And now they’re about to filch a wild-card playoff spot while everyone is looking.

As long as they're not felching a playoff spot while everyone is looking.....

I nearly lost it when Shildt called for Gallegos to IBB Yelich to load the bases with two outs in the 9th and a 1-run lead... and when the count went to 2-2 on the pinch-hitter Pablo Reyes, I had visions of the tying run sauntering home and the top of the order coming up.

But Gallegos snapped off a nasty slider that darted down and away and Reyes swung over it to end the game.

Looking at Gallegos' numbers, they've been outstanding since he's joined the Cardinals after being acquired for Luke Voit in 2018. He's had a WHIP below 0.90 each of his three full seasons, with a K rate above 10/9ip.

I'm trying to figure out how he was worth 2.1 bWAR (and 20 runs better than replacement) in 2019 but only 0.8 bWAR (and 9 runs better) in 2021; his IP, WHIP, and K rate are similar, his HR/9 is better in 2021, and is leverage index is the highest of his career at 1.72.

EDIT: I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019. That's reflected in Fangraphs' fWAR (using FIP), which has Gallegos with 2.0 fWAR in 2021 but just 1.6 in 2019. Lesson: take reliever WAR totals with a large grain of salt.

I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019. That's reflected in Fangraphs' fWAR (using FIP), which has Gallegos with 2.0 fWAR in 2021 but just 1.6 in 2019. Lesson: take reliever WAR totals with a large grain of salt.

Yep. I'll use bWar for starting pitchers, but relievers fWar is a much better indicator of their actual performance, although I would still prefer a system that was more based upon whip or component era for relievers with Wpa included. There is no rule stating that we have to treat roles equally in our evaluations. (And remember, I'm one of the original "haters" of Wpa, but it has a role, just was used massively incorrectly in it's earliest days)

By "base-out runs saved" (a cumulative stat) Gallegos is 4th among NL relievers with 17.5, trailing Josh Hader (20.5), the Giants' Tyler Rogers (19.2), and the Pirates' David Bednar (who?) (17.9).

(Gallegos is 24th in the NL, with almost everyone in front of him---including Nos. 1-17---a starting pitcher, with Buehler leading at 43.5. Last in the NL is Jake Arrieta, at -37.6 base-out runs saved.)

In 2019 Gallegos led all MLB relievers in base-out runs saved, with 26.6, so that's a point in favor of him performing better in 2019 than in 2021.

Gallegos is 4th among NL relievers with 17.5
2019 Gallegos led all MLB relievers in base-out runs saved, with 26.6

A difference of 9 runs

I guess it all comes down to runs allowed: 28 in 2021 vs. just 19 in 2019

A difference of 9 runs

Certainly by bWAR it's easy to see. He's given up a full run more per 9 in 2021 ... against lower-scoring opponents ... in a slightly better pitcher's park. An average pitcher would have given up 0.4 fewer runs per 9 in 2021 vs 2019 while Gallegos gave up 1 more. And you can make a FIP-based argument there too if you want -- facing lower-scoring opposition in a more pitcher-friendly park, we would expect more Ks, fewer HRs, fewer BBs -- which he has somewhat delivered (HR rate is much better but the Ks and BBs are a bit worse).

But sure, most of the bWAR vs fWAR difference is the usual FIP issue -- Gallegos out-pitched his FIP by 0.74/9 (with 0 UER) in 2019 and under-pitched his FIP by 0.44/9 (with 1 UER) in 2021. As we know, bWAR credits that difference, fWAR doesn't.