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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Mark Buehrle and Ozzie Guillen reunited: The free-agent pitcher reportedly will sign a four-year, $58 million deal with the Miami Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
Repoz
Posted: December 07, 2011 at 09:58 PM | 69 comment(s)
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1. Bourbon Samurai stays in the fight Posted: December 07, 2011 at 10:17 PM (#4009657)Glavine, -32: 2425.2 IP, 41.6 WAR
Was hoping that Buehrle would go to the Cardinals after a decade of hinting and speculation, but I guess he's got to have gas money for that truck of his.
Now, is this STILL with a possible Pujols signing? Is there that much money on the books? Damn.
If Buehrle declines at a rate of 0.5 WAR per season, and salary inflation continues at a rate of 5%, then Buehrle would project to be worth a contract of 4 years, $52M. So I have this as a basically fair contract.
Obviously any number of different assumptions could produce any number of different evaluations, but I think these are pretty reasonable.
I wouldn't think so, and there's this on MLBTradeRumors--
The Marlins are well down the road with negotiations for Wilson and Mark Buehrle, reports ESPN's Jayson Stark. They're saying that if they sign one of the starters, that will end their Albert Pujols pursuit.
--but the way the Marlins have done things this off-season I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow morning and see that they also signed Pujols and CJ Wilson and traded Hanley for, like, Cliff Lee or something.
I'm bummed that he's left the Sox, I honestly thought he was a Sox lifer. Probably my favorite player to watch over the last decade. A perfect game, a no-hitter, the ace of the 2005 World Champions.
This was my favorite Buehrle start to see in-person. Opening Day, beautiful weather, classic Buehrle start (game time: 1 hour, 51 minutes).
Now 2 players remain from the 2005 team: Konerko & AJ.
A lot has been made of the insular clubhouse atmosphere on the White Sox. The sooner AJ and Kong go (and I thank them, especially Kong, for their contributions) the better IMO.
I too thought Mark was a White Sox lifer. Saddens me that instead we have Alex Rios and Jake "I don't understand my body" Peavy.
I mean - I'm a Cubs fan so south side pain should make me schadenfreuderifically happy, as should the thought of Albert leaving the Cardinals - but really, when you get down to it, I think I'd prefer them both having gone home than see them go to the Miami swindler jackasses...
If nothing else, after the fishies buy their 2012 title - the offseason 2012 firesale will be fun.
It's an interesting comparison, but if you look at ages 25-32 (Glavine became GLAVINE at 25), Glavine comes out well ahead.
Eh, I don't think they're too much of a problem. If Konerko left the team tomorrow there'd be a gaping hole at 1B. If AJ can be moved this off-season I wouldn't shed tears- I want to see if Flowers can be a worthwhile starting catcher in the majors.
In short, this team isn't mediocre because of the chemistry in the clubhouse; there's just a bunch of mediocre players on this team.
I haven't become as attached as most Sox fans to AJ & Konerko, but if they both left this off-season I could see attendance significantly dropping.
I've done this in OOTP: trade everyone making more than a couple million PA, get payroll way down, save up money for several seasons (while losing 90-100 games/year) and drafting early and often. As my stud prospects start hitting the majors, I spend boatloads of saved-up cash to fill in the pieces, and build a juggernaut that dominates the league for 5 years or so before my prospects hit FA and eat me alive with salary demands.
That's when it all falls apart, but I just repeat the cycle and tell everyone "Count da ringzzz!" in the meantime.
Well, as long as we are making assumptions, let's make one for Hanley, that he returns to his old self.
Reyes and Hanley 10 WAR vs 0.5 for Ramirez and Dobbs last year.
Johnson 5 WAR vs 2.5 last year
Buehrle 3.5 WAR vs 0 for Vasquez
That's 15-16 wins. 90+ wins probably gets them a WC spot.
Of course, the problem is the ostracizing of guys like Swisher and the elevation of guys like Pierre and Vizquel. A big part of the problem was Guillen, and he's gone.
You're assuming that they keep Ramirez. (I think that's a fair assumption to make.) That 15 games back would put them 2 games back of a Wild Card spot.
Jesus Christ, for anyone who's ever spent any time in the parts of Dade County that aren't South Beach, this is continually awful to hear.
Is Vizquel playing this year, btw?
If you get 4 free agents in one year, you only have to give up a pick in each of the first four rounds. Sign 4 in 4 separate years and you're giving up 4 first round picks.
The Marlins just signed him to play short and have asked Reyes to move to third and Hanley to move to deep left field.
Heh - ditto... though -- I don't mess with the down cycle.
Inevitably, by year 3 or 4 -- I've basically got a farm system stocked with ~25% of the top 100 prospects, so I can continuously trade from strength to fill needs. My last OOTP dynasty - I had a nifty 5 year run of 120 win seasons and 11 straight 110+ win seasons. By the time I finally got bored with it (and by that point, it was all about seeing what sorts of numbers and how many HoFers I could squeeze out of my dynasty), I had three 300 game winners in my rotation, two 500 HR and two (different) 3000 hits hitters in my lineup... and rosters at AAA and AA that probably would been able to compete for division titles in the major leagues. I love OOTP - but man, the game sorely needs an upgrade to trading and roster management AI. I've put all sorts of house rules in place, but it's just impossible to NOT fleece it.
I don't grant the assumption on Hanley. He was a 3.7 WAR in 2010, so it's not like his 2011 was the beginning of his decline. I'll grant a rebound to 2010 for the sake of argument, but I think assuming he bounces back to 5 is a stretch.
Reyes over Dobbs = 5 WAR
Hanley rebounds = 4 WAR
Johnson rebounds = 3 WAR
Buehrle over Vazquez = 1 WAR (Vazquez was a 2.5 WAR pitcher last year.)
13 WAR, give or take, for a team that finished 30 games out last year.
So you're the Cubs?
Do you have both 'potential' and 'actual' ratings -- or keep ratings hidden? I think most people say it's a crutch, but I use ratings visible (20 to 80 scale) and I think the key is to pay attention to both, even when drafting -- good prospects with moderately decent actual ratings are better than legendary potential with bottom actuals. I find it's also best to use a scouting director more on the 'neutral' side of preferences -- the extremes on 'value potential' vs. 'value talent' (or whatever it is) tend to skew things too much. Finally, if you use the player attributes/personality traits -- I also tend towards the durable and hard-worker players quite heavily... to the point that I won't draft fragile and/or lazy players, regardless of skill level.
The other thing I do is vastly overspend on player development -- I have extremely expensive minor league coaching staffs (and I'm constantly firing coaches whenever a top flight instructor is available) and I also tend to either double up or even triple the league average on player development. I also micromanage the hell out of promotions/demotions and minor league lineups to ensure my prospects are 'protected' from the AI who sometimes seems to think using a 29 yo organizational soldier ought to be starting ahead of my top hitting prospect. The latest patch has improved this a bit -- I find that the minor league reports about who's ready to be promoted and who should be demoted are almost pointless... I suppose it's actually a GOOD thing from a gameplay perspective, but it really pays to pay attention to the numbers and manually promote/demote players between levels.
Anyone still play BB Mogul anymore? Did they ever fix that silly "contact" rating for pitchers (the game basically existed in an anti-DIPS universe for several iterations)?
Maybe the Cubs can pawn off Soriano to them since the wallet seems to be wide open.
Yeah, my bad on Vasquez. I must have looked at batting WAR.
Plus 1.5-2 upgrading the closer to heath Bell.
And I know YOU don't care about the Wild card, but the fact is it does exist. A 15 win improvement puts the Marlins at 87 wins, and in the thick of it, whether you acknowledge it or not.
and
Right. Two can play this game, see.
Jason Heyward will obviously rebound to his 2010 form. Plus 3 WAR for Atlanta. Dan Uggla's clearly due another 4.something year. Plus 3 WAR for Atlanta. Martin Prado, +2. Freddie Freeman's only 22, so he's obviously going to improve some too. Plus replacing Derek Lowe with Julio Teheran or someone who will be better than Derek Lowe.
Now the Braves have improved by 10-12 WAR, so there!
It's nifty what you can do if you assume best case scenarios for everyone involved.
You misspelled "probably".
Oh, wait...
You misspelled the point.
Ah, so I did. Dumb.
Or he has gotten worse and worse every year he has been in the bigs. Coghlan might improve a little, but he is still a weak spot as a starting CF.
I like him though. If I'm the Marlins I go find a speedy flycatcher type to play CF, to make up for Logan Morrison's D in LF, and use Coghlan in a LF/CF/2b/3b utility role.
That all may well happen. But the Brave's problem is they are unlikely to get 10 WAR from 3 relievers. They also got a lot of value from a 35 year old starter and a 39 year old 3rd baseman. I'll take the under on 17 WAR from Jones, Hudson, Venters, Kimbrel, and O'Flaherty next year.
Interesting premise actually. If you run this for every team....who wins?
The Cubs do. Their best case scenario is that other teams are moved to pity and donate their best players.
I give KW two years, then I start pronouncing his name "Jerry Krause".
Yeah, now I'm wondering how far ahead did they plan this? Seems like the Marlins might have noticed quite a while ago that Pujols and Reyes would just happen to be free agents the same year their new stadium comes online, and started stuffing the piggy bank very early.
It's entirely possible that he believed he was that good-old mid-western boy until someone offered his agent a shitload of money. Of course, I don't know why anyone over the age of 15 is surprised when people turn out not to be who they said they were.
That, and Ozzie wasn't in Florida until two months ago. Given how tight their families are, that was a game-changer.
I'm not surprised. It's just that BTF has had several threads over the years documenting Burly's repeated statements about his desire to retire or stay home, so I just wanted it also pointed out that he was (as expected) entirely full of ####.
In any event, with a new stadium and FA signings Loria is raising the value of the franchise and may be looking to sell in a couple years.
Or he changed his mind.
Is this true? Big FA signings usually look like poison for a would-be franchise buyer, adding gobs of debt to the balance sheet and only uncertain income. For the converse, see the Astros and Dodgers.
It's possible he never received an offer from a team he wanted to play for. The Cardinals don't seem interested in acquiring a starting pitcher, and that is the team other than the White Sox that he wanted to play for. I never believe a player that says they are going to retire, it might be a 100% honest comment from them at the time, but when it comes time to actually make the decision, a lot of things can make a difference.
Hard to believe the Cubs didn't at least put a lowball offer out there or least tell him they'd be interested at a discount.
He's thoroughly a Cardinal fan, and has transferred his primary allegiance to the White Sox, but if he's honest about playing in a situation that he enjoys, it's likely the Cubs are the last team he wants to play for.
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