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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Caught stealing above average stat breakdown

This stuff is fantastic. Hopefully, they plan on expanding such breakdowns to other positions. We already know who has the strongest arms. Anyone who has ever played knows it’s not just the arm strength. So who is the most accurate? Who combines both?

The same is true in the infield. How much impact does a great receiving 1B have? Who is the best at scooping throws?

Now, I imagine the impact isn’t great but finding out who is good at these skills is still helpful as I have found that incremental improvements in a lot of areas add up. It also might help us better appreciate a good 1B playing in front of a scatter-armed infield.

So Smith, currently sidelined as he works his way back from concussion symptoms, looks like he’s a pretty poor preventer of stolen bases, having cut down just one of the eight basestealers he’s seen, an unimpressive 11% rate that’s less than half of the 25% mark he had two seasons ago. (It’s actually worse than that: He hasn’t thrown out anyone, but instead got credit when Julio Urías picked off Mike Yastrzemski.)

Except … wait a minute. We know Syndergaard is extremely poor at holding runners on; he’s talked about this, openly, for years, and last year, 30 of 33 basestealers were successful against him. We know that Carroll isn’t just “very fast,” he is “literally the fastest.” Maybe it’s not so much that Smith didn’t do his job. Maybe it’s that the job he was given wasn’t possible to do.

Maybe, as 2013 NL stolen-base champion Eric Young Jr. once said, echoing the thoughts of a century’s worth of backstops, “You’re usually always stealing off the pitcher. Catchers … you know it doesn’t matter if he has a good arm. If you get a good jump off the pitcher, the catcher’s not going to be able to catch up.”

jimfurtado Posted: April 26, 2023 at 08:03 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: catcher defense, catching, statcast

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   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 26, 2023 at 10:15 AM (#6125628)
This is great stuff.
   2. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: April 26, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6125629)
agreed
   3. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:10 PM (#6125670)
question about the methodology used. Are they assigning a fixed run value to the CS? It seems like they are at 0.66 runs or so. But there are other ways to calculate that also. You could take into account the base/out situation. The runner himself and the batters.

But it also harkens back to another question I keep asking: why do they keep expressing OAAs in round numbers? Presumably the results they are calculating are in decimals places. Are they worried we cant handle it?
   4. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:10 PM (#6125671)
double post.
   5. villageidiom Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:38 PM (#6125678)
But it also harkens back to another question I keep asking: why do they keep expressing OAAs in round numbers? Presumably the results they are calculating are in decimals places. Are they worried we cant handle it?
Yes. I'm sure a decimal falsely implies precision of the estimate. This is also true with WAR, where increments of 0.1 are meaningless.

It has the added benefit that it eludes the lunkhead criticism of "you can't make half an out, this is garbage" but that's probably not the primary motivation.
   6. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: April 26, 2023 at 06:32 PM (#6125691)
Are they worried we cant handle it?

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE STATS...!
   7. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 26, 2023 at 08:16 PM (#6125707)
This is also true with WAR, where increments of 0.1 are meaningless.


Right. But at least they report them. With OAAs Im not sure what is going on.
   8. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: April 27, 2023 at 10:46 PM (#6125933)
This is also true with WAR, where increments of 0.1 are meaningless.
I'm glad they give WAR a decimal point, though, because there is a meaningful difference between 1.7 and 2.3 - truncating it would eliminate signal (granted, as well as some noise).

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