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Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Bieber, Bauer make Ohio home of Cy winners

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER

Shane Bieber, RHP Indians

The 25-year-old Bieber was the unanimous choice to win his first Cy Young honor, finishing ahead of Kenta Maeda and Hyun Jin Ryu in the AL. Bieber’s 41.1% strikeout rate was the highest ever by a qualified starting pitcher. His 1.63 ERA was the lowest by a qualified AL starter since MLB lowered the mound in 1969, and his .167 opponents’ average tied Pedro Martinez in 2000 for the lowest since ’69….

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds

The 29-year-old Bauer beat out Yu Darvish and Jacob deGrom. Bauer led the NL in ERA (1.73), ERA+ (276), WHIP (0.79), opponents’ average (.159) and shutouts (two). He ranked second only to deGrom in strikeouts (100) and strikeouts per nine innings (12.3).

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 11, 2020 at 07:23 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cy young award

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   1. The Mighty Quintana Posted: November 11, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5988390)
Just checked Aubrey Huff's twitter to see if he offered his congratulations, and now I need a bleach shower...
   2. JJ1986 Posted: November 11, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5988393)
I really don't understand why Bauer was a huge favorite. Because he's obnoxious? Because his ERA started with a 1? He didn't have a clearly better year than Darvish and deGrom.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: November 11, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5988394)
   4. DCA Posted: November 11, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5988395)
Well, leading the league in ERA and WHIP is usually a good way to be the CY favorite.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5988396)
Trevor Bauer (...) has faced the weakest opposition of any qualified pitcher in baseball.


The only way we'd know that in 2020 is incorporating the postseason into the equation, in which case Bauer didn't exactly hurt his argument.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: November 11, 2020 at 09:22 PM (#5988400)
The only way we'd know that in 2020

Reds & Cubs in same division so comparison to Darvish shouldn't be a problem (relative to any other 60-game comparison), pretty close by anything other than ERA (e.g. Darvish led the league in FIP and wins, same WAR, slightly fewer Ks but fewers walks too, etc.)
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: November 11, 2020 at 09:27 PM (#5988402)
Reds & Cubs in same division so comparison to Darvish shouldn't be a problem (relative to any other 60-game comparison), pretty close by anything other than ERA (e.g. Darvish led the league in FIP and wins, same WAR, slightly fewer Ks but fewers walks too, etc.)


We can know relative to other pitchers in the Centrals. But with three closed systems, we can't really say that his opponents were worse than anyone else's in baseball, as BPro was claiming.

It would have been more appropriate to award one Cy/MVP for each of the three geographic regions (in which case Bauer definitely wouldn't have won) rather than breaking it down by AL and NL.
   8. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 11, 2020 at 09:36 PM (#5988405)
I would have liked for deGrom to have a full season to defend his reign NL Cy Young. I do think he's still the "Best Pitcher in Baseball" although others may have claim.
   9. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 11, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5988407)
Some hitters are much more challenging for pitchers to face than others.


Some crack analysis from that BPro article linked in [3].
   10. flournoy Posted: November 11, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5988417)
This is the Reds' first ever Cy Young Award winner. Now only the Rangers, Rockies, and Marlins remain without one.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:01 AM (#5988428)
We can know relative to other pitchers in the Centrals. But with three closed systems, we can't really say that his opponents were worse than anyone else's in baseball, as BPro was claiming.

Which is why I noted that the comparison to Darvish was completely legit.
   12. Rally Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5988430)
We can know relative to other pitchers in the Centrals. But with three closed systems, we can't really say that his opponents were worse than anyone else's in baseball, as BPro was claiming.


We can do a good job of estimating. For one, it was not a closed system before 2020 so we can go by preseason projections to tell which conferences (I'm using the term to refer to the west, central, and east conferences) are better. If MLB stayed with this system going forward, it would get progressively harder to know which conference was the best. But we could still infer this from players who move between conferences, same way we can infer strength of the AL vs NL before interleague play started.
   13. SoSH U at work Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5988431)
We can do a good job of estimating. For one, it was not a closed system before 2020 so we can go by preseason projections to tell which conferences (I'm using the term to refer to the west, central, and east conferences) are better. If MLB stayed with this system going forward, it would get progressively harder to know which conference was the best. But we could still infer this from players who move between conferences, same way we can infer strength of the AL vs NL before interleague play started.


I understand that. But we can't do it with the certainty that BPro is suggesting. There's still too much change in MLB from one season to the next, something the actual results between the teams bring to light.

Hell, the FA doesn't even address the idea the cross pollination that occurs in every other season was missing this year.

   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 12, 2020 at 09:19 AM (#5988434)
I don't think there should be any asterisks for the Dodgers, who really plowed through a lot of good teams in the playoffs and based on recent seasons are clearly the best team in the league.

This? This deserves an asterisk, both players.
   15. flournoy Posted: November 12, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5988453)
Both Bieber and Bauer had higher WAR than Steve Bedrosian in his Cy Young season, despite the 60-game schedule...
   16. Rally Posted: November 12, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5988456)
Not true for Rollie Fingers, 1981 though. Fingers even had more innings than either Bieber or Bauer. Having a 109 game schedule compared to 60 worked in his favor, but he had the starter/reliever thing working against him.
   17. John DiFool2 Posted: November 12, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5988464)
Is this the first time that recent teammates won in the same year?
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: November 12, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5988466)
There was an extra 1/2 year between, but Porcello and Scherzer both won in 16, both playing for a different team than where they were teammates.
   19. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 12, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5988483)
Small sample size, but we do know that all 7 Central teams in the playoffs got bounced in the first round and that they had a 2-14 record cumulatively against the East/West.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5988498)
I'm not sure how many times former teammates won in the same year period. The two already mentioned. Eck and Maddux briefly overlapped with the Cubs in 86, winning in 92. That's the only other one I noticed. I may have missed some was going mainly off memory. (And doesn't include minors, college, high school -- I am way too lazy for that.)

To be clear, teammates prior to winning, not after.
   21. Rally Posted: November 12, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5988501)
Looked at the article linked in #3. Bauer is facing weak run scoring teams, that much is correct. Overall though, the Central is not much worse than the East or West, in spite of the playoff results.

Looking at my preseason projections, overall they were very close. If they all played each other I would have expected the average West team to be .500, the East win 82 games, and the Central go 80-82. But how they get to those records is very different. Runs per game by conference:

East 4.95
West 4.74
Central 4.25

So the central should have a similar record against the theoretical average opponent, but get there with more defense and less offense. I wonder if BB-ref is accounting for this in the ERA+ and OPS+ calculations. They really should be setting conference averages, not league averages, for this season.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2020 at 01:22 AM (#5988554)
Given Bauer's 276 ERA+, I am guessing not. However for WARpit it should be roughly self-correcting since RA9opp will be lower. WARpos might be messed up though.

Central R/G

CWS 5.10, Min 4.48, CHC 4.42, Det 4.29, StL 4.14, CLE 4.13, KCR 4.13, MIL 4.12, Cin 4.05, Pit 3.65

The Central had 6 of the 7 lowest-scoring and only CWS were above ML average. I'm too lazy to calculate the ERA but 8 of 10 had a better than MLB average ERA (Pit and ML-worst Det) and same with RA/G. MLB average RA/G - ERA was about .21 so assume that's true for Central as well and an ERA around 4.04 and Bauer's ERA+ drops to about 234. If we guesstimate the Eastern Conference to 4.74 then deGrom moves up to 199. Bieber takes a similar drop to Bauer to 248. Maeda's also in the Central so that won't help him. Ryu up to 176.

If they had gone with E/C/W awards we'd have had an epic Bauer-Bieber battle in the Central; I'll assume deGrom wins the East. Now I've never heard of Dinelson Lamet but he finished 4th in the NL with a shiny 2.09 ERA and 12 K/9 but Zac Gallen has him beat on WAR (gotta be the PFs) and the ALW only adds Lancy Lynn, Chris Bassitt and Liam Hendricks so I'll go with Lamet I guess.

Given these aren't official, I'll call them the 2020 Pud Galvin Awards. The 2020 Jack Glasscock Awards are pretty clearly Freeman, Betts and Abreu.

   23. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 13, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5988631)
Bauer's stated goal is to win three Cy Youngs (I think it was in "The MVP Machine"). Congrats to him! (And I wish Cleveland had kept him all along).

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