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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Judge’s OPS+ is 213. It makes him more than twice as good as a league average 2022 batter. It is one of the 25 best seasons in Major League history;...
But it’s more than that, too. Just look at the 22 seasons superior to Judge’s on the OPS+ list. Realize there’s a “yeah-but” attached to almost all of them, a reason to raise at least an eyebrow or two. ...
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1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 20, 2022 at 05:55 PM (#6097146)Every Aaron Judge PA for the rest of the season will be ‘must-see TV’ for many.
Leaving aside whatever we might mean by "twice as good", no it doesn't. It means, give or take, that he has a OPS 56.5% greater than the league average OPS+. Or, even more precisely, his OBP and SLG are, on average, 56.5% better than the league average OBP and SLG respectively.
I will never understand why the folks who created OPS+ didn't average OBP+ and SLG+ instead of adding them then subtracting 1.
His Rbat is 75 ... another very, very big number. Of course the league average batter's Rbat is 0 by definition so we can't express that in percentage/relative/ratio terms. His oWAR is 9.6 but that (roughly) comps him to the average RF/CF ... that's a very good number but not unprecedented really.
B-R has something called Rbat+ but it's description makes no sense to me -- it's Rbat as calculated for WAR but "indexed to the environment the player played in" (I thought it already was) "where 100 is league average." But what's in the denominator? Whatever it is if his Rbat is 75, "it" must be about 35 ... but the league average player would not produce an Rbat of 35 (by definition). It could be "relative to Rbat of a replacement-level hitter" which would be about -22 relative to average which would put Judge at 97 and league average at 22 but that would produce an Rbat+ of nearly 450. (Judge's Rbat+ is 212.) Anyway, Rbat+ suggest Judge is producing twice as many somethings as the average player where the average player is producing 35 somethimgs.
Now it could be, essentially, RC/G. Judge is credited with 11. Given average scoring is 4.22 (AL) or 4.30 (NL), I assume that's lgRC/G ... which would put Judge over 250 in RC/G+.
In terms of all-time ... by RC not even close (105th currently, probably about 50th by season's end). Base-out runs added is similar. I think neither of those adjusts for scoring context though. Now by adjusted batting wins, he's 35th and might crack the top 20. But by offensive win% (I'm not sure this is expected to change), he's way down at #135 on par with Dick Allen's 1972.
I neither support nor disdain any of those stats I just quoted, don't know enough about them.
By oWAR he's tied for 44th and again might crack the top 20 by season's end. Given most everybody ahead of him is a 1B/LF/RF, if anything Judge's time in CF slightly "inflates" his oWAR relative to the folks ahead of him. That said, Bonds (a few times) is the only post-expansion player in the top 20. Trout has a season tied at 24 and one tied at 31. That's extremely impressive company.
- the season isn't over yet. His rate stats could go up or down. The article dings Bagwell for 1994 strike, because it is more likely his rate stats go down the longer he plays. Well we will see how the last 15-ish games go.
- Between 1973 and 2020, 49 years, the AL batting champ always hit .326 or better. This year the NL has three guys over .320. But Judge may sneak in a batting title in the high 310s.
The article makes a case. It's ... a stretch. I guess if we say no season ever before 1960 counts.. Babe Ruth was not the one of the best players ever.
1. 2002 Bonds (244)
2. 1920 Ruth (239)
3. 2001 Bonds (235)
4. 2004 Bonds (233)
5. 1923 Ruth (231)
6. 1921 Ruth (224)
7. 1957 Ted Williams (223)
8. 1924 Hornsby (221)
9. 1941 Ted Williams (221)
10. 1957 Mantle (217)
11. 1926 Ruth (216)
12. 1946 Ted Williams (215)
13. 1884 Fred Dunlap (214)
14. 2003 Bonds (212)
15. 1927 Ruth (212)
16. 2022 Judge (210)
17. 1924 Ruth (210)
if you use OWP instead of OPS+, Judge does not look as good. Of course OWP includes things like stealing bases and avoiding GIDPs. Whether you call that "hitting", I call it "offense" or "helping to score runs".
One of the junk stats I've always enjoyed is the base-out runs/wins added, which looks at the outs/baserunner situation without factoring leverage. So it would account for GIDPs but not steals. Judge almost doubles the runner up (Jose Ramirez) in those.
edit: Oh, I supposed you mean across both leagues. Then yes. Only the Phillies with 64.
Trivia: When was the last time a player out homered any team? In his league? In either league?
Obviously you can't plan for that aesthetic; it's serendipitous. If you simply make it easier to hit home runs or score goals, a lot of people will do it and it's not as interesting. It's the cases where one player does it and others (for whatever reason) can't, that is marvelous.
1) Judge has 30 HR at home, and 30 away
2) Judge hit 161 home runs before his 30th birthday. With 57 so far since he turned 30, he's a good bet to hit more in his 30s than 20s :)
This is just based on putzing around on Baseball Reference for a few minutes, so it may not be right:
Either league: 1949, when Ralph Kiner hit 54 HRs while the White Sox only hit 43 as a team. (Ted Williams tied the White Sox with 43 that season.)
Same league: 1948, when the Senators only hit 31 HR and DiMaggio hit 39 and Joe Gordon hit 32. (Ken Keltner tied the Senators with 31.)
Worth noting: Dave Kingman was only one behind the 1979 Houston Astros - he hit 48, they hit 49.
Note: I'm not dissing The Babe! He's still probably the GOAT; that specific factoid just doesn't do it for me. Seems more like an accident of timing, similar to George Mikan's dominance in the 1950's nba.
That's correct. Schmidt in 1981 also missed by one, homering 31 times and the Padres hit 32.
Here's another related question: In what year did what visiting slugger hit more home runs in a park than the entire home team hit in its own home park?
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