Unless I'm missing something, this seems like an obvious move for the Cubs to make given the opportunity, with no real downside. Even if he craters, they're still no worse off than they are now, and it's not like he's overly expensive.

Likewise, I don't see the urgency to let him go if I'm the Reds.

How the hell does he not get traded for something of value before he ends up on waivers? Miley was outstanding in 2021.

Reds said they tried to trade him, no takers. Cubs are probably the 8th/9th team in line for a claim so many teams passed on waiver wire as well.

He had 5.7 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR this year.

I don't understand why he was on waivers. Did they have to waive him to decline his option?

I don't understand why he was on waivers. Did they have to waive him to decline his option?

Then they don't have to pay the buyout on his option

By waiving him, and him being claimed, they don’t have to pay the $1 milll buyout.

Oh, and don’t you hate pants?

The Reds' indefensible cheapness has finally caused me to officially abandon them as a fan.

That WAR sicrepancy is one of the bigger I've seen (5.7 bWAR vs. 2.9 fWAR).

I guess the fWAR is (in theory) more "predictive," but still, 2.9 WAR doesn't grow on trees...

Yep, seems to have had a 119 FIP+. Now it's his best season in 6 years and he'll likely still project as an average starter (career 2 WAA, 4 of it this year). His contract was 2/$15 (with the Cubs now picking up $1 M of it) so I guess I can see how 1/$10 is "expensive" for him. DeSclafini got just 1/$6 last year with a roughly similar track record but coming off a lousy 2020. Still, locking in a durable #3-4 starter should have enough value for a competitive team (alas, the Cubs are not) to grab this deal.

It's a perfectly fine move by the Cubs -- plenty of payroll, no pitchers, no commitment, who cares if maybe he's only "worth" $7-8 -- with an eye to making a small trade of him at the deadline. I expect them to grab at least one more durable starter at this quality level.

From the Reds' perspective, b-r suggests that if they exercised this and the Barnhart options, payroll would have been $140-$145 (post-arb) which probably wouldn't leave the Reds with room to make any additions. But then they seem to still be counting Castellanos but he's already opted out so I guess it's currently around $110. Hopefully they've done these just to free up some room (maybe an offer to Castellanos) and aren't just going cheap.

Hopefully they've done these just to free up some room (maybe an offer to Castellanos) and aren't just going cheap.

Krall has already made public comments about "aligning payroll to resources" this offseason.

Curious as to why neither the Diamondbacks nor the Pirates claimed him.

This one angers me. If you can't afford a 1 yr/10 million dollar deal for your best pitcher, you might as well just close up shop.

The Cincinnati Deads?

This happened with Brad hand last year. Almost exact same facts. At this time of year it’s hard to make a trade so in order to avoid an outflow of either $1 or $10, they offered him up, no takers, and waived him. A bunch of other teams, all of whom should need someone like this then passed too. They did the same with Barnhart and got a lottery ticket ( a bad one ). No one wants to add salary at this time of year.

nor the Pirates

I don't think they've taken on a significant contract since the Archer deal over three years ago.

And I say [14] as a baseball fan in Canada who somehow finds his way every year to Opening Day in Cincinnati. The parade, the unofficial holiday, the pageantry fails, the 1876 history, the handlebar, pre-game warm-up at the Keystone, walking across the Roebling Bridge, reluctant owner of both a Ken Griffey Jr and Felipe Lopez bobblehead doll, and owner of a Joey Votto "Los Rojos" jersey...I wonder if some enterprising underground sewer (sewee? what's the future tense of the verb "to sew"? Is it just "shall sew" is that it? That seems lame, is it "sewner?"...)
Is there some capable sewner in the house that can stitch "Los Muertos" on a jersey?
(Asking for a friend.)

I don’t know what the waiver priority was but the Mets really should have been in on Miley. Their starting pitching was very bad in the second half.

It's got to have something to do with the looming labor negotiations that no one else grabbed him off waivers. This is just stunning.

Miley had a disastrous September before he went on the IL

18.1 IP, 36 Hits, 7 HR and 5 DB, but only 4 walks and 13 K's. A .446 BABIP for the month will put a dent in your pitching line for sure, but so will 7 HR in 18 IP.


He was having a problem with his Neck/Collar Bone

From that September 25th article:

When Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Wade Miley was warming up for his start against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday, he felt the same strain in his neck that he had been pitching with over the last few weeks.

Looking back, Miley said he probably should have stopped warming up. Instead, he pitched through it and allowed six runs over three innings. Even after, Miley tried to keep going, and he threw a bullpen on Friday hoping that he could make his scheduled start on Monday.


Miley wanted the twinge of pain near his collarbone to go away, but the Reds placed him on the injured list on Saturday. This season, Miley made 28 starts and had one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 3.37 ERA.

“It's been kind of slowly, gradually getting worse,” Miley said. “Just every start, I wasn't recovering, wasn't bouncing back … I can't be effective like that. I'm not only hurting myself, I'm hurting the team. I'm not going to give us a chance to win going out there like that.”

HOWEVER he had neither velocity drop nor spin rate drop in September. So the first things you look at to see if he might have had an injury don't show anything. But he himself said he wasn't right, and obviously a bunch of teams were concerned,



Here are Projected Payroll commitments for the teams above Cubs in waiver wire priority. In Millions (Guaranteed, ARB, and Pre ARB) if all options exercised (which obviously they won't be) as of this moment from BR

Baltimore - 32
Arizona - 87
Texas - 47
Pittsburgh - 43
Washington - 108
Miami - 48
Chicago -67

Cincinnati - 149 !

(Above numbers are with Miley's option still on the Reds ledger and not on the Cubs yet as they haven't updated)

Seems like Baltimore, Texas, Pittsburgh, and Miami all should have had the payroll room to add him. So it's pretty telling that ALL those teams passed on him, and their concerns of injury caused this.

Was it concerns of injury or concerns of spending any money at all on baseball?

It's got to have something to do with the looming labor negotiations that no one else grabbed him off waivers. This is just stunning.

I Think you might have a point. Or the past two seasons of revenue where teams are adjusting their budget to try and recoup their "losses" from the past two seasons.

I don't even know how a team justifies letting a guy go who had 28 starts with a 141 era+ for a measly 10mil option. Even assuming that fwar is more accurate, his fip was still 3.97... 10 mil is a relative pittance for a number 3 starter if you are thinking along that line.

It seems like there are a variety of factors

1. Reds have set a new, much lower, payroll target
2. Miley is hurt and I wonder if people aren’t concerned this could be thoracic outlet syndrome
3. He had a bad Sept before the IL
4. While 1/10 seems like a good deal it’s only one year and then he’s gone so it’s not THAT big a deal for a team that won’t be in playoff contention
5. Seven teams passed on him which explains why they couldn’t get a trade done

It’s possible the Cubs picked him up simply to trade him at a more opportune time and don’t have a desire to pay him $10 million either

I hadn't thought of TOS....good point.

Seven teams passed on him which explains why they couldn’t get a trade done

What?

FWIW, Steamer projects Miley to a 4.41 ERA over 170 IP

That's basically 2021 Tyler Anderson. 167 IP, 2.1 fWAR, 1.8 RA-9 WAR, 1.7 bWAR

That's still worth 15M , give or take. But as pointed out, only one year left, and is the "excess value" of $5M worth it to a team that is unlikely to contend when there is downside injury risk and looming lockout/CBA uncertainty.

The more I look at this, (and see the points brought up by others) the less insane it looks than at first blush

The teams that passed on him are non-contending teams, they have no real need for a 10mil number three starter... If the Reds only shopped him to non-contenders, then there is a real issue with their front office that needs to be talked about.

I can't imagine the Cardinals would have passed on Miley for nothing, nor a few other contending teams. I mean if he's injured, then that is why you require a physical before approving a trade, but beyond that, if you are giving Miley away and he is able to show up to spring training, you have to give him a shot.

The Reds didn't make the post season, but they were in contention this year, and may well be next year. Miley has positive value for them. By waiving him they're just giving money away.

Reds have set a new, much lower, payroll target

I admit that I don't know why teams have payroll targets. Why not sign anyone and everyone with an positive expected net return on investment, and no one with a negative expected net return on investment?

#28 Cash flow can be an issue.

I can’t count. Six teams passed on him. That’s 20% of the league right? There must be plenty of info that he might be a big injury risk. $10 million doesn’t seem great if that’s true. Also may be the case that Chicago thought they could flip him in a few weeks. Maybe their intent is not to keep him. Has any Chicago officlal been quoted that Wade Miley is going to be their number 4 starter ?

#28: And what do you do if the expected net return for Wade Miley is less than $10M?

Miley's had an odd career making him hard to project (or at least requiring one to take a stand). From ages 27-30, he had a 84 ERA+, mainly due to having an ERA more than half a run worse than his FIP. From 31-34, he's had a 130 ERA+, mainly due to having an ERA more than half a run better than his FIP. Overall his FIP went from 4.32 to 4.14 which seems a real improvement. So is he a guy who learned to pitch at 31? (Not unheard of, seems especially common for LHP) And now he's turning 35 so is that newfound ability about to fade away? I'm not sure how Steamer got to their projection but will assume that's mainly an age effect ... also if that was his projection for Cincy, an extreme hitters park, then that projection may not be too bad.

But I think it is mainly a "reasonable" money decision. I've already mentioned he only got 2/$15 guaranteed in this contract -- when signed, nobody expected the option to be picked up. Back in 2020, Kyle Gibson got 3/$28. In 2020, the Red Sox got Martin Perez for 1/6; in 2021 they got him for 1/4.5. The Yanks' gammble on Kluber cost only $11. The Twins got Pineda for 2/20 pre-covid. Alex Wood got just $4 M out of the Dodgers in 2020 (less with covid adjustment) and only $3 out of the Giants this year (he is much less durable than Miley).

Today's FA market is very tough on average-ish guys, even slightly above average-ish guys. The collective team decisions here suggest that Miley's "free market value" is considered to be 1/$10 or worse. To me it looks close enough that competitive teams should have been willing to throw Cincy at least a similarly crappy prospect as the Tigers did for Barnhart.

Which arguably gets us back to "net return on investment." Obviously nobody comes to the ballpark or makes an exta effort to tune in because Miley is pitching. His effect on your revenues is very slim -- i.e. that being a win or two better over the year helps attendance, in-park advertising, etc. by a thousand per game or whatever. But Miley, or any aveage player, is about as likely to have a negative impact as a positive one.

Miley's not a non-tender guy but looking at last year's non-tender crop is a fair representation of what solid but average-ish players can command. Schwarber was of course good all year (3 WAR total). Duvall was apparently sparkling on defense (3.1 WAR for $5 M plus mutual option). Other good non-tendered pickups: Archie Bradley (0.7 WAR, 0.3 WAA, $6 M); backup C Curt Casali (0.7 WAR, 0 WAA, $1.5 M).** The not so good: Pederson was lousy for the Cubs then not good but picked his spots for the Braves (0 WAR total). Rosario was not good for Cleveland then big for Atl (1.1 WAR total). Hand ($10) and Robles (just $2) were not good (0 WAR each). All up that came to about 9 WAR for about $50 M.

** I might not normally include such a marginal player (and wouldn't have known to consider him if not for a handy list) but he is probably the best backup C around. Roughly 6 full seasons of backup work, 1200 PA, 5.1 WAR, 1.2 WAA. Seems a backup C that provides average production should be worth more than $1.5 M. (For you framing nuts, he's got 4.5 fWAR so close enough.) It's hard to see how he could have possibly cost the Reds more than $2 M to keep him last year.

#30: If the Reds couldn't trade him at that price, how are the Cubs gonna do it? I suppose it's possible that it's almost a rule 5 type thing where somebody lower in waiver order than the Cubs gambled they could grab him without giving the Reds a scratch ticket and will now give that scratch ticket to the Cubs. Anyway, the Cubs are absolutely desperate for rotation innings just to have a shot at 60 wins, Miley's either going to stink so bad in spring he's released, spend the year on the IL or be the Cubs' #2 starter on opening day (or #1 if Hendricks gets hurt). Steamer projects Miley to be a bit better than Hendricks actually. The Cubs' best rotation ERA+ last year was 93 (Alzolay) and the best FIP was 4.49 (Mills, about a 95 FIP+). The top pitching prospect (Marquez) was out all year.

It’s a timing thing. People are setting their 40 man right now. All the 60 day IL have to be added. All the rule 5 eligibles have to be decided upon. After all that, you can likely flip Miley. We will see. Why do the Cubs need an averagish starting pitcher for $10 million? They don’t. They can pick up rotation filler far cheaper. I’m betting he gets flipped and the Cubs get a player. They may just cut him and pay $1 million if they are wrong. I think it’s a good play - I bet they get a good prospect for him a bit later.

For instance I could see the Cardinals going for him in return for Justin Williams. Cubs eat 5-7 million and buy Williams and his 6 years of control. As an example.

Six teams passed on him. That’s 20% of the league right?

I thought waivers were still League first? So the Orioles and Rangers didn't have a chance? It would have been Diamondbacks, Pirates, Nationals, Marlins, then the Cubs.

I don’t think so - it’s been all MLB for a while I believe

It’s a timing thing. People are setting their 40 man right now. All the 60 day IL have to be added. All the rule 5 eligibles have to be decided upon. After all that, you can likely flip Miley. We will see. Why do the Cubs need an averagish starting pitcher for $10 million? They don’t. They can pick up rotation filler far cheaper. I’m betting he gets flipped and the Cubs get a player. They may just cut him and pay $1 million if they are wrong. I think it’s a good play - I bet they get a good prospect for him a bit later.

Based upon his most recent season, to call Miley averish is a bit excessive, the guy just had an all star quality season. We are talking about a guy who had a better season than Wainwright.

He’s had 16 WAR in 11 seasons and 6 of them were last year. So 10 WAR over 10 prior seasons. Averagish is probably overstating it but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

He had one great year at 34 and he was hurt and terrible at the end. Maybe he’s found a new gear. Maybe the sticky stuff helped for a while. I’m guessing Zips will still have him as a 1-2 WAR pitcher. Good for him if he found the fountain of youth but I can see a team that is Payroll strapped with no chance of winning division not wanting to pay that price. The Cubs are in the same boat so not sure why they want to pay that price either.

I don't think any of that makes sense. You can't ignore an all star season for 10 mil and throw it away. I don't care how cash strapped you are, I don't care how much you doubt it's legitimacy, it's 10mil... in baseball terms that is about 8 mil below a qualifying offer. You have the option to lock up a guy for one year for well below any reasonable version of his market value.. this is a no brainer.... even teams like the Royas of the 90's would have made this move.

(again barring a physical that says different)

Uland honestly if a team isn't in contention, adding an all star quality starter to the roster will at least help sell the concept of competing... Seriously, outside of him being injured beyond the first month, nothing about this makes rational sense.

Miley has pitched for seven teams in his 11-year career, including helping the Milwaukee Brewers reach the postseason in 2018, the Houston Astros do so in 2019 and the Reds achieve that feat in 2020.

This is an incredibly awkwardly-written sentence. How about, "Miley has pitched for seven teams in his 11-year career, and has helped three different clubs make the postseason in the last three years: the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018, the Houston Astros in 2019 and the Reds last year." (Actually, you're probably better off splitting it into two sentences.)

2021

Wade Miley - 3.37 ERA, 4.26 xERA
Wainwright - 3.05 ERA, 3.85 xERA

Miley was 1-3, 8.35 ERA in final month.

in real life, you don't say, "well, his stats were really good last year so I have to pay for that (or most of that). you say, "he turns 35 next week, and what do I expect in 2022?"

meanwhile, how did his 0-3, 5.65 ERA for the Reds in 2020 "help them get into the postseason?"

overall, I think there may be downside than up - but I also don't think Miley 1 yr $10M is going to make or break anybody's season.

that said, I can understand frustration by Reds fans.

I think I was wrong on the Cubs flipping Miley. His option needs to be exercised by 4 pm today. So the Cubs have three plays:

1. Exercise and keep him for $10 million
2. Try to flog him for a lottery ticket before 4 pm today
3. Renegotiate with him and get his salary down to $3-4 million by 4 pm today or cut him and pay him $1 million.

I doubt number 2 will happen. I wonder whether number 3 is their goal. $10 million is a lot of scratch for a team that will win 70-75 games

They picked up the option, and honestly, why would anything other than "keep him for $10 million" be what we would expect? They need pitching, Miley is a pitcher, and contrary to the opinion expressed in #41, $10 million isn't really "a lot of scratch" for an MLB team who needs a starting pitcher.

Honestly, there's been waaaaaay too much overthinking in this thread. Like any pitcher, Miley may be good in 2022 or he may be bad. But even if the Cubs don't think they can win more than 60 games in 2022, they still need someone to pitch, and regardless of what they do, they're unlikely to do better at lower cost than what Miley is projected to provide.

They needed a pitcher, they got a pitcher. Simple as that. Likewise, the Reds ditched him because they've decided to be cheap. Also simple as that.

One other thing. A guy like Miley on a one year $10M is way better than signing a similar guy to 3/30. The 10 that they’re spending might be wasted but they need a pitcher and aren’t locked into anything long term.