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Friday, November 05, 2021
The Chicago Cubs picked up left-hander Wade Miley off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, the team announced.
Miley, 34, went 12-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 2021, his second season with the Reds. He’s set to make $10 million via a contract option for the 2022 season.
Miley has pitched for seven teams in his 11-year career, including helping the Milwaukee Brewers reach the postseason in 2018, the Houston Astros do so in 2019 and the Reds achieve that feat in 2020.
The Cubs have openings in their rotation after the departure of Jake Arrieta in August and with right-hander Zach Davies a free agent.
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1. Brian C Posted: November 05, 2021 at 04:54 PM (#6051463)Likewise, I don't see the urgency to let him go if I'm the Reds.
Then they don't have to pay the buyout on his option
Oh, and don’t you hate pants?
I guess the fWAR is (in theory) more "predictive," but still, 2.9 WAR doesn't grow on trees...
It's a perfectly fine move by the Cubs -- plenty of payroll, no pitchers, no commitment, who cares if maybe he's only "worth" $7-8 -- with an eye to making a small trade of him at the deadline. I expect them to grab at least one more durable starter at this quality level.
From the Reds' perspective, b-r suggests that if they exercised this and the Barnhart options, payroll would have been $140-$145 (post-arb) which probably wouldn't leave the Reds with room to make any additions. But then they seem to still be counting Castellanos but he's already opted out so I guess it's currently around $110. Hopefully they've done these just to free up some room (maybe an offer to Castellanos) and aren't just going cheap.
Krall has already made public comments about "aligning payroll to resources" this offseason.
I don't think they've taken on a significant contract since the Archer deal over three years ago.
Is there some capable sewner in the house that can stitch "Los Muertos" on a jersey?
(Asking for a friend.)
18.1 IP, 36 Hits, 7 HR and 5 DB, but only 4 walks and 13 K's. A .446 BABIP for the month will put a dent in your pitching line for sure, but so will 7 HR in 18 IP.
He was having a problem with his Neck/Collar Bone
From that September 25th article:
HOWEVER he had neither velocity drop nor spin rate drop in September. So the first things you look at to see if he might have had an injury don't show anything. But he himself said he wasn't right, and obviously a bunch of teams were concerned,
Here are Projected Payroll commitments for the teams above Cubs in waiver wire priority. In Millions (Guaranteed, ARB, and Pre ARB) if all options exercised (which obviously they won't be) as of this moment from BR
Baltimore - 32
Arizona - 87
Texas - 47
Pittsburgh - 43
Washington - 108
Miami - 48
Chicago -67
Cincinnati - 149 !
(Above numbers are with Miley's option still on the Reds ledger and not on the Cubs yet as they haven't updated)
Seems like Baltimore, Texas, Pittsburgh, and Miami all should have had the payroll room to add him. So it's pretty telling that ALL those teams passed on him, and their concerns of injury caused this.
I Think you might have a point. Or the past two seasons of revenue where teams are adjusting their budget to try and recoup their "losses" from the past two seasons.
I don't even know how a team justifies letting a guy go who had 28 starts with a 141 era+ for a measly 10mil option. Even assuming that fwar is more accurate, his fip was still 3.97... 10 mil is a relative pittance for a number 3 starter if you are thinking along that line.
1. Reds have set a new, much lower, payroll target
2. Miley is hurt and I wonder if people aren’t concerned this could be thoracic outlet syndrome
3. He had a bad Sept before the IL
4. While 1/10 seems like a good deal it’s only one year and then he’s gone so it’s not THAT big a deal for a team that won’t be in playoff contention
5. Seven teams passed on him which explains why they couldn’t get a trade done
It’s possible the Cubs picked him up simply to trade him at a more opportune time and don’t have a desire to pay him $10 million either
That's basically 2021 Tyler Anderson. 167 IP, 2.1 fWAR, 1.8 RA-9 WAR, 1.7 bWAR
That's still worth 15M , give or take. But as pointed out, only one year left, and is the "excess value" of $5M worth it to a team that is unlikely to contend when there is downside injury risk and looming lockout/CBA uncertainty.
The more I look at this, (and see the points brought up by others) the less insane it looks than at first blush
I can't imagine the Cardinals would have passed on Miley for nothing, nor a few other contending teams. I mean if he's injured, then that is why you require a physical before approving a trade, but beyond that, if you are giving Miley away and he is able to show up to spring training, you have to give him a shot.
I admit that I don't know why teams have payroll targets. Why not sign anyone and everyone with an positive expected net return on investment, and no one with a negative expected net return on investment?
Miley's had an odd career making him hard to project (or at least requiring one to take a stand). From ages 27-30, he had a 84 ERA+, mainly due to having an ERA more than half a run worse than his FIP. From 31-34, he's had a 130 ERA+, mainly due to having an ERA more than half a run better than his FIP. Overall his FIP went from 4.32 to 4.14 which seems a real improvement. So is he a guy who learned to pitch at 31? (Not unheard of, seems especially common for LHP) And now he's turning 35 so is that newfound ability about to fade away? I'm not sure how Steamer got to their projection but will assume that's mainly an age effect ... also if that was his projection for Cincy, an extreme hitters park, then that projection may not be too bad.
But I think it is mainly a "reasonable" money decision. I've already mentioned he only got 2/$15 guaranteed in this contract -- when signed, nobody expected the option to be picked up. Back in 2020, Kyle Gibson got 3/$28. In 2020, the Red Sox got Martin Perez for 1/6; in 2021 they got him for 1/4.5. The Yanks' gammble on Kluber cost only $11. The Twins got Pineda for 2/20 pre-covid. Alex Wood got just $4 M out of the Dodgers in 2020 (less with covid adjustment) and only $3 out of the Giants this year (he is much less durable than Miley).
Today's FA market is very tough on average-ish guys, even slightly above average-ish guys. The collective team decisions here suggest that Miley's "free market value" is considered to be 1/$10 or worse. To me it looks close enough that competitive teams should have been willing to throw Cincy at least a similarly crappy prospect as the Tigers did for Barnhart.
Which arguably gets us back to "net return on investment." Obviously nobody comes to the ballpark or makes an exta effort to tune in because Miley is pitching. His effect on your revenues is very slim -- i.e. that being a win or two better over the year helps attendance, in-park advertising, etc. by a thousand per game or whatever. But Miley, or any aveage player, is about as likely to have a negative impact as a positive one.
Miley's not a non-tender guy but looking at last year's non-tender crop is a fair representation of what solid but average-ish players can command. Schwarber was of course good all year (3 WAR total). Duvall was apparently sparkling on defense (3.1 WAR for $5 M plus mutual option). Other good non-tendered pickups: Archie Bradley (0.7 WAR, 0.3 WAA, $6 M); backup C Curt Casali (0.7 WAR, 0 WAA, $1.5 M).** The not so good: Pederson was lousy for the Cubs then not good but picked his spots for the Braves (0 WAR total). Rosario was not good for Cleveland then big for Atl (1.1 WAR total). Hand ($10) and Robles (just $2) were not good (0 WAR each). All up that came to about 9 WAR for about $50 M.
** I might not normally include such a marginal player (and wouldn't have known to consider him if not for a handy list) but he is probably the best backup C around. Roughly 6 full seasons of backup work, 1200 PA, 5.1 WAR, 1.2 WAA. Seems a backup C that provides average production should be worth more than $1.5 M. (For you framing nuts, he's got 4.5 fWAR so close enough.) It's hard to see how he could have possibly cost the Reds more than $2 M to keep him last year.
For instance I could see the Cardinals going for him in return for Justin Williams. Cubs eat 5-7 million and buy Williams and his 6 years of control. As an example.
I thought waivers were still League first? So the Orioles and Rangers didn't have a chance? It would have been Diamondbacks, Pirates, Nationals, Marlins, then the Cubs.
Based upon his most recent season, to call Miley averish is a bit excessive, the guy just had an all star quality season. We are talking about a guy who had a better season than Wainwright.
He had one great year at 34 and he was hurt and terrible at the end. Maybe he’s found a new gear. Maybe the sticky stuff helped for a while. I’m guessing Zips will still have him as a 1-2 WAR pitcher. Good for him if he found the fountain of youth but I can see a team that is Payroll strapped with no chance of winning division not wanting to pay that price. The Cubs are in the same boat so not sure why they want to pay that price either.
(again barring a physical that says different)
Uland honestly if a team isn't in contention, adding an all star quality starter to the roster will at least help sell the concept of competing... Seriously, outside of him being injured beyond the first month, nothing about this makes rational sense.
This is an incredibly awkwardly-written sentence. How about, "Miley has pitched for seven teams in his 11-year career, and has helped three different clubs make the postseason in the last three years: the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018, the Houston Astros in 2019 and the Reds last year." (Actually, you're probably better off splitting it into two sentences.)
Wade Miley - 3.37 ERA, 4.26 xERA
Wainwright - 3.05 ERA, 3.85 xERA
Miley was 1-3, 8.35 ERA in final month.
in real life, you don't say, "well, his stats were really good last year so I have to pay for that (or most of that). you say, "he turns 35 next week, and what do I expect in 2022?"
meanwhile, how did his 0-3, 5.65 ERA for the Reds in 2020 "help them get into the postseason?"
overall, I think there may be downside than up - but I also don't think Miley 1 yr $10M is going to make or break anybody's season.
that said, I can understand frustration by Reds fans.
1. Exercise and keep him for $10 million
2. Try to flog him for a lottery ticket before 4 pm today
3. Renegotiate with him and get his salary down to $3-4 million by 4 pm today or cut him and pay him $1 million.
I doubt number 2 will happen. I wonder whether number 3 is their goal. $10 million is a lot of scratch for a team that will win 70-75 games
Honestly, there's been waaaaaay too much overthinking in this thread. Like any pitcher, Miley may be good in 2022 or he may be bad. But even if the Cubs don't think they can win more than 60 games in 2022, they still need someone to pitch, and regardless of what they do, they're unlikely to do better at lower cost than what Miley is projected to provide.
They needed a pitcher, they got a pitcher. Simple as that. Likewise, the Reds ditched him because they've decided to be cheap. Also simple as that.
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