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Wednesday, December 01, 2021

‘Chicago!’ Stroman says he’s joining Cubs

The Cubs did a lot of subtracting in 2021, but on Wednesday night they were poised to make a notable addition in free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman.

Who was first to report that the sides were beyond the conversation stage? Stroman himself, with a Tweet that simply said, “Chicago!” and tagged the Cubs.

The club didn’t immediately make an announcement about the apparent agreement. Terms of the deal were not known, but Stroman was widely expected to receive a significant multiyear commitment going into the offseason.

“Chicago has always been one of my favorite cities,” Stroman Tweeted. “Culture and passion everywhere. Beyond excited to pitch in front one of the best fan bases in all of sports. Thank you to everyone in the city for the warm welcome. I can feel it. Let’s get to work!”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 08:00 PM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, marcus stroman

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 08:19 PM (#6055695)
@JeffPassan
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
   2. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:06 PM (#6055702)
"Chicago - it's full of culture! Culture and passion!"
   3. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:11 PM (#6055706)
That’s a good deal for the Cubs. Wish the Mets had brought him back.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:17 PM (#6055709)
Culture and passion and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope!

What an odd contract for the Cubs. What does Jed have up his sleeve for 2022-24 that Stroman plays a part in? In which he can opt out after season 2 when there's at least some chance the kids are starting to get it done. It seems like a perfect contract for somebody like Toronto (or any other win now team) or maybe even the Angels. But I suppose it's never a bad thing when you get a pitcher of Stroman's quality for 3/$71.

EDIT: Maybe Jed has decided we have a shot at 7th -- who doesn't?!
   5. Stop Oppressing Zonk by Investigating His Heroes Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6055712)
Umm.... what?

Maybe Jed noticed that Schwarbs, Soler, Bryant, (soon) Rizzo, and Lester are actually all still available and decided "Maybe we should give it one more shot..."
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6055713)
Huh. This is…unexpected. My reaction is pretty much the same as Walt’s. I guess he could bring a decent return in trade if it goes that way. But he seems like a good guy and will be interesting to watch. Welcome to Chicago, Marcus!
   7. dejarouehg Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6055714)
Well, at least Wittenmyer will be happy. He seemed to have a fervent belief that Stroman was a stud. No idea what he was watching or the Cubs are thinking. Mediocrity takes the day!
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:29 PM (#6055715)
Maybe Jed noticed that Schwarbs, Soler, Bryant, (soon) Rizzo, and Lester are actually all still available and decided "Maybe we should give it one more shot..."
Russell and Zobrist too, presumably. And Alfonso Soriano.
   9. McCoy Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:29 PM (#6055716)
Jed is really following the Thed blueprint. A shinier Edwin Jackson signing.
   10. Stop Oppressing Zonk by Investigating His Heroes Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6055719)
ALbert Almora, Jesse Chavez, Pedro Strop, Wade Davis, Cole Hamels, and Dexter Fowler are also still unsigned.

...so is...

TYLER CHATWOOD!
   11. McCoy Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6055724)
Alfonso Soriano is available.
   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:38 PM (#6055726)
And Alfonso Soriano is available.
It’s like I’m not even here. Sigh.
   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6055727)
Chatwood is still here?? I knew we shouldn’t have gone with the decomissioned Russian rocket. I told you that piece of crap would never make it to the sun, but noooo, you guys wanted to save money.
   14. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:44 PM (#6055730)
ALbert Almora, Jesse Chavez, Pedro Strop, Wade Davis, Cole Hamels, and Dexter Fowler are also still unsigned.
Arrieta is probably in his bunker in Texas awaiting his orders from Q.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 09:51 PM (#6055732)
It is puzzling for the Cubs, but I like the value. He's been worth 8 WAR in 360 IP over the last three seasons.
   16. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 01, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6055744)
This is a good, smart deal. I think it has to mean the Cubs will be doing more. He fills a much needed hole, but there are still more. Will they go after more of the bigger fish?

What I don't understand is how Stroman couldn't get a similar deal with a team closer to contention.
   17. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 11:45 PM (#6055759)
Don’t really understand the people calling Stroman mediocre or the next Edwin Jackson. He’s a good pitcher! As #15 notes, 8 WAR in the last three seasons (actually two seasons, since he opted out in 2020). 8 WAR, 360 IP at a 135 ERA+. He’s a groundball pitcher so I hope you guys have a good IF defense.
   18. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 01, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#6055763)
Don’t really understand the people calling Stroman mediocre or the next Edwin Jackson.

Who said that? I smell a Stroman argument. /ducks
   19. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: December 02, 2021 at 01:26 AM (#6055778)
I like this. Of course, it doesn't seem to make sense if you (rightfully) assume the Cubs are probably going to be lousy for the duration of this contract. But the alternative at this point seems to be an all-out tanking a la the early Theo days. It's been shown that a rebuild not necessarily mean putting an unwatchable product on the field. So I guess kudos to the Cubs for trying to field a mid-70s win team than a 60-ish win team.
   20. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 01:29 AM (#6055779)
Who said that? I smell a Stroman argument. /ducks

#7 referred to him as a mediocrity, unless he was talking about the club as a whole. Either way he indicated he doesn’t think Stroman is very good. #9 called this a “shinier Edwin Jackson signing.”
   21. McCoy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 05:55 AM (#6055784)
The beginning of the Thed era had the Cubs going out and signing a bunch of lottery ticket players and then oddly Edwin Jackson for 4 years at a decent price. Jed has now brought in a bunch of lottery tickets and oddly enough a decently priced FA pitcher. Yes Marcus is better than Edwin but it's still a head scratcher.
   22. bfan Posted: December 02, 2021 at 07:21 AM (#6055789)
So I guess kudos to the Cubs for trying to field a mid-70s win team than a 60-ish win team.


This is vexing to me; I am not sure of the point, especially since this must only be a start to the above difference in the team (if he is a 3 WAR guy, he turns the Cubs from a 65 win team to a 68 win team). I am guessing that with this contract and where the Cubs are in their talent cycle now, he will not be a part of the next good Cubs team.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 07:22 AM (#6055790)
I thought the Edwin Jackson signing made sense (probably a year long). 2012 of course had been terrible and after the trades of Maholm and Dempster, the horror of Volstad. The post-deadline rotation had Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley and somebody names Jason Berken. They desperately needed some reliable innings and in the previous 5 years, Jackson had nearly 1000 with a 105 ERA+ and was just turning 29. In the two years he did pitch for the Cubs, he might have been expected to put up about 5.5 WAR, instead -4. With that performance, the Cubs potentially win 70 then 77 which is the sort of "let's not be terrible" that you bring in a guy like Jackson for.
   24. Stop Oppressing Zonk by Investigating His Heroes Posted: December 02, 2021 at 07:37 AM (#6055792)
Curiously, that 2012-2013 offseason -- the guy they REALLY wanted was Anibal Sanchez, but they missed out on him to the Tigers (I vaguely recall the Tigers went to 5 years and the Cubs wanted to stick at 4).

Sanchez went on to have a stellar 2013 (a pretty good 2014, then turned into a pumpkin) while Jackson was a pumpkin out of the gate.

They also signed Scott Feldman that same offseason - who was pretty good and then became a somewhat legendary trade chit at the deadline. The other chits were Nate Schierholz - who was surprisingly good (and inexplicably not traded, unless I guess everyone knew he was a flash in the pan), Scott Hairston, and Carlos Villanueva. Scott Baker was the big lottery ticket - he was a solid starter for the Twins from 2008-2011, missed all of 2012 (TJS), but just never it made it back.

To be fair - that was a pretty weak FA market... except for the guy the Cubs SHOULD have signed (and I think most people wanted them to sign): Then-29 yo Zack Greinke (signed with LAD for 6/145).

The other big offseason get that year, though (besides Feldman-the-chit!), was rule 5 selection Hector Rondon...
   25. dejarouehg Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:11 AM (#6055804)
To be clear, I don't believe that Stroman is Chatwood or Edwin Jackson. He is certainly better than that. But I don't think he even has the potential to be a difference maker. His upside is a good 3 starter...similar to Hendricks. He's more likely a mid-to-low 3 or terrific 4. For a team that is virtually directionless, why waste that kind of money?

I'd much rather have done the Robbie Ray deal. To me, given the injury risk that comes with every pitcher, I'm much more focused on who has the bigger impact and upside, and Ray was the perfect fit.

Once that wasn't in the cards, I just wouldn't have wasted the money. As a Cubs (& Mets) fan, I don't care if they win 65 or 77 games.

I'm resigned to mediocre baseball for a while, even if they sign Story after the lockout.

This isn't complaining. I have no problem with the rebuilding and was a firm believer that had they kept the core together, it would have just been a better brand of boring, incessant swing-and-miss, mediocre baseball.
   26. Rally Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6055819)
Fun Stroman fact:

He and Mike Trout both graduated from high school in 2009. Before the 2009 season they both made Baseball America’s top 100 HS prospects.

Trout was #80, as a pitcher
Stroman was #96, as a shortstop
   27. Charles S. is pretty fast for an old guy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6055829)
Once that wasn't in the cards, I just wouldn't have wasted the money. As a Cubs (& Mets) fan, I don't care if they win 65 or 77 games.

"Wasting" the Ricketts money is 1,976,243rd on my list of things I'm worried about. They're not in any danger of luxury tax worries. Hendricks, Miley and Stroman optimistically give you 500 innings of big league quality starting pitching. If some combination of Alzolay, Steele, Thompson etc. gives you 250 more, then you're looking at credible rotation. That's a ton of ground balls so we need to see an upgrade defensively at short, but this might be enough to keep things interesting for a while in a weak NL Central without sacrificing any of the future.
   28. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6055831)
You have to wonder why the Dodgers wouldn't be in on a deal like this, with Scherzer leaving town and Kershaw a shadow of himself. A good pitcher in the middle of his career for this kind of contract? Teams that are trying to win should be all over that.
   29. Paul d mobile Posted: December 02, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6055848)
If Stroman, a 3WAR plus starting pitcher, is your number 3, you're in pretty good shape.
   30. . Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:13 PM (#6055851)
Can't say I'm surprised, but it appears as though news of the 2021 Giants being projected to do nothing and then winning 107 games on the field hasn't reached BTF HQ yet.
   31. Adam Starblind Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6055871)
Once that wasn't in the cards, I just wouldn't have wasted the money. As a Cubs (& Mets) fan, I don't care if they win 65 or 77 games.


You mustn't watch much baseball or attend many games. I always enjoy it a lot more when my team wins the game. It really affects my mood. A nearly 20% increase in wins is meaningful, if you are a baseball fan.
   32. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6055880)
I would have loved for the Angels to do this deal.
   33. Ron J Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:25 PM (#6055893)
#31 Thing is it doesn't seem to matter much at the team revenue level.

Now that's not the same as no impact. And my revenue models are old and have a ~$10M standard error in team revenue. So it's certainly possible that it matters more than I could capture with the available data.

However one thing that I am pretty confident of is that your biggest free agent signing has a one year revenue boost beyond their contribution to wins and losses. And that kind of squares up with what you said, so ...

Basically your biggest free agent signing functions as very effective advertising.
   34. McCoy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:26 PM (#6055895)
Re 31. You happen to know which games your team will win?
   35. McCoy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6055900)
Teams signing an elite FA tend to make many acquisitions and the fanbase can either have a reasonable expectation of quality or delude themselves into thinking that will happen. See the Rangers and ARod.
   36. McCoy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:34 PM (#6055901)
The Cubs nuking the 2016 core last year and then "landing" the Stroman contract ain't gonna mean a lot to ticket sales in terms of positive news.
   37. sunday silence (again) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:46 PM (#6055905)
people seem think that we can predict w/l record to incredible precision. It seems to me if you have something akin to a 500 team, that could very well translate into a team that is sniffing a wild card in July. And hopefully your team adds a few guns at the trade deadline and you just might make the playoffs. Projecting a team to 77 wins in Dec. is really not a guaranteed to not make the playoffs.
   38. Karl from NY Posted: December 02, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6055915)
As a Cubs (& Mets) fan, I don't care if they win 65 or 77 games.

77 means you're still in contention for most of September now that the bloated playoffs are going to include half the leagues. But yeah you're right that nothing below about 74 matters.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6055924)
#25 ... that is so far off base I suspect I'm wasting my time with even a brief response. For 2018-21, Stroman had the 40th most WAR. That's a guy whose UPSIDE is a good #3, who's more likely a below-average #3 or even a #4? That's despite voluntarily missing 2020 and missing 1/3 of 2018. In just over 1000 career IP, he's got 18 WAR, 9 WAA. (In just over 1000 IP, Ray has 15.4 WAR, 7 WAA. Pretty much identical over the last 4 years. Ray is just one year younger ... and got one year longer.) In that 4-year span, Hendricks was #27.
   40. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 04:20 PM (#6055926)
#37 ... in the case of the 2022 Cubs, we're talking about a projection closer to 65-70 wins. So 77 wins is the good luck season. Of course Jed may not agree with that initial projection so, especially with the likely move to 7 (or at least 6) playoff teams, you might get in with 84 wins.

In the AL last year, the 6th and 7th teams would have been the 91-win Jays (4 ALE teams) and the 90-win Ms. In the NL, the 83-win Reds and the 82-win Phils. In 2019, Cleveland (93), Boston (84), Mets (86), DBacks (85) ... 84-win Cubs just miss.
   41. sunday silence (again) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6055930)
Hi Walt. I guess that's a fair pt. BUt do we think the Cubs are done adding players?
   42. McCoy Posted: December 02, 2021 at 04:51 PM (#6055936)
For now? Yes
   43. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 02, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6055939)
To be clear, I don't believe that Stroman is Chatwood or Edwin Jackson. He is certainly better than that. But I don't think he even has the potential to be a difference maker. His upside is a good 3 starter...similar to Hendricks. He's more likely a mid-to-low 3 or terrific 4. For a team that is virtually directionless, why waste that kind of money?

In addition to Walt's point, Stroman is also currently #40 in Bill James's starting pitcher rankings, for whatever that's worth to you. (This would be suppressed to some extent by his skipping 2020.) At his existing performance level, he is a solid #2 by today's standards.
   44. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 05:28 PM (#6055944)
More generally, some musings on rotation slots, we'll just use 2018-21 numbers. With further reduction in innings, the WAR counts and the gaps are probably all gonna be smaller next time we look.

Clear elite: deGrom 25 WAR, Scherzer 22, Verlander 2018-19 14, probably Cole 20

Elite?: Wheeler and Nola on 18. Wheeler probably yes, Nola relies a lot on that big year where bWAR and fWAR were in big disagreement. Still both are actually closer to Cole than they are next guy down the list.

So let's call the "elite" level 18-25 over 3+ years ... but that's a huge range over 3 years.

From this point down, there are really no clear gaps and health plays an even bigger role. But given a 3+ year time spread, let's take relatively small WAR gaps to start with.

12-15 WAR (10 pitchers): Lynn, Morton, Bauer, Buehler, Minor, Castillo, Marquez, Ryu, Freeland, Bieber ... maybe Bauer, Buehler, Bieber are "elite" by talent but it's actually hard to make that case.

8-11 WAR (28 pitchers): Fading stars (Greinke, Kershaw, Sale); early career but no big breakout yet (Fried, ERod, Woodruff, Means, Berrios, Alcantara); some guys who might be one-hit wonders (Snell, Ray); missed-time might-have-beens (Strasburg, Taillon, Clevinger, Stroman, Darvish); unexciting good pitchers (Gray, Hendricks, Miley, Bassitt, etc.)

5-7 WAR (60 pitchers): Obviously at this point, age (service time) and health are key factors in estimating the quality of the pitcher -- i.e. some guys are in this range because they've pitched well but only made the majors recently; some pitched well but spent most of the time hurt; some are durable, average pitchers. Anyway, 5 WAR in 3+ seasons (say 500 IP) is about average so this is roughly the above-average crowd.

Outside the elite, salaries are all over the place. Age and service time play a big role obviously. There are a lot of Stroman-y sort of contracts here -- Ryu, Darvish, Ray, ERod -- but Bauer and Strasburg are paid like elite while Morton, Minor, Miley, Hendricks are serious bargains. Of course everybody is an injury away from being paid too much.

In the last group, I didn't notice any really big money-makers other than David Price (Bumgarner at 5/$85 seems the next biggest). There are at least a couple of impressive young guys here -- Burnes and Urias. There are a few relievers mixed in so it's not quite 60 starters. DeSclafini looks like a fairly typical vet guy of this type, he just got 3/$36.

We're at just over 100 pitchers, the mid-4th spot, and clearly after this you pretty much take what you can get. This gives us:

Elite: about 5 pitchers
3.5-5 WAR: about 10 pitchers, call these "true #1"
2.5-3.5 WAR: 1 per team on average, call these "true #2" (remember we're talking 150-180 IP these days)
1.5-2.5 WAR: 2 per team on average ... so an above-average starter at #3 and average at #4 if you've got a true #1

So a "classic" good staff is: one 4+, a true #2, above-average, average
and a "classic" not-so-good: one true #2, above-average, average, nearly average

The difference being 2.5+ WAR depending on whether you've got an elite or not.

Now obviously, this means only half the teams, on average, will have a "true #1" or better. From my poking around over the years, that's pretty much always been the case. Obviously we can endlessly quibble about where cut-offs should be but luckily those shook out pretty well in giving us groups of approximately 15, 30 and 60 pitchers which fits nicely with a 30-team league. A true #1 with no true #2 is about the same as no true #1 but two true #2s.

Stroman's past performance then is near the border between "true #2" and above-average but he's also almost certainly among the 60 best starters. While he's proably not on his way up, his "realistic upside" is around 3.5 WAR (the true #1/#2 border) and his realistic (un-injured) downside is around 2 WAR (in 180 IP) -- say the 75th-best.

   45. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 05:46 PM (#6055946)
Another way to look at it ... for pitchers with at least 50 starts for 2018-21 (so skipping rookies), there are only 58 pitchers who averaged at least 1 WAA per 150 IP. And two of those guys are retired and another is Price. Stroman is one of the 58 obviously and he's 38th by WAR, 31st by IP, 42nd by WAA.
   46. dejarouehg Posted: December 02, 2021 at 06:05 PM (#6055950)
31 - Have probably been to somewhere between 750&900; games but I appreciate your condescending comments.

I’d rather watch potential prospects grow than waste time watching the Carmine Fanzones of the world and to the other comment about 77 wins possibly being enough to get in the playoffs…. Is that what you’d really want to see? A crappy team in the playoffs?
No thanks!
   47. The Duke Posted: December 02, 2021 at 07:16 PM (#6055959)
The Miley and Stroman moves look a lot like “let’s hope they perform well and bring back prospects at the deadline”. Just keep doing Darvish deals until the system is full of players that will mature in 2025-6. In the meantime, we get good pitching for half a season or 1.5 seasons

The real question is why someone couldn’t make a better deal than this. There must be 10 GMs out there wondering how they missed out on this.

Where were the Angels, the Giants, for instance.
   48. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 07:27 PM (#6055963)

The Mariners won 90 games last season despite a Pythag of 76 wins. You'd never plan for that to happen but if you go into the season as a "75-80 win team" you can sometimes have things bounce your way and have an exciting year, maybe even win some playoff series. If you go in as a "60-65 win team" the chances of that happening are virtually nil.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2021 at 08:57 PM (#6056092)
Carmen Fanzone. Possibly the greatest trumpeter in MLB history. Pretty impressive minor-league record actually, career OBP in the minors of 411. Good walk rate and ISO in the majors as well, killed by a 245 BABIP.

The Miley and Stroman moves look a lot like “let’s hope they perform well and bring back prospects at the deadline”.

1. No team signs players for that reason. They occasionally take 1-year flyers on players (Scott Feldman for example) who they think have a chance of performing much better than that and IF THE TEAM IS NOT IN CONTENTION they will have the fall-back of trading them at the deadline. But mainly they sign that sort of pitcher because they need a few semi-reliable arms because the rules require the team to pitch 9 innings a game. "Hey boss, can I have $5 M in hopes of getting lucky and bringing back some team's #15 prospect at the deadline?" is not gonna impress your superiors.

2. Wade Miley doesn't fit the deinition of the sort of pitcher one signs under excuse #1. He's coming off 163 innings of a 141 ERA+ for crying out loud. Lord only knows what happened to the man but over 2018-21, he's got a 130 ERA+. Any team -- except apparently the Reds, DBacks, Pirates, Nats (??) and Marlins would be happy to pay that guy $10 M. But sure, if the Cubs are out of it in July, still quite likely, then he'll be traded away ... in the same way that pretty much any pending FA on a bad team is available at the deadline.

3. You certainly don't sign guys for 3/$71 with any intention whatsoever of trading them at the next deadline. First, you don't risk that kind of money on guys you don't want; second, any team could have had Stroman for that price (or a bit more) but (oddly) weren't interested ... why are they gonna be that much more interested in 4 months time to take on 2.5/$55? And before you respond "because that team finds itself in contention" remember that there will be other pitchers who are pending FAs that the team could probably acquire for substantially less than what it will take to get Stroman (certainly a lot less money). Now, there's a very good chance he'll be traded at the deadline in 2024, probably about the same chance he'll be traded in the 2023-24 offseason and a reasonably high chance he'll be traded at the deadline in 2023 ... but the deadline in 2022? Close to zero.

Are there any examples of players who were signed to multi-year contracts in an offseason who were traded at the next deadline?
   50. The Duke Posted: December 03, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6056093)
I think that’s what is starting happen now. In the last few years mediocre teams have signed “projects” in the hopes they could flip them at the deadline. Trevor rosenthal is a good example (twice )

It’s a no lose proposition. If he plays well, you get a half season of goodness and upside in the trade. If it doesn’t pan out it’s a one year commit and you weren’t likely going to compete anyhow

I think teams are now taking that model further. How do you explain Mark Melancon to the d-backs other than what i posit? Miley - he’ll definitely be dealt if he has any value. Stroman - this is the new model. Either this year at the trade deadline or in the offseason or at the deadline next year he will soar in value if he continues to deliver.

I agree it hasn’t happened with good players before but it might be now.


The question you rightly ask is why couldn’t Stroman do better or why didn’t he want to do better ? One possible answer is he wanted to get the deal done before shutdown. Another is the Trevor Bauer model of “I’m betting on myself”.

I look at my team the cardinals and they say they really want guys with two years left not one - they don’t like rentals. Maybe this is what the Cubs are trying to structure towards while they rebuild

I may not be right but I think it’s possible.

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