Can the Oakland A’s Catch the ’62 Mets?

Oakland lost at least 120 games in 5.2% of simulations and more than 120 games 3.6% of the time. The Mets only played in 161 games and had a tie; if we call that a .250 winning percentage (rather than counting the tie as a half-win and half-loss), the A’s are overall more incompetent in 2.5% of the simulated seasons, or about one-in-40. Those are slim chances, but not shocking — about the likelihood of a 15-homer hitter knocking out one in any given at-bat. Nobody had their minds blown by Xander Bogaerts or Jurickson Profar homering last year.

But the A’s have a secret weapon: the trade deadline. ZiPS can only evaluate the roster as currently constructed, but there’s at least some chance that Oakland sheds a few of its desirable players in the next couple of months, making the roster even worse. The A’s are unlikely to move performing players who are cost-controlled for a long time, but even if Ramón Laureano or Jace Peterson or Tony Kemp aren’t playing particularly well, they’re players who project to have value over the last two-thirds of the season. If the A’s can shed two wins worth of talent, which is something they’ve definitely shown they’re capable of doing, then all of the sudden, they’re looking at about a one-in-10 shot at 120 losses.