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Sunday, January 15, 2023

Carlos Correa Shares What Giants Said About Ankle When Contract Fell Through

The shortstop initially reached a 13-year, $350 million agreement with San Francisco; however, the club had “concerns” with his physical. In an interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Correa revealed that the Giants’ conversations about his ankle with him were centered around the future, specifically “that in the future it might not hold up. Which I couldn’t understand.”

Correa went on to add, “I never missed a game because of my ankle. You look at my complete medical record in the big leagues, there is zero treatment on my ankle. And it has never hurt. I couldn’t understand how they were predicting the future, saying 8-10 years down the line something might happen to it.”


The shortstop, then, agreed to a 12-year, $315 million deal with the Mets, but the same scenario happened again. However, Correa revealed a new detail that may raise some eyebrows: New York used the same ankle specialist as San Francisco who did not pass him.

“He had already given an opinion to another team about my ankle. He was not going to change that. He was going to stand by what he was saying, of course, because that is what he believed,” Correa said to Rosenthal. “We did have other ankle specialists look at it and say it was going to be fine, orthopedists who know me, even the one who did the surgery on me. They were looking at the functionality of the ankle, the way the ankle has been the past eight years.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 10:42 PM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carlos correa, mets

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   1. Cris E Posted: January 16, 2023 at 01:42 PM (#6113356)
It boggles my mind how many of these people seem completely unaware how dumb they sound.
"We called the guy who told the Giants it didn't look good and he told us he thought it didn't look good."
"They talked to one guy and he didn't like the look of it. They should have talked to the guy who did the surgery: he thought it was great."
"I am a baseball player who has my entire identity wrapped up in the ability to play baseball, and I say my ankle will hold up fine. It hasn't fallen off yet, other than that time last summer when I couldn't stand up right away. What is everyone worried about?"
"Someone take my money, we need another $300m shortstop in this infield. I don't care about the medicals that broke up the biggest contract in Giants history."

I'm happy things worked out because MN got a great player at a fair price with an out at six years when Carlos is 35 years old, and he'll end up with seven years and $235m in his pocket with more years vesting behind them so his kids can eat. But the machinations here were not all that smart sounding. It's probably more a problem with the number of people involved and the extended length of time they had to comment on things.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: January 16, 2023 at 02:51 PM (#6113364)
an out at six years when Carlos is 35 years old

He will be turning 34 at the end of the guaranteed contract. But sure, those option years are great for the Twins. It is slightly front-loaded (he gets $108 over the first 3 years) but I still can't believe he agreed to those options.
   3. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: January 16, 2023 at 03:19 PM (#6113367)
I agree with Posnanski when he said (I'm paraphrasing) that he thinks Cohen woke up the next morning from a long night of mai tais in Hawaii, looked at his phone, and said, "I spent HOW MUCH on Carlos Correa? Don't we already have a shortstop?" Then he immediately called the doctor who did the physical for the Giants. In other words, this was buyer's remorse, only the "pending physical" saved him and he was able to return the product to the store for a full refund.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: January 16, 2023 at 03:31 PM (#6113368)
People also speculated that the Giants changed their minds as being buyer's remorse. People are over-thinking things.
   5. Darren Posted: January 16, 2023 at 07:12 PM (#6113385)
I'm a little surprised that Correa's Minnesota contract is only for $33 mil/year, that's only about $4 mil/year higher AAV than the original Giants contract. First, we all know that the majority of value in long-term deals is concentrated in the early part of the contract. Second, it seems like the concerns over the ankle were really about the second half of the contract. As ZIPS projects him for 26.3 WAR in those six seasons, I would have thought he'd get more like 6/$240 mil. With the cheap options on top of that, this seems like a steal for the Twins.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: January 16, 2023 at 08:08 PM (#6113389)
#5 ... agreed but you have to find somebody willing to offer that 5/$200 to begin with. Our main conclusion kinda has to be that the Giants' offer was well in front then, whether scared off, teams weren't willing to beat the Mets' offer and now here we see even the Twins getting a big discount. That's at least partly a great job of levveraging by the Mets and Twins but also maybe suggests the second-half diagnosis is so bad that teams are spooked that the first-half is risky. You could view the Twins contract as $40 AAB but assuming Correa is gonna miss a full season along the way (or an average of an extra 20-25 games a year over what Szym projected).

And for sure, even if Correa got those last 4 years guaranteed, 10/$270 would be a bargain vs where this all started. Turning those into 4 1-year options with high vesting thresholds almost seems like overkill. Whoever negotiated this for the Twins deserves a raise. Or does Correa have Ozzie Albies' agent?
   7. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 16, 2023 at 08:18 PM (#6113391)
Does Correa really not know the difference between the past and the future, or understand that medical conditions can be degenerative? ‘Cause that’s what it sounds like.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 16, 2023 at 08:56 PM (#6113394)
Does Correa really not know the difference between the past and the future, or understand that medical conditions can be degenerative? ‘Cause that’s what it sounds like.

There's no reason to think the average ballplayer is any smarter than the average American, and the average person has no clue about long term medical effects.
   9. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 16, 2023 at 10:01 PM (#6113404)
My understanding (third, maybe fourth hand) is that Correa was not fond of being a free agent before and it was kind of a train wreck and then he signed the three-year deal with opt-outs. And he really wanted to land somewhere with less fuss. Then this contract turned into a bigger fiasco and eventually he just wanted it over. Meanwhile, the Twins never cut ties and always stayed engaged, even when it looked like CC had signed (Twice!).

So eventually CC just said, get me to the Twins and the Twins used the previous teams' leverage and CC's willingness to sign and ended up with a pretty good deal (which was the only way he was landing in MN anyway). CC is obviously set for life and if everything vests then it is a reasonable deal for him and if he lasts six years it is a good deal for the Twins.

Not great circumstances, but hopefully it works out going forward.
   10. The Duke Posted: January 16, 2023 at 10:03 PM (#6113405)
Of course be understands it. It really doesn't help matters to say "it's fine now but it could all blow up tomorrow, couldn't it ?" He addressed it exactly the way Boras told him to address it "It's an old injury, I've never had an issue with it, I've been playing tons of games at a tough position for years. Other docs have said it's fine. Nothing to see here."

In addition to good PR all those statements are provably true. They in no way address the elephant in the room, of course.
   11. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 16, 2023 at 10:06 PM (#6113407)
Well yeah, I wasn’t literally asking if he doesn’t understand that stuff. It was a roundabout way of noting that he was being disingenuous. Exactly as instructed by Boras, of course.
   12. bookbook Posted: January 17, 2023 at 01:33 AM (#6113429)
Correa is, to all indications, quite intelligent. I agree that he’s saying what he has to say, and like all exceptional athletes, holding some secret belief that he is just a bit better than the odds.
   13. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 17, 2023 at 06:30 AM (#6113435)
I agree that he’s saying what he has to say, and like all exceptional athletes, holding some secret belief that he is just a bit better than the odds.


He IS better than the odds. Most professional athletes are crazy healthy, and the ones that are somewhat normal are Jed Lowrie - always injured with *something*.
   14. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: January 17, 2023 at 09:01 AM (#6113440)
I think Cohen made an impulsive, late-night decision to grab Correa and even the multibillionaire got a little nervous about a $450M payroll (after CBT taxes).
   15. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 17, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6113457)
He'll be playing in a nice ballpark, in a winnable division, with considerably less glare on him than in NYC or California. He won't have to spend the rest of his career looking up at butts of the Dodgers, either. Seems like it turned out OK.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: January 17, 2023 at 02:04 PM (#6113468)
Correa is, to all indications, quite intelligent.

This is great and all (seriously) but what do we really mean here. (This is not specific to Correa, he's just the handy example.) Correa never attended college as far as I know (he may have done some on his own time) and he atteded the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy for high school. I know nothing about the level of secondary academics at PRBA and I can even believe they're OK -- I assume one of their tasks is getting kids qualified for NCAA scholarships -- but I'm guessing not an elite college prep. His Wiki bio is so full of baseball that it certainly sounds like he did little else as a kid. Which is just to say intelligence without knowledge only gets you so far.

Correa might have great potential academically. He might be very quick on the uptake when things are explained to him, he might ask very good questions. But no matter his intelligence, I'm not going to assume he understands medical diagnostics or the financial ins and outs of baseball contracts or climate change or is up to speed on the war in Ukraine -- at least not in the absence of evidence that he is a major auto-didact. A college education isn't necessary to be knowledgable but exposure to facts, ideas, existing knowledge, debates, etc. is.

Meanwhile, the Twins never cut ties and always stayed engaged, even when it looked like CC had signed (Twice!). ... So eventually CC just said, get me to the Twins and the Twins used the previous teams' leverage and CC's willingness to sign and ended up with a pretty good deal (which was the only way he was landing in MN anyway).

But it goes beyond this (maybe). Supposedly the Twins had offered 10/$285 which he declined back at the start. When the contracts blew up, there were rumors the Twins were still happy to offer 10/$285. But it's ended up at 6/$200 and 4/$70 in one-year options which is a long way from 10/$285 guaranteed. Maybe the rumors were false but it sure looks like either the Twins were also badly spooked or they got a huge discount (seemingly without a cotentious negotiation ... with Scott Boras).
   17. Cris E Posted: January 17, 2023 at 02:31 PM (#6113475)
I think in these parts the label Intelligent can be earned by taking a deeper stats approach to how he plays the game. He talks about exit velocities and hard hit % and advanced stats and such all the time, and not just about his own game but in how he tutors the younger players around him. Plus he's a glib interview. So from a test scores and grades perspective he may or not be intelligent, but he's above the mean when compared with how most other players discuss the game. And honestly it might be a reason that this front office likes him so much. They fancy themselves modern men of baseball and Carlos wears a similar feather in his cap.
   18. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 17, 2023 at 02:39 PM (#6113479)
But it goes beyond this (maybe). Supposedly the Twins had offered 10/$285 which he declined back at the start. When the contracts blew up, there were rumors the Twins were still happy to offer 10/$285. But it's ended up at 6/$200 and 4/$70 in one-year options which is a long way from 10/$285 guaranteed. Maybe the rumors were false but it sure looks like either the Twins were also badly spooked or they got a huge discount (seemingly without a cotentious negotiation ... with Scott Boras).


I agree in broad strokes, but I think "badly spooked" is just one way to spin it - and not the most accurate way. With the new leverage they had - both the medicals and (supposedly) Correa's desire to get this nightmare over with - the Twins did exactly what they should do in that situation, negotiate in order to sign him (accomplished!) in the most team-friendly way possible (Looks like it to me). Both sides seem happy and most analysts I have read think it is a pretty solid deal, with some rish on both sides.
   19. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: January 17, 2023 at 03:32 PM (#6113488)
Hmmm, Correa and the Twins visit neither San Francisco nor Queens this season. It would have been interesting to gauge the reactions of those fans.
   20. Karl from NY Posted: January 17, 2023 at 06:10 PM (#6113514)
Every 29 year old thinks their body is in perfect condition and will last forever. This 44 year old would like to inform them that that is most definitely not true.
   21. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 17, 2023 at 06:28 PM (#6113518)
Hmmm, Correa and the Twins visit neither San Francisco nor Queens this season. It would have been interesting to gauge the reactions of those fans.


FWIW, this Giants' fan bears absolutely no ill will towards Correa. It was a perfectly reasonable business decision by the club and Correa was just trying to get the best guaranteed contract possible. It would have been great to have had him, but it's not my money that would have gone to pay him. Moreover, I'm not an MD so I have no idea whether their concerns were well founded. Time will tell whether the Giants' (and Mets') concerns were justified.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 17, 2023 at 06:49 PM (#6113521)
Time will tell whether the Giants' (and Mets') concerns were justified.
Not necessarily. His ankle could end up being totally fine until he's 43 or whatever, but maybe there was, say, a 70 percent chance that it wouldn't be, and he got a best-case scenario outcome. The teams' concerns would still be justified.
   23. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 17, 2023 at 07:00 PM (#6113522)
Not necessarily. His ankle could end up being totally fine until he's 43 or whatever, but maybe there was, say, a 70 percent chance that it wouldn't be, and he got a best-case scenario outcome. The teams' concerns would still be justified.


If his ankle holds up thru age 43, then their predictions/projections of catastrophic failure at some point during the contract were incorrect. It's more or less a binary outcome: he either stays healthy or he doesn't. We're not dealing with a multiverse where probabilities are all that meaningful since it's not a testable hypothesis.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2023 at 07:26 PM (#6113524)
If his ankle holds up thru age 43, then their predictions/projections of catastrophic failure at some point during the contract were incorrect. It's more or less a binary outcome: he either stays healthy or he doesn't. We're not dealing with a multiverse where probabilities are all that meaningful since it's not a testable hypothesis.

He could be healthy enough to play but arthritis saps his strength and quickness so he sucks. Or the pain causes him to stop working out and he ages badly. They'd be right in those circumstances too.
   25. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 17, 2023 at 07:42 PM (#6113526)
We'll know it when we see it whether the ankle holds up. If he goes down the road that you've outlined, then that's clearly a failure. That is, I'd define a failure not necessarily to be a Prince Fielder-type situation where he's medically unable to take the field. Rather, it's where his performance declines well below expectations due to his ankle.
   26. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 17, 2023 at 07:57 PM (#6113530)
It's more or less a binary outcome: he either stays healthy or he doesn't. We're not dealing with a multiverse where probabilities are all that meaningful since it's not a testable hypothesis.
The outcome, sure. But we can't, and teams can't, look at the outcome to determine retroactively whether the concerns are justified now. If there's a substantial risk according to the best available information at this time, the concerns are justified, whether or not it eventually comes to pass and whether or not it's testable. That's not a multiverse situation, that's just basic decisionmaking based on risk, which is ubiquitous.
   27. Cris E Posted: January 17, 2023 at 08:54 PM (#6113534)
Risk analysis is not backwards facing. When you need to make a decision you can only base it on the information available, and in cases like this you will be choosing based on utterly non-binary data. And even in retrospect they are plenty of grey areas where it was good in some respects and bad in others: played a ton without distinction or was an all-star but missed a bunch of time, maybe played poorly but mentored a young star into a better than expected outcome, maybe played well but spent years fighting with his teammates and embarassing the team in the papers. Life is rarely black and white.
   28. baxter Posted: January 17, 2023 at 10:47 PM (#6113539)
It surprises me that it is just his ankle that concerns people. He has missed a ton of time (for various reasons) playing over 130 games 3x in his career. 2020 was a short season, less time for the body to break down; he did play a full season then. He's sensational when he plays, but fewer players become more durable past age 30 (Paul Molitor seems to be the exception that proves the rule).

The injuries can be chance (not Frank) or bad luck, but he has trouble staying in the lineup; seemed obvious before the ankle issue arose.
   29. McCoy Posted: January 18, 2023 at 06:49 AM (#6113548)
Can't one just say X seems to be an exception?
   30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 08:47 AM (#6113551)
It's just an expression. The fact that an exception appears notable shows that maybe there is a rule. I don't much care for the expression, but I also don't care much for making a big deal of it.

I care even less for making a big deal of making a big deal of it. So ignore this comment.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 18, 2023 at 03:06 PM (#6113594)
It surprises me that it is just his ankle that concerns people. He has missed a ton of time (for various reasons) playing over 130 games 3x in his career. 2020 was a short season, less time for the body to break down; he did play a full season then. He's sensational when he plays, but fewer players become more durable past age 30 (Paul Molitor seems to be the exception that proves the rule).

The injuries can be chance (not Frank) or bad luck, but he has trouble staying in the lineup; seemed obvious before the ankle issue arose.


Everybody knows this and it's why nobody offered him $40+ M per year to begin with. His injury history had already been taking into account in the offers. The ankle was new information.

Over the next 6 years ZiPS projected him to 29 WAR while "projecting" he didn't make it to 600 PA in a single season and about 3300 PA overall. 29 WAR is supposedly worth somethng in the range of $250-275 M. By that projection, even at something like 2700 PA, he's be worth the $200 M contract the Twins gave him. A magically healthy Correa would be projected to about 35 WAR over the next 6 years which would be worth over $300 M.

They may or may not have been a good idea but all of Correa's contract offers have essentially assumed that he would repeat his last 6 years over the next 6 years. (This ha been true of most of this offseason's big deals.) Over the last 6 years he has produced 28 WAR in 2700 PA. Nobody cares that it's only 450 PA a year as long as a guy produces about 1 WAR every 100 PA.

Over the last 6 years, Correa has produced at 6.6 WAR/650. Lindor is just at 4.9 (same total WAR, heaps more PA); Seager, prior to his deal, was at 4.9 in FEWER PA than Correa, a full 8 fewer WAR total; X is at 5.0 in many more PA over the last 6, 2 fewer total WAR; Turner is at 5.0 with many more PAs, 1 fewer WAR. There's really not much doubt that, in terms of quality, Correa has been the best SS in the game but, as everybody knows, he doesn't provide a lot of quantity.

Now if you prefer a 4.5-5 WAR/year SS with 650 PA to a 4.5-5 WAR/year SS with 450 PA that's fine. But the reason why Correa had a 12/$360 contract voided by his physical rather than a 12/$450 contract is because of his past fragility leading teams to worry more than usual about his future fragility and Correa/Boras recognized those concerns (or at least knew everybody had them).
   32. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6113649)
Hmmm, Correa and the Twins visit neither San Francisco nor Queens this season. It would have been interesting to gauge the reactions of those fans.


Why would there be any noteworthy reaction from NY or SF fans? Do fans get upset with the player when their team decides not to sign them?


"Boo, you suck, you wanted to play here, you signed a contract and everything, but the owner thought the contract that was offered to you was actually too risky!"?
   33. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 12:18 PM (#6113650)
But no matter his intelligence, I'm not going to assume he understands medical diagnostics


I would assume a lot of athletes understand medical diagnostics a lot better than most people. Their entire career may depend on it (so it behooves them greatly to learn about it), they are typically seen by some of the best doctors in the applicable profession (who are probably better than most doctors at explaining their diagnosis to laypeople), athletes can get 2nd and 3rd opinions very easily (varied explanations tend to mean one of the deliveries will make sense), and athletes typically have an agent or team around them to help explain the diagnosis. None of that has anything to do with going to college.
   34. tshipman Posted: January 19, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6113652)
"Boo, you suck, you wanted to play here, you signed a contract and everything, but the owner thought the contract that was offered to you was actually too risky!"?


I'm pretty annoyed with Boras. He was willing to negotiate with the Mets after the physical, but not the Giants. That was pretty shitty.

***

People also speculated that the Giants changed their minds as being buyer's remorse. People are over-thinking things.


This is a dumb take. Farhan has said on the record that they were still trying to negotiate with Correa up to the moment where he signed with the Twins.
   35. Nasty Nate Posted: January 19, 2023 at 12:37 PM (#6113654)
People also speculated that the Giants changed their minds as being buyer's remorse. People are over-thinking things.
This is a dumb take. Farhan has said on the record that they were still trying to negotiate with Correa up to the moment where he signed with the Twins.
Which is dumb, my take or the "buyer's remorse" one?
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 02:07 PM (#6113662)
I would assume a lot of athletes understand medical diagnostics a lot better than most people. Their entire career may depend on it (so it behooves them greatly to learn about it), they are typically seen by some of the best doctors in the applicable profession (who are probably better than most doctors at explaining their diagnosis to laypeople), athletes can get 2nd and 3rd opinions very easily (varied explanations tend to mean one of the deliveries will make sense), and athletes typically have an agent or team around them to help explain the diagnosis. None of that has anything to do with going to college.

And the ability to absorb all that information and reach a reasonable conclusion depend on critical thinking and problem solving skills. If you've spent every moment since age 12 focused on baseball, you're not going to develop those. Your thinking skills don't develop unless you hone them on difficult problems. That ain't happening at a baseball academy.

The average American with a college degree isn't good at critical thinking. That's why people incur $150,000 in student loan debt for degrees that qualify them to make $60,000 a year.
   37. Cris E Posted: January 19, 2023 at 02:20 PM (#6113666)
Top athletes also need a certain layer of protective disbelief that regular odds pertain to them. They have to believe that they're the exception, that they can overcome, that they won't be hurt, that they'll recover and so on. Living in the shadow of the real odds that they can keep performing at the upper-most levels would be very draining if you didn't believe in yourself well beyond reason.
   38. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 19, 2023 at 02:50 PM (#6113667)
Of course, they also have to believe that “NOBODY ELSE BELIEVED IN [THEM]!!”
   39. Zach Posted: January 19, 2023 at 07:40 PM (#6113709)
"I spent HOW MUCH on Carlos Correa? Don't we already have a shortstop?" Then he immediately called the doctor who did the physical for the Giants.

Eh, if I'm spending that much money for a player who flunked a previous physical, there's no way I'm not taking a look at that previous physical before signing the contract.
   40. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 08:14 PM (#6113712)
And the ability to absorb all that information and reach a reasonable conclusion depend on critical thinking and problem solving skills. If you've spent every moment since age 12 focused on baseball, you're not going to develop those. Your thinking skills don't develop unless you hone them on difficult problems. That ain't happening at a baseball academy.


Bullshit. Absolute horseshit. "That guy may be better than me physically, but at least I'm smarter! Stupid jock doesn't know ####\"

- Do you think baseball breaks down to 'see ball, hit ball'? Because I guarantee more players think it's slightly more than that, based on specific abilities of specific batters and specific pitchers. Analyzing information and determining what comes next is a huge skill set. Implying that athletes don't think critically at their task is just a lazy, simple-minded argument. The classic trope is offensive linemen in football being big, dumb idiots, but turns out they score the highest on wonderlic tests.

- Intelligence in one field does not in any way equate to another field. There are multitudes of professors that have doctorates in their field of study that are incapable of the simplest of manual or general knowledge tasks. Assuming because one is not learned in a classical high school/college sense means they are not capable in others is a ridiculous argument.
   41. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6113748)
The average American with a college degree isn't good at critical thinking. That's why people incur $150,000 in student loan debt for degrees that qualify them to make $60,000 a year.

They sign up for the debt before they get the degree.

- Intelligence in one field does not in any way equate to another field.

True. And nobody is saying that it doesn't take a certain kind of intelligence to be a great baseball player. But there's no reason to think that intelligence translates to understanding medical diagnoses.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 01:08 PM (#6113751)
Bullshit. Absolute horseshit. "That guy may be better than me physically, but at least I'm smarter! Stupid jock doesn't know ####\"

- Do you think baseball breaks down to 'see ball, hit ball'? Because I guarantee more players think it's slightly more than that, based on specific abilities of specific batters and specific pitchers. Analyzing information and determining what comes next is a huge skill set. Implying that athletes don't think critically at their task is just a lazy, simple-minded argument. The classic trope is offensive linemen in football being big, dumb idiots, but turns out they score the highest on wonderlic tests.

- Intelligence in one field does not in any way equate to another field. There are multitudes of professors that have doctorates in their field of study that are incapable of the simplest of manual or general knowledge tasks. Assuming because one is not learned in a classical high school/college sense means they are not capable in others is a ridiculous argument.


I said nothing about manual or other skills. I said critical thinking. If you've never done it in your life, you won't be good at it.

And since you're being a dick, I'm well into the top of the 99th %-ile in intelligence, have multiple graduate degrees from elite institutions, and was a four time winner and Tournament of Champions Finalist on Jeopardy. I'm very likely smarter than every major league player (Mike Mussina and Joe Girardi might give me a run for my money) and 999 out of 1000 front office employees.
   43. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6113759)
But there's no reason to think that intelligence translates to understanding medical diagnoses.


And there's no reason to think Correa doesn't understand what the long term effect of injuries to joints can do to you, but a few of you in this thread have said exactly that!
   44. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 02:03 PM (#6113760)

And since you're being a dick, I'm well into the top of the 99th %-ile in intelligence, have multiple graduate degrees from elite institutions, and was a four time winner and Tournament of Champions Finalist on Jeopardy. I'm very likely smarter than every major league player (Mike Mussina and Joe Girardi might give me a run for my money) and 999 out of 1000 front office employees.


So? You are saying stupid ####, and I am calling you out on it. "Critical thinking" is not some magical skill that is only bestowed to those with high IQ scores that have gone to several elite institutions, it turns out that anybody can do it, regardless of education.
   45. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6113765)

And there's no reason to think Correa doesn't understand what the long term effect of injuries to joints can do to you, but a few of you in this thread have said exactly that!

Sure there is:

1. Multiple teams' medical staffs have disagreed with him.
2. He has a financial incentive to be overly optimistic about it. (As others have noted, it's possible he understands perfectly well and is just being disingenuous in his public comments.)
   46. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 02:59 PM (#6113768)
1. Multiple teams' medical staffs have disagreed with him.


Did you miss the part about the Mets and Giants relying on the same physician? I guess if you want to include the Twins that would be 'multiple teams' but they did sign him, so they are at least OK with it for the next 6 years.

2. He has a financial incentive to be overly optimistic about it. (As others have noted, it's possible he understands perfectly well and is just being disingenuous in his public comments.)


He was being disingenuous by not telling everyone his ankle is basically held together with spit and elmer's glue? What should he have said? "Yeah, I'm glad those two teams backed out of those contracts they sent my way, man I would just have felt so bad if my ankle slowed me down 7 years from now, I mean, what was I thinking?" When has an athlete ever talked completely truthfully about how injured they really are?
   47. Cris E Posted: January 20, 2023 at 03:24 PM (#6113774)
And the Twins doc could have said the same thing as the SF/NY guy but the contract was shortened enough for them to feel comfortable (or at least get it mostly insured.)
   48. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 04:15 PM (#6113785)
Did you miss the part about the Mets and Giants relying on the same physician?

I missed the part where anyone else confirmed that was the case, or that the Mets *only* talked to that one doctor and nobody else.

He was being disingenuous by not telling everyone his ankle is basically held together with spit and elmer's glue? What should he have said? "Yeah, I'm glad those two teams backed out of those contracts they sent my way, man I would just have felt so bad if my ankle slowed me down 7 years from now, I mean, what was I thinking?" When has an athlete ever talked completely truthfully about how injured they really are?

I'm not arguing that he should have said anything different, and you can call it whatever you want, the point is it's a reason not to take what he's saying at face value.
   49. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 07:39 PM (#6113806)
#48 - Fair enough. I was just getting grumpy over suggestions that an athlete, or non-elite schooled person, cannot understand a medical diagnosis. You're most likely correct, a few physicians did get a bit scared of his ankle, and yes, he most likely was just spouting nonsense to sound better.

   50. McCoy Posted: January 21, 2023 at 05:14 AM (#6113821)
I seem to recall that jeopardy looks for smart but not too smart people for contestants and they ask basically slightly above average trivia questions. They want people at home to be able to play along.

Winning jeopardy ain't easy but you don't need to be Einstein to win it. You need a good button finger and the ability to recall lots of general trivia.
   51. cookiedabookie Posted: January 21, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6113823)
I look forward to Correa wearing a Twins cap on his HoF plaque
   52. base ball chick Posted: January 21, 2023 at 03:04 PM (#6113843)
snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 02:07 PM (#6113662)

And the ability to absorb all that information and reach a reasonable conclusion depend on critical thinking and problem solving skills. If you've spent every moment since age 12 focused on baseball, you're not going to develop those.


- and very few people can do that by age 18 no matter HOW educated

Your thinking skills don't develop unless you hone them on difficult problems. That ain't happening at a baseball academy.


- you have ZERO idea what he has honed them on since he finished HS at age 18. lots and lots of brain development happens between 18 and 25

The average American with a college degree isn't good at critical thinking


- and so what is YOUR definition of "critical thinking"

jeopardy is not a game where you "think" about answers. it's a bunch of trivia questions that people even without a HS diploma know most of the answers to - like some of my cousins and aunties. those questions aren't for contestants who are great thinkers and polymaths. it IS a game for people with lightning fast reflexes with the button.

it is not that people here think you stoopidd but going on about how you know jeopardy real good is not a good way to show you are a "critical thinker". i personally would be a billion times more impressed if you could read the Bible and gnostic gospels in aramaic, ancient hebrew, ancient greek and latin - and had zero knowledge of jeopardy type trivia
   53. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 21, 2023 at 11:30 PM (#6113883)
Critical thinking comes from a willingness to read / listen to many points of view on any given subject, and to set up arguments with yourself where you try to understand the better points from all sides, even if you don't wind up agreeing with them. It's a skill that anyone can develop, but you have to be motivated to do it, and the motivation to do it is more important than your nominal IQ level.

Rote memorization of massive amounts of trivia can be fun, and superficially impressive, and occasionally even profitable, and those who are capable of such memorization feats may also have the capacity for critical thinking. But the latter skill doesn't necessarily follow from the former. Critical thinking is more a function of unrestricted curiosity, and a willingness to listen than it is of a Stanford / Binet score.
   54. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 02:31 AM (#6113886)
what actual knowledge does Snapper think Correa needs in order to make an informed financial decision. His arguments seem superficial and dishonest.

This is like saying Joe Biden needs to know how an M1 Abrams tank combusts fuel in order to make an informed decision on how to react to the war in Ukraine.

Or that Jim Lovell needs to understand how carbon dioxide is trapped in a LiOH cannister in order to pilot the Apollo 13 home.

Or Watson and Crick need to understand x ray crystallography in order to construct a DNA helix.

One would think Correa needs:

a. a realistic probability of when his ankle may give out, preferably plotted for each season
b. some way to translate that into cost benefit analysis, probably grade school math would suffice
c. a reasonable understanding of the limitations of medical science, I dunno if that can be quantified but most people seem to encounter real life examples where doctors dont know everything and yet they do seem to know some things.

Right? Ok so stop with the stupid faquin arguments already. Like Correa doesnt have "critical thinking" skills cause you know him so well or that Ohtani is a worse bet than two 4 WAR players because investment theory for retired people tells us we need to minimize our risks.

Dont you ever get tired of concocting arguments? jeezus
   55. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 22, 2023 at 05:15 PM (#6113953)
I'm well into the top of the 99th %-ile in intelligence, have multiple graduate degrees from elite institutions, and was a four time winner and Tournament of Champions Finalist on Jeopardy. I'm very likely smarter than every major league player (Mike Mussina and Joe Girardi might give me a run for my money) and 999 out of 1000 front office employees.


This has to rank up there as one of the strangest, yet most arrogant posts ever seen on Primer.

I would have to think just by posting that, you've knocked yourself down to probably the 93rd percentile, because it just seems so inane!

   56. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2023 at 05:42 PM (#6113960)
snapper and Trump in a bragging contest is something I'd pay good money to witness.
   57. Howie Menckel Posted: January 22, 2023 at 07:26 PM (#6113973)
I'm very likely smarter than every major league player (Mike Mussina and Joe Girardi might give me a run for my money)

Mussina (degree in Economics from Stanford; graduated 6 months early) struck me as the smartest MLB player I interviewed, even granting that in the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Girardi came across as a creative thinker, but I wasn't dazzled.

   58. baxter Posted: January 22, 2023 at 08:33 PM (#6113976)
I would think that regardless of Correa's level of formal education or his native intelligence, he would subject to some cognitive biases in evaluating his own health prospects (I think that's been alluded to here).

I suppose there also is a rough correlation between how well read one is (a form of intelligence) and one's performance on jeopardy. But, isn't intelligence more a part of problem solving/analysis than rote memorization (I am pretty good at the latter). I mean, with the Bengals in the playoff's, it made me think about Virgil Carter and Greg Cook, each of whom I looked up on the internet to see how my memories of them jibed. After reading up on Carter, the question I have for Mr. Snapper is are you as smart as Carter? This is not completely sarcastic. That Carter sounds really smart, without having really gotten any credit for it (there is an interesting WSJ article on line about the nerdy QB), say as much in football as Bill James does in baseball.
   59. bookbook Posted: January 23, 2023 at 02:33 PM (#6114038)
You don’t have to give a #### about particle physics or Keats to be smart. Correa has learned about his chosen field. He hired the shrewdest agent, I betcha that Boras helps his curious clients understand NPV and asset allocation and life planning, too. (I have an MBA, and I know getting one is NOT a sign of intelligence, but some concepts are useful to young centimillionaires).

Carl Everett probably didn’t grok those ideas.
   60. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6114091)

I would think that regardless of Correa's level of formal education or his native intelligence, he would subject to some cognitive biases in evaluating his own health prospects (I think that's been alluded to here).


But isnt this, as you say: cognitive bias, something entirely divorced from education, intelligence, baseball skill etc. Isnt it more like some people have that and some do not?

I know people with Master's degrees who are entirely full of themselves and their belief in their own abilities. And there are people who have no more than a high skook education and are well aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

I mean I don't know which of these categories Correa falls into but I wouldnt just assume that because he's a baseball player he's going to think his ankle is pristine. Now he might be overconfident in his ability to field or hit or play baseball, I assume that comes with the territory, but in the cold light of sitting in Boris's office he might be entirely self aware of the physical realities of his ankle.

SO I dont consider that aibility to have anything to do with intelligence or athleticism. Its more like what they often refer to as "emotional intelligence." I didnt read that book but it has something to do with emotion/character.
   61. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:34 PM (#6114092)
But it's ended up at 6/$200 and 4/$70 in one-year options which is a long way from 10/$285 guaranteed. Maybe the rumors were false but it sure looks like either the Twins were also badly spooked or they got a huge discount (seemingly without a cotentious negotiation ... with Scott Boras).


Well you pointed this (the weird team options at the end) very early on, and quite succinctly. But dont these options also suggest that Correa was willing to basically punt any chance to maximize his age 34+ earnings in return for cashing out basically his entire career? And that more or less reflects how Correa/Boris evaluate the risk his ankle blows up at some pt. So they are thinking there is some significant risk there.
   62. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 23, 2023 at 09:15 PM (#6114111)
It surprises me that it is just his ankle that concerns people. He has missed a ton of time (for various reasons) playing over 130 games 3x in his career.


OK but is it fair to go back more than 2 or 3 years to use these as valid data pts? Not trying to say you're wrong but as a starting pt for discussion: how much data is irrelevant/too much?

For me, one full season of data is still not quite enuf to draw conclusions on many issues that we debate here: fielding, hitting etc. Going back one season seems reasonable to fill that out, the batting average data for example is a lot more predictive with two full seasons for example. Going back 2 seasons to me seems dicey because you're not going to improve much on what you have and then you have the countervailing notion that these are real human beans who age, etc

I think going back more than 2 seasons is just obviously not helpful.
   63. baxter Posted: January 24, 2023 at 02:40 AM (#6114153)
60. Yes, I agree w/what you say. I think I am pointing to what is called observer bias, but yes, maybe Boras advised him (one reason to have an agent rather than do it oneself).

62. It may not be fair; it's a business decision where both sides seek to maximize value. Do the ballclubs have some proprietary knowledge about how to evaluate injury history?
More importantly, as you say it may not be accurate, so in that sense a ballclub may undervalue a player. Perhaps another ballclub could value the player more accurately and sign the player for more money (while getting more value). The ballclubs want to avoid overpaying. They would also like to get away w/underpaying. But, if one club evaluates a player's chances of injury as higher than another ballclub does, maybe the latter club signs the player and reaps the value. There was some talk above about how many physician evaluate a ballplayer (or perhaps not the ballplayer himself in person, but the radiological images). Different physicians can draw different conclusions from the same physical findings. It would pay to have an accurate predictor.

But, then again, generally health doesn't improve with age in the first place. Do some players tend to get injured more frequently (frequent discussions about Nick Johnson on this site parsing out his various maladies and how they seemed to be unrelated)? Maybe it's related to subjective pain perception.

It's one thing to stand too close to the plate and get beaned. But, what about pulling muscles (really a tear, isn't it), are some players prone to it? They lose playing time, perhaps they are less effective upon recovery. Are some more likely to experience those muscle injuries than others? Correa's a great player, when he's in the lineup.

I couldn't think about playing a doctor on tv.

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