Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, March 26, 2021

Correa discusses latest contract offer

After rejecting a contract offer reportedly worth $120 million over six years that he received a couple of weeks ago, Astros shortstop Carlos Correa said on Thursday that he doesn’t think he will reach an extension with the club and is preparing to hit free agency when the regular season ends.

Correa said earlier this year that he would need to sign an extension by April 1—the start of the regular season—or he would become a free agent for the first time. Correa said on Thursday that there have been no negotiations with the Astros since the offer, which he categorized as “really low.” The offer was reported by MLB Network insider Jon Heyman on Wednesday.

“I’m preparing like I’m going to be a free agent this year,” said Correa, who avoided arbitration by signing an $11.7 million deal this offseason.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 11:21 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, carlos correa

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Astroenteritis Posted: March 26, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6010241)
There's never been a moment when it looked like Correa would be an Astro after 2021. Now it's just a question of which team makes the best offer after the season.
   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2021 at 12:38 PM (#6010258)
the offer, which he categorized as “really low.”
Um, Carlos? You've played more than 110 games in a season exactly once in your career, and that was five years ago.* You've had a sub-100 OPS+ in two of the last three seasons.


*Yes, he did play 58/60 in 2020.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6010273)
Um, Carlos? You've played more than 110 games in a season exactly once in your career, and that was five years ago.* You've had a sub-100 OPS+ in two of the last three seasons.

*Yes, he did play 58/60 in 2020.


Yeah, he's averaged 3 WAR over the last 3 seasons (pro-rating 2020), he shouldn't be surprised they want to pay him like a 3-win player.
   4. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: March 26, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6010275)
Yeah, he's averaged 3 WAR over the last 3 seasons (pro-rating 2020), he shouldn't be surprised they want to pay him like a 3-win player.


The counterpoint to that is that he's been a 5 WAR player on a 162 game basis over those three years and he's near 7 if you include his whole career. ElRoy's issue is the bigger one, he's not on the field reliably but he's a star caliber player.

Having said that I'd jump at that deal if I was him. I think he can probably do better on the open market (and unless he goes in the tank this year he won't do worse) but with the CBA uncertainty and COVID I'd be grabbing found money when I could find it. 6/120 is a very similar deal to Bogaerts (7/140 with an opt out) and while Correa is probably better on a rate basis than Xander, Xander is probably as much of a lock as any player in the game. He's very good and consistent which has value that Correa doesn't have.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6010285)
The counterpoint to that is that he's been a 5 WAR player on a 162 game basis over those three years and he's near 7 if you include his whole caree

Right, but no team is going to believe they're getting anything close to 162 games a year. If you can't stay healthy from age 22-25, the odds of it ever happening aren't good.

If he'll take a shorter deal, I could see someone giving him a higher AAV.
   6. JRVJ Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:56 PM (#6010289)
As I mentioned in the Lance McCullers thread, I don't know that Correa is worth as much as he thinks he's worth, especially with the SS class that looks to be coming to market next year.

Having said that, if Lindor, Seager and Story sign, then Correa may be the one that drives the market. But as I see it, he's the fourth best SS in the class.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:21 PM (#6010332)
It's hard to rank Story -- he's certainly good outside of Coors but he looks like an average hitter. As to Seager -- he's 5 WAR per 650 with 2300 PA; Correa is 6.7 WAR/650 with 2500 PA. Seager was healthier in 2019 and the bat has been more consistent but he's (apparently) a worse defender and a year older (not a big deal at these ages). Anyway, 1.6 WAR/650 is a lot of ground for Seager to make up although Correa has been at just 5.2 WAR/650 for the last 3 years so maybe they're equal. I really like Lindor but his main advantage here has been durability -- he's at 5.4 WAR/650 but a relatively whopping 3500 PA.

Past lack of durability is a pretty good indicator of future lack of durability ... past durability is one knee injury or plantar fascitis diagnosis away from future lack of durability or one shoulder injury away from a move to 2B. Still, what ya gotta do, all else equal, ya gotta take the durable guy.

Anyway, I'd rank them Lindor, Correa, Seager, Story myself but, based on the last 3 seasons only, Correa-Seager is a coin toss.

I don't know what Correa is looking for but 6/$120 is low IMO. The covid market for good players has looked a lot like the pre-covid market so far and he just saw the Astros give 5/$85 to a solid but unspectacular SP who can't stay on the field either. It's not neecessarily a bad starting point though so Correa may be overly dismissive here.

Might be a good spot for a Heyward-style contract, something like 3/$75 plus a player option for 3/$60. He'd be turning 30 when the option came so certainly still possible to get a long-term big deal if he deserves it or at least upgrade that into 5/$100. Worst-case for the Astros would be on the hook for $135 instead of $120 which is not that big of a difference.

But just the other day I said the current environment is not really conducive to haggling over 10% so maybe 6/$120 is reasonable enough. (That also depends in part on whether that 6 is 2021-6 or 2022-7. The first one is a 5/$108 extension which is a bit better,)

Anyway, it's interesting how spooked we get about durability -- probably justifiably spooked. If Correa had 3100 PA and 30-32 WAR, I'd be putting him at $30-35 per year for 8-10 years ... he's really cost himself these last few seasons.
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:32 PM (#6010334)
a relatively whopping 3500 PA.
That number does whop in comparison.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:44 PM (#6010337)
Correa is 6.7 WAR/650 with 2500 PA.

How is that the right metric when he's only once put up more than 481 PA? You have to expect you're getting 450 PA p.a from Correa, and 200 PA from a terrible backup.
   10. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2021 at 07:28 PM (#6010340)
#9 I remember looking at this many years ago for Barry Larkin -- who also had issues staying on the field.

As I recall his backups could be sensibly compared to Manny Alexander. Not a train wreck but not good.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6010355)
It's hard to rank Story -- he's certainly good outside of Coors but he looks like an average hitter.


Story's OPS+ the past three years have been 127, 121 and 121. That's not an average hitter.
   12. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 26, 2021 at 10:21 PM (#6010361)
*Yes, he did play 58/60 in 2020.

The earliest he's gone on the IL is after the team's 54th game

also, Manny Alexander, -2.3 WAR over 11 years is what one expects from a replacement player.
   13. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6010365)
#12 Yeah. I thought it would be useful to put a name to what you get on those days when Larking wasn't available. Replacement level doesn't resonate with everybody. Manny Alexander does.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2021 at 12:47 AM (#6010374)
How is that the right metric when he's only once put up more than 481 PA?

1. When you're comparing him with Corey Seager who produces at a much lower rate in even fewer PA. (The difference in PAs is mainly their rookie years.)

2. 2/3 of 6.7 WAR is still 4.4 WAR which, even if the replacemet is replacement level, gives you one of the best SS in the league. 2/3 of 5.1 is 3.4 shich is still not too shabby.

For example, in 2015, Correa was held in the minors, got 432 PA ... and the Astros had, by far, the best SS in the AL. Correa had a full year in 2016 and the Astros got 4.8 WAA vs Cle's 2nd-best 2.7 WAA. In 2017, Correa had 476 PA and Houston had the best SS in the AL. Hou did fall to 6th in 2018 but still were 2 wins above average. In 2019, Correa had just 321 PA and Hou finished 2nd at 5.1 WAA (helped massively by Bregman being his replacement at SS but they still finished 2nd at 3B). In 2020 they were only 3rd ... half a win better than Cle with Correa and Lindor taking almost all of the PA.

In the Correa era, the Astros have gotten 22 WAA out of SS with about 17 of that being credited to Correa. In the 3 shortened seasons of concern (2017-19), Correa has still generated 8.5 WAA plus nearly 1 WAA in 2020. Over those 3 specific seasons, Lindor did create nearly 12 WAA but Story the same 8.5 and Seager just 5 WAA.

So sure, like Larkin -- he produced 42.5 WAA, who gives a #### that you had to cover for him 30-40 games a year. His 1989 is an intersting year -- he played half of it and put up 2.7 WAA ... his replacements gave it all back in just half a season which means they played at about a -3.5 WAR pace. In 1993 he missed a bit over 1/3 of the season. He put up 2.5 WAA and the Reds gave back 1.5 of it in the other 1/3, about a -2.5 WAR pace. He had just 276 PA in 1997 but put up 2.6 WAA. The others gave back 2.1 of that, about a -2 WAR pace. So yes, regardless of how durable your starting SS is you might want to have a backup that belongs in the major leagues.
   15. Jack Sommers Posted: March 27, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6010389)
I was researching his injury history just now

2014: Fractured Fibula in Minors in June, missed 80 games
2016: Missed 4 games in September with minor shoulder injury
2017: Tore thumb ligament, missed 6 weeks, 43 games
2018: Back injury, missed 6 weeks, 37 games
2019: Rib fracture due to massage at home Missed 2 months, 50 games
2019: Back injury late August, missed 1 month, 25 games

The back injury twice now has to be the most concerning, as those tend to recur and sap both power and mobility.

Something else of note:

The is a huge gap in his WAR totals between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, due primarily to differences on fielding runs. BR +41, FG -15, for a whopping 56 runs difference. (total RAR BR 258, FG 192)

FG Career 19.4, 2018-2020- 5.7
BR Career 26.2, 2018-2020- 8.0

Avg Career 22.8, 2018-2020 6.9

I tend to just split the difference when spitballing value, but not all agree with that. Statcast fielding metrics Runs Prevented and Outs Above Average actually give a twinge of support to averaging the two WAR

2016-2017: RP -15, OAA -20
2018-2020: RP +22, OAA +29
Career TTL: RP +7, OAA +10


Heading over to statcast batting, which probably has metrics that are much closer to what Houston is looking at than these WAR metrics is revealing.

In the midst of a back injury marred season his Solid Contact and Barrel percentages in 2018 were the lowest of his career, leading to a paltry .306 xwOBA.

His contact quality jumped back in 2019, with the highest Solid/Barrel percentages in his career, accompanied by career lowest GB%. But that was all pre late season back injury

In 2020 his Solid/Barrel % cratered back down similar to 2018, while his GB% jumped way high again, leading to another very low .314 xwOBA

So 2 of his last 3 seasons produced the worst results in terms of quality of contact and xwOBA, and I suspect it's related to his back. This trend + injury history leads me to be a hard pass on Carlos Correa for anything above what Houston offered, and even that may not turn out to be a good deal. At the end of the day SOME team is going to pony up more than Houston's offer, and end up regretting it.
   16. Ron J Posted: March 27, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6010391)
#14 The problem is that a backup SS that belongs in the majors is going to be a useful trading chip. A trend you could see right from the start of Larkin's career -- Stillwell.

The Astros were in a position to effectively back up Correa with a first baseman but not every team has a third baseman you can shift to short and a first baseman who can handle third.

I think most teams are going to be caught with Manny Alexander (using whatever pseudonym he's under at the moment) because they're going to hope that this is the year you don't need your backup much. Sometimes you have somebody that you haven't got a good enough price for, but in the main really good backups (by the standards of backups) are tough to justify.
   17. JRVJ Posted: March 27, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#6010418)
15, exactly.

It's clear that Lindor is the class of SS coming to market in 2021-2022.

From there on, YMMV can vary on Seager, Story and Correa, but what is absolutely clear is that none of those three are a crystal clear 2 in the class.

Add to that the injury issues that have plagued Correa, and he really is risking a lot by not taking the Astros' offer, since he could easily end up behind Seager and Story at the end of the year (I doubt that Correa will end up behind Baez, unless Baez has a monster year and Correa suffers a terrible injury). But hey, it's Correa's choice to make (I tend to doubt that it'll work out for him, at least in regards to an offer already on the table for 6 Million and $120MM, but he's a grown man and he can make his own decisions).
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 27, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6010421)

1. When you're comparing him with Corey Seager who produces at a much lower rate in even fewer PA. (The difference in PAs is mainly their rookie years.)


Yeah, I don't buy that's he's better than Seager. Career OPS+: Seager 129, Correa 126, last three seasons: 122 to 110. UZR/150 career: Seager +2.9, Correa -4.4. Zips proj. Seager 127 wRC+, 4.6 WAR, Correa 125, 4.0. Steamer proj. Seager 134, 5.3, Correa 116, 3.9.

You have to believe DRS completely to prefer Correa, and ignore the fact that Seager had one big injury that accounted for all his missed time, while Correa is constantly hurt.

   19. Jack Sommers Posted: March 27, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6010426)
I've been in the Seager > Correa camp for a while now. He's a better hitter at this point in their careers, in my view.

Actually if given a choice today which SS to sign long term, I'd probably even take Seager over Lindor. I figure I can get him cheaper, and he'll end up as good or better as the gap in fielding runs continues to decrease.

I'd bet Seager's bat plays better over the next 5 years

   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 27, 2021 at 03:55 PM (#6010429)
Actually if given a choice today which SS to sign long term, I'd probably even take Seager over Lindor. I

I wouldn't got that far. Seager probably has the better bat, but I think Lindor is a much better defensive SS.
   21. puck Posted: March 28, 2021 at 12:17 PM (#6010483)
Story has been durable. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogGold Glove Award finalists unveiled
(4 - 4:02pm, Oct 28)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogNative American group blasts MLB commissioner Rob Manfred over 'tomahawk chop' comments
(21 - 4:02pm, Oct 28)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-28-2021
(4 - 3:56pm, Oct 28)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogWith World Series in full swing, PETA asks baseball world to remove 'bullpen' from vocabulary
(16 - 3:53pm, Oct 28)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogCleveland Guardians roller derby team sues baseball club over name change
(43 - 3:53pm, Oct 28)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogDodgers Albert Pujols Hits the COVID-19 Injured List
(248 - 3:51pm, Oct 28)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

NewsblogNBA 2021-2022 Season Thread
(395 - 3:37pm, Oct 28)
Last: Mike A

Newsblog2021 World Series OMNICHATTER!
(140 - 3:25pm, Oct 28)
Last: Tony S

NewsblogHALL OF FAME’S EARLY BASEBALL ERA COMMITTEE AND GOLDEN DAYS ERA COMMITTEE TO MEET THIS WINTER
(6 - 3:05pm, Oct 28)
Last: Dennis Eclairskey, closer

NewsblogTV Ratings: World Series Opens Higher for Fox
(36 - 1:53pm, Oct 28)
Last: VCar

NewsblogWatch every LIDOM game on MLB.TV
(8 - 1:52pm, Oct 28)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogMLB Just Tried a Bunch of Experimental Rules in the Minors. How Well Did They Work?
(96 - 11:32am, Oct 28)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Sox TherapyMeet the 2022 Red Sox
(15 - 11:28am, Oct 28)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

NewsblogBrewers GM Matt Arnold latest to say no thanks to Steve Cohen, Mets as front-office search continues to flail
(27 - 11:27am, Oct 28)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogThe Official Mets Fan Self-Immolation Thread
(977 - 10:38am, Oct 28)
Last: Adam Starblind

Page rendered in 0.2586 seconds
48 querie(s) executed