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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, February 18, 2021Blake Snell: I’ve Got Some Things to Say
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: February 18, 2021 at 09:36 PM | 39 comment(s)
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1. Mayor Blomberg Posted: February 18, 2021 at 10:36 PM (#6005752)@RaysBaseball
Feb 11, 2021
Replying to @Wendys
Go ahead, Wendy. Absolutely roast us. Keep it spicy like your nuggs.
Wendy's
@Wendys
We're surprised you didn't pull your social media manager in middle of writing that great tweet. #NationalRoastDay
This was pretty from Wendy's Twitter account, which can be pretty savage.
I am going to go out on a limb and bet that San Diego has better burritos than Tampa Bay.
It is not possible.
iirc, dopey manager Cash (aka his overloards in suits) had decided BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTED that Snell would get a quick hook absolutely independent of how well he was pitching.
no need for Cash to even watch the game. he could sit in the clubhouse and watch a "Real Housewives" episode or whatever, and someone can just stop by when the third time in the order arrives so he can pretend to be managing.
if more pitchers are like Snell, maybe more managers will have to manage.
makes more sense than
No info and Snell has to conserve energy thinking he'll go longer.
Though- he pitched great regardless.
Snell's longest outing in the regular season was 5.2 IP. He made 6 postseason starts in 2020, which were all between 4 and 5.2 innings, and that included a one-hitter in the WC game. So I don't get why he was surprised here. I mean I didn't like it either, but Cash yanking him after 5.1 in game 6 was completely in line with how Snell was managed all year.
this is - ok, was - an entertainment product.
many, many years earlier - ok, 4 years earlier - a sold-out Citi Field crowd stood on edge wondering if Matt "The Dark Knight" Harvey would come out to start the NINTH inning of Game 5 of the World Series with a 1-0 lead.
guess what - he did, and the moment is frozen in time forever as the crowd went wild and a million fans at home and in bars got a helluva adrenalin charge. they are GOING FOR IT with their big gun!
the obvious mistake MGR Terry Collins made was not deciding that Harvey will be pulled unless it's a 1-2-3 inning. instead a walk, SB, double....
but dammit, at least he gave Harvey - and the fans - a chance at one helluva memory.
but the Mets lost, you say.
well, so did the Rays.
I know which version I'd rather watch.
also, Maddon is rivaled only by Bob Brenly in the category of "Worst Pitching Decision-Making In a Series By A World Series-Winning Manager, 1903-2020."
So, understanding the third time through the order penalty, and figuring out which relievers match up better against the other team isn't managing?
What extra effort or brilliance is there in waiting until the starter is so gassed everyone in the ballpark can see it before pulling him?
It was still dopey. Snell faced fewer batters than all but one Ray starter in the series, so it wasn't as if Cash was wed to the idea of lifting a pitcher at x batters faced or x number of pitches. He chose this particular time, and he chose to replace him with a pitcher who had been pitching like crap for two weeks (but still had the shiny regular season ERA to show on the teevee when he entered the game).
Maddon made some blunders. But the distance between Brenly and Maddon (or whomever else is in the runner-up position) is Secretariat at the Belmontesque.
Whether Brenly alone is enough to overcome both Maddon and Tito in the worst managed series, both teams, is a more interesting question.
That said, I get where you're coming from. It was not fun to watch Maddon in 2016.
Cash also saw that the Dodgers put up a .500 OBP against Tampa starters through the first five games of the series. Why should he be wed to a strategy that hadn't worked so far?
First time I think I've ever agreed with YC on something.
Yet he remained betrothed to giving the ball to Nick Anderson, who was positively lights on for most of the postseason.
It's been 2 decades, so I had to remind myself what blunders were made. Oh yeah, Byung-Hyun Kim. That was tough. At least he didn't screw up the easy decisions - Start Schilling and Johnson in 5 out of the 7 games, and bring Johnson back for relief in game 7.
If only that was all.
In Game 1, knowing he might bring Schilling back in Game 4, he let him throw seven full with a 9-0 lead after 4.
In Game 3, he started his fourth starter Brian Anderson, who was pretty lousy in 2001, rather than No. 3 man, Miguel Batista, who was pretty good that year, because he wanted the lefthander to face the Yankee lineup in Yankee stadium. Of course, Batista started Game 5 in that very same Yankee Stadium, and thus wasn't fully rested when the series shifted back to Arizona.
In Game 4, three times leadoff man Tony Womack reached against the not-dominant starter Orlando Hernandez. All three times he was advanced to second on bunts by the No. 2 man in the order, where he died all three times.
In Game 6, knowing he might want to bring the Big Unit back in relief in Game 7, Brenly allowed him to throw seven full innings despite the Diamondbacks leading 15-0 after four innings, a lead never once blown in the history of MLB.
Good point.
I'm not sure anyone is saying "He should have pulled Snell because Anderson was such a great bet to dominate the Dodgers". The quick hook was what was called dopey, and there really isn't much information to support that it actually was "dopey".
He did have to replace him with somebody, though, as well as the guy he replaced Snell with and so on, some of whom were probably running on fumes and none of whom was all that good to begin with.
Blake Snell was the Rays most talented pitcher, in a season when his workload had been significantly lessened from previous years. He didn't throw that many pitches in that game. And the pitches he threw were as low-stress as you can get in a Game 6 (only three batters faced from the stretch). Kevin Cash let many of his starters throw more pitches and face more batters during the course of the postseason.
Say what you will about Snell, we've had that discussion a few times. But Hendricks? Game 7 in 2016 was his shortest start of the season (63 pitches), with the exception of NLDS G2 in which (if memory serves) he was hit by a line drive. He had only one start shorter than 80 pitches in the regular season, and in that one, he was lifted for a pinch hitter; that workload taxed him so much that he won the NL ERA title, and not two weeks earlier had thrown 7.1 shutout innings (88 pitches) to clinch the pennant. And in Game 7, he was relieved with a runner on base (one runner, two outs, four-run lead, not the direst of circumstances) by a pitcher who literally everyone knew the Cubs should not be inserting mid-inning with runners on base. It was, at the time, an obviously ridiculous move, and the results (single + error followed by 2-run wild pitch) were well-deserved.
but I can't believe any serious student of analytics is going to tell me that humans are so robotic that taking into account other factors known only, perhaps, to a manager about the pitcher should not factor in as well.
Snell had not pitched that many innings all season. does that mean you must stop him at his "limit" - or does it mean that you kept him fresh precisely so that, in the biggest spot of his life, he has a little more left in the tank?
nothing on the Excel chart quite gives you that answer, and it would be silly to presume otherwise.
I thought it was a stupid move at the time too, but these numbers are very convincing. (Although of course you'd need to use them to get expected performance for Snell the next inning and compare it to expected performance of Anderson or whoever you've got in mind.)
That thread, and his ridiculous asterisked comment, make me wonder if this stat overstates things.
He says, "* and this doesn't even include the players they left on base!" But of course it does. That's how ERA works, the guys who are left on base and come around to score are charged to the pitcher who let the man reach. For example, here, Snell has an ERA of 27.00 for that inning, as he recorded one out and was responsible for one run.
And I'm curious if that doesn't ultimately, and unfairly (at least in the context of this analysis) tip ERA in favor of relievers in mid-inning situations. Since earned runs are assigned entirely to the pitcher who allows the runner to reach*, that's got to create a condition where the initial pitcher is being assigned more responsibility for run scoring than his actual performance dictates.
*And for the record, I'm not saying that, for instance, a guy who allows a double and the reliever who allows that player to score should be charged equally, as yielding the baserunner is still vastly more meaningful than any subsequent advancement. Just that we should be able to recognize that, as was the case here, Snell doesn't own 100 percent of the responsibility for the Barnes run, though ERA disputes that.
At this point the argument is "its dopey because actually the next decision was the dopey one" and some Joe Morganesque "I refuse to address the data because I watch the game"
I would also bet that every single streak has the pitchers regressing to mean the following inning. 1 inning, 2 inninga, 3 innings, and so on.
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