For this to make sense, Kirk has to catch a lot.

Yeah, he's not playing at 1B over Vlad. Belt is trending down, but he's quietly a very good hitter when he's healthy, almost always well above league average in OBP.

I kind of really like this move for Toronto. It's fairly low risk for them and it's essentially a bet that Belt's 2022 was driven more by injury than by decline. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up turning in a very nice season and in the event that he doesn't, it's no great loss.

I'd forgotten how well he hit 2020-21. Alas, adjusting for the lower offense of 2022, his 2022 looks pretty similar to his 2019.

For this to make sense, Kirk has to catch a lot.

Not really. He was probably only slated for 70-80 C starts and 50 DH starts anyway (74/49 last year). So he continues to get (nearly) all the DH starts against LHP, Belt gets most of those vs RHP.

Not really. He was probably only slated for 70-80 C starts and 50 DH starts anyway (74/49 last year). So he continues to get (nearly) all the DH starts against LHP, Belt gets most of those vs RHP.

Well, that's assuming Belt is a better hitter vs. RHP than Kirk or Jansen is. At this stage in their careers, I'm not sure that's true.

This feels high for a platoon DH coming off a bad year. Even with the jump in salaries. Longoria got 1/$4mil, Wil Meyers got 1/$7.5mil. Then again, JD Martinez got 1/$10mil, Gallo 1/$11mil, and Drury 2/$17mil.

it's essentially a bet that Belt's 2022 was driven more by injury than by decline.

He'll be 35 in April, so that's maybe not the best bet...

Worst case - he flops and the Jays are out $9.5 mil and a few DH PA's for Kirk/Springer/Vlad. Ends up being either released or used as a PH for Kevin Keirmeier.
Best case - he hits like it is 2021 (157 wRC+) and the Jays give him DH nearly all the time allowing Kirk/Springer/Vlad more full rest time vs partial rest at DH.

I don't see the downside.

.138 ISO off of a 12.6% Barrel%. If healthy (big if), I like his chances of putting up a big season seemingly out of nowhere. Especially now that he's outside of SF and the shift will be banned.

Well, that's assuming Belt is a better hitter vs. RHP than Kirk or Jansen is. At this stage in their careers, I'm not sure that's true.

That's an argument to not sign Belt in the first place ... and I'm not sure I disagree. But presumably they signed him to play him. My point is that regardless of Belt's presence on the roster, Kirk was most likely scheduled for about 80 starts at C and 50 at DH and this signing doesn't affect that at all.

The side info: Pretty much every team uses a 100/60 to 80/80 C split these days. Realmuto, Rutschman and there must be a couple of guys not springing to mind are the only guys who might make it to 120-130 C starts. And theoretically Kirk could do 80 at C and 80 at DH but the Jays will want to give him a full day's rest every week I bet because that's how teams do it nowadays. Sure, plans change and if Kirk and Jansen are both posting 130 OPS+ again, Jansen's PT will increase and the Belt signing would have been something of a waste -- nice problem to have.

I like his chances of putting up a big season seemingly out of nowhere.

He had a 165 OPS+ across 2020-21.

A post so nice, I posted it twice

And theoretically Kirk could do 80 at C and 80 at DH but the Jays will want to give him a full day's rest every week I bet because that's how teams do it nowadays..

Belt would also let the Jays give Kirk or Vlad Jr. a full day's rest against tough righties without losing any offensive oomph. (But not Jansen. Jansen has one of the most extreme reverse platoon splits I can remember.)

Belt would also let the Jays give Kirk or Vlad Jr. a full day's rest against tough righties without losing any offensive oomph. (But not Jansen. Jansen has one of the most extreme reverse platoon splits I can remember.)

Vlad also has a big reverse split, and Kirk has none.