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Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez could move before deadline, says MLB insider Jon Heyman

Appearing on the Big Time Baseball podcast with Tony Gwynn Jr., Heyman pegged the chances of a Bogaerts trade at 20% and said there’s a 25% chance Martinez is dealt. Considering how the Red Sox still say they’re aiming to contend in 2021, it appears the club would have to be blown away with an offer to trade either 2019 All-Star.

“I would say Xander Bogaerts has a shot to be traded,” Heyman said. “I’m going to put that at 20%. I’d say that J.D. Martinez, who also has an opt-out and makes $19 million a year—that’s a tough contract for a DH, even though all the teams use a DH this year—I think it’s not going to be that easy to move him. I would say it’s a greater likelihood. 25%, I’ll put for J.D. Martinez, (Bogaerts’) teammate, to be moved.”

Last week, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom refused to label any of his players as untouchable but said he considered Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers to be “core players” who are vital to Boston’s future. Bogaerts, who signed a $120 million contract extension last spring, can opt out of his deal after the 2022 season and will have a full no-trade clause kick in shortly after the deadline.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 25, 2020 at 09:10 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox, xander bogaerts

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   1. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:14 AM (#5972021)
Clicking through to the article, Heyman puts it at 20% that XB gets traded, and 25% for JDM. I've gotta say, why in the hell would they trade Boegarts? His contract isn't bad for an All-Star level player (it does have an opt out).
   2. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5972027)
The thought process on what I've read is that he'd opt out after 2022 and the Sox don't want to "get nothing" for him.

This (and Rosenthal's comments earlier in the week) read a lot more like trial balloons than something actually happening. The Sox aren't afraid of using the press for their means and this reads like a "hey, we are open for business so if you want to blow us away go for it" rather than a shopping trip by the Sox.

I won't be surprised if Martinez is dealt, I think there that makes sense but trading Bogaerts on the heels of trading Mookie would be destructive to the franchise I think.
   3. pikepredator Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5972028)
That would be heart-breaking. Letting Mookie go sort of made a small amount of business sense, if I squint I can justify it assuming they weren't going to pay him anyway.

If Bogie gets traded, the other team better be angry at how much they had to give up.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: August 25, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5972138)
I'll give you one guess who their agent is. Just Heyman being Meyman.

I think it would be very hard to put together a deal for X. You'd have plenty of takers but he should get a good return and with no minors, it's just too hard for the Red Sox to decide who they'd want in return. It helps that surely the return for him would include an alternate site top prospect type but are teams allowed to scout other teams' alternate sites or do we just assume some team's #1 or #2 prospect is doing well? But I'd think he'd also draw some decent throw-ins and how are the Red Sox gonna know who they want? Plus if he can't opt out until after 2022, you've got plenty of time to deal him or (here's a thought) get better and convince him to stay.

JDM's a guy who got caught out by the virus. He had a chance to opt out but I think wisely stayed put on a decent deal that would get a lot better if he had another good year. Now, opting out looks pretty good -- maybe he'd have gotten 3/$70 or maybe he'd have gotten a 4th year. Instead he makes "only" about $9 M this year (which obviously would have happened anyway), has a 2/$38 option and his "first half" hasn't gone particularly well.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 25, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5972149)
It helps that surely the return for him would include an alternate site top prospect type but are teams allowed to scout other teams' alternate sites or do we just assume some team's #1 or #2 prospect is doing well?
No scouts permitted, although teams can opt to participate in shared alternate training site data & video pools.
   6. The Duke Posted: August 25, 2020 at 07:48 PM (#5972155)
JD’s value is much higher now with everyone using the DH. You just have to be able to say his slow start is just a slow start. I’d love to see the Cardinals get him. They need legit power in their lineup and their DH position has been terrible.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 25, 2020 at 08:33 PM (#5972162)
Mitch Moreland is batting .340/.440/.792. You’d think Boston could find a team willing to take a chance that his magic pixie dust would last another month or two.
   8. villageidiom Posted: August 26, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5972215)
If teams are interested in getting JDM, here's what they're trading for:

- 1 month (plus playoffs?) at $4.4 million, for a DH.
- UNKNOWN commitment for 2 years for $38 million, again for a DH.

I'm thinking what a team would be willing to give up to get that is going to be limited because of the second part. Like, if JDM didn't use the opt-out and a team was getting JDM for the stretch run and 2 more years, for just over $42 million, yeah, they might be willing to give up something in return for that (esp. if Boston includes cash in the deal). But they're not going to give up nearly as much for the 1-month rental. And at the time of the trade they won't know what they are getting.

So now let's flip it to what Boston would want in return. Yes, they want salary relief; but for 2020 there isn't much to gain. Yes, they want prospects, but they're not going to get them without absorbing the salary for 2021-22 - and even then, the team trading for JDM won't want to give them up for two years they don't even know they'll get out of JDM because of the opt-out.

I think the moment JDM chooses not to use his opt-out is the moment Boston is most likely to trade him. And then maybe the trade probability is 25%. Before then I think it's closer to 0%.

Bogaerts is already close to 0%. Not because Boston won't put him on the table, but because what Boston will want in return for him will be far more than what any team would be willing to trade.

But yes, Walt's first sentence in #4 is the reason these names are arising. What concerns me there is if Heyman is serving Boras here - as he usually appears to do - and assuming that Boras is serving his clients, then floating the trade possibilities of JDM and Bogaerts might be a sign that JDM and Bogaerts want out. I really hope Bogaerts isn't nudging his agent to drum up trade interest.
   9. gef, talking mongoose & suburban housewife Posted: August 26, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5972216)
I'll give you one guess who their agent is. Just Heyman being Meyman.


Like that'll fool anybody.
   10. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 26, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5972231)
Mitch Moreland is batting .340/.440/.792. You’d think Boston could find a team willing to take a chance that his magic pixie dust would last another month or two.


The Mariners are getting a .650 OPS out of the 1B position and a .528 OPS out of DH. Now that they traded Vogelbach the DH has been Tim Lopes, who's supposed to be a second baseman. He just has to be normal Mitch Moreland, no pixie dust, to help them out. The struggling 1B is a rookie first-round pick so maybe Mitch will be a good role model.

Still not used to speculating about potential DHs for the National League.
   11. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 26, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5972235)
I see BB-ref can sort all teams by "MLB WAR By Position". By DH the worst teams are the Mariners, Tigers, Rangers, Angels, Brewers, and White Sox (all -0.6 or worse). The only team with more than 0.3 WAR from DH is the Twins, with 1.2! That's Nelson Cruz for you.

Mariners - not competitive
Tigers - not competitive
Rangers - not competitive although they might like Mitch Moreland back
Angels - not competitive
Brewers - they are using Ryan Braun at DH - won't give up on him.
White Sox - they are using Edwin Encarnacion at DH after giving him a big contract - would they give up on him already?

The A's are 21-10 and getting nothing out of Khris Davis. They very well might want Moreland.
   12. Rally Posted: August 26, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5972245)
Moreland is a very good defender at first, no reason to just look at teams needing a DH for him.

Sure, Moreland would help the Mariners, but given their place in the standings no point in trading anything of future value for him.
   13. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: August 26, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5972267)
I really hope Bogaerts isn't nudging his agent to drum up trade interest.
Oh c'mon.

I mean it's not like he signed a 6-year extension at an extremely reasonable price a season before being FA eligible, only to see them 10 months later trade a teammate of 5+ seasons who is one of the [small number] best players in baseball a season early because they didn't want to pay him market value, and in the process enter a multi-year rebuild.

What? Oh.
   14. The Duke Posted: August 26, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5972312)
Existing opt outs are meaningless. Salaries are coming down and fast. Next year is more than likely to be another year with no or minimal fans. Then you have a work stoppage risk. In this environment, what player would throw away guaranteed 2019 salary commits to test this new world. Arenado? No way? JD? No way. If you trade for someone with an opt out, that’s the deal you are getting.

So I think the Red Sox can easily deal him for salary relief and a decent prospect or two.
   15. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 26, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5972322)
I think JDM might. His contract drops this year, it goes from $23.5 per year to $19.5 per year for the last two years of the deal so he's gotta do better than 2/38. Assuming he doesn't keep hitting .219/.308/.390 I don't think that's a particularly outrageous gamble on his part. Moreso if there is some kind of strike/lockout/stoppage protection built in (much the way Mookie's deal had a huge up front payment).

Arenado? Yeah there's no chance of him opting out.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 26, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5972344)
I think JDM might. His contract drops this year, it goes from $23.5 per year to $19.5 per year for the last two years of the deal so he's gotta do better than 2/38. Assuming he doesn't keep hitting .219/.308/.390 I don't think that's a particularly outrageous gamble on his part. Moreso if there is some kind of strike/lockout/stoppage protection built in (much the way Mookie's deal had a huge up front payment).
IIRC, these opt-out clauses require players to decide shortly after the World Series. It’s likely there will still be considerable economic uncertainty about the 2021 season then, which makes me think Martinez is unlikely to beat the $39M/2 years left on his current deal. Might be different if he was having a MVP-caliber year, but he’s not.
   17. villageidiom Posted: August 26, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5972380)
I think the other part of the calculus for JDM is beyond the 2 years. At the end of the current deal (without opting out) he'll be 35. If N/$X is what he can get at that age, can he do better than (2+N)/$(39+X) as a free agent this offseason? Between the uncertainty of the pandemic and his poor performance in 2020, he might think he needs those 2 years to reset his value and for the market to effectively reboot.

But that's a hell of a risk. A 35-year-old DH needs to be performing like... well, Nelson Cruz is now. So many 35-year-old DHs are basically replacement level players. If he waits a couple years, there's a decent chance N=0. He might not think that way, but if he doesn't want to take that risk he's better off opting out. Like, if he could get 5/$65 this offseason, that might be better than hoping he can get 3/$26 after age 35.

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