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Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Brandon Belt staying with San Francisco Giants, accepts $18.4 million qualifying offer

First baseman Brandon Belt accepted an $18.4 million qualifying offer from the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday rather than pursue bidders as a free agent.

Belt was the only one to accept among the 14 free agents who received the offers from their former clubs on Nov. 7.

Players who turned down offers included first baseman Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves), shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Justin Verlander (Houston Astros), right-hander Raisel Iglesias (Los Angeles Angels), left-hander Robbie Ray and second baseman/shortstop Marcus Semien (Toronto Blue Jays), outfielder Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati Reds), shortstop Trevor Story (Colorado Rockies), shortstop Corey Seager and infielder/outfielder Chris Taylor (Los Angeles Dodgers) and outfielder Michael Conforto (New York Mets).

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 17, 2021 at 07:42 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brandon belt, giants, qualifying offers

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   1. Mefisto Posted: November 17, 2021 at 10:11 PM (#6053386)
Belt's had some injury issues, but over the past 2 years he's put up 4.6 WAR in 560 PAs. The deal is a bargain for the Giants if he stays healthy.
   2. Howie Menckel Posted: November 17, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6053387)
Fantasy baseball projections have had Belt "on the cusp of a 30-HR season" since he debuted with 9 in 197 AB in 2011.

Belt HR by year since:
7, 17, 12, 18, 17, 18, 14, 17, 24*, 29

38 HR in 474 total AB in 2020-21

he's good, now up to a 125 career OPS+

"most similar player" toy for age 32-33 is.... J.T. Snow


* - pro-rated from 60-game season
   3. The Honorable Ardo Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6053415)
I'm surprised Belt took the QO. Any insights from Giants fans? It certainly seems he would have had leverage to negotiate a longer-term deal for at least the AAV of the QO.
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 18, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6053426)
Eh, he will be 34 in April, limited to 1B and, if not merely a platoon player, is significantly weaker against LHP. I don’t think that’s a lot of leverage in today’s FA marketplace.
   5. cookiedabookie Posted: November 18, 2021 at 01:20 PM (#6053439)
Eh, he will be 34 in April, limited to 1B and, if not merely a platoon player, is significantly weaker against LHP. I don’t think that’s a lot of leverage in today’s FA marketplace.

Especially when you're behind Freddie, Rizzo, and a potential Olsen trade. He would likely have to wait deep into the postseason until all those pieces were figured out to get his offers. With the CBA up, that's quite risky.
   6. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 18, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6053471)
Brandon Belt is going to be 34? Ugh.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6053475)
What I wrote in another thread (not brilliant, maybe not even helpful):

Belt -- I'm agnostic. The article cites his lousy statcast numbers. But it's pretty hard to ignore a 165 OPS+ over his last 600 PA ... and hard to ignore the meh numbers the years before that and his age. I'm too lazy to look him up on statcast but the avg EV and hard-hit numbers at b-r show him to have always bounced around by a couple MPH of EV and about 10 percentage points on hard-hit so it's not clear that he's in decline. He hit a lot more FBs this year so maybe he's added LA to his game ... or maybe that was his last ditch adaptation to a slowing bat and pitchers will adjust next year and that's it. If I were him, I'd rely on my agent but I'll guess that he can get something like 2/$30 out there and, at his age, I think that's better than 1/$18 and hope. Add in things like whether he really likes SF, etc.

(The agent might point out that Rizzo is also out there or, if the Yanks re-sign him, Voit will probably be available. And Freeman (whole other level) and Olson is probably available for trade. And that CJ Cron just had a nice season in Colorado, has very similar numbers over the last 4 years and just re-upped for 2/$14. On the other hand, if the NL adopts the DH, that should help Belt. Hence my agnosticism.)
   8. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2021 at 04:42 PM (#6053477)
I'm also curious about Taylor. I'll grant there seems to be more buzz about him than similar super-utility types (Hernandez, Marwin a few years ago) so he probably knows what he's doing but here's what I wrote in that same earlier thread: I agree Taylor has to take this. Hernandez got just 2/$14 last year. Maybe Taylor is better but even 2/$24 or 3/$27 are borderline relative to 1/$18 and take your chances ... and is anybody really gonna top 2/$24 or 3/$27? Granted, for whatever reasons, he made about 50% more than Hernandez in their arb years so maybe 2/$24 to 3/$27 aren't out of the queston.

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