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Tuesday, February 19, 2019

BREAKING: Free agent star Manny Machado has agreed to a deal with the San Diego Padres, league sources tell ESPN.

Edit: Reportedly 10 years for $300 million. Jim

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:27 PM | 177 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: manny machado, padres

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   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5816393)
$300MM over 10, reports say.
   2. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5816396)
Two or three winters from now he's going to be on the trading block. Very good chance.
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5816397)
Well, it's a better use of money than Hosmer, that's for sure. A good player who fills a need.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5816398)
Opt out after year 5
   5. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5816399)
Yet known if there are options or no-trade clauses?
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5816400)
Great signing for SD. Now if they only had a rotation.
   7. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5816404)
Thanks, RR.
   8. Jim Furtado Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:44 PM (#5816405)
Does this mean the Padres are trying now?
   9. The_Ex Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5816411)
Now Harper can sign for whoever offers at least $301M.
   10. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5816412)
Wow! I hope this leads to more team success than Cano with the Mariners.

They certainly have an opening, with Freddy Galvis, Christian Villanueva and Cory Spangenberg all leaving this winter. They had a gaping hole at both 3B and SS. Of course you could also say they had an opening when those guys were still around.
   11. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5816413)
This is a higher total amount payable than the crowd sourced numbers in fangraphs (although a lesser per annum number). I assume this also drives up next year's qualifying offer (as isn't that based on an average of some set of the highest salaries?). So, is the ruination of baseball and the death of player opportunity caused by team collusion and not enough teams trying now by the wayside, or should we wait for Bryce Harper's signing? I assume that now that this clog at the top is resolved, other signings will begin to fall into place (i.e. the Phillies can concentrate on Bryce or go home now; the white sox can allocate their hoped for but no longer worth anything Manny money toward someone else). Why, I bet Harper; Machado; Kuechel; and Kimbrell will start the season on a team.
   12. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:52 PM (#5816414)
Does this mean the Padres are trying now?


For now, kind of -- but wait two or three winters and he'll be on the trading block, everyone will be debating how much of his salary the Padres will have to pay, and the Padres will be "tanking" again.
   13. Howie Menckel Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5816415)

Dennis Lin
‏Verified account @dennistlin

Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler: “We do not have a deal. We are continuing discussions.”
12:48 PM - 19 Feb 2019
   14. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5816418)
If he stays healthy and productive, San Diego can't lose. Either:

1) They'll be getting one of the best players in baseball in his peak years at a price tag that will look increasingly favorable as time goes on, or
2) They'll be able to trade him for significant prospects (assuming his contract allows it).

I wonder, when the off-season started, if he thought there was any chance he'd end up in San Diego.
I also wonder what Bryce Harper is thinking as he sees this news.
   15. Davo Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5816419)
C Francisco Mejia
1B Eric Hosmer
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Manny Machado
SS Luis Urias
LF Wil Myers
CF Franchy Cordero
RF Hunter Renfroe

SP Joey Lucchesi
Sp Robbie Erlin
Sp Eric Lauer
Sp Luis Perdomo
Sp Bryan Mitchell
   16. Zonk Will Be Reinstated in August Posted: February 19, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5816421)
I also wonder what Bryce Harper is thinking as he sees this news.


What's Mike Rizzo's phone number again?
   17. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5816423)
wait two or three winters and he'll be on the trading block


If his salary is even every year (likely), or increasing every year (Pujols style), the Padres will have gotten the best 3 years out of the deal. In that case, haven't they been smart to suck the good years out and pay someone else for the bad parts of the deal, as he starts into his decline years?
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5816426)
I also wonder what Bryce Harper is thinking as he sees this news.


He's probably relieved because he can finally sign, now that they know what number his agent needs to beat to count his deal as a success.
   19. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5816427)
Huh, I guess the rumors of $300m deals on the table were true after all.
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5816429)

Bill Shaikin
‏Verified account @BillShaikin
29m29 minutes ago

The Padres have invested $528 million in Wil Myers (through 2022), Eric Hosmer (through 2025) and Manny Machado (through 2028).

Dodgers guaranteed money beyond 2022: $8 million.
32 replies 160 retweets 341 likes
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:09 PM (#5816432)

Bill Shaikin
‏Verified account @BillShaikin
29m29 minutes ago

The Padres have invested $528 million in Wil Myers (through 2022), Eric Hosmer (through 2025) and Manny Machado (through 2028).

Dodgers guaranteed money beyond 2022: $8 million.
32 replies 160 retweets 341 likes
I don't really understand the underlying point of that tweet. Or why he included 2022-and-earlier $$ for the Padres but not for the Dodgers.
   22. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5816436)
So, which outfielders do they trade? They have way more bodies than spots + need big league pitching.
   23. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5816437)
Suppose some of this money is from the MLB emergency central fund?
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5816440)
If his salary is even every year (likely), or increasing every year (Pujols style), the Padres will have gotten the best 3 years out of the deal. In that case, haven't they been smart to suck the good years out and pay someone else for the bad parts of the deal, as he starts into his decline years?

He's 26. He should be good for 6 or 7 years at least.
   25. DFA Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5816443)
Manny is a great player, and I wish him well. Considering their farm system, this is exactly the kind of move a team like the Padres should be making. Enjoy Padres fans!
   26. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5816444)
He's 26. He should be good for 6 or 7 years at least.


That may be true, but the odds are he will be worse at age 30 than age 29, and so on. I think people normally assume a one-half WAR a year diminishment? I understand that is a WAG number, but it is a recognition of reality, and I would feel comfortable betting that his total WAR in year 1-3 is greater than his total WAR in years 4-6, which in turn will be greater than his total WAR in year 6-9.
   27. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5816446)
The Padres have invested $528 million in Wil Myers (through 2022), Eric Hosmer (through 2025) and Manny Machado (through 2028).


Whether it qualifies as "trying" or not, that's shitty management.
   28. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5816447)
Seems like they are a good fit to move an OF to Cleveland for a SP?
   29. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5816454)
The headline cuts off on the main page, so I had to click through to see the team. The Padres are pretty much near the bottom of the list of teams I would've expected to see, but I like it. It's refreshing.
   30. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5816455)
The Padres have invested $528 million in Wil Myers (through 2022), Eric Hosmer (through 2025) and Manny Machado (through 2028).

Dodgers guaranteed money beyond 2022: $8 million.
32 replies 160 retweets 341 likes


I will bet you one American dollar that, come 2023, the Dodgers are still out-spending the Padres. The only reason they didn't re-sign Machado themselves is that they have nowhere for him to play when Seager is healthy.
   31. KB JBAR (trhn) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5816456)
I don't really understand the underlying point of that tweet.


I think the point is pretty clear: The Dodgers are keeping their early-2020s payroll obligations to a minimum so they can sign multiple max contract guys--including Wil Myers & probably Hosmer--and still stay below the salary cap.
   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:33 PM (#5816458)
So I guess Tatis will spend the next ten years in AAA so they can game his service time
   33. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5816460)
I wonder how far away the abundant SD farm system is, to producing high-end MLB players. It sounds as if Tatis could show up this year (although I understand that the Padres may have just signed a high-end shortstop). With Hosmer being 29 and Machado turning 27, is their optimum window the next 2 to 3 years? Should they be flipping A and AA lottery tickets for more sure-fire MLB ready players?
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5816463)
That may be true, but the odds are he will be worse at age 30 than age 29, and so on. I think people normally assume a one-half WAR a year diminishment? I understand that is a WAG number, but it is a recognition of reality, and I would feel comfortable betting that his total WAR in year 1-3 is greater than his total WAR in years 4-6, which in turn will be greater than his total WAR in year 6-9.

Right, but the goal of MLB teams should be to win games, not arbitrage contracts. Machado is a 5-6 win player, and shouldn't start declining for at least 3 years. Even if he's "only" a 4 win player at age 30, it's still a pretty good contract.
   35. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5816467)
Even if he's "only" a 4 win player at age 30, it's still a pretty good contract.


Except they're contractually obligated to pay him a ton of money for many years after he turns 30. There's really no sense in which this wasn't a massive overpay. And then they gave him the opt-out which is also silly. It essentially gives Machado a one-way option to keep getting paid a ton even if he isn't worth it.

Machado's going to wake up unhappy too, sometime around July 1, with his team 10+ games under .500 and then he's going to whine and his performance will suffer.
   36. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5816468)
Hosmer is irrelevant to the Padres' window. They do have a lot of young outfield talent - Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero - in addition to Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe, who are in their primes right now. They really do need to trade some of those outfielders for pitching, because they got exactly five starts last year from a pitcher with an ERA+ above 100, and those were from using Matt Strahm as an opener.
   37. Padraic Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5816469)
The Padres have invested $528 million in Wil Myers (through 2022), Eric Hosmer (through 2025) and Manny Machado (through 2028).

Dodgers guaranteed money beyond 2022: $8 million.


This is a weird way to put it, and I think wildly misleading. Using the "guaranteed money beyond 2022" cutoff, the Padres have $1M committed to Myers, 3/39 to Hosmer, and whatever to Machado. Myers I'm assuming can be bought out for $1M and Hosmer's contract drops dramatically in 2023. And Machado will be 29 or so. Not exactly a disaster looming.
   38. DCA Posted: February 19, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5816470)
Padres top 10 prospects per BA

SS Tatis (reached AA, could see him this year)
SP Gore (A ball, long way off)
2B Urias (reached MLB, probably up for good)
CA Mejia (reached MLB, probably up for good)
SP Morejon (high-A, will be a while)
SP Paddack (reached AA, ready this year or next)
SP Patino (low-A, long way off)
SP Allen (reached AAA, should be up this year)
1B/OF Naylor (reached AA, ready this year or next)
SP Quantrill (reached AAA, should be up this year)

So - four position players that could be in the lineup in September 2019, and pitching for now, later, and in-between. There aren't any particular promising bats on the horizon after the big four (and of those, it's hard to see what Naylor adds to the crowded 1B/OF mix; he can't play center).
   39. Nasty Nate Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5816486)
Not exactly a disaster looming.
I thought maybe he was trying to call the Dodgers cheap.
   40. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5816488)
Sixty-five pythag wins last year, maybe 75 this year, even with some play in the pythag, it's hard to see a path to .500. Beyond what Bill James might call the Chuck Tanner path of kind of Pollyanna just assuming everyone will have a fantastic year, of course.

These guys don't become different players just because they make a ton more money. The Padres could easily go something like 70-92 this year, or even worse.
   41. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5816490)
If the Dodgers dumped salary for 2019 to gear up for big spending in future years; the Giants (even if they get Harper, I think, as their one-last hurrah team from last year is one year older and one year further removed from excellence) are nowhere; and Arizona is dumping assets in the short-term (good-bye greatest hitter in franchise history, Paul G.), isn't the Padres best chance right now, as in 2019? Bundle Gore (beloved by scouts) and a young OF to Cleveland for high-end, MLB ready pitching is what I would be doing.
   42. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5816491)
Padres top 10 prospects per BA


Espinoza isn't in the top 10? Because of the arm thing I assume?
   43. DCA Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5816492)
He hasn't pitched in two years, so yeah.
   44. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5816497)
Hosmer is irrelevant to the Padres' window.
This is not true. They might, for instance, wish to throw him out of their window, or any other available window.
   45. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5816498)
The Padres don't have a "window" just because they're blowing a bunch of money on free agents. They had 65 pythag wins last year, every one of them earned. Between Galvis, Spangenberg, and Villanueva, they got 4.8 WAR from the left side of their infield last year. If Machado and whomever gives them 8 this year (*), that's a whopping 3 extra wins.

(*) Machado 2018 and Galvis 2018 is exactly 8. I'd take the under this year on both, without question. Machado's performance fell off a cliff last year when he moved to the NL West.
   46. villageidiom Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5816500)
For what it's worth, and in a demonstration that 2019 isn't really all that different, they signed Hosmer one year ago today.
   47. Padraic Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5816502)
They might, for instance, wish to throw him out of their window, or any other available window.


It wouldn't be the first defenestration involving a padre.
   48. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5816503)
The Padres don't have a "window" just because they're blowing a bunch of money on free agents


They have 2 high-priced free agents that represent $50,000,000.00 in salary alone in 2019, who will by normal aging curves diminish in skills every year from here on out, so that seems like a window that will close ever so slightly every year. Those 2 players peak value is in 2019; the Padres need to go all in for this year.
   49. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:17 PM (#5816505)
Oh, no question 2019 is the year to "go for it" -- it's just that they have no chance even if they do.
   50. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5816508)
The Padres don't have a "window" just because they're blowing a bunch of money on free agents. They had 65 pythag wins last year, every one of them earned. Between Galvis, Spangenberg, and Villanueva, they got 4.8 WAR from the left side of their infield last year. If Machado and whomever gives them 8 this year (*), that's a whopping 3 extra wins.


Put another way "you can't win so don't try."

The Padres got a lot better today. If you are a Padre fan this is a very good day. It doesn't mean they are perfect and they need other pieces of course but you get better by adding better players. The attitude that Machado doesn't make the Padres instant winners is why teams tank. It's the fantasy sports approach to real sports. Padre fans who watch games and go to games and buy merchandise are going to be happier and spend more money on an 82 win team than a 74 win team.
   51. finner Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5816511)
He's 26. He should be good for 6 or 7 years at least.

Even if he's "only" a 4 win player at age 30, it's still a pretty good contract.



That's what Mets fans thought about David Wright too. You can't assume.
   52. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5816512)
Put another way "you can't win so don't try."


That really isn't another way to put the idea that the Padres don't really have a "window" of contention. They aren't contenders in 2019 and any guess is to when they will be again is no more than a guess.

Thus, no "window."

As to "trying," I'm not sure exactly what that means. Sure, they're trying to win more games which is fine. If I was a Padres fan, I would be fine with it, but wary about its impact over the next few years. Strikes me as a band-aid, haphazard way to go about putting a team on the field -- particularly after I checked bb-ref and saw what Machado did last year in the NL West.

Any intelligent Padres fan would have to think the approach isn't really self-sustaining, and that Machado won't really be that happy, and the team will be right back in the same place in spring training 2021 or 2022. It's most definitely not a "good day" for Padres fans if Machado comes in and whines, or performs like he did after the trade to the NL West last year.
   53. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5816513)
The Padres don't have a "window" just because they're blowing a bunch of money on free agents. They had 65 pythag wins last year, every one of them earned. Between Galvis, Spangenberg, and Villanueva, they got 4.8 WAR from the left side of their infield last year. If Machado and whomever gives them 8 this year (*), that's a whopping 3 extra wins.

(*) Machado 2018 and Galvis 2018 is exactly 8. I'd take the under this year on both, without question. Machado's performance fell off a cliff last year when he moved to the NL West.


This is a great example why no one should ever pollute a decent conversation by replying to "." There is so much nonsense in the quoted statement, it's tough to know where to begin to refute it. Best practice is to not bother.
   54. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5816517)
Padre fans who watch games and go to games and buy merchandise are going to be happier and spend more money on an 82 win team than a 74 win team.
Not to ignore the merits of the rest of your post, but I highly doubt this is true to the tune of anywhere even approaching $30 million.
   55. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5816520)
Not to ignore the merits of the rest of your post, but I highly doubt this is true to the tune of anywhere even approaching $30 million.

Of course it won't in one year but inspiring fan engagement can have a very long tail.
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5816521)
Heyman reporting that No-Trade Clause remains to be worked out.
   57. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5816523)
Heyman reporting that No-Trade Clause remains to be worked out.


Under no circumstances should the Padres agree to this. There's simply no need for this kind of desperation. They shouldn't have even given him the opt-out. It's shitty management.

If Boras leaked the deal, and then leaked the "we have to work out the no-trade still" they should tell him no no-trade and if you don't want the deal, don't take it.
   58. JL72 Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5816524)
Of course it won't in one year but inspiring fan engagement can have a very long tail.


Agreed. Too often, people point to one contract, so it won't have an effect, then apply to each successive contract. But that ignores the cumulative effect.

If the Padres stop here, I agree that the Machado signing won't be enough. But if it is part of more moves to build a winner, it could very valuable in encouraging fan engagement.
   59. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5816525)
Heyman reporting that No-Trade Clause remains to be worked out.


I would assume the orioles will make that list of his.
   60. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5816526)
Not to ignore the merits of the rest of your post, but I highly doubt this is true to the tune of anywhere even approaching $30 million.


I haven't done a formal study of the San Diego baseball market or exactly how many wins Machado projects to give them, but this isn't entirely implausible. Say an extra $100 per fan per game between tickets, concessions, jersey sales, etc. It would take 300,000 fans to get you $30 million. Divided by 81 home games, that's only 3,700 extra fans per game. Even last year, when attendance was down 1,200 per game MLB-wide, three teams beat that - Astros (World Series bump), Brewers (good team got better), and Yankees (same story as Brewers). The Phillies increased their attendance by 3,121 on the strength of improving from 66 wins to 80.

I think Pops is right in #55 that this is a multi-year play but even in the first year, the contract could pay for itself or come pretty close.
   61. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:43 PM (#5816527)

Assuming there's actually a deal in place, that Machado is worth 6 WAR in 2019* and declines 0.5 WAR per year for the following 10 years**, the Padres will get 37.5 WAR for $300M, or exactly $8M/WAR. That's in line with recent free agent contracts. They would get 25 WAR for $6M per WAR for the first 5 years, and then at that point he's a 30-year-old 4 WAR player owed $150m over the next five years. If he doesn't opt out at that point, you can afford to pay $50M to move him and you've still paid $8M per WAR for five years (and whoever gets him will be paying $100M for 12.5 WAR, also $8M per WAR).

None of that looks bad so I don't think I'd call this an overpay. The problem is the asymmetric risk that he'll blow out his knee or massively underperform, which even if unlikely is more likely than him massively outperforming (and if he does outperform, he will probably opt out so you've lost out on some of that surplus value). That risk is priced into the other comparable contracts, and this is better than some of those given Machado's young age. But it's still risky. I'd rather have paid him a bit more per year for 7-8 years, but that's me.

* Steamer projects him for 5.2 WAR
** he's only 26, so he is probably not projected to begin declining for a couple of years. Combined with the above note, the overall projection above is probably a bit conservative.
   62. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5816528)
The Padres average ticket price is $22. I highly doubt the average fan is spending an extra $78 per game on top of that. Sure, maybe at one game you splurge on a jersey the next game a hat maybe, but by game three or four, you're probably at something like $25 for the ticket and another $25 tops on food and beer. Even the $25 tops on food and beer is probably high.

Some of these markets are just nothing like Wrigley or NYC. San Diego is one of those markets.

This might be a bet by the Padres owners on being now the only pro sports team in town, which might make some sense.
   63. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5816529)
If Boras leaked the deal, and then leaked the "we have to work out the no-trade still" they should tell him no no-trade and if you don't want the deal, don't take it.

Seems fairly likely that the parties previous discussions included possible parameters of a No-Trade Clause, and the remaining negotiations are within those parameters.
   64. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5816531)
None of that looks bad so I don't think I'd call this an overpay.


WAR isn't properly valued by a look-back at previous free agent contracts. It's like pricing food based on what it costs at Nobu.

I'd grant that WAR isn't always available at its actual cost, though.(*) Having to pay free agent price for it though is something you have to do if you've otherwise failed. Typically anyway, and totally in this instance.

Nor is WAR worth to the Padres what it would be worth to several other teams, since its marginal utility is far lower. The marginal WAR isn't worth to a 65 pythag team what it is to, say, an 85 pythag team.

(*) Really, this is a highly imperfect market which makes the entire idea of "valuing" WAR more than a little suspect.
   65. akrasian Posted: February 19, 2019 at 02:58 PM (#5816535)
They likely won't compete for the division in 2019. They do have top prospects arriving this season, so improvement is likely. And Machado is available this season, not next. It will take some good moves and some luck, but I could see them competing in 2020-2021. Should they just punt ever trying to compete? Besides, with labor strife coming, this shows their fans and large market teams that they are trying to compete.

Machado likely won't help them to a championship, but it's a reasonable move anyway. And weirder things have happened.
   66. The Duke Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5816536)
I hope they sign Harper now. It would be a great move for their window.
   67. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5816548)
BBTF Tired: It's terrible the way small-market owners are allowed to pocket revenue-sharing money. They should be forced to spend it on players!

BBTF Wired: What are the Padres thinking signing a player like Machado to a big contract? They'll never make back the money they're spending!
   68. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:23 PM (#5816549)
I hope they sign Harper now. It would be a great move for their window.


It is hard now to see who is being facetious and who is being serious, but if the sleeping giant of LA is chilling for a year and the Giants are building back up, and the Diamondbacks are... (whatever the Diamondbacks are doing), now is the Padres time. The Dodgers could end up with DeGrom and every other Met worth having, for starters, beginning in 2020, and in terms of super teams, I am not sure there is one in the NL this year, if the Nationals do not re-sign Harper (which by definition they did not, if the Padres sign him). If this sprint to the top doesn't work for the Padres, they can always flip one or both in the off-season (no trade clause notwithstanding).
   69. BillWallace Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5816550)
The one year window stuff, exact calculations of wins and estimations of win curves are always always always overblown. It's all false precision, the enemy of good analytics. Are they favorites to make the playoffs this next season? Probably not, but so what?

The Padres have a currently not terrible young team with a lot of good prospects. They figure to be competitive at some point over the next 6 years. They signed a great player who figures to be very good over the next 6 years. Maybe they do get lucky this season... Tatis and Mejia turn into Soto and Acuna, Myers has a strong season, a couple of their starters break right. Lots of young teams are 65-75 win teams until they aren't. Should they wait until they have a breakout season until they sign a big FA? Maybe then there's not a good fit. Why always commit to striking too late?

I think it's a wonderful deal for the Padres, and I'm also happy for what it means for baseball in general.

   70. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5816551)
They have 2 high-priced free agents that represent $50,000,000.00 in salary alone in 2019, who will by normal aging curves diminish in skills every year from here on out, so that seems like a window that will close ever so slightly every year. Those 2 players peak value is in 2019; the Padres need to go all in for this year.

Machado is 26. He's more likely to be improving than declining.
   71. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5816552)
The one year window stuff, exact calculations of wins and estimations of win curves are always always always overblown. It's all false precision, the enemy of good analytics.


Couldn't agree more.

My point is more the Padres' history. Typically, they don't sustain this kind of spending and wind up with buyer's remorse very quickly. They went through a "let's get a bunch of veterans and try to win" phase like four years ago or whatever and it lasted a year.
   72. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5816553)
It is hard now to see who is being facetious and who is being serious, but if the sleeping giant of LA is chilling for a year and the Giants are building back up, and the Diamondbacks are... (whatever the Diamondbacks are doing), now is the Padres time.


Did you know there is another team in the NL West that has been in the playoffs the past two years?
   73. JJ1986 Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5816555)
Machado's performance fell off a cliff last year when he moved to the NL West.
Come on.
   74. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5816559)
Oh yeah, the perennially mysterious Rockies. The Padres will have to pass them too. Maybe that is easier said than done, but if I were the Padres looking at a 5 year horizon, I would worry about the Dodgers and Giants more, but that is just me.
   75. bfan Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5816568)

Did you know there is another team in the NL West that has been in the playoffs the past two years?


My apologies to all Rockies fans. Your achievement of driving a stake through the hearts of the Cubs last season was a highlight for me, for 2018.

I am actually pleased that this thread has not turned into how Manny Machado's signing by the Padres will impact the Cubs or the Red Sox this year.
   76. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 03:54 PM (#5816572)
BBTF Tired: It's terrible the way small-market owners are allowed to pocket revenue-sharing money. They should be forced to spend it on players!

BBTF Wired: What are the Padres thinking signing a player like Machado to a big contract? They'll never make back the money they're spending!


SBB spends his entire life in galaxy brain mode, so we shouldn't be surprised.
   77. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5816587)
The one year window stuff, exact calculations of wins and estimations of win curves are always always always overblown. It's all false precision, the enemy of good analytics.


Couldn't agree more.
And yet you're the one constantly engaging in it.
   78. What if I planted tomatoes Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5816597)
Won't the Padres be a pretty young team? Is having a player like Manny as your best player the right fit? Young players copy what they see from the best player, right? Won't that mean in a year or so most of the Padres are stepping on the backs of ankles and hitting catchers in the head with their follow throughs?
   79. BillWallace Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5816600)
I believe that the expected marginal return on investment for this signing is likely to be negative, but that if baseball paid all free agents at the same $/projected WAR as Machado that the owners would still be in fantastic shape.
   80. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5816603)
Won't the Padres be a pretty young team? Is having a player like Manny as your best player the right fit? Young players copy what they see from the best player, right? Won't that mean in a year or so most of the Padres are stepping on the backs of ankles and hitting catchers in the head with their follow throughs?

Worked for John McGraw's teams.
   81. What if I planted tomatoes Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5816609)
80--Sure, work practices from the early 20th century are totally transferable to modern day.
   82. TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5816617)
If Boras leaked the deal, and then leaked the "we have to work out the no-trade still" they should tell him no no-trade and if you don't want the deal, don't take it.
Why would Boras, who isn't Machado's agent, care if Machado gets a NTC or not?
   83. RoyalFlush Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:31 PM (#5816619)
Won't the Padres be a pretty young team? Is having a player like Manny as your best player the right fit? Young players copy what they see from the best player, right? Won't that mean in a year or so most of the Padres are stepping on the backs of ankles and hitting catchers in the head with their follow throughs?


Tell the kids to play like Machado and behave like Hosmer. But definitely not the reverse.
   84. TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5816620)
Machado's performance fell off a cliff last year when he moved to the NL West.
In 66 games in LA, Machado produced 2.8 bWAR, meaning he was as valuable as in the first 96 games of the year. So what I think you meant to say was "Machado's performance took a big step forward last year when he moved to the NL West".
   85. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5816624)
So what I think you meant to say was "Machado's performance took a big step forward last year when he moved to the NL West".


No, I meant to say that his OPS+ dropped from 164 to 122 when he moved to the NL West. In terms of WAR, his oWAR dropped from 4.6 to 2.0. His dWAR "improved" from -1.2 to 1.2 but that's little more than statistical noise. (*) If you want to pay for that noise, be my guest -- but I'm not going to. Nor am I paying $300 million over 10 years to a 3B with a 122 OPS+. It's not a red flag but it's very much a pink one.

(*) I agree that he's an excellent defender at 3B, but that level of granularity is not persuasive.
   86. TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5816625)
Dayn Perry should know better.
(Harper's) seen wide performance swings in his big-league career, ranging from "otherworldly" (his MVP season of 2015) to "merely good" (2014 and 2016).
Harper wasn't good in either '14 or '16 (or '18, but Perry only describes his work as a hitter). In none of those 3 seasons was Harper above average by WAA because defense is an actual skill that MLB players need to possess.
   87. TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:47 PM (#5816627)
So what I think you meant to say was "Machado's performance took a big step forward last year when he moved to the NL West".

No, I meant to say that his OPS+ dropped from 164 to 122 when he moved to the NL West. In terms of WAR, his oWAR dropped from 4.6 to 2.0. His dWAR "improved" from -1.2 to 1.2 but that's little more than statistical noise. If you want to pay for that noise, be my guest -- but I'm not going to.
So...<300 PA in LA (or 400 PA in BAL) isn't statistical noise? His OPS+ in LA was actually slightly higher than his career mark (122 vs. 121).
   88. baudib Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5816628)
Harper's had such a weird career it's hard to even know what to expect, or describe what a normal Bryce Harper year even looks like.

If I had to guess I'd say his value pattern over the next 10 years will look sorta like Reggie Jackson.
   89. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 19, 2019 at 06:10 PM (#5816633)
Machado is 26. He's more likely to be improving than declining.

Not exactly. This would be true for an average player certainly. But the more of an outlier you are, the less you are likely to fit a standard ageing curve. Basically, the better you are, the more likely you are to already have peaked.
   90. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5816634)
So...<300 PA in LA (or 400 PA in BAL) isn't statistical noise?


Might be, might not be. Not worth a $300 million risk. Frankly, neither is a 121 career OPS+. That would have to improve by a lot to justify the contract. It might, given the ages at which it was accumulated.

A-Rod went to free agency at 24 with a career OPS+ of 139 and as a gold glove caliber SS, coming off a 163 year. There's really no comparison there in terms of risk.
   91. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 19, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5816635)
Assuming there's actually a deal in place, that Machado is worth 6 WAR in 2019* and declines 0.5 WAR per year for the following 10 years**, the Padres will get 37.5 WAR for $300M, or exactly $8M/WAR. That's in line with recent free agent contracts. They would get 25 WAR for $6M per WAR for the first 5 years, and then at that point he's a 30-year-old 4 WAR player owed $150m over the next five years. If he doesn't opt out at that point, you can afford to pay $50M to move him and you've still paid $8M per WAR for five years (and whoever gets him will be paying $100M for 12.5 WAR, also $8M per WAR).

None of that looks bad so I don't think I'd call this an overpay. The problem is the asymmetric risk that he'll blow out his knee or massively underperform

No, the problem is the opt out. You have to factor that into the valuation of the contract. The chance to become a free agent again for his age 31 one season, and get another huge payday is incredibly valuable. Probably worth around $50m (depending on whether the contract is back-loaded or frontloaded or evenly distributed).
   92. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:12 PM (#5816648)
Might be, might not be. Not worth a $300 million risk. Frankly, neither is a 121 career OPS+. That would have to improve by a lot to justify the contract. It might, given the ages at which it was accumulated.

A-Rod went to free agency at 24 with a career OPS+ of 139 and as a gold glove caliber SS, coming off a 163 year. There's really no comparison there in terms of risk.


Talk about arguing in bad faith. The OPS+ decline is real, but the improvement at SS (which he playing full time for the first time since 2012) is noise.

Then you compare his deal to ARod's without any adjustment for the increase in payrolls, revenue, or even inflation.

If you index ARod's deal for the increase in MLB payrolls, it would be 10/$540M. Indexed to league revenue, it would be 10/$700M.

Machado could be literally half as productive as ARod and still justify his contract.
   93. BillWallace Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:16 PM (#5816650)
The thing about Harper's defense is this.
In almost all cases, it would be correct to assume that the defender is being used reasonably correctly and is trying their best. And so most of the time past defensive valuations, as good or not good as you think they may be, are useful to predict future results.

But there are some specific cases where that assumption isn't true, and I'd argue that Harper last season was one of them. For whatever reason he was just clearly not going all out at all on D. If I were looking at signing Harper I would significantly discount/regress his negative defensive results last season and consider him to be at least an average corner outfielder. Assuming you had belief that he could be coached to go back to trying to catch things now that he had $300m in his bank account.

re: Machado, the quibbling about small sample size defense etc is silly. The projection models handle that. Looks like they all have him between 5-5.5 wins, which seems right to me.
   94. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:34 PM (#5816655)
If you index ARod's deal for the increase in MLB payrolls, it would be 10/$540M. Indexed to league revenue, it would be 10/$700M.


Why would we do either of those things? We'd index it to inflation. Or even wage inflation generally.

It's still elite star money, in any event, and Machado isn't an elite star. It's the biggest contract in US sports history. He's not even close to worth that.

Machado could be literally half as productive as ARod and still justify his contract.


His contract is really only "justified" if he adds more than $30M/year to Padre revenues. I highly doubt he will.
   95. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:38 PM (#5816656)
According to one of the MLB Network talking heads (wasn't paying close attention) 13 of 14 teams with farm systems rated as high as the Padres made the playoffs within 2 years. Adding Machado to a playoff team seems like a good move, although there are no guarantees in MLB.
   96. . Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:47 PM (#5816660)
A-Rod's contract was for $355M in 2019 dollars. Far better deal than this one, not close really.
   97. Lars6788 Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:54 PM (#5816662)
Mr.Dot, why are being such a hater? Manny run over your dog or something?
   98. Bhaakon Posted: February 19, 2019 at 08:07 PM (#5816666)
But there are some specific cases where that assumption isn't true, and I'd argue that Harper last season was one of them. For whatever reason he was just clearly not going all out at all on D. If I were looking at signing Harper I would significantly discount/regress his negative defensive results last season and consider him to be at least an average corner outfielder. Assuming you had belief that he could be coached to go back to trying to catch things now that he had $300m in his bank account.


Are you arguing that he was hiding some sort of injury, or just, for lack of a better word, lazy?

Because if it's the later, I'd certainly not give him extra credit in the expectation of good things going forward.
   99. akrasian Posted: February 19, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5816669)
The thing about Harper's defense is this.
In almost all cases, it would be correct to assume that the defender is being used reasonably correctly and is trying their best. And so most of the time past defensive valuations, as good or not good as you think they may be, are useful to predict future results.

But there are some specific cases where that assumption isn't true, and I'd argue that Harper last season was one of them. For whatever reason he was just clearly not going all out at all on D. If I were looking at signing Harper I would significantly discount/regress his negative defensive results last season and consider him to be at least an average corner outfielder. Assuming you had belief that he could be coached to go back to trying to catch things now that he had $300m in his bank account.


I've heard it argued that he was taking it easier than normal on defense trying to avoid an injury in his walk year.

If so, then yes, his defense should improve. OTOH, he had one of his healthiest seasons. Maybe you should expect 126 games per season - which is what he averaged the 5 previous seasons.

Can't have it both ways.
   100. Lassus Posted: February 19, 2019 at 09:01 PM (#5816672)
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