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Friday, August 19, 2022

Braves get an early jump on Dansby Swanson extension talks

The Braves have opened extension talks with Dansby Swanson, and if they can lock up the Georgia product, that would leave three likely top free-agent shortstops: Trea Turner, plus Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa (who are likely to opt out). Swanson is repped by Excel/ Casey Close, who didn’t work out a deal for superstar Freddie Freeman with the Braves, much to Freeman’s dismay. To this point, there’s been less whispered negativity about these talks.

Swanson might have to take a hometown discount to stay. Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is one of the best negotiators, as he proved again this week by locking up wunderkind center fielder Michael Harris II. Unconfirmed, but a repeat of the Bogaerts deal — $120 million for six years — is an early guess.

Part of the calculus of the Harris deal was his likelihood to win Rookie of the Year, which would have moved up his free agency by a year, thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 19, 2022 at 11:48 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, dansby swanson

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 19, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6092278)
A couple of months before a player hits free agency isn’t all that early, at least in terms of getting a significant discount.
   2. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 19, 2022 at 04:11 PM (#6092280)
Braves get an early jump on Dansby Swanson

"Hey, what you guys do--OOOFF...!!"
   3. The Duke Posted: August 19, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6092285)
He should get a deal done with them. Tough market and he's been playing for a team that surrounds him with talent. Not sure what he looks like on a middling team
   4. Walt Davis Posted: August 19, 2022 at 05:27 PM (#6092290)
win Rookie of the Year, which would have moved up his free agency by a year

Whaaa? I missed that. I suppose we call this the Kris Bryant rule. Does the rule only apply if you don't have a full year's service time in your RoY year? (That is, is it only RoYs who were called up midseason that get FA moved up a year?)

Anybody know -- if the player is under contract already, are they still eligible for the "bonus pool" for pre-arb players?
   5. Walt Davis Posted: August 19, 2022 at 05:45 PM (#6092294)
As to Swanson -- a tough player to value. Some seasons he hits, some he doesn't although he's been pretty good for a SS the last 3 years. Some years he has a very good DRS, some years he has a pretty bad DRS (somebody else can check statcast and UZR). It's a bit under 3 bWAR per 650 PA which is nice but nothing special. In his pre-FA years, X was a bit under a 4-WAR player; similar for Story and Baez.

Elvis Andrus on the other hand was a 3-WAR SS in his pre-FA days (worse hitter, better runner). Even if you ignore defense, Andrelton was a 3-WAR SS. Didi Gregorius was a bit under 4. None of those guys have been worth much after age 28. Even if Swanson is a breakout similar to Brandon Crawford at the same ages, Crawford has had only one (very, very) good season after 29. Probably not a great comp but this is DeJong's age 28 season.

Giving Swanson 5-6 years would seem to be a deal without a lot of upside and some real downside. Or he took a step forward a couple of years ago and will be a defensively solid SS with a 110 OPS+ through his early-mid 30s.
   6. Buck Coats Posted: August 19, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6092295)
Whaaa? I missed that. I suppose we call this the Kris Bryant rule. Does the rule only apply if you don't have a full year's service time in your RoY year? (That is, is it only RoYs who were called up midseason that get FA moved up a year?)


As I understand it, that's it exactly - if you win RoY with less than a full season of service time, they round it up to a full year.
   7. Itchy Row Posted: August 19, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6092300)
Here's The Athletic's summary:
A player who has rookie eligibility, opens the season with 60 days or fewer in service time and who is included on two of the top prospect lists gets credited with a full year of service, even if they were promoted too late on the calendar to otherwise have received it, if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting in their league.

I didn't know about this either:
Teams who promote players in time to receive a full year of service, which is 172 days — so, Opening Day, or very shortly thereafter — have a chance at additional picks in the amateur draft. (If an international draft is agreed to, teams can potentially receive international picks, as well). Players with 60 days of service or less, who have rookie eligibility and are included in two or more of the preseason top-100 prospect lists put out by Baseball America, MLB.com or ESPN, are eligible. If, in the time before they hit salary arbitration, those players go on to win Rookie of the Year, finish top three in MVP voting or top three in Cy Young voting, their team gets an amateur draft pick following the end of the first round. A player can only create one new amateur draft pick for his team over time. But if an international draft arrives, a team can get as many as three total picks: two international and one amateur, with a max of one such pick per year).
   8. Walt Davis Posted: August 19, 2022 at 07:17 PM (#6092308)
I knew there was some stuff in there to combat Bryanting players but had no idea how it worked. The way it was phrased in the excerpt I thought that a RoY with a full service year would become FA after just 5 years which seemed huge to me (for that player at least). Then mid-post I thought "oh, maybe it only applies to Bryanted guys" which is good but is less dramatic. It would have really helped Ryan Braun back in the day but he did OK financially. :-) I'm not sure Harris would have even been super-2 eligible (should I ask what those new rules are?) down the road so this is nice for him.

As I've always said, Bryant should have been up for at least the last two months of 2014. This rule would likely have made that happen. Of course it's possible the Cubs would have chosen money over wins and held him back until mid-2015 to avoid this rule. That is, there's no perfect service time rule, it just changes the number/likelihood of players getting screwed.

Thanks for tracking down the details.
   9. John Reynard Posted: August 20, 2022 at 01:30 AM (#6092341)
I think how well Grissom does over the next few months will decide if the Braves will make a serious serious offer to Swanson or a face-saving offer hoping he signs elsewhere.

If Grissom is already 85% as good as Swanson, they'll let Swanson walk and use the money saved somewhere else on the roster. If Swanson had been better earlier, he'd have probably gotten a team-friendly long-term deal just like the rest of the keepers of course and have at least 2 team options in front of him still.
   10. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:00 PM (#6092394)
I think how well Grissom does over the next few months will decide if the Braves will make a serious serious offer to Swanson or a face-saving offer hoping he signs elsewhere.


There's already chatter down here about making Grissom a left fielder in time for next season.
   11. John Reynard Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:05 PM (#6092395)
There's already chatter down here about making Grissom a left fielder in time for next season.


I mean, sure, you can use a SS in LF if you want. But, if he can save you from spending $160M on 7 years of Swanson, you might take that and accept whoever you have in LF already (Ozuna/Rosario?)

I do see the compulsion to ditch Ozuna/Rosario too though.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: August 20, 2022 at 08:29 PM (#6092406)
I mean, sure, you can use a SS in LF if you want.

If they are seriously considering this, they obviously don't think much of his SS defense. Even if you were going to move a guy who can handle SS to the OF, LF would be a weird option. I know the Braves are in an unusual (unique?) position of already having young stars tied up at CF, RF, 1B, 2B plus 3 years of control on Riley if they can't get him to sign but moving a SS to LF wouldn't seem to be the most efficient way to solve that "problem."

Now if you think his defense at SS probably won't be particularly good then, listed at 6-3, 210, already showing solid power in the minors and so far in the majors -- that's a frame that can add some power/bulk and has the potential to be a very fine LF.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: August 20, 2022 at 08:31 PM (#6092408)
I mean, sure, you can use a SS in LF if you want.

If they are seriously considering this, they obviously don't think much of his SS defense. Even if you were going to move a guy who can handle SS to the OF, LF would be a weird option. I know the Braves are in an unusual (unique?) position of already having young stars tied up at CF, RF, 1B, 2B plus 3 years of control on Riley if they can't get him to sign but moving a SS to LF wouldn't seem to be the most efficient way to solve that "problem."

Now if you think his defense at SS probably won't be particularly good then, listed at 6-3, 210, already showing solid power in the minors and so far in the majors -- that's a frame that can add some power/bulk and has the potential to be a very fine LF.
   14. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: August 20, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6092417)
Riley is already locked up.
   15. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2022 at 10:45 PM (#6092419)
interesting that Harris II for the Braves gets the service-time bump - though now he signed a longterm deal...
   16. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 21, 2022 at 05:30 PM (#6092497)
Some years he has a very good DRS, some years he has a pretty bad DRS (somebody else can check statcast and UZR)


OK from statcast OAAs, he's +2 runs for 2021, and on pace for a total of +13.5 runs this season (still dont get why they express this as whole number of runs rather than decimal). As OAAs is a measure of range I would add to that a def. run for each baserunner kill over 13 which I think is average. So I would add +3 for 2021 and +6 for 2022 (extrapolated to full season)


So we get 2021; 2022 (extrapolated):

Fangraphs: 9.8; 19
ESPN: 3; 20
I would guess: 5; 19

We talked about DP ability a few days ago. Presumably its factored into some of these so Im not going to add more for that (Swanson seems below avg this year anyhow). In any event I think I would downgrade DP value some as presumably you'd still get one out on the play so it amounts to not having runner at 1st w/ 1 or 2 outs (sometimes the runner might be at second). So maybe .25 runs for an added DP?

At ESPN Edman is the leader at SS on pace to save 35 defensive runs this year. He's only played 52 games at SS so presumably this includes his 2b play or whatever else he plays. Swanson leads per FG at 19 runs/season if continues at this rate w/ Edman half a run behind him.
   17. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 21, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6092540)
There's already chatter down here about making Grissom a left fielder in time for next season.


Red Sox fans can assure you this is a really stupid idea.
   18. John Reynard Posted: August 22, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6092576)
If they are seriously considering this, they obviously don't think much of his SS defense.


The Braves do weird stuff with position player prospects at times. I mean, Chipper broke in at LF before settling in at 3B.

I guess I can see Grissom being kind of like Chris Taylor too if the Braves want to go that route. But, with 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF locked up, the playing time is SS and LF.

I'm no expert on his defense, but the scouting stuff seems to suggest "could play SS marginally, probably better at 2B/3B." Any chance Albies could play SS?

I just don't see the Braves backing the truck up for Swanson, who might get a fairly large offer from someone like Baltimore to be a second-tier "big signing" to show they're serious, even if they didn't sign Correa or Turner.

I don't blame them at some level. I feel like Swanson could settle in with slightly below average D and subpar hitting really easily (or he could perform at his better level for 4+ years).

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