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Monday, January 11, 2021

Bauer’s case for richest AAV deal legitimate?

A look at Bauer’s record shows a Cy Young Award-caliber 2018 season (2.21 ERA over 175 1/3 innings for the Indians) during which he made his first All-Star team, followed by a dip in ‘19 (4.48 ERA with the Indians and Reds) caused in part by a lingering right ankle injury that he pitched through. Then came ‘20, when Bauer was the best pitcher in the NL, resulting in a landslide win in the Cy Young Award vote.

“The biggest difference is that he has really struggled at times at the MLB level,” an NL executive said, noting Bauer’s inconsistency during the first three full years of his career. “But he’s been durable and he’s on the upswing.”

Strasburg’s deal marked his second big contract after he opted out of the final four years of the seven-year, $175 million extension he signed with Washington in 2016. When he signed his big deal in on Dec. 9, 2019, Strasburg was already 31 years old and had spent parts of 10 seasons in the Majors—including 426 days on the injured list.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2021 at 01:48 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: trevor bauer

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 11, 2021 at 05:17 PM (#5999076)
pass
   2. The Duke Posted: January 11, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#5999095)
Pass
   3. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:25 PM (#5999107)
1 NT
   4. JJ1986 Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#5999109)
Double
   5. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:41 PM (#5999110)
Anyway, buried at the end of the article we at least get a mention of the other key component:

Bauer is unlikely to land a contract near the total value that Cole received, but he doesn't appear to be seeking a deal as lengthy as the nine-year pact the Yankees gave Cole. Bauer may not even be looking for the seven years the Nationals gave Strasburg, who was 18 months older than Bauer is now.

Bauer at, say, 4/$148 looks a lot different than Bauer at 8/$290 (duh). I'd be surprised if he's not looking for at least 6 years but I just hate FA headlines like "record AAV" or "seeks $150 M" when we aren't told (rumors) about the years. (OK, I'm not sure I've ever seen the "record AAV" headline before.) But it's simple and fundamental -- contracts are in years and totals (or years and AAV) and 5 vs 6 years is a big deal much less something as vague as 5 to 9. Without both pieces of info, the rumor is useless. (which the writer sorta cops to in the final sentence.)
   6. depletion Posted: January 12, 2021 at 08:49 AM (#5999191)
3 Clubs
...
Angels, Blue Jays, Mets
   7. depletion Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:04 AM (#5999193)
Seriously, exactly 1 full season with an ERA under 4.18, and that was 27 starts. For $35M plus per year. I guess it might make sense for a short-term deal for a playoff-ready team.
   8. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:10 AM (#5999195)
I'd be surprised if he's not looking for at least 6 years but I just hate FA headlines like "record AAV" or "seeks $150 M" when we aren't told (rumors) about the years.

I suppose it's not safe to assume anything with Bauer, but given that he was previously gung ho about chasing one-year deals I thought it was understood that he wouldn't take anything approaching the length of Cole's contract.
   9. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#5999204)
He is willing to sign a 69 year deal.
   10. DCA Posted: January 12, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#5999275)
Prediction: 5 years $169,000,420
   11. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:27 PM (#5999291)
I'd be surprised if he's not looking for at least 6 years but I just hate FA headlines like "record AAV" or "seeks $150 M" when we aren't told (rumors) about the years. (OK, I'm not sure I've ever seen the "record AAV" headline before.)
Bauer crowing about being the AAV champion or whatever sounds like just the sort thing he would do.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:13 AM (#5999422)
I thought it was understood that he wouldn't take anything approaching the length of Cole's contract.

Riiiight. I mean if the man wants to tell me he'd prefer 3/$120 to 5/$150 I might believe him but there is a 0% probability that Bauer would turn down 9/$324 M. (I think there's a near 0% chance any team would offer such a thing.) And yes, I know you just specified "length" so you weren't claiming otherwise.

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