke Posted: December 28, 2022 at 09:12 AM (#6111029)
Beltran is doing fine. He'll get a big bump in year 2 and be set up for a relatively quick induction. I wouldn't vote for him in year 1 either - combination of year 1 penalty plus trashcangate. He's apologized. I'm willing to move on. He's a Clemente award winner so that neutralizes things for me.
   279. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 28, 2022 at 05:05 PM (#6111083)
Rolen up to +4 all of a sudden; 4/18 in conversions isn't great but it's a lot better than 1/11 was.

Whatever momentum Vizquel seemed to have regained in the first few voters appears to have been a mirage; he's -2 so far, with 5 total votes putting him behind Rollins, Buehrle, and K-Rod.
   280. alilisd Posted: December 28, 2022 at 06:04 PM (#6111088)
In general, players who get very close on the BBWAA ballot get in via the vets pretty quickly; other players also get in, but the 50-plus percent players are at the front of the line. (As you note, Hodges took a while, but he did get in, and if memory serves nobody else who cleared 50% via the writers has had to wait nearly as long as Hodges.)


Is this really true though? Not a HOF electoral history expert, but in looking at the B-R page showing inductees by year it looks like the VC started putting in players (and others, but we're concerned with players) in the 50's. Prior to that it was the Old Timers Committee, which did a pretty good job, IMO. Looking at a sampling of those players from the 50's to early 60's it's a pretty mixed bag. Many of those I looked at had very low voting percentages before going in via the VC. Some were over 50% by a bit, but many never even came close to that. 1963-64 was a very busy time for this early VC with 9 players being elected. Of those 9 it's a mixed bag: Eppa Rixey 12% in 1958, 52.8% in 1960, 30.6% in 1962, previous high 14% in 1956. Sam Rice over 50% in 1960 and 1962. Elmer Flick 0.4% in 1938. John Clarkson 6.4% in 1936 and a nominating vote of 0.5% in 1946. John Ward 3.8% in 1936. Heinie Manush topped out at 9.4% in 1962. Tim Keefe 1.3% in 1936. Burleigh Grimes 26.9% in 1962, high of 34.2% in 1960. Maybe those 19th Century guys are not representative, but that leaves 2 moder guys who made it to 50 and 2 who didn't. The next 5 VC inductions in the 60's never made it anywhere near 50%, and then you start to get into the Frankie Frisch era. Of the 10 VC selections in the 80's only Slaughter made it over 50% and most of the others were never close, I think Mize was the only one who topped 40%. The 90's were a bit different with 3 of 9 VC selections having exceeded 50%, but it was way over 50%, in fact over 70%.

I'm getting tired now, so I'll go in reverse order and look back from McGriff to Santo in 2012 to see if recent trends have changed. I think they might have, but let's see. Santo is a no, despite being put back on the ballot, or perhaps because of it, he topped out at 43.1%. Trammell no, 40.9%. Jack The Jack, yes. Smith, yeah I guess, 50.6% in 2012, but fell right back below and stayed below for the next 5 years (understandably, I suppose). Baines, no, not even close. Simmons, one and done. Oliva, no (topped out at 47.3% in 1988, then fell all the way back to 30.2% the next year and only made it back above 40% 4 years later, but finished below 40% in each of his last 4 years). Minoso, no. Kaat, no. So 7 of the 9 never made it to 50%. I'm really not seeing any evidence that 50% is any sort of significant event for a VC/Era selection.
   281. alilisd Posted: December 28, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6111090)
#266 - What happened to Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling - and what's currently happening to ARod - is "ahistorical" as well. "Cheaters" don't follow traditional voting patterns. So yes, until I see otherwise, I fully believe that half the writers not voting for Beltran never will.

I hope I'm wrong.


This is one of the takeaways Posnanski seems to have from his current reflection on what the HOF wants. They seem not to want controversy, but, of course, they do want inductees. So Beltran is a likely no, if voters follow his line of reasoning, while a vote for Rollins may be perfectly reasonable. Now I don't know that any significant number of writers will follow that line of thinking, but I do see Beltran suffering in a post PED world more, much more, than he would have if the character clause hadn't come front and center over the past decade plus.
   282. SoSH U at work Posted: December 28, 2022 at 06:32 PM (#6111093)
I'm really not seeing any evidence that 50% is any sort of significant event for a VC/Era selection.


Obviously a lot of players below that have gone in, but getting that kind of support from the writers is absolutely the best path to election by a veteran's committee.
   283. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 28, 2022 at 06:52 PM (#6111096)
Many of those I looked at had very low voting percentages before going in via the VC. Some were over 50% by a bit, but many never even came close to that.

I didn't say that the VC only selects players who do well with the writers - just that players who don't get in via the writers but clear 50% almost always get in via the VC. Players since 1950 who have cleared 50% on the BBWAA ballot without clearing 75% are:

Bonds/Clemens/Schilling (possibly special cases, didn't get in on their first VC try, too early to say how they'll do long-term)
Lee Smith (fell off in 2017, got in via VC in 2019)
Jack Morris (fell off in 2014, VC in 2017)
Orlando Cepeda (fell off in 1994, VC in 1999)
Jim Bunning (fell off in 1991, VC in 1996)
Nellie Fox (fell off in 1985, VC in 1997)
Gil Hodges (fell off in 1983, VC in 2022)
Sam Rice (fell off in 1962, VC in 1963)
Eppa Rixey (fell off in 1962, VC in 1963)
Edd Roush (fell off in 1960, VC in 1962)
Max Carey (fell off in 1958, VC in 1961)

Everyone up to B/C/S is in. Most of them got in very quickly via the VC. If Sheffield can clear 50% with the writers (and doesn't get Bonds/Clemens treatment) then he will very likely get in via the VC. Same for Andruw, or Helton, or (sigh) Wagner.
   284. Booey Posted: December 28, 2022 at 06:59 PM (#6111097)
#280 - Drop the bar to 40% and the trend becomes more clear. Going backwards over the last 50 years, here's all the players without clear character issues who hit 40% on the writers ballot that weren't inducted by the BBWAA:

Fred McGriff (k, 39.8% if you want to get nitpicky) - HOF
Alan Trammell - HOF
Jack Morris - HOF
Lee Smith - HOF
Ron Santo - HOF
Steve Garvey
Orlando Cepeda - HOF
Bill Mazeroski - HOF
Tony Oliva - HOF
Jim Bunning - HOF
Roger Maris
Nellie Fox - HOF
Gil Hodges - HOF
Red Schoendienst - HOF
Maury Wills
Enos Slaughter - HOF
Richie Ashburn - HOF
Pee Wee Reese - HOF
Hal Newhouser - HOF
Johnny Mize - HOF

17/20 (85%) who reached 40% on the writers ballot (without being deliberately snubbed) went on to be VC selections, and many of the most recent ones did so on their first VC ballot. So yes, there are a few Ted Simmons' and Harold Baines' who the VC picks despite the writers not giving them the time of day, but for the most part, it appears the VC still very much takes it's cues from the BBWAA. Get 40% on the writers ballot and you have a well over 90% chance (including all the players who the writers eventually selected) of getting elected eventually.

Edit: And what SoSh and Eric said
   285. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 28, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6111102)
Going backwards over the last 50 years, here's all the players without clear character issues who hit 40% on the writers ballot that weren't inducted by the BBWAA:

Wills and Garvey have their own flavor of character issues, if I'm not mistaken.
   286. The Duke Posted: December 28, 2022 at 09:08 PM (#6111114)
Wills was a creature of his time. He's like Bruce Sutter in my mind. The difference is there Sutter got in before people realized he wasn't that good. Wills time is gone.

Garvey. Again, he doesn't hold up well under sabr-stat scrutiny, but he was definitely a marquee player in his time. The longer it takes for him to get another vote the less likely it becomes. I believe he was getting some traction with the last vote and might have gone in on the next one if they hadn't have changed the format.

Both of these guys meet the "fame" criteria and I personally wouldn't vote for either of them now, I've gotten comfortable with Garvey going in. Wills is a bridge too far. A better version of Wills got in, Lou Brock.
   287. alilisd Posted: December 28, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6111121)
Lee Smith (fell off in 2017, got in via VC in 2019)
Jack Morris (fell off in 2014, VC in 2017)
Orlando Cepeda (fell off in 1994, VC in 1999)
Jim Bunning (fell off in 1991, VC in 1996)
Nellie Fox (fell off in 1985, VC in 1997)
Gil Hodges (fell off in 1983, VC in 2022)
Sam Rice (fell off in 1962, VC in 1963)
Eppa Rixey (fell off in 1962, VC in 1963)
Edd Roush (fell off in 1960, VC in 1962)
Max Carey (fell off in 1958, VC in 1961)


OK, but the last four don't help your case because they never made it anywhere near 50%. The top two I think what we're seeing there is partly writers voting and partly Era committees focusing on a more limited ballot. Cepeda and Bunning support your theory, Fox and Hodges do not as they took a long time to go in it certainly doesn't appear they went to the front of any line. Still I concede it certainly won't hurt anyone's chances.
   288. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 28, 2022 at 10:26 PM (#6111128)
OK, but the last four don't help your case because they never made it anywhere near 50%.

Umm... yes they did?

Rice: 53.2% on the 1960 ballot, 50.6% in '62
Rixey: 52.8% on the 1960 ballot
Roush: 54.3% on the 1960 ballot
Carey: 51.1% on the 1958 ballot
   289. The Duke Posted: December 29, 2022 at 09:30 AM (#6111153)
First time voters may push Rolen over. Good sign for him
   290. cookiedabookie Posted: December 29, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6111155)
Honestly, at this point I won't be surprised if Helton and/or Wagner get in before Rolen. I think they all get in via the writers ballot. It will be interesting to see if Sheffield gets in via the writers before his years run out.
   291. alilisd Posted: December 29, 2022 at 11:46 AM (#6111162)
Umm... yes they did?


Oh well my bad memory kicking in again! :-)
   292. alilisd Posted: December 29, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6111163)
I guess when you "create" JAWS you have to believe your own hype, and so Jaffe votes for Wagner.
   293. The Duke Posted: December 29, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6111175)
So now where there was only a couple possible HOFrs, we have Rolen, Helton, Sheffield, Jones, Wagner and Kent knocking on the door and Beltran looks to be positioned for a run in future years. That's a lot for a "weak" ballot
   294. SoSH U at work Posted: December 29, 2022 at 12:47 PM (#6111176)

So now where there was only a couple possible HOFrs, we have Rolen, Helton, Sheffield, Jones, Wagner and Kent knocking on the door and Beltran looks to be positioned for a run in future years. That's a lot for a "weak" ballot


The others have relatively decent chances (though I'm highly doubtful Sheffield can get there), but Kent is just hoping the Vet's committee next door hears him knocking.
   295. alilisd Posted: December 29, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6111195)
So now where there was only a couple possible HOFrs, we have Rolen, Helton, Sheffield, Jones, Wagner and Kent knocking on the door and Beltran looks to be positioned for a run in future years. That's a lot for a "weak" ballot


Not sure where you get this perspective from. It's certainly very much a minority view around here at least. For example, on the most recent mock ballot BBTF selected 6 players for induction, half of whom we had already elected. Remove those three from the ballot and it's possible Jones would have been elected as he still received 73.3% of the votes. I think 3 voters said they would have voted for other players but for the 10 player limit. Of the 30 ballots cast, 13 had the full 10, and 20 had 8 or more, only 5 ballots had 5 or fewer. I don't think BBTF users find it a weak ballot, simply a more open ballot than has existed in a decade.
   296. alilisd Posted: December 29, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6111202)
First public blank ballot on the tracker submitted by Ron Cook. A Pittsburgh guy it seems? Specifically cites character clause as a disqualifying Beltran in his radio show/podcast
   297. Karl from NY Posted: December 29, 2022 at 03:34 PM (#6111205)
I don't think BBTF users find it a weak ballot, simply a more open ballot than has existed in a decade.


It's weak in the sense that there are no no-doubt inner-circlers. It may ultimately have just as many HOFers as the peak-backlog mid-2010's ballots, but the range of them is borderline to average by HOF standards rather than historically great planet-eaters.
   298. Booey Posted: December 29, 2022 at 05:10 PM (#6111212)
#297 - ARod certainly counts as a no-doubt inner circler...

Beyond that, I agree. The next best player is one of Rolen, Beltran, or Manny, who all topped out right at 70-ish WAR.
   299. The Duke Posted: December 29, 2022 at 05:46 PM (#6111224)
If there wasn't doubt about Sheffield he's be in, but it seems the voters are beginning to separate the PED guys. Obvious cheats like McGwire, Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Manny, Sosa and A-Rod aren't getting in. Ortiz, Bagwell, Piazza and Pudge got a pass. Sheffield seems to be going the Ortiz route. Pettite? Maybe a reassessment. New guys showing up. Beltre will get a pass and I can't think of anyone else. Bartolo colon ? Braun?

And I guess Kevin Brown might be on the "he won't get in" list
   300. SoSH U at work Posted: December 29, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6111225)
And I guess Kevin Brown might be on the "he won't get in" list


His Mitchell Report Appearance is only one of Kevin Brown's problems, but not the biggest one.
Page 3 of 8 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sheer Tim Foli
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogCurve honor 'worst baseball player of all time'
(62 - 11:49pm, Oct 03)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Hall of MeritReranking Pitchers 1893-1923: Ballot
(7 - 11:44pm, Oct 03)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogJim Caple, former ESPN, national MLB writer, dies at 61
(6 - 11:14pm, Oct 03)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for the October Postseason 2023
(78 - 11:02pm, Oct 03)
Last: Tom and Shivs couples counselor

NewsblogWitt becomes first Royal in 30-30 club: 'No one like him'
(10 - 11:01pm, Oct 03)
Last: Lars6788

NewsblogOT - NBA Off-Pre-Early Thread for the end of 2023
(153 - 10:59pm, Oct 03)
Last: Tom and Shivs couples counselor

NewsblogFormer Dodgers star Trevor Bauer settles lawsuit with woman who first accused him of sexual assault
(11 - 6:48pm, Oct 03)
Last: baxter

NewsblogMiami Marlins’ Luis Arraez runs away with NL batting title, makes MLB history in process
(13 - 6:28pm, Oct 03)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogMets fire Buck Showalter after disappointing season
(36 - 5:35pm, Oct 03)
Last: sunday silence (again)

NewsblogMariners' Cal Raleigh apologizes for calling out team after season-ending loss
(11 - 4:56pm, Oct 03)
Last: bookbook

NewsblogAppreciating 4 all-time legends as they play their (potential) final games
(48 - 4:43pm, Oct 03)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogInside Colorado’s three decades of mediocre baseball
(6 - 3:23pm, Oct 03)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogPhil Nevin out as Angels manager after missing playoffs again with Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
(13 - 3:03pm, Oct 03)
Last: Walt Davis

Sox TherapyRIP Tim Wakefield
(19 - 2:54pm, Oct 03)
Last: Jay Seaver

NewsblogOT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start
(137 - 2:01pm, Oct 03)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

Page rendered in 0.6819 seconds
48 querie(s) executed