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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, December 07, 2022Chaim Bloom’s empty words about Bogaerts are insultingOf course, the Red Sox will be mediocre with him. Bogaerts is just the most recent bungling of a superstar’s exit. The Red Sox decided early on to not pay for Lester, Mookie, and Bogearts. Their actions are more credible than their words. The Red Sox ownership, which is the common factor in the mishandling of contract negotiations with top players, has lost all credibility. Now, I don’t have a problem with a team walking away from a player it feels is overvalued in the market. What I do resent is the ownership lying about their intentions, especially while making multiple GMs scapegoats for those ownership level decisions. It treats the players and fans as idiots. The shelf life of the Red Sox
jimfurtado
Posted: December 07, 2022 at 10:44 AM | 38 comment(s)
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1. Rough CarriganContrary to popular belief, flags actually only fly for 15 years.
Do you have some numbers to actually back that up though?
In reality, it's probably less. Is anyone deciding to attend or watch a game today base on the team's record 10 years ago? 5?
To the extent past success matters it's b/c it signals current team quality. If a team wins the World Series, and then goes all Marlins on their roster, is anyone going to show up b/c of the flag?
That was a team-friendly contract.
Don't get me wrong, the owners will spend money. They just don't spend it wisely. They are reactionary, not planful.
There is also no loyalty. Win a championshiop, two years later you get the boot. Thie happened to both Cherrington and Dombrowski. It's a very "what have you done for me lately" ownership group. Which is fine but eventually it's not just perception, it's reality.
And the reality is, the team isn't people friendly. It treats employees well until it doesn't need you anymore. That attitude will catch up to you eventually.
It matters. Today's twentysomething premium ticket buyers are the ones who got into the habit of following the team when it was good during their adolescent years. Not every single person obviously, but it can make a difference of a couple thousand per game.
No discernible effect at least, Xander signed with the Padres.
#### the Red Sox.
They will extend their home grown stars, but only if the player is willing to take an extreme home team discount, like Pedroia, or sign short term deals like Ortiz.
I can remember the last time they offered a market rate long term deal to any of their home grown stars.
Devers + Sale to the Giants for David Villar, Luis Matos, and Eric Silva.
Hope the savings are spent wisely.
Other than the near-tautology that any FA you signed, you signed at "top dollar" in that you probably made the best offer ... JD Martinez was not "top dollar." That was supposedly all about the Red Sox refusing to give in to his 5/$125 demands, leading to the 3/$72 plus 2 player options at about $20 contract. The Red Sox nickeled and dimed to save themselves about $10 M ... then tried to nickel and dime Betts and Bogaerts and took advantage of the Betts trade to get out from under half of Price. That's a pattern of behavior that suggests the Red Sox will not pay top dollar for FAs or extensions and haven't been willing to do so at least since Price and Sale blew up in their face (which might make anybody skittish).
Granted, they paid top dollar (and then some) for Jansen but I don't think we got a whiff of a hint of a serious rumor that they were interested in Verlander, deGrom or Rodon.
Verdugo turned in the equivalent of a 5 WAR season, with 4 more to go under team control, and Jeter Downs hadn't yet crapped the bed.
And .190 in 2021 at AAA. BA is everything when it's that bad in the minors. A good prospect has to be able to hit .275 against miLB pitching. Has anyone with a sub-.250 BA in the minors ever turned into something offensively?
Another thing I wonder is if Henry and the rest of ownership has kind of disengaged. They've had the thrill of breaking the curse and the first championship, but everyone from their first decade are gone, and they just don't feel the same about the team without Pedroia, Ortiz, and the like (it might also explain why Henry pushed Bloom to bring Cora back; he's a connection to when owning the team was a real thrill rather before the business side took over). You don't become a billionaire by staying sentimental or emotional for long, and maybe the Red Sox are no longer the shiny new toy that's more fun than increasing one's net worth.
Otherwise, Bloom is completely incompetent, and I think that's the less likely possibility.
Your clarification doesn't really help me. If 2018 validated a high payroll and keeping up with the joneses, why did they go against that just a year later?
Sure, I mean it's possible, but Suzuki already had accumulated 10 WAR (half his career total) in just a shade under 500 games through the age of 26. Wong, not so much.
I'm disappointed that the Sox mishandled the X negotiation, but I think they are justifiably gun shy about big money long term contracts, and I think you can make a good argument that there is better financial efficiency in a team development philosophy where you shop the mid-tier free agent/trade market and hope your farm system produces a small stream of impact players. This philosophy probably mitigates the variance of risk, which should provide consistency, while providing opportunity for high outcome amplitude when all the pieces come together.
YEAR WINS PLACE Decision Maker playoffs?
2008 95 2 Epstein lost in champ
2009 95 2 Epstein lost in division
2010 89 3 Epstein n/a
2011 90 3 Epstein n/a
2012 69 5 Cher n/a
2013 97 1 Cher n/a
2014 71 5 Cher n/a
2015 78 5 Dom n/a
2016 93 1 Dom lost in division
2017 93 1 Dom lost in division
2018 108 1 Dom won WS
2019 84 3 Dom n/a
2020 24 5 Bloom n/a
2021 92 2 Bloon lost in champ
2022 78 5 Bloom n/a
Thing is, I don't want the team I root for to be obsessed with "better financial efficiency" above all else. Baseball (or any sport) is not just a business. I'm tired of good-to-excellent players that are fun to watch and fun to root for being shown the door early because resigning them may not be the most "financially efficient" thing to do.
Since they are, I have slid pretty seamlessly into a more "financially efficient" mode for myself as regards the Sox: since I don't enjoy the team as much without the well-liked, still-good players that I became attached to being let go in one way or another because they are deemed too expensive, I don't go to games anymore, I rarely watch games on TV anymore and primarily follow them from afar.
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