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Friday, November 13, 2020

Chicago Cubs’ Ryan Tepera lands MVP vote thanks to misclick

The 33-year-old right-hander received a single 10th-place vote for one point, leaving him tied for 18th in the NL balloting, far behind winner Freddie Freeman. Still, that’s more support than the likes of Bryce Harper, Jacob deGrom and Nolan Arenado drew as they got shut out.

Tepera struck out 31 in 20⅔ innings over 21 games and pitched in the playoffs for Chicago.

Turns out there was a simple explanation for the vote. It was a mix-up—one that didn’t affect the results in any way.

“I meant to hit Trea Turner and thought I had,’’ longtime St. Louis Post-Dispatch writer Rick Hummel said. Fondly called “The Commish” by his peers, Hummel in 2006 won the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s award for excellence that is presented during the Hall of Fame’s induction ceremonies.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 13, 2020 at 09:47 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mvp, ryan tepera

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   1. Boxkutter Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5988585)
Pretty sure this is going to be the basis for the next Trump Election Fraud lawsuit in whatever state. Gonna say 25,000 must've misclicked and so those votes don't count.
   2. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5988592)
This was joked about in NBA circles, about the possibility of Seth Curry getting MVP votes (I don't think it ever actually happened).
   3. TJ Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5988594)
That’s the same excuse he used when choosing Tepera over Turner for his fantasy baseball team...
   4. Rally Posted: November 13, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5988607)
Tepera represents all the anonymous relievers who come in the game to throw one inning of 95 mph+ fastballs. They are the real backbone of MLB today. They are the ones who pitch the innings that separate victory and defeat.
   5. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 13, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5988611)
For a split-second I thought former Rangers mediocrity Nick Tepesch had somehow landed on a roster for 2020 and garnered an MVP vote.
   6. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 13, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5988636)
It's probably apocryphal, but there's a story that the reason Lloyd Waner was elected to the Hall of Fame was because the Veteran's Committee was accidentally given Paul Waner's stats instead of Lloyd's, in those days that were not only pre-Baseball Reference, but pre-Baseball Encyclopdia.
   7. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 13, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5988652)
He should have his mouse taken away.
   8. Rally Posted: November 13, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5988657)
#6, almost certainly false. That would mean the voters paid attention to stats.
   9. Ron J Posted: November 13, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5988659)
#8 Almost word for word Bill James' reaction to this story.
   10. Tim M Posted: November 13, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5988662)
And there it is, carved in stone for all time, 18th in MVP voting.

Seriously, they aren't going to fix that?
   11. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: November 13, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5988665)
Tepera had 0.2 WAR, at least. I'm sure I could find people with negative WAR who got MVP votes, if I wasn't too lazy to look it up.

EDIT: OK, I looked it up. Not one but two players with negative WAR received MVP votes in 1997: Deivi Cruz (DET, -0.5) and Tony Womack (ARZ, -0.9[!]). They both got not one but two points each!
   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 13, 2020 at 06:52 PM (#5988666)
I'm sure I could find people with negative WAR who got MVP votes, if I wasn't too lazy to look it up.
My first guess was Joe Carter, and sure enough, he finished tied for 17th in 1990 (7 vote points) with a whopping -1.7 WAR.

Pedro Guerrero also got a vote that year at -0.1 WAR.

EDIT: I’m gonna go ahead and pat myself on the back for that guess, because it apparently happens pretty rarely - only other times from 1970-2000 were George Bell in 1992, Deivi Cruz (???) in 1996, and Jack Billingham in 1974, who managed to get MVP and CY votes despite -0.1 WAR. Carter’s negative WAR total was by far the worst.
   13. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: November 13, 2020 at 07:40 PM (#5988675)
Re 12: I'll take that Coke, thanks.

Actually, I remember Cruz as being one of the few half-way decent players on the godawful late 90s/early 00s Tigers. (I mean, it's not like he was great or anything, but his 6.8 WAR fron 1998-2000 was actually fourth best on the team, behind Damon Easley, Bobby Higginson and Tony Clark, and just ahead of Brad Ausmus!)
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2020 at 07:56 PM (#5988678)
Tony Womack ... Joe Carter ... Jack Billingham. By extrapolation I am now sure that Ryan Tepera will play a meaningful role in a future notable world-series winning game!
   15. Rally Posted: November 13, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5988680)
Ron, yeah, that sounds familiar. I probably read that fromJames, though I forgot what he was referring to
   16. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5988698)
Billingham was a great example of pitching for the right team. He followed that 74 with 0 WAR in 75, -0.8 WAR in 76. His combined record across those 3 season: 46-31. 1977 might top them all though with -1.5 WAR and a 75 OPS+ and still went 10-10. Oddly enough when he went to Det, he put up 2 and 2.9 WAR before finishing his career with another incredible (in a bad way) -1.4 WAR, giving up 36 R (all earned) and 56 H (!!) in 31 innings. A whopping 7 HRA which is just astounding in that day and age.

In short, put Rick Reuschel on the 70s Reds and he's probably in the HoF.
   17. Itchy Row Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:55 PM (#5988699)
In California’s 2003 gubernatorial election, there were more than 100 candidates. A guy named George B. Schwartzman finished ahead of everybody who wasn’t a legitimate candidate and/or a celebrity apparently because his last name was similar to “Schwarzenegger.”
   18. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: November 14, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5988714)
Lucky the "misclick" happened with his 10th place vote instead of his 1st place vote.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5988736)
Tepera wishes he had an MVP clause in his contract.
   20. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 14, 2020 at 06:52 PM (#5988742)
Billingham was a great example of pitching for the right team.

FWIW, Fangraphs thinks rather more highly of Billingham, 21.9 WAR to 9.9. (They do still have his best years coming outside of Cincinnati - Fangraphs has him peaking in '70-'71 as an Astro, 7.8 WAR over two years accompanied by a 23-25 record.)
   21. Ben V-L Posted: November 15, 2020 at 09:39 PM (#5988880)
In short, put Rick Reuschel on the 70s Reds and he's probably in the HoF.

If you put Rick Reuschel on the 70's Reds, he'd pitch 250 innings his first two seasons and never be healthy again.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5988881)
That's weird. In Hou, his ERA was much worse than his FIP but in Cincy about the same and in Det his ERA was much better than his FIP. For his career, his ERA is only 0.11 runs higher than his FIP. That's only worth about 2-3 wins. For whatever reason, fWAR gives him 19 RA9-war and it's hard to see where that came from. At b-r, his RA9 is higher than his RA9opp and that was in a slight pitcher's park for his career. The WAR glossary doesn't explain how they get RA9-war.

It does say this which strikes me as odd: "Once you have a number that you can compare to league average, you need to convert that from runs per game to wins per game. To do that, you need to divide by runs per win. This gets more complicated for pitchers than hitters because pitchers directly influence their run environment in a way that hitters do not. So instead of using the league average runs per win value, we calculate it specifically for each pitcher."

I don't get that. Pitchers obviously affect the run environment of the other team but they don't affect the run environment of their hitters -- or at least not very much. Surely they're not counting all those runs the Reds scored for Billingham into his run environment. Anyway, I assume they're doing something sensible but I don't see how anything sensible can come to 10 wins.

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