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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, October 24, 2022Could Betts move to 2B if LA signs Judge?
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 24, 2022 at 05:57 PM | 34 comment(s)
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1. JJ1986 Posted: October 24, 2022 at 06:13 PM (#6102427)Despite the hot start, Gallo hit almost as poorly in LA as he did in NY.
Well, I'm assuming that if they sign Judge, they don't sign Trea Turner, and Taylor is playing SS.
Bellinger will be non-tendered but that doesn't mean he won't be back. There's just not much available in CF these days, hasn't been for a while, I think they'll keep Bellinger just at about half of what they'd pay if they tendered him. I assume he'll play much less often if Judge and Mookie are around but his defense is still fine, maybe the shoulder will get better (if that's the problem) or some of Freddie's technique will rub off on him.
By the way, over at MLB.com, the Dodgers have a whopping 7 guys in the top 100, including a 2B/OF and a 3B/OF. One's a C so maybe Will Smith to 3B isn't out of the question. It must be so tough balancing all that talent with all that money.
I'm not sure why you'd assume any of that. As noted, they've got a lot of money coming off the books this year plus the Bauer money no later than 2024. Even if Turner goes and they decide Correa's also too expensive, they can get Xander or Swanson or swing a trade for pending FA Amed Rosario (Cle likes doing those deals) or trade for Rojas if they're that desperate.
But even if stuck, Taylor had 0 starts at SS this year and only 15 last year. I thought Lux had some starts there this year but nope, Turner made 160 ... but Lux had 50 starts there last year. If they're gonna fill it in-house, I'm pretty sure Lux will get the first call. I'd say it's very unlikely the Dodgers will make Taylor the primary SS next year by choice.
A-Rod's was decades ago - one that sets a new bar for the majors.
An interesting aspect of that deal is that it was so far in front that I don't think anybody topped it until ARod 7 years later. I'd imagine MLB will be putting pressure on teams not to do an ARod with Judge ... at least not a big AAV record ... if for no other reason than they know Ohtani might well blow Judge out of the water next year. MLB would probably prefer something crazy like 12/$450 for Judge than 8/$340.
Yes. Lineup depth doomed the Yankees. They were playing these post-season games with 3 or 4 guys who don't belong in the lineup for a playoff team starting: Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa, Hicks, Trevino, Carpenter
Don't think I've heard that one before -- are there studies? And I'd assume that the Utley rule has taken care of most of that risk.
Obvious counter-examples (which prove nothing but start somewhere): Morgan 5-7, Altuve 4-11 (OK 5-6), Collins 5-9, Durham 5-8. (Durham not so obvious but he's top 20 in 2B games, more than Grich.) 5-11 is a very popular height for top 2B.
Not aware that anybody else has published a study. I expect Szym has looked at it. At the reason he didn't publish any kind of article if he did look at aging/position patterns is that an article that says in essence, "I looked at this and found nothing of interest" isn't really compelling.
Of course the irony is Mookie has a great arm and it's wasted at 2B. It's probably too late now for him to learn it, but I reckon he would've been a great SS.
I seem to remember a lot of people, Walt included, looking at that and figuring out it was a bit biased to long careers or something like that, and ignoring defensive shifts of players like Pete Rose to other positions. I think ultimately the consensus was that there wasn't really much evidence to support that any position has a substantially shorter career other than catcher, and a big part of that even is based upon games played per year, not seasons as a starter.
I know I was one that pushed that there were career gaps, cf, catcher, second and third have shorter careers (and first also) but I've come around and it's not nearly as cut and dried as I thought. And I also think modern usage has changed a bit on some of that data also. Meaning that teams are making a more concentrated effort to maximize the playing time and careers of players (or agents or the player themselves)
2. It has nothing to do with his performance in the LCS.
The weird thing is that he didn't always. It was one of the reasons he was fairly quickly moved over from SS to 2B. Then he moved to the outfield and somehow managed to greatly improve his arm--pretty impressive.
I'm sure you've heard the idea that 2B tend to not have long careers, and though the data seems a bit shaky on that overall. My thought was that perhaps it's the smaller ones who tend not to last as long, but I'll admit it's not something I've delved deeply into. Your list includes some awesomely fun players, but it is four guys over a 100 year period. And even though Altuve is 3'5", he's only lasted to age 32 to far so the jury is still out. Another point against my idea would be that Mookie is a freak of an athlete, which is not always the case with runty little 2b types.
All that aside, he's a great OF and it seems kind of nuts to move him to another position.
They got the first part down, anyway.
I saw Mookie play shortstop for Short Season Lowell in 2012 and I can't overstate how bad he was. He had about 4 or 5 chances and I don't think a single throw reached first on the fly and he got charged with a couple of errors.
Yes, I know that 4 2B 5-9 or shorter in 100 years is not a lot ... but what proportion of players anywhere have been 5-9 or shorter? And presumably guys that small aren't usually fearsome hitters, don't usually hit for a lot of power ... so when they get to 30 and the legs and bat slow a little, can they still hit well enough to hold a job? That's not, per se, poor aging due to height, it's poor aging due to being a marginal bat who's finally fallen off, no different than a 6-3 LF who can't put up a 100 OPS+ anymore.
Part of the theory around 2B not aging well still seems correct -- as they age, they can't field well enough to move up the defensive spectrum (or they would have been SS to begin with) and very few can hit well enough to move down the spectrum. Perhaps even worse, if they can't top a 85-90 OPS+ and can't handle SS, they don't even have much value as a bench player. The below league-average starting 2B might be the most marginal player in the game.
But, regardless of what the aging profile of 2B actually is, I was curious whether anybody's looked at whether it's worse for small 2B ... or moreso than (relatively) small players at other positions. I have seen claims that "big" 3B don't age well, it was brought up for Bryant ... I don't know if that one was really true either but, sure enough, Bryant's been in the OF most of the last few seasons.
On the positional question, it was long believed that 3B didn't age well. In part, that was probably due to the fact that, for whatever reasons, there were no truly great 3B until Mathews. But now we've seen Brooks, Beltre, Nettles, Gaetti, Boggs, Schmidt, Bell, Mathews, Santo, ARam, Wallach, Rolen, Yost and (nearly) Chipper, Cey and not that ARod at 2000 games (Chipper would easily be there except for his brief sojourn to LF). And of course that ARod was still playing a perfectly capable 3B in his late 30s. Not to mention Brett and some others who shifted elsewhere, playing through their mid-late 30s. But like 2B, there's nowhere for a solid but not great 3B to go if both the bat and glove decline.**
There are always "early collapse" guys who, in retrospect, were maybe just "worn out because they started young and played every day." Santo's final (and quite bad) season was 34. But he was up at 20 and played virtually every day after that and had nearly 9000 PA and over 2100 games by age 33 -- that's a lot of career even if it's not exactly a long career. On the other hand of course, most players who'd made it to 9000ish PA through age 33 would have easily lasted to 10,000 or 11,000 PAs. The obvious 2B equivalent is Alomar -- he collapsed at 34 but he had over 600 PA at 20, nearly 9000 PA and over 2000 games by 33. He was given two seasons to get it back together so made it over 10,000 PAs but wasn't very good. Is that a "short" or a "long" career? A guy who doesn't become full-time until 24 then lasts until he's 38-39 and ends up at about 9000 PAs "aged well" while the guy who was full-time at 20 but only lasted until 34-35 and ends up at about 9000 PAs didn't? That's OK as long as we acknowledge the front end and, say, assess all players/careers/arcs for three(?) phases of development/prime/decline and put Santo/Alomar in the great/great/poor bucket and Jeff Kent in the poor/good/great bucket.
** On average or in the "ideal" this is true at every position except maybe CF and SS (and C of course, those guys are simply different beasties). Schwarber's got nowhere to go but 1B (where he'd be "short") and DH so once the bat slips to a 100 OPS+, he's done. An average CF whose bat starts to slip isn't in a great spot but should still be able to play an average or better defensive LF/RF which will sometimes be enough to be the 26th man. SS are in the best spot because a glove-first backup IF role is quite common.
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