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Monday, May 22, 2023

Can the Oakland A’s Catch the ’62 Mets?

Oakland lost at least 120 games in 5.2% of simulations and more than 120 games 3.6% of the time. The Mets only played in 161 games and had a tie; if we call that a .250 winning percentage (rather than counting the tie as a half-win and half-loss), the A’s are overall more incompetent in 2.5% of the simulated seasons, or about one-in-40. Those are slim chances, but not shocking — about the likelihood of a 15-homer hitter knocking out one in any given at-bat. Nobody had their minds blown by Xander Bogaerts or Jurickson Profar homering last year.

But the A’s have a secret weapon: the trade deadline. ZiPS can only evaluate the roster as currently constructed, but there’s at least some chance that Oakland sheds a few of its desirable players in the next couple of months, making the roster even worse. The A’s are unlikely to move performing players who are cost-controlled for a long time, but even if Ramón Laureano or Jace Peterson or Tony Kemp aren’t playing particularly well, they’re players who project to have value over the last two-thirds of the season. If the A’s can shed two wins worth of talent, which is something they’ve definitely shown they’re capable of doing, then all of the sudden, they’re looking at about a one-in-10 shot at 120 losses.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 22, 2023 at 02:47 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics

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   1. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: May 22, 2023 at 07:20 PM (#6129602)
It's really hard to imagine a trade making the A's any worse.
   2. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 22, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6129610)
Sinking below the 40-120 1962 Mets would be easy compared to looking up at the 1916 Philadelphia A's.
   3. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: May 22, 2023 at 10:38 PM (#6129635)
Through 48 games, they have a team ERA+ of 60. -6.4 bWAR.
   4. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: May 23, 2023 at 01:51 AM (#6129687)
At times, I think the Athletics ownership my be trying to do this on purpose, not to tank attendance, but to get people to come watch the hapless spectacle. We will know for sure when they start to give out souvenir brown paper bags.
   5. . . . . . . Posted: May 23, 2023 at 07:02 AM (#6129688)
There’s only one thing left to do. . . win the whole fuckin’ thing.
   6. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 23, 2023 at 07:08 AM (#6129691)
Richard Lovelady has a 195 ERA+ (and a 150 ERA+ for his last two MLB seasons combined). They should just have him pitch every inning of every game, like the 1884 providence Grays did with Old Hoss Radbourn.
   7. greenback does not like sand Posted: May 23, 2023 at 08:24 AM (#6129698)
We will know for sure when they start to give out souvenir brown paper bags.

Bags of shame seem like the kind of thing the A's would sell while banning BYOB.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: May 23, 2023 at 11:26 AM (#6129730)
There’s only one thing left to do. . . win the whole fuckin’ thing.

The St. Louis Blues had the worst record in the NHL several months into the 2018-19 season before they...... did just that.

   9. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 23, 2023 at 12:12 PM (#6129743)
Sinking below the 40-120 1962 Mets would be easy compared to looking up at the 1916 Philadelphia A's.

Oh, wow. Cleveland was sixth at 77-77; Washington was seventh at 76-77. If the Senators could have won one more game against anyone but Cleveland, every team in the league except the Athletics would have finished at .500 or better...
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6129752)
But the A’s have a secret weapon: the trade deadline.
Sure, the Mets may not want to part with the franchise’s signature achievement, but would they really make a lopsided trade with the A’s to ensure that they retain the honor?
   11. cookiedabookie Posted: May 23, 2023 at 12:57 PM (#6129755)
I'm holding out hope that some knuckleball pitcher gets a chance with this team. Where's Micky Jannis?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: May 23, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6129784)
Man, y'all mean. The A's have dropped their ERA from 7.72 in Apr to 6.00 in May. If current trends continue, they'll be the best pitching team by July, record-setting in Aug and in Sept teams will be giving them runs rather than face their unhittable staff.

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