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Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Cardinals steal their way to 10th consecutive win, pull off a trick in ninth inning to edge Brewers, 2-1

The Cardinals did not have an extra-base hit until the ninth inning. Didn’t need one. They created their own.

And now they’re about to filch a wild-card playoff spot while everyone is looking.

The Cardinals’ 10-game winning streak is the club’s first since 2001, when the team had two at least that long. In 130 years — a history that includes 11 World Series championships — this is the 13th time a Cardinals team has won at least 10 consecutive games.

It’s at least tied for the timeliest.

“It’s hard to capture,” manager Mike Shildt said. “Because I don’t plan on being done with it.”

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 22, 2021 at 10:09 AM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals

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   1. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 22, 2021 at 10:22 AM (#6040898)
And now they’re about to filch a wild-card playoff spot while everyone is looking.

As long as they're not felching a playoff spot while everyone is looking.....
   2. salvomania Posted: September 22, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6040939)
I nearly lost it when Shildt called for Gallegos to IBB Yelich to load the bases with two outs in the 9th and a 1-run lead... and when the count went to 2-2 on the pinch-hitter Pablo Reyes, I had visions of the tying run sauntering home and the top of the order coming up.

But Gallegos snapped off a nasty slider that darted down and away and Reyes swung over it to end the game.

Looking at Gallegos' numbers, they've been outstanding since he's joined the Cardinals after being acquired for Luke Voit in 2018. He's had a WHIP below 0.90 each of his three full seasons, with a K rate above 10/9ip.

I'm trying to figure out how he was worth 2.1 bWAR (and 20 runs better than replacement) in 2019 but only 0.8 bWAR (and 9 runs better) in 2021; his IP, WHIP, and K rate are similar, his HR/9 is better in 2021, and is leverage index is the highest of his career at 1.72.

EDIT: I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019. That's reflected in Fangraphs' fWAR (using FIP), which has Gallegos with 2.0 fWAR in 2021 but just 1.6 in 2019. Lesson: take reliever WAR totals with a large grain of salt.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: September 22, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6040968)
I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019. That's reflected in Fangraphs' fWAR (using FIP), which has Gallegos with 2.0 fWAR in 2021 but just 1.6 in 2019. Lesson: take reliever WAR totals with a large grain of salt.


Yep. I'll use bWar for starting pitchers, but relievers fWar is a much better indicator of their actual performance, although I would still prefer a system that was more based upon whip or component era for relievers with Wpa included. There is no rule stating that we have to treat roles equally in our evaluations. (And remember, I'm one of the original "haters" of Wpa, but it has a role, just was used massively incorrectly in it's earliest days)
   4. salvomania Posted: September 22, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6040977)
By "base-out runs saved" (a cumulative stat) Gallegos is 4th among NL relievers with 17.5, trailing Josh Hader (20.5), the Giants' Tyler Rogers (19.2), and the Pirates' David Bednar (who?) (17.9).

(Gallegos is 24th in the NL, with almost everyone in front of him---including Nos. 1-17---a starting pitcher, with Buehler leading at 43.5. Last in the NL is Jake Arrieta, at -37.6 base-out runs saved.)

In 2019 Gallegos led all MLB relievers in base-out runs saved, with 26.6, so that's a point in favor of him performing better in 2019 than in 2021.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2021 at 05:26 PM (#6041087)
Gallegos is 4th among NL relievers with 17.5
2019 Gallegos led all MLB relievers in base-out runs saved, with 26.6

A difference of 9 runs

I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019

A difference of 9 runs

Certainly by bWAR it's easy to see. He's given up a full run more per 9 in 2021 ... against lower-scoring opponents ... in a slightly better pitcher's park. An average pitcher would have given up 0.4 fewer runs per 9 in 2021 vs 2019 while Gallegos gave up 1 more. And you can make a FIP-based argument there too if you want -- facing lower-scoring opposition in a more pitcher-friendly park, we would expect more Ks, fewer HRs, fewer BBs -- which he has somewhat delivered (HR rate is much better but the Ks and BBs are a bit worse).

But sure, most of the bWAR vs fWAR difference is the usual FIP issue -- Gallegos out-pitched his FIP by 0.74/9 (with 0 UER) in 2019 and under-pitched his FIP by 0.44/9 (with 1 UER) in 2021. As we know, bWAR credits that difference, fWAR doesn't.

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