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Wednesday, October 19, 2022
CHANGE!! MAKE CHANGE!! His pride wouldn’t allow him to admit he made any mistakes, which made him an unsympathetic figure Tuesday but not necessarily irredeemable. More important is whether he’s admitted to himself that something has to change, that he isn’t just getting unlucky every October, that there’s a reason the only championship he’s won came in a pandemic-shortened season in which the playoffs were most like the regular season.
jimfurtado
Posted: October 19, 2022 at 07:24 AM | 62 comment(s)
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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 19, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6101587)but a 60-game season with expanded playoffs in front of no fans - that's not clearly a "slight difference in data."
Roberts already announced in March that the Dodgers won the World Series this year - oops.
so what does he do for an encore? and what will make the Dodgers players feel any more optimistic come next October?
More important is whether he’s admitted to himself that something has to change, that he isn’t just getting unlucky every October, that there’s a reason the only championship he’s won came in a pandemic-shortened season in which the playoffs were most like the regular season.
The 2020 playoffs weren't any more or less like the regular season than other years, I don't think. It was still a best of 5 NLDS and a best of 7 NLCS/WS.
The odd thing about that is the 2020 playoffs were the ones least favorable to the top seeds*. Everyone had to win four series to win the title, so no byes like every year since 2012 (and before that took no more than three anyway). Neutral site games after the first round eliminated HFA. And yet, that was the year the two top seeds met in the series, and the best team won.
* Because of the nature of the schedule that year, you can't really determine who the best regular season teams were. However, that the best records were held by teams that have been consistently at the top of the standings in their respective leagues around 2020 gives us some confidence these two teams were legitimately the best two that year.
I'm not gonna click through but if anybody did ... does the writer offer any suggestions as to what those reasons might be?
Human beings are simply very uncomfortable with the idea of crapshoots, wherein effect doesn't follow cause and fate is random if not whimsical. This phenomenon holds double in musings upon organized sport. It takes a certain sophistication to transcend that evolved state.
Jeepers -- Andrew Heaney, 14 GS, 73 IP, 13.6/2.4 K/BB ... 14 HRs not good but that was a guy with a career 93 ERA+.
The comments after the article suggested it may have been Friedman's post-game conference in which he came across so badly that the writer assigns blame to him. Perhpas.
To suggest the Dodgers have gagged in the postseason in the past 5 to 7 years is to shows the writer lacks understanding of ML baseball. 5 NLCS appearances, 3 pennants and one WS trophy since 2016 ain't bad in 7 tries, even given their fine records. Yes, they suffered much more post-season trauma from 1989 to 2015, but I don't see that as the writer's scope here.
Yep, the way I felt seeing the headline and the excerpt. The only thing the Dodgers need to do, is continue doing what they are doing, it's not really that difficult of a solution to a non-existent problem.
You really need your best pitchers to show up and steal a few games during a post-season run. Look at what Nola and Wheeler are doing. Has Kershaw ever done that ?
I remember watching the Cardinals torch him and Matt Adams blasted a huge soul-crushing HR off him. All I could think of was, Kershaw shouldn't be giving up HRs to mediocre left-handers.
He hasn't shown he has what it takes to put a team on his back and carry them to victory.
LET'S RAG ON EVERYONE WHO HAS PLAYED POORLY IN SMALL SAMPLES!!!
at least Kershaw out-pitched that bum Maddux in the post-season. Wow, 11-14. Who ever called him a great pitcher?
Bellinger's been a black hole for 2 years. Muncy batted under .200 this year. Justin Turner had an okay season, but he's 37 and seems to start slower and slower every year.
Once again, Friedman turned to the team’s 111-win regular season for cover. Never mind that hitting in the regular season isn’t anything like hitting in the postseason, especially now with how many teams are tanking.
Friedman should have acquired players who can hit in the playoffs.
Despite none of the Dodgers’ starters pitching into the sixth inning in the NLDS, Friedman rejected the notion he should have acquired another pitcher at the trade deadline.
Friedman should have acquired another ace starter.
Second point could have some merit I guess. Don't know/recall if there were opportunities that Friedman did not pursue.
Kershaw's post-season ERA is also a full run higher than Maddux. Kershaw has been bad in the post-season, that's not debatable.
Accepting that alternate history is sketchy at best, I don't see it. I world have though it true, but looking at individual games, it's not clear he cost them anything. In most of his worst starts, the Dodgers scored very few runs.
In the 2009 NLCS, which the Dodgers lost 4-1, he lost game one 8-6. That's on him and that game was winnable. In the next 4 games, the Dodgers scored 10 runs and lost 3 of 4. he gave up 2 runs in relief in game 5, but the dodgers lost 10-4.
In the 2013 NLCS, which the Dodgers lost 4-2, his 2 starts were 1-0 and 9-0.
In the 2014 NLDS, which the Dodgers lost 3-1, his one start was a 10-9 loss, so that's on him, but they still would have had to win game 5, then the LCS, then the WS. Hard to blame the loss of a championship on game one of the playoffs.
In the 2017 WS, he won game one 3-1. He allows 6 runs in 5 innings in game 5. The Dodgers lost 13-12 in 10. Had he pitched better they could have won in regulation. he was great in 4 innings of relief in game 7, 4 innings, 0 runs. but they lost 5-1. So, mixed bag. 2 great outings, one lousy one.
2018 WS he pitched lousy in 2 starts. BOS won the series 4-1. but, in his 2 starts, the Dodgers scored only 5 runs. If he were his normal self, maybe they win game 1, which they lost 8-4. But he would have needed a shutout to win game 5, and that still get them only up 3-2.
2019 NLDS, he was OK in 1 start (6 IP, 3 ER) in a game they lost 4-2. In game 5 he gave up 2 runs in relief to cough up the lead, but then a teammate gave up 4 and they lost 7-3.
2022 NLDS he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in a game they lost 5-3.
Every other series, with he pitched very well, or the dodgers won regardless of how he pitched.
(*) But not terribly tough within reasonable tolerances.
Don't you have that exactly opposite? There's a huge baseball reason; the top two teams in each league double their odds of winning the pennant and World Series Moving from 1/8 and 1/16 to 1/4 and 1/8 is huge. And that ignores the fact that 95+ win teams have better than 50:50 dds in each series.
There's probably no financial reason to do it.
(I agree there's no financial reason, which is why I said that I doubt any team's P & L works that way.)
No really, reducing the number of rounds you have to win is going to double your odds, even if your per game odds aren't higher. What evidence is there that five games off hurts a team? It should help them. Fully rested pen and rotation lineup up are huge advantages.
Maybe. It is possible the Dodgers are coming to the end of their dominance or at least will need to rebuild quickly to maintain it.
T Turner FA; J Turner in decline but a cheap 1/$16 option; Muncy 1/$13 then FA; Bellinger fiasco; Kershaw FA; Urias 1 year then FA; Buehler hurt; even Tyler Anderson is FA.
The core of Betts, Freeman, Smith, Lux and a hopefully healthy Buehler is still excellent of course, should still be excellent for the next 3-4 years and of course a bottomless pit of money to spend so no need to feel sorry for them. But they have a lot of things to get right and will have a tougher time navigating another Bauer-type mistake. There are a bunch of SS available again but I'm not sure what's out there on the SP side.
On playoff odds ... the underlying issue is that baseball is always a pretty random sport. Especially in the playoffs, you just don't see mismatches very often. Dodgers-Padres is probably about as extreme as it can possibly get -- even a simple guesstimate only gets the Dodgers to about a 64% chance of winning each game which gets them only to about a 75% chance of winning a 5-game series. Now 75% is good but you're still gonna lose 25% of the time so it's hardly a sure thing. And even if you're so dominant that the first series is 75% and the next is 70% and the third is still 65%, you win the WS just 34% of the time.
Some background ... if a team has a 55% chance of winning each game, their chance of winning at least 3 of 5 is 59.3% ... make it best of 7 and it only goes up to 60.8%. Push it out to a 45-game series and their chances hit 75%. It's simply the nature of the sport.
Obviously the odds change from game to game, mainly based on SPs, so actual numbers would come out a bit different. But y'know, even 1968 Bob Gibson lost G7.
until 1968---none (and don't bring up 1960 because Andy will explain how the Yankees dominance was an illusion in a weak American league)
1969 Orioles-Mets--the 1969 Os were one of the best regular season teams I ever saw
1973 NLCS Mets Reds a stunningly mediocre Mets team
1979 Orioles Pirates the Os choked this one away very badly
1985 Royals Cards--#### Bill James
1987 Cards Minn reversible air-conditioning
1990 A's Reds
1993 NLCS Braves Phillies--this is one of the most forgotten MONUMENTAL upsets in MLB history
1996 Braves Yanks--#### Jim Leyritz
1998 NLCS Braves Pads I'm sensing a Braves pattern here
2006 Tigers Cards it is impossible to put into words how mediocre that Cards team was
a 4-game losing streak to end July left them at 55-44 and 6 1/2 games back of the Cubs.
they were 10 games back on Aug. 13 at 62-51.
Mets then closed on a 38-11 "heater" to win the division by 8 games and then swept Henry Aaron's Braves 3-0 in the first NLCS.
those Orioles teams of that era were great, but they ran into an absolute steamroller.
any team winning 80 percent of its games in a 50+ game stretch heading into a WS and then winning in 5 games?
a 45-12 finish including the playoffs, that wasn't no fluke. it must be among the most dominating stretch runs to a WS title in all of baseball history.
1973 Mets? have at it.
1993 NLCS Braves Phillies--this is one of the most forgotten MONUMENTAL upsets in MLB history
yeah, but the pennant race down-to-last-day took a lot out of the Braves
1998 NLCS Braves Pads - may as well include 98 Astros-Padres too. Houston won 102 games and added Randy Johnson; they were essentially a 108-ish-win team.
As a Patriots fans, it sounds crazy now, but there was a period in the early 2010s where Belichick and Brady were starting to see their legacy diminished by the lack of Super Bowl appearances and success after the early rush of 3 SBs in 4 years. Then, they won 3 more in 5 years, and that ended the whole "GOAT" thing for their respective careers.
A friend of mine who is a lifelong Braves fan tells me that if the team had been able to pull off even a second WS title in the back end of that streak, it would have tied together the 15 years of success in an exponentially better way for the legacy of that franchise - sort of the way the Patriots being able to bookend a decade of regular-season success with two sets of three Super Bowls did so for New England.
Is that where we are at with this Dodgers run? Basically, they need to win one more before this group disbands to cement their legacy a generation from now?
As Howie was implying, anyone who thinks that the 1969 World Series was an historic upset must not have been following the Mets over the last few months of the season, and must not be accounting for the then-still strong imbalance between the NL and the AL. The "miracle" was the way the Mets came out of nowhere beginning in late May / early June after seven years of being a laughing stock. It wasn't a "miracle" that the team that steamrolled the NL in those final months could beat the Orioles.
the most INEXCUSABLE series losses in my memory:
until 1968---none
Er, try looking up 1906, the World Series between the Hitless Wonders White Sox and the 116-36 Cubs, which was historically far and away the greatest World Series upset ever.
-------------
Should add the 88 Dodgers to the list. They were not as good a team as the 1990 Reds.
I'd also add the 88 NLCS to the list of "shocking" upsets.
The Orioles won it in 66, 70, and 83. I guess it’s just a matter of counting it as the same team or not. 1966 was before Weaver took over as manager. There’s a lot of overlap between the 66 and 70 teams. The Robinsons, Blair, Boog, Davey Johnson, McNally, and Palmer. As you might expect just 4 years apart.
There’s a full generation between the MVPs of 66 and 83, Cal Ripken is 25 years younger than Frank Robinson. But what do you expect given a 17 year gap in time? I see the differences between the 66 and 83 Orioles as exactly like the differences between the 2001 and 18 Patriots. In each case, 17 year span and only one player in common (Palmer, Brady).
I’m going with calling it the same dynasty because they were contending the whole way through. Only one losing season in there, 1967, but even that was a fluke, they outscored their opponents by 60 runs.
There’s a full generation between the MVPs of 66 and 83, Cal Ripken is 25 years younger than Frank Robinson. But what do you expect given a 17 year gap in time? I see the differences between the 66 and 83 Orioles as exactly like the differences between the 2001 and 18 Patriots. In each case, 17 year span and only one player in common (Palmer, Brady).
I’m going with calling it the same dynasty because they were contending the whole way through. Only one losing season in there, 1967, but even that was a fluke, they outscored their opponents by 60 runs.
If you're only counting the regular season for "dynasties", between 1960 and 1985 the Orioles had the best record in all of MLB, although by 1985 the O's were already in the second year of a 5 year stretch where they went from 98 to 54 wins.
1969 89 wins
1970 102 wins, lost the WS
1971 79 wins (odd)
1972 95 wins, lost the WS
1973 99 wins, lost the NLCS
1974 98 wins, didn't even win the division
1975-76 210 wins, 2 WS ... obviously what distinguishes them
1977 88 wins
1978 92 wins
1979 90 wins, lost NLCS
1980 89 wins
In today's game, they probably make the playoffs every year except 71. Give them an extra round of playoffs, do they still win in both 75 and 76 or do they "disappoint" with just one WS win? They probably don't get 4 pennants in 7 years either.
Obviously his **** doesn't work in the playoffs.
I agree the Mets down the stretch were playing incredibly well but the Orioles were also a juggernaut for a long time.
It's a stoopid argument to say they won in five. They won in five because the Mets got a lot of weird breaks go their way. Its no wonder they won in five. The shoe polish test was really a stoopid call because no one could really see what happened but they changed the call anyhow. The lack of runner interference was a bad call, albeit it's happened before. Didn't someone throw the ball away in game 5 to let the winning run in?
I dont want to put the Met down. They won it all and they were a deserving team. But that series should have gone the distance and it was incredibly disappointing that it didnt come down to game 7 and some PH or something. But its stopid to say they won in 5 and that makes them a better team. They really weren't a demonstrably better team.
Teams w/ 15+-game advantages in best-of-7s have gone 9-3. The exceptions are:
2021 Dodgers, +17.5 losers to Atlanta
2001 Mariners, +20 losers to NYY
1906 Cubbies, +22.5 losers to Hitless Wonders
It really wasn't odd. They did not yet have Joe Morgan who was a big part of the heart of the mid 70s team and they lost Tolan to the off season basketball injury and they had to put Geo. Foster out there. But also the 1970 team was fueled by Wayne Simpson who won his first 15; almost 16; games as pitcher until his rotator went. And also I think Jim Merrit's arm was fcked by the end of the season as well. So their pitching had already crested before 1970 world series and it would have to be rebuilt.
Hmm... Maybe the Dodgers should see if Gaston is interested in doing another tour as a manager. Of course, he will be 79 by the time the season starts so maybe not.
Bobby Cox had 3 HOF'ers for most of that time.
Of course they weren't, but in a 7 game Series the team whose starting pitchers can perform like the Mets pitchers did for most of the season is always going to have a reasonable shot at winning over any opponent. Over the course of a long season the Orioles more balanced strengths would've likely prevailed, but there would've been stretches in the course of that season where you'd swear the Mets were the better team. In this case one of those stretches just happened to be in the World Series.
Remember, though, that game 2 was won on a 3 single rally with 2 outs in the ninth inning that broke a tie. Game 4 was won on that missed interference call (though it's likely the Mets would've won anyway), and game 5 turned on that shoe polish play. The fact that the Series only went 5 games tells us very little about the relative strength of those two teams, even though the Mets deserved to win.
Yes, and they usually had a solid 4th starter, and occasionally a 5th. Spending resources on Denny Neagle when you have Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz might have been foolish.
if someone could very accurately predict injuries the someone would be a zillionaire. and stuff like 5% probability catches get made. WHO could have prdicted christian javier (WHO???) not even a regular rotation starter, no hitting the yankees at the time they looked like they gonna be winning 130 games.
who would predict jose altuve to be zero for playoffs so far - not even an RBI groundout.
ol dylan is not usually this dumbass
The best active pitching careers are those of Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer
Match them with these corresponding W-L pcts in post-season play:
.500 , .400 , .577 , .520
I'm assuming you are asking because Kershaw is .520 or .577. But I think the Dodgers actually won't most of his no decisions anyway.
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