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Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Boswell: The Nationals were right to let their beloved stars leave

These days, your best deals are often the ones that didn’t get made. Washington illustrates the double-edged point. The Nats are burdened by a $245 million deal with Stephen Strasburg through 2026 at $35 million a year. Patrick Corbin, essential to the title but a horrid 21-51 since, is off the books after 2024. Then, free at last.

What’s easy to forget is that the Nats’ predicament could have been so much worse.

The $440 million and $215 million offers that Soto and Rendon turned down, and the free agent auctions the Nats refused to enter that brought Turner $300 million and Scherzer $130 million, may turn out to be the best billion dollars of deals never made. In real-time sequencing, the Nats would never have signed all of them. But if, for example, they’d just gone full-market on Soto and Turner, they’d have dug a payroll Grand Canyon.

Right now, the positions held in the Nats’ title run by those four wonderful stars, who’ll earn north of $125 million this season, are held by Abrams, 22, Gray, 25, Thomas, 27, and Candelario, 29, who earn $8.7 million. Combined.

You’ll never find a better illustration of MLB’s wicked sense of humor, as well as the foolishness of most massive contracts, than the current stats of those players.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 28, 2023 at 03:08 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals

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   1. Buck Coats Posted: June 30, 2023 at 12:18 PM (#6135548)
I'm sure the fans are thrilled at all the money the team is saving
   2. BDC Posted: June 30, 2023 at 01:10 PM (#6135555)
I noticed that Patrick Corbin is leading the league in Losses for the third straight year. If he stays atop that leaderboard he will be the first pitcher to do that since Phil Niekro (four times, 1977-80). Of course Niekro, while averaging 19 losses a year, was averaging 18 wins. Corbin's average for 2021-23 so far is 7-15.

Of course a bad W-L does not mean you're a horrid pitcher. Pedro Ramos of the Senators and Twins once led the league in losses four years running, .395 W%, and had an ERA+ of 102 over the span. Murry Dickson, with the Pirates, led three straight years in losses, .362, ERA+ of 106. Both Ramos and Dickson were All-Stars once during those stretches (as was Niekro).

Corbin, though, has in fact been horrid (.313, ERA+ of 70).
   3. Froot Loops Posted: June 30, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6135559)
Right now, the positions held in the Nats’ title run by those four wonderful stars, who’ll earn north of $125 million this season, are held by Abrams, 22, Gray, 25, Thomas, 27, and Candelario, 29, who earn $8.7 million.


Juan Soto is 24. Trea Turner, on the other hand, turns 30 today, so I guess the Nats were right to be rid of him.
   4. Adam Starblind Posted: June 30, 2023 at 02:10 PM (#6135562)
Anthony Young was about league average in the process of losing 27 decisions in a row. Those were some fun Mets teams.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 30, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6135567)
I think what bothered many fans is that the Nationals never made a best ‘no strings attached’ offer for Harper or Soto. IIRC, the Harper offer had so much deferred money that it was only ~ $270M in today’s $$ while the Phillies offered $330M with no deferrals. I don’t think the numbers were disclosed on Soto, other than the offer included substantial deferrals. That wasn’t going to get it done for either player.
   6. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: June 30, 2023 at 02:51 PM (#6135571)
Of course a bad W-L does not mean you're a horrid pitcher. Pedro Ramos of the Senators and Twins once led the league in losses four years running, .395 W%, and had an ERA+ of 102 over the span. Murry Dickson, with the Pirates, led three straight years in losses, .362, ERA+ of 106. Both Ramos and Dickson were All-Stars once during those stretches (as was Niekro).


heh. I was playing around on BBREF the other day, looking at Cub rosters from the 70's. Bill Bonham was always considered a disaster at the time because of his crappy W/L record. One year he went 11-22. Thing is now, by WAR, that 11-22 was better than Don Sutton's 19-9. From 1973-1977, Bonham went 50-68 with 14 WAR. In those same years, Sutton went 88-50 with 19 WAR. By average, its 10-14 2.8 WAR vs 16-10 3.8.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 30, 2023 at 03:47 PM (#6135575)
I think as a general rule its fine to let stars leave, but trading Soto was dumb. He's young and the perfect player to build around. Rebuilding is fine, but the fact the Nats have gone so cheap about it is mind-boggling. You're a big market team, you don't have to dumpster dive for Dominic Smith and Jeimer Candelario.
   8. McCoy Posted: June 30, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6135577)
They're a big market team that had their TV money in limbo and it still isn't all that great
   9. NaOH Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:02 PM (#6135578)
They're a big market team that had their TV money in limbo and it still isn't all that great

And they lost most of any potential windfall from winning the Series and the next year being the Covid year with fewer games and no fans in the stands.
   10. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:10 PM (#6135579)
Apropos for the heir to the franchise that was screwed over by the previous short season.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:12 PM (#6135580)

They're a big market team that had their TV money in limbo and it still isn't all that great


Fine, but their payroll is half what it was. They should be able to outspend the Brewers.
   12. McCoy Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:24 PM (#6135582)
So they can be in 4th place in the East?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:30 PM (#6135583)
Four teams can make the playoffs in a division! Seems dumb for any big market team to say "oh no, other teams are too scary and good"
   14. McCoy Posted: June 30, 2023 at 04:35 PM (#6135584)
I'm not saying that. I'm saying they suck and spending millions would do very little to change that
   15. Adam Starblind Posted: June 30, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6135590)
It’s fair to debate whether the Nats were justified in slashing payroll because of “where they are in the cycle,” but you still don’t trade a 23 year old with a career 157 OPS+ unless you are getting Juan Soto in return, which was literally impossible.
   16. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 01, 2023 at 09:04 PM (#6135764)
Bill Bonham was always considered a disaster at the time because of his crappy W/L record. One year he went 11-22. Thing is now, by WAR, that 11-22 was better than Don Sutton's 19-9.

The '74 Cubs pitching staff "benefits" from the team apparently having one of, if not the worst defense of all time; Bonham gets boosted to the tune of 0.80 runs per 9. I buy that the defense was bad, but I'm not confident it was THAT bad. (The team's FIP was 58 points better than its ERA, actually smaller than the 68-point difference they would manage in '75.)
   17. Howie Menckel Posted: July 01, 2023 at 09:37 PM (#6135774)
hmm, 1974 Cubs starts, 12+ games

C - SSwisher 85, Mitterwald 57
1B - Thornton 76, BillyWilliams 64
2B - VHarris 50, Rosello 33, Grabarkewitz 29, Sperring 27, Dunn 18
3B - Madlock 120, Fanzone 25, MattAlexander 13
SS - Kessinger 147
LF - JMorales 70, BWilliams 41, Cardenal 30, CWard 18
CF - Monday 135, JMorales 27
RF - Cardenal 105, JMorales 35, LaCock 15 (son of ex-"Hollywood Squares" game show host Peter Marshall)

I still have most of these Topps cards in a nearby closet.

let's see - Thornton and Madlock I think had iron gloves, and Williams was over the hill wherever he played. Cardenal, don't remember him as a "glove," and Swisher was only 22. and had Kessinger and Monday lost more than one step by then?

perversely fascinated by the 2B mess - OPS+ that year
Harris 51
Rosello 39
Grabarkewitz 91
Sperring 47
Dunn 145, in 80 PA

Never heard of Ron Dunn, but he was a September callup that year. maybe he takes over at 2B the following season?

nope. in 1975, Dunn went 3-for-7 in 7 1-at-bat appearances until late May. he seems to be a PH, at age 25, and ultimately bad at it. so he eventually was sent down for 2 months, finished 7-for-44 on the season, and his MLB career was over.

of course, the Cubs 2B in 1975 and beyond was Manny Trillo, acquired from Oakland in the offseason along with veteran relief help in Bob Locker and Darold Knowles in exchange for Billy Williams, who gave the A's a respectable season at DH and then a mediocre one before retiring. tough luck, Mr. Dunn !

Trillo didn't hit much for the Cubs, 1975-78, but improved after going to the Phillies with vets Greg Gross and Dave Rader for Ted Sizemore, Barry Foote, and Jerry Martin (I miss the days when 5 or 6 or more guys on Topps cards all could get dealt in the same trade !).
   18. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 01, 2023 at 10:09 PM (#6135790)
I miss the days when 5 or 6 or more guys on Topps cards all could get dealt in the same trade !

"Break out the airbrush!"
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: July 01, 2023 at 10:28 PM (#6135791)
haha, the ineptitude of some of the cards was a highlight.

as a very young kid, I was mystified by some of my first cards of 1968 and 1969. not only did some of these guys not even look to me like ballplayers, some had been out of the majors for years - looking at you, John Tsitouris 1968 Topps card !

he pitched in 1 MLB game in 1966 and 2 in 1967 - yet he got a card anyway that claimed "... the Reds are counting on this veteran for substantial support in '68."

sure they were - the 31-year-old was released in early May after 3 poor outings and never played in the majors again. Bobby Locke only pitched 121 innings in the bigs from 1962-67 - no problem, said Topps, which featured a card of him sans baseball cap and possibly not even in a baseball jersey, either. he then racked up a dreadful 6.44 ERA for the Angels in his final season, with a Topps fake-news blurb of "Bobby can be a valuable fireman for the Angels in '68." (to be fair, he did have 2 SV !)

the truth was, iirc, there was a dispute among many MLB players at how cheap Topps was with them. so not only did some has-beens/never-weres get cards, some of the 1968 and 1969 cards use the same photo (only the border was different).
   20. Sweatpants Posted: July 02, 2023 at 12:49 AM (#6135799)
The '74 Cubs pitching staff "benefits" from the team apparently having one of, if not the worst defense of all time; Bonham gets boosted to the tune of 0.80 runs per 9. I buy that the defense was bad, but I'm not confident it was THAT bad. (The team's FIP was 58 points better than its ERA, actually smaller than the 68-point difference they would manage in '75.)
He also had a lower FIP than Sutton that year and consequently beats Sutton in FanGraphs WAR as well. Not bad for a player I'd literally never heard of until this thread.
   21. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: July 02, 2023 at 09:29 AM (#6135805)
FWIW this place had another pretty long discussion on whether the 70’s Cubs defense really did suck like the numbers suggested. Several of the heavy hitters were involved and landed on yes it did. Think it was tied to fat guy being a hall of famer

Because the search sucks ass cannot find thread. But know it exists.
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: July 02, 2023 at 08:56 PM (#6135841)
ranking the worst-ever 3Bs for fielding

no idea why this is on MSN.com, but they rate them:

1. Wayne Gross
2. Bill Madlock
3. Butch Hobson
4. Edwin Encarnacion

(I was this years old the first time I ever saw a list with exactly four slots)
   23. SOLockwood Posted: July 03, 2023 at 08:53 AM (#6135850)
The 1968 & 1969 cards used the funky photos because players weren’t posing for new ones because the MLBPA was trying to get a better deal from Topps.
   24. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 03, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6135864)
Germans Were Right to Invade Russia

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