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Saturday, March 28, 2020

Baseball Question of the Day: Who’d you think would be a star but wasn’t?

Today’s question is about those guys we thought would be the next big thing but, for whatever reason, weren’t. The players we thought would be stars but ended up average Joes. Or, perhaps, somewhat less-than-average Joes.

In this I’m not looking for the tragic cases of stars cut down in their youth by tragedy or sickness or, perhaps, even guys who had major injuries before they were able to make The Leap. I mean, sure, if you want to include those, that’s fine, but I’m thinking more here about guys who just never lived up to expectations, whether those expectations were informed and reasonable or not.

A lot of these might be guys who were just coming up when you were a kid. Back when you didn’t quite understand what made for a can’t-miss prospect and what didn’t. Or at least the people telling you that guy would be great didn’t understand it. That’s certainly the case for me. My guy: Kevin Coffman.

Kevin Coffman was an 11th round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in 1983 out of Austin, Texas. Eleventh rounders aren’t exactly comers, but if you followed the Braves from, oh, 1985-87 — which is when I got into that team — things were pretty bad on the big club. The pitching was particularly bad. In 1986 club had the second-worst staff in the National League and the 1987 club was dead last in runs allowed. There was a kid down on the farm in 1986 and most most of 1987 named Glavine who turned out to be something — and the Braves traded for a fella named Smoltz in the middle of the ’87 campaign who might could be something — but if you watched WTBS broadcasts at the time they only wanted to talk about Kevin Coffman. He was referred to, often, as the Great Pitching Hope for the Atlanta Braves.

So, who’d you put on your list?

 

QLE Posted: March 28, 2020 at 12:44 AM | 154 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: stars

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   101. Booey Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:06 PM (#5934635)
And flip
   102. CStallion Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:15 PM (#5934636)
Brett Lawrie


I logged on just to post that. He seemed to be injured a fair bit but not sure why his career ended so early and abruptly.
   103. CStallion Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5934639)
Delgado was also a catcher in the minors, no?


Yes, but I keep forgetting he ever got a chance to play the position in the majors, and always think of him just as a first baseman.


I still remember a Blue Jays weekly show on either CTV or TSN did a profile on him when he was in AA or AAA. There were some action shots that showed a pretty good arm but he was very raw and didn't "look like a catcher".
   104. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5934640)
Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith. 1989 Rookie of the year and runner up. I was sure they were going to be great. Not so much.
   105. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:29 PM (#5934641)
   106. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:31 PM (#5934643)
Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith. 1989 Rookie of the year and runner up. I was sure they were going to be great. Not so much.

much like Al Bumbry and Rich Coggins in 1973
   107. John DiFool2 Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5934645)
I recall w/ Bumbry they would play "Flight of the Bumblebee" before every PA of his. 24.5 WAR tho doesn't exactly make him a washout.
   108. Jay Z Posted: March 28, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5934652)
Mike Anderson. He came through the Phils system with Greg Luzinski. He was supposed to be the equal of Luzinski at the plate, with a cannon arm and could play CF or RF. The dude just never hit -- -0.8 bOWAR, 2.8 bDWAR.

He was hit in the head by a pitch in ST in 1972 and was carried off the field on a stretcher. That might have had something to do with it.
   109. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2020 at 12:34 AM (#5934657)
Sparky did hype Gullett,

I was thinking more Torey Luvullo. A web search turns up this about Ed Armbrister (300 career PA): "He could run like heck, he was a good outfielder, his offense . . . he wasn’t gonna set no records with his bat or anything, but he was a great extra man to have. Any club could use a guy like that – a very valuable person to have on your club.”

At various times about the solid but usnpectacular Dan Driessen: "I like the kid's swing ... I'm convinced now that he can be an accomplished third baseman ... He's going to be one of the best hitters around if he can keep his feet on the ground."

Nothing wrong with that, no manager is gonna run a young player down in the press and even less so when they're being asked about other teams' players. But at the time when Sparky said something along the lines of "that kid has one of the smoothest swings I've ever seen" about Thompson, I took him seriously. Maybe during the commercial break he said "but he's got no power and can't get around on an inside fastball."

Other Cubs: Folks have mentioned Cruz. I don't remember how good I thought he was gonna be (I don't recall being very excited) but he certainly seemed he'd be solid. In DM, I used to use him as a long reliever/swing man guy (he had a high reliever durability rating as I recall). But I was pretty excited about Mike Harkey back in the day. And he did get good results for a while but got hurt a lot and that was that.

I think most of the non-Cubs I got excited about had decent careers so aren't particularly interesting Jose Cruz Jr certainly turned out much worse than I expected. Somebody mentioned Febles and I thought I got a real steal in my (1999 or 2000) AL-only saber fantasy draft.

Somebody suggested we make fewer such mistakes around here now. Could be. Might just be the wisdom of age -- we've all seen enough flop we keep our expectations better in check. I've transitioned to being skeptical about almost every prospect. I think it's safe to say we learned those PCL stats ain't all they appear to be and TINSTAAPP. I'm sure there are exceptions but I've learned that when there are questions about whether a prospect can stick at a position, the answer is no.
   110. Gch Posted: March 29, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5934658)
I logged on just to post that. He seemed to be injured a fair bit but not sure why his career ended so early and abruptly.


I was curious about this too and there's around 100 "what happened to Brett Lawrie" articles / posts and very few answers. There's lots of speculation about Lawrie being a clubhouse cancer or wound way too tight, but he was hurt in a lot of ways and appeared to have nagging lower body/leg injuries that just piled up.

When his tenure with the White Sox ended, it was originally listed as a left hamstring injury, then a knee injury, or it was "a knee and calf problem". Lawrie gave an interview where he claimed the orthotics in his shoes "caused a ripple effect of issues in his body" In Spring Training 2017, when Lawrie was a free agent his agent claimed Lawrie had "minor soft-tissue discomfort in his lower body".

When the Brewers signed him last year, they said he wasn't injured but they needed to do lots of tests "to understand what’s going on with Brett’s body from a physical perspective" and that eventually he'd start his comeback attempt in the minors. When they released him in June without a single appearance, Stearns said "We all agreed on a tentative timeframe with certain benchmarks. We weren't able to meet those benchmarks... We just couldn't get there. Brett put a lot of effort into this."
   111. Gch Posted: March 29, 2020 at 12:43 AM (#5934659)
My answer is halfway in between the Jays string of "with his bat, he can't miss" prospects (Josh Phelps, Travis Snider, the perpetually annoying Adam Lind), but I'd also like to go with Daisuke Matsuzaka. I mean, okay, he went 33-15 with a 124 ERA+ and and 9.5 bWAR (but only 5.7 fWAR) his first two seasons, but from the GYROBALL hype and his World Baseball Classic performance his career (and pitching style) was just such a disappointment.
   112. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 29, 2020 at 02:44 AM (#5934665)
Sure, he accumulated 20 WAR, but according to SI, Ben MacDonald was going to be the greatest pitcher ever.

And of course the aforementioned Matt Wieters, boy did BP suck eggs on that one.
   113. Tony S Posted: March 29, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5934676)
it's hard to put someone with almost 53 lifetime WAR in this category, but Cesar Cedeno probably fits, considering his start


Cesar Cedeno's career arc makes more sense if you add two or three years to his reported age.

Mine is Pat Mahomes Sr. First time I saw him pitch -- in a middle relief stint -- he looked like he had #1 starter stuff. Drafted him in my Strat league. He had a journeyman career, with one good year for the Mets much later, and became a household word later for other reasons.
   114. Lars6788 Posted: March 29, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5934679)
Pat Mahomes Sr.


I don’t know if I’m misremembering things outright but I remember him being interviewed on an ESPN interview show called Up Close back when he was a rookie and maybe have been considered a guy that was a future star.
   115. pikepredator Posted: March 29, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5934684)
Kal Daniels. Injuries may have caused a lot of his decline, so he may not be a case of simple failure to make it.


He was part of the 1984 Vermont Reds team that forever made my nine-year old self a baseball fan. Going to games here in Burlington at Centennial field was the best thing ever. That team also had Chris Sabo and Paul O'Neil, along with several other guys who made the majors.

But Scott Terry was the clearly best of the bunch. An insane pitching season (which I realize is partially buoyed by a single HR in 144 innings over 20 starts). He was the one who was definitely going to be a superstar. He dominated. Until he didn't - just couldn't figure out major league hitters.
   116. John DiFool2 Posted: March 29, 2020 at 10:14 AM (#5934688)
Sure, he accumulated 20 WAR, but according to SI, Ben MacDonald was going to be the greatest pitcher ever.


Say the following very slowly: he's now 52 years old. Seems like just yesterday he was the 2nd coming of Jim Palmer.
   117. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 29, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5934701)
Just remembered Matt Anderson. Big guy, dominant in college, #1 draft choice by the Tigers, threw 100 with movement and reasonable control, dominant in his first half season in the minors, was in Detroit the next year. I had him pegged as a dominant closer. He immediately started walking everybody and later got hurt. (It's quite possible he walked everyone because he got hurt right away.) He wound up with a 5.19 ERA in 256 career innings.
   118. Howie Menckel Posted: March 29, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5934702)
Sports Illustrated's 1978 cover boy "THIS YEAR'S PHENOM" may take the cake.

108 MLB OPS+ at age 20 hints at just that.

then..... career 106 OPS+ in just 1596 PA for the Royals, Reds, Mets, Cardinals, and Mets again.

but enough about Clint Hurdle.
   119. ajnrules Posted: March 29, 2020 at 08:11 PM (#5934817)
The Royals had quite a few one-hit wonders pass through their fair city during their down years with guys like Bob Hamelin and Angel Berroa. As a fan during this time we were so desperate for some positives that we were hoping they'd be good, but there was nothing in their performance to suggest that their rookie success was sustainable. That didn't stop us from hoping, though.

And then there was Carlos Beltran. One out of three successes isn't bad.
   120. bachslunch Posted: March 29, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5934819)
I always wondered what happened to Jim Nash. Rookie season in 1966 of 2.06 ERA, 12-1 W-L record, 166 ERA+, was nowhere near as good after that. Unlike players like Wayne Simpson and Mark Fidrych, he didn’t suffer from arm trouble best as I can tell.

Wally Bunker has a terrific rookie season in 1964 as well (2.69 ERA, 19-5 W-L, 134 ERA+), had two notably less good seasons, then suffered arm injury problems.
   121. villageidiom Posted: March 29, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5934840)
Ellis Burks was a pretty big deal. But I always thought he was going to be a much bigger deal than he actually became.
   122. TR_Sullivan Posted: March 30, 2020 at 01:18 AM (#5934864)
Rangers edition

Thomas Diamond
Layce Nix
Ruben Mateo
Benji Gil
Omar Poveda
Lisalberto Bonilla
Ben Kozlowski
Julio Borbon
Andrew Faulkner
Cody Buckel
   123. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 30, 2020 at 05:07 AM (#5934871)
I had bought into the idea that Banuelos, Brackman, and Betances were going to be the foundation of the great Yankee teams of the 2010s. And I had Banuelos as the best of those in my imagination.
   124. Esoteric Posted: March 30, 2020 at 07:46 AM (#5934874)
As a kid who watched the Orioles growing up, the obvious answer to this question was Ben MacDonald, but as it turns out he had a decently respectable career, and only injury ended his playing days. That said, he was supposed to be the reincarnation of Palmer, Flanagan, and McNally combined.

The Nationals haven't really been around long enough to have any major disappointments like this, but a lot of people kept waiting for Ryan Church to develop into a great player and it never happened.
   125. Ron J Posted: March 30, 2020 at 08:39 AM (#5934880)
#23 Pat Lennon's an interesting case. While a lot of other guys mentioned here ran into injury problems, he did time as a young player. (The then Chris Kahrl said he was convicted of the crime of being an armed black man in the South, but his organization seems to have felt differently)

The combination of his strength, the reputation from this and the sense of simmering anger (seriously, saw him here in Ottawa and he seemed to radiate anger. Maybe I saw him on a bad day. Maybe I saw what I expected to see) you could feel around him seems to have cost him a lot of chances. He could hit. He had some speed.

   126. Ron J Posted: March 30, 2020 at 09:19 AM (#5934885)
#48. Militello contracted a serious case of Steve Blass disease. I recall reading about him attempting to pitch a simulated game and the batter had to wear full catcher's gear.
   127. McCoy Posted: March 30, 2020 at 09:35 AM (#5934888)
Toe Nash
   128. John DiFool2 Posted: March 30, 2020 at 09:40 AM (#5934889)
Ellis Burks was a pretty big deal. But I always thought he was going to be a much bigger deal than he actually became.


Still got 50 WAR...

Mike Greenwell is a much better example. Both his power and plate discipline started dropping at age 25, and basically never stopped deteriorating. Burks however survived his 2 last crap seasons with the Sox and reinvented himself as a slugger.

Jacoby Ellsbury too. After that insane 2011 season, he never had anything close. I still recall his very first AB, a routine grounder right at the SS that he easily beat out. Best case scenario would have been Kenny Lofton, if not Jim Edmonds.
   129. Blastin Posted: March 30, 2020 at 10:22 AM (#5934900)
Eric Duncan. And Drew Henson.
   130. McCoy Posted: March 30, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5934934)
Haven't seen his name come up but Hector Villanueva. He somehow came up during a time when the Cubs actually had a bunch of catchers in the system. He looked like he could hit but fizzled at 26.
   131. McCoy Posted: March 30, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5934935)
Haven't seen his name come up but Hector Villanueva. He somehow came up during a time when the Cubs actually had a bunch of catchers in the system. He looked like he could hit but fizzled at 26.
   132. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 30, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5934948)
Militello contracted a serious case of Steve Blass disease. I recall reading about him attempting to pitch a simulated game and the batter had to wear full catcher's gear.

at Columbus in 1994, he p[itched 3 2/3 inniings and gave up 19 BB's (!!)
   133. Alex Vila Posted: March 30, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5934961)
I skimmed the whole thread.. and.. no one seems to have mentioned Jeremy Giambi yet, which is surprising, considering the thread that exploded when he was traded from the A's. I was there, 3000 years ago...
   134. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 30, 2020 at 01:48 PM (#5934973)
Fernando Martinez: He hit .333/.389/.505 in A-Ball at 17 and hit .290/.337/.540 in the IL at age 20. He had a hard time staying healthy and just never developed.
Lastings Milledge: He was the youngest guy in the majors, a guy the Mets refused to trade for Barry Zito or Manny Ramirez, which may have cost them a World Series considering they made it to Game 7 of the NLCS with Perez/Maine/Glavine/Trachsel rotation in 2006. He still managed to make a fair bit of money playing baseball as he did play in Japan and did OK there.

I am surprised the name Rick Ankiel didn't show up. Although with pitchers, injuries are always a factor.
   135. Traderdave Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5934979)
I skimmed the whole thread.. and.. no one seems to have mentioned Jeremy Giambi yet, which is surprising, considering the thread that exploded when he was traded from the A's. I was there, 3000 years ago...


And Jeremy had better minor league number than Jason.
   136. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5934981)
Although with pitchers, injuries are always a factor.


I'm pretty sure a healthy Jose Rijo would've been one of the best pitchers of the '90s.
   137. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5934990)
Re: #131, you didn't see Villanueva come up? McCoy, just look at post #130!
   138. SoSH U at work Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5934997)
Lastings Milledge: He was the youngest guy in the majors, a guy the Mets refused to trade for Barry Zito or Manny Ramirez, which may have cost them a World Series considering they made it to Game 7 of the NLCS with Perez/Maine/Glavine/Trachsel rotation in 2006.


On the other hand, Manny ain't making that catch.
   139. Ron J Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5935000)
#134 Feh. Ankiel got way more hits than anybody would have projected.
   140. PreservedFish Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5935002)
Lastings Milledge has something in common with Sean Burroughs, who I was thought was a guaranteed star: they were both in the pages of Baseball America at very young ages. They used to note who the "best 13-year old baseball player in the country" was, stuff like that.

Burroughs had a great eye, a left-handed swing as an infielder, big muscles, pedigree. The muscles never did anything, and I think he had a drinking problem.
   141. Jundt Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5935005)
Besides Weiters, BP was also all-in on Mike Zunino. I take all C prospects with a grain of salt now.
   142. Sweatpants Posted: March 30, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5935034)
Besides Weiters, BP was also all-in on Mike Zunino. I take all C prospects with a grain of salt now.
Did he get their vaunted future MVP prediction?
   143. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 30, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5935037)
On the other hand, Manny ain't making that catch.

On the other other hand, he probably slashes better than .185/.185/.259 against the Cardinals.
   144. McCoy Posted: March 30, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5935043)
It seems to me when it comes to prospects the better question is what did BP get right. It seems like they went all in on plenty of flame outs and never was's.
   145. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 30, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5935044)
Tim Pyznarski, Pat Dodson, Mike Campbell, Kevin Elster, Joey Meyer, Jose Lind, Steve Searcy, Mike Harkey, Alex Sanchez, Mark Gardiner, Eric Anthony...in retrospect, maybe I should have been a bit more skeptical of Topps as a kid.
   146. Ned Garvin: Male Prostitute Posted: March 30, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5935049)
Re: Sean Burroughs
I lived in SD when he came up, and the hype was LARGE. But after watching him play a lot, he earned the nickname WSB from me - World's Slowest Bat. Seriously, it's a miracle he ever got it out of the infield, no matter how good his eye or bat control might have been.

As a kid in Seattle, we heard a lot about Dave Hengel for a year or two. More than I recall hearing about Edgar, back when AAA was in Calgary.

As for my own personal misfires, a couple of relievers I thought were going to be awesome were Ricky Bottalico and Jeremy Fikac. Both threw hard with lots of movement and excellent breaking pitches. Probably injuries got to both of them, I don't know.
   147. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 30, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5935052)
Re: Sean Burroughs
I lived in SD when he came up, and the hype was LARGE. But after watching him play a lot, he earned the nickname WSB from me - World's Slowest Bat. Seriously, it's a miracle he ever got it out of the infield, no matter how good his eye or bat control might have been.

we had this discussion 10 years ago and decided that Burroughs is the biggest (in size) banjo hitter in MLB history
   148. SoSH U at work Posted: March 30, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5935058)
we had this discussion 10 years ago and decided that Burroughs is the biggest (in size) banjo hitter in MLB history


Technically, it's been 10 years since you brought up the fact we previously had the discussion about the biggest banjo hitters in MLB history.

Damn, we've been here a long time.

Oh, did anyone ever mention Terry Forster? Sure, he didn't get a lot of ABs and .397 is a little higher lifetime BA than you expect out of your banjos, but he didn't have a lot of pop and he was pretty damn hefty.

   149. PreservedFish Posted: March 30, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5935062)
Re: Sean Burroughs
I lived in SD when he came up, and the hype was LARGE. But after watching him play a lot, he earned the nickname WSB from me - World's Slowest Bat. Seriously, it's a miracle he ever got it out of the infield, no matter how good his eye or bat control might have been.


10 years ago I said "he swung like a Japanese female knuckleballer."
Also that he had "this pathetic loopy Luis Castillo style swing that was clearly unsuitable for grown men."

Sorry for the misogyny!
   150. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 30, 2020 at 05:35 PM (#5935074)
You're canceled, PF.
   151. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 30, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5935132)
Speaking of Luis Castillo, I remember this homer clearly when his name comes up.
   152. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 30, 2020 at 10:35 PM (#5935134)
Every time I check back to read this thread, chatmonchy's "To You Who Was Not Able to Become a Star of the First Magnitude" starts running through my head...
   153. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 30, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5935144)
Wally Bunker has a terrific rookie season in 1964 as well (2.69 ERA, 19-5 W-L, 134 ERA+), had two notably less good seasons, then suffered arm injury problems.

the Orioles in the 60s had a bunch of them--Steve Barber, Chuck Estrada, Tom Phoebus
   154. Alex Vila Posted: March 31, 2020 at 01:39 AM (#5935158)
Apropos to nothing, I’m convinced that the kid they were scouting in Clint Eastwood’s Trouble with the Curve was inspired by Burroughs.
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