Holy ####.

Also holy ####: it appears the White Sox broke this on twitter before anyone.

Wow. Wow wow.

Holy shitwow.

BOOM!

Ugh. Both Cease and Jimenez? I would have traded one but not both. That's my first thought anyway.

EDIT: I guess Cease is only in Low A, so is a pretty big risk.

Quintana is under control until 2020. This is a slightly better package than the Cubs gave up last year for Chapman (Cease is a better prospect that anyone besides Torres in that deal), but this is obviously a better return for the Cubs. The Cubs have pretty much emptied out the minor league system - which is fine, especially since the major league roster, outside of the pitching staff is pretty young.

The White Sox system now, is just, wow. Jimenez looks awesome, he is impressive in person.

First impressions after thinking about it for all of 3 minutes: I like it a lot for the Cubs. Quintana is under control through 2020, his age-31 season, on a good contract. That's exactly the kind of improvement they need to make. Any report on his relative struggles this year? His peripherals still look fine, although his walks are up. Strikeouts, too, but that could just reflect the overall MLB increase. Anyway, Quintana seems like exactly the kind of guy you give up your best prospects for.

Goddam the White Sox are loaded.

Over the past five seasons (including this one), Quintana is tied for sixth with Jon Lester in pitcher WAR (according to FanGraphs) at 20.1 and seventh at 19.0, according to Baseball-Reference.

He’s highly durable, one of only nine pitchers with at least 900 innings since 2013. He has made 147 starts during that time, topped only by Max Scherzer, Lester and Jeff Samardzija. For pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched who exclusively pitched in the American League – where lineups are inarguably deeper – Quintana is 11th since 2013 with a 3.48 ERA.

He's a younger, cheaper Lester. Hard to argue with adding that type of player.

One of the 4 prospects the White Sox acquired was Bryant Flete.

Take a look at that link. He's a 24-year-old second baseman who's stuck in A-ball (in his one taste of AA, he slugged .260).

I'd really love to have been in the room for those negotiations. I mean....come on. This guy is just a warm body...and he's part of a Jose Quintana trade!

Pretty good trade for Chicago.

#12 I see what you did there

I really like this trade for both sides.

As a Cubs fan, I'm sorry to see Jimenez going, but the Cubs outfield is pretty well stocked with young players under team control for quite a while - Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Heyward (he's not cheap, but he's relatively young and under team control) and Quintana shores up the Cubs' biggest weakness very, very nicely.

If I was a White Sox fan, I'd be sorry to see Quintana go, but Jimenez will fit in very nicely when they're ready to compete and Cease is a very nice complementary piece.

Agree with Kiko. I still think it's a longshot that the Cubs make a real run this year, but Quintana will be well worth it for 2018-20. This is exactly the kind of trade both teams should be making at this point in their cycles.

One of the 4 prospects the White Sox acquired was Bryant Flete.

Take a look at that link. He's a 24-year-old second baseman who's stuck in A-ball (in his one taste of AA, he slugged .260).

I'd really love to have been in the room for those negotiations. I mean....come on. This guy is just a warm body...and he's part of a Jose Quintana trade!

Yeah. How did that happen? Was a low level Cubs staffer tasked with putting together a list of their 55th-60th best prospects?

Well, this is better than the Chapman trade, which I remember being fairly ambivalent about at the time.

I know that in terms of "value" Quintana is a highly desirable player. Young-ish, cost-controlled, durable, effective.

At the same time, though, it seems like a lot to give up in terms of actual difference to the W-L column. He has a lot of miles on his arm for his age, and his effectiveness has slipped a little this season ... I wonder if there's reason for concern there. And at any rate, while he's good, he's still a mid-rotation starter even at his best.

The Cubs need a guy like him, for sure - he plugs a major hole in the rotation on a presumably long-term basis. And I don't doubt that they effectively paid true market value for him. I'm not even saying they shouldn't have done it. But I wonder if the market's maybe not a little out of whack.

Is no one worried that Quintana's been worn out by all the innings? He hasn't been very good this year, has he?

Agree with Kiko. I still think it's a longshot that the Cubs make a real run this year, but Quintana will be well worth it for 2018-20.

Especially since the Cubs are losing two of their starting pitchers this off-season & the free agent market ain't the best.

For Chicagoans, Rick Hahn will be on The Score in 10 minutes to discuss this.

He's not a mid rotation starter at his best,he is a near ace. Q pitched on a lot of #### Sox teams. I'm happy to see him go to a team that can actually get him some wins and recognition.

He has been homer happy this year but the peripherals and stuff are fine. Enjoy him Cubs fans.

And at any rate, while he's good, he's still a mid-rotation starter even at his best.

This a pretty severe undersell.

Is this the first Sox/Cubs deal since Garland/Karchner? I know Garland was a top pick, but was that considered a big deal at the time, or had Garland's prospect sheen worn off?

Is no one worried that Quintana's been worn out by all the innings? He hasn't been very good this year, has he?

There's never a time not to be worried about a pitcher's arm/health, but Quintana's still young, his history has been injury relatively clean, and he's been much better over the last month. I'm optimistic that April/May was a blip not a trend.

He hasn't been very good this year, has he?

He was very bad early on but has been better lately. Blatant small-sample cherry-picking, but he has a 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .622 OPS-allowed, and 45-16 K-BB over his last 7 starts / 40 innings. I would expect him to benefit from moving from the White Sox defense to the Cubs defense, too.

Is this the first Sox/Cubs deal since Garland/Karchner? I know Garland was a top pick, but was that considered a big deal at the time, or had Garland's prospect sheen worn off?

Fans knew much less about prospects then, so there wasn't really any sort of consensus. Even so, at that point fans might have known more about the Cubs farm system than the people running the club did.

22--How could you forget?

November 16, 2006. The Chicago White Sox traded Neal Cotts to the Chicago Cubs for Carlos Vasquez (minors) and David Aardsma.

He's not a mid rotation starter at his best,he is a near ace.

If you really look at it closely (which I did when the Pirates were rumored to be after him in the off-season) he's closer to the former than to the latter right now, and I see a lot of caveat emptor signs here.

His HR rate and walk rate this season are the highest of his career (to be fair, so is his strikeout rate). He's averaging fewer than 6 IP per start for the first time in his career - and he's got a fairly consistent pattern of fading in August and (to a lesser extent) in September. June and July are easily his best months, August and September are typically his worst.

I think the Cubs overpaid, quite honestly; his margin for error was IMO pretty small and he might be on the wrong side of it now.

-- MWE

Jesse Rogers‏ @ESPNChiCubs 43m43 minutes ago

Hahn reached out to Theo Sunday morning after they talked after the draft. Since then things "ramped up." Deal agreed upon last night

I still can't believe this didn't leak at all.

Jesse Rogers‏ @ESPNChiCubs 30m30 minutes ago

Hahn said he hid behind an exhibit at fan fest in Miami to talk with Theo.

HA!

I'm thrilled, since this means the Yankees can't acquire Quintana.

This debate ("He's not a mid rotation starter at his best,he is a near ace") reminds me a little bit about the Doug Fister argument when he was traded to the Nationals. By WAR he was indisputably among the best starters in baseball ... but a lot of people just didn't buy it because he just didn't seem that skilled for whatever reason. He didn't throw hard, he had no prospect pedigree...

Didn't MacPhail pretty much fire Lynch over the Karchner trade? IIRC his reaction was basically "wtf are we doing trading away a first-rounder for a mediocre bullpen guy?"

It was pretty controversial in real time, I guess is what I'm saying.

I still can't believe this didn't leak at all.

Last night on Reddit, someone posted that they had heard from a family member working for one of the two clubs (or maybe a family member of a friend who worked for one of the clubs) that a deal had been reached to send Quintana to the Cubs for 4 prospects. But they didn't have all the details.

I will never doubt KatyPerrysBootyHole again.

RICK HAHN INTERVIEW ON THE SCORE - transcribed as it went as best I could:

Apparently was hiding behind an exhibit at a Fan Fest at the Miami Convention Center while talking on the cell phone with Theo Epstein.

Why Jimenez & Cease? HAHN: They were essential to the package. Eloy Jimenez they feel is one of the best position player prospects out there. They feel he can be a solid corner outfielder defensively. View both as having lots of upside.

Did other players come up in the conversation? HAHN: Well, don't want to get into specifics too much, but there was some work done after it became clear that Jiminez & Cease would be in it. They texted back-forth during the All-Star Game & had the deal in place by the game's ending. They did medical/administrative issues yesterday. Deal done officially today.

You've said previously that it's laughable that Reinsdorf would nix any Cubs deal - this confirm that? No way Reinsdorf would make a key deal like this and take less based on emotions, that's laughable. That's not how we're wired. Not what we do. If we did, the wrong people would be running the franchise.

How hard to get rid of Quintana? HAHN: Really hard. Not just what he does on the field, but he's a great kid. Probably the hardest working on the pitching staff. And clubhouse culture is something we're trying to bulid. But this deal put us in a better place on what we're trying to do.

Will any of the hot prospects make it to the majors later this year? HAHN: It's possible. Guys are progressing well and doing what we want them to do in the minors. These are conversations that we'll have with our minor league guys.

Did you think you'd be able to restock the minor league system so quickly? HAHN: That was our intent. And there is more work to do. We're not done. But when we went down this road and talked about it, we discussed how important it was to bring back premium talent. You never know exactly how it'll play out and what opportunities will be presented, but we're pleased with how the last 12 months have gone going back to last year's draft.

The react we're getting - in all caps, THANK YOU RICK/KENNY/JERRY - we don't often get that. HAHN: Everyone - fanbase, front office - everyone seems to be on board. We've been thrilled with the fan reactoin. We weren't sure what it would be when we went down this road. We were somewhat confident the fans would get it, but we weren't sure. Fans have been great. Part of it is what Ricky Renteria and the coaching staff has done. I think the fans have embraced the fight and the challenge we're on.

The Sox have gone from winning now, to rolling rebuild, to a full rebulid. Does it feel really different to you? HAHN: We do like the longterm vision. We want all our doings aligned to the same goal. What we did earlier was based on what we had on hand. That determines what direction you take. He began in 2001 and what they had on hand led to 2005. We think our course now will pay off in a few days.

What do you expect for the next few weeks: HAHN: I hope to be busy. We're not done with this.

Seems like the Matt Garza trade all over again.

My thing about Quintana was based simply on the fact that his value is tied up in durability. Sure, he has a high WAR over the past X years but he hasn't missed any time. In that time, though, he's just not really had any dominant seasons. He's a good pitcher!! But he's unlikely to be a CYA contender any time soon and his best seasons have seen him sneak into the fringe of consideration for down-ballot votes.

Near-ace is more of an oversell than mid-rotation is an undersell.

It was pretty controversial in real time, I guess is what I'm saying.

That's my memory too. I remember the Cubs were trying to shore up the bullpen for the surprising 1998 team, but Garland was seen as a future #2-3 in the rotation at the time who was struggling in the minors at age 18, while Karchner was a long-term minor leaguer who, at age 30, had a halfway decent season (ERA 2.91, but WHIP 1.44) and earned the label "proven closer" as a result.

It seemed like a crazy overpay at the time, and that turned out to be 100% accurate.

This debate ("He's not a mid rotation starter at his best,he is a near ace") reminds me a little bit about the Doug Fister argument when he was traded to the Nationals. By WAR he was indisputably among the best starters in baseball ... but a lot of people just didn't buy it because he just didn't seem that skilled for whatever reason. He didn't throw hard, he had no prospect pedigree...

In Quintana's case, his strikeout rate has held back perception of him as an ace level performer as it was below league average. It's taken a big jump this year (9.4 vs. a prior season best of 8.0) but so have his walk rates (3.45 vs. a prior season high of 2.77) and home run rates (1.21 vs. 1.04). It's hard to say whether that bodes well or ill for his future.

For my part, since Quintana first started getting shopped this offseason it's gnawed at me that the White Sox were trying to trade him even though he would be under team control through 2020 when they would expect to be trying to contend again. Maybe that's not rational but I always hoped the guy the Cubs would go after aggressively would be Chris Archer.

I'd guess it's almost guaranteed now that Robertson and Frazier are traded during this season. But what about Abreu?

Near-ace is more of an oversell than mid-rotation is an undersell.

Not with the "at his best" condition you added initially.

Pitchers with similar WAR, IP and ERA+ to Quintana since WWII, thru age-28 season:

Best news I have heard all week for cardinals. It means they won't do a big "buy" - can be content with small deals that build for 2018 and beyond. Bad news for Brewers who won't likely to be able to keep up.

I expect the cubs to do more and go all-in on next three years. Smart

Are the White Sox really better off with this trade (and the Sale trade) than keeping those guys? I get that they aren't exactly stacked but what are the chances that the players in these two days produce more than Sale and Quintana are likely to provide over the coming three years (2 1/2 now for Sale)?

Is he a near ace? A mid-rotation guy?

I did research on value from rotation slots for this site (over 10 years ago!!).

Average ERA+ for a #1 starter: 118
Average ERA+ for a #3 starter: 96

Quintana has a career ERA+ of 115 and is at 95 this season.

Is he a near ace? A mid-rotation guy?

I did research on value from rotation slots for this site (over 10 years ago!!).

Average ERA+ for a #1 starter: 118
Average ERA+ for a #3 starter: 96

Quintana has a career ERA+ of 115 and is at 95 this season.

So the answer is "yes."

 

So what you're saying is Eloy Jimenez = Lou Brock?

Quintana career ERA+ of 115. Mid-rotation would be a 100 ERA+, if not 98. There are below average starters, you know. As in, almost half.

Edit: Coke to Nabbit

Are the White Sox really better off with this trade (and the Sale trade) than keeping those guys? I get that they aren't exactly stacked but what are the chances that the players in these two days produce more than Sale and Quintana are likely to provide over the coming three years (2 1/2 now for Sale)?

I doubt it. But the argument is probably that Sale/Quintana were likely to be wasted because they knew they wouldn't win anything in the next few years. Would you rather have a 5 WAR player in 2018, knowing you'll otherwise suck in 2018, or a 3 WAR player in 2021?

Are the White Sox really better off with this trade (and the Sale trade) than keeping those guys? I get that they aren't exactly stacked but what are the chances that the players in these two days produce more than Sale and Quintana are likely to provide over the coming three years (2 1/2 now for Sale)?

I doubt it. But the argument is probably that Sale/Quintana were likely to be wasted because they knew they wouldn't win anything in the next few years. Would you rather have a 5 WAR player in 2018, knowing you'll otherwise suck in 2018, or a 3 WAR player in 2021?

I guess a lot of it hinges on what happens with the savings they are realizing by shedding the contracts of Sale/Quintana (and presumably Robertson et al). I.E. will it go towards talent or just to the owners?

Edit: and if they use the money for talent, how far away from the majors (if at all) will that talent be?

But the argument is probably that Sale/Quintana were likely to be wasted because they knew they wouldn't win anything in the next few years. Would you rather have a 5 WAR player in 2018, knowing you'll otherwise suck in 2018, or a 3 WAR player in 2021?

But why should they have expected to suck in 2018? Sale, Quintana, Abreu is a pretty strong looking base to me and with Melky, assorted Garcias and even (if they believed in him which presumably they did) Anderson behind them I think they weren't that far from contending. I've never been a believer in trading the universe to bring in prospects and the 2 wild card system just makes it too wide open for my taste. Unless you are a complete disaster* then I'd want to ride out my talent. Players like Sale especially but even Quintana and Abreu aren't that common.

* - I don't know a damned thing about where the White Sox system was before the deals. If it was particularly barren and I think that may have been the case then that's an argument for these deals as it would be difficult to augment without some minor league talent in place.

Jose, I agree. I don't really get the rebuild.

Outside of Moncada the prospects brought back in the Sale trade aren't really putting themselves in a good position to be mainstays for the Sox. With this trade the two big chips are Eloy and Dylan with Eloy being the shinier bauble.

At this point Sox might be getting good production out of two of their prospects in these trades in 2019 or 2020 which by that point puts Abreu at the end of his contract and on the wrong side of 30.

Jose, I agree. I don't really get the rebuild.

Thirded. The rebuild seems to have been "necessitated" by a shitty front-office that couldn't assemble a bunch of 1 and 2 WAR players around their core. The last few years the White Sox have had good top-end talent but it's been drowned by the sub-mediocrities around them.

The 2016 team had Eaton (6.2 WAR), Frazier (3.4), Abreu (2.8), Anderson (2.8), Cabrera (2.7), Quintana (5.1), Sale (4.9), Jone (2.3) and all were under control for 2017, and most well beyond that. That's 30.4 WAR from 8 players. A front office that could assemble complimentary talent should have been able to build a contender around that.

The Sox F.O. couldn't do that, so the "had to" rebuild. Of course, why you would trust that front office with a rebuild is anyone's guess.

Jose - the White Sox' system was incredibly barren. I believe their previous #1 (Carson Fulmer) is now their #5-7.

I've heard a lot of discussion that Quintana's walk rate spike is almost exclusively due to his curveball being squeezed at the bottom of the zone. I didn't confirm that myself by looking at anything relevant, and I have no idea if that is likely to persist (has MLB told the umps to tighten up on the bottom of the zone?), or if it's already corrected itself (either by way of Quintana adjusting to it, or the strike zone "normalizing," or both).

Just thought that was a useful tidbit for the discussion.

FWIW, I think this is as close to win-win as it gets. I view Quintana as one of the best #2 starters in the game or a poor man's ace -- IOW, he's a top 35 pitcher in the game. 215 IP of 115-125 ERA+ ball is never out of place on a win-now club. The Sox continue to stockpile future assets. Pretty basic analysis, but I don't think much more complexity is needed, at least not to do a decent hot take...

EDIT: #53 is an excellent post and is spot-on. The FO's failure in bringing in 2 WAR guys to fill gaping holes was galling. (Dexter Fowler or Ian Desmond to play CF in 2016 was the most obvious move, like, ever. I was screaming for it. Instead they went with the reanimated corpse of Austin Jackson. CF ended up a big problem on the 2016 club.)

Add in that the AL Central didn't look to be a particularly daunting division over the next 2-3 seasons, and there were good reasons to think that the previous core could have competed. I think Eaton staying healthy was always a concern. But in any event, obviously once they traded Sale, they were committed, and it'd be the worst possible thing to half rebuild. They have to dump current assets for future assets at this point.

Jose - the White Sox' system was incredibly barren. I believe their previous #1 (Carson Fulmer) is now their #5-7.

Right. But the question is why would you expect a fron office that did such a terrible job at drafting and developing minor league talent to do a good job acquiring the right prospects in these trades, and developing them properly?

I didn't confirm that myself by looking at anything relevant, and I have no idea if that is likely to persist (has MLB told the umps to tighten up on the bottom of the zone?), or if it's already corrected itself (either by way of Quintana adjusting to it, or the strike zone "normalizing," or both).

According to #24, in his "good" stretch Quintana has given up 16 walks over his last 40 innings.

Looking at Fangraphs pitch analysis charts he scrapped his cutter last year. Any idea why?

Thirded. The rebuild seems to have been "necessitated" by a shitty front-office that couldn't assemble a bunch of 1 and 2 WAR players around their core. The last few years the White Sox have had good top-end talent but it's been drowned by the sub-mediocrities around them.

The 2016 team had Eaton (6.2 WAR), Frazier (3.4), Abreu (2.8), Anderson (2.8), Cabrera (2.7), Quintana (5.1), Sale (4.9), Jone (2.3) and all were under control for 2017, and most well beyond that. That's 30.4 WAR from 8 players. A front office that could assemble complimentary talent should have been able to build a contender around that.

The Sox F.O. couldn't do that, so the "had to" rebuild. Of course, why you would trust that front office with a rebuild is anyone's guess.

There's a lot of talk locally about how much money they pump into the team, and how much meddling there is from Reinsdorf and/or Kenny Williams.

The counter to your point is you'd be trusting a FO that compiled that top end talent, and plenty of it from guys who weren't considered blue chip prospects. For whatever reason, they couldn't (or wouldn't spend to) build enough around it. The Sox act like a small to midmarket team and they've been rolling with the retooling/trying to contend rebuild at the same time for a number of years and realized they weren't getting it done. Are they really good at identifying talent or not? You can interpret their results either way I guess.

Hahn, the current GM, gets most of the credit for those good players and Kenny gets a lot of the blame for moves like the Frazier one or the Robertson signing. FWIW, Hahn has won Jerry over and committed to the rebuild. If this round of blue chip talent turns out, and he can build around it, well, they're in the same boat as tons of other teams.

Looking at Fangraphs pitch analysis charts he scrapped his cutter last year. Any idea why?

He may have, but the first thing to ask when seeing something like that is: Did he really scrap/learn a new pitch? Or is the pitch classification system picking things up a bit differently? We probably have a few cases like that, especially this year with the switch from pitch f/x to Trackman.

Great trade for both sides.

Right. But the question is why would you expect a fron office that did such a terrible job at drafting and developing minor league talent to do a good job acquiring the right prospects in these trades, and developing them properly?

One playoff appearance in the 11 seasons (soon to be 12) since the World Series win. This will be their 5th straight sub .500 season. It's an incredible run of ineptitude, and the same guy is still in charge.

Sahadev Sharma‏ @sahadevsharma 5m5 minutes ago
Theo said when he called abt Chris Sale in offseason was told it would take a huge package led by Kris Bryant. Those talks didn't last long

It seems to me that there was a change in the White Sox decision making process this offseason, and that this is finally more Hahn's team than Kenny Williams' team. From the flip-flopping on keeping Ventura to the sudden influx of prospects, it feels different from the past. What I'm saying is that it's not clear to me that this front office is the same as the old front office, even though the same nameplates are on all of the doors.

There's a lot of talk locally about how much money they pump into the team, and how much meddling there is from Reinsdorf and/or Kenny Williams.

The counter to your point is you'd be trusting a FO that compiled that top end talent, and plenty of it from guys who weren't considered blue chip prospects. For whatever reason, they couldn't (or wouldn't spend to) build enough around it. The Sox act like a small to midmarket team and they've been rolling with the retooling/trying to contend rebuild at the same time for a number of years and realized they weren't getting it done. Are they really good at identifying talent or not? You can interpret their results either way I guess.

Hahn, the current GM, gets most of the credit for those good players and Kenny gets a lot of the blame for moves like the Frazier one or the Robertson signing. FWIW, Hahn has won Jerry over and committed to the rebuild. If this round of blue chip talent turns out, and he can build around it, well, they're in the same boat as tons of other teams.

Even if this talent crop develops a core as good as Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Abreu/Frazier, which is no mean feat, if they have the same problems filling in around it, all they will have done is wasted 5-7 years.

No team can fill its entire roster from internally developed talent. At some point they're going to have to rely on FA and trades for established major leaguers to fill the gaps.

"I'm thrilled, since this means the Yankees can't acquire Quintana."

Me too. He feels like the 2017 version of Javier Vasquez.

Right. But the question is why would you expect a fron office that did such a terrible job at drafting and developing minor league talent to do a good job acquiring the right prospects in these trades, and developing them properly?

If you don't expect the front office to do that properly then you should keep Sale and Quintana and get rid of the GM.

If you don't expect the front office to do that properly then you should keep Sale and Quintana and get rid of the GM.

That's what I would have done.

Re: Karchner, the guy had an ERA in the 5s, he wasn't even superficially good when they traded for him.

And alongside trading the '97 1st rounder for Karchner, Lynch traded the '96 1st rounder(Todd Noel), Justin Speier, and Kevin Orie(their starting 3B to begin the year, after a cromulent rookie year) for Felix Heredia, also of a 5+ ERA, except he never had a superficially good year like Karchner.

Sahadev Sharma‏ @sahadevsharma 5m5 minutes ago
Theo said when he called abt Chris Sale in offseason was told it would take a huge package led by Kris Bryant. Those talks didn't last long

That's insane. I wonder if that's a case where they didn't want to trade him in the city. It's one thing to have Sale doing his thing in Boston but another to have him doing it right in your backyard. I wonder how the Cubs would have reacted if the ChiSox had asked for Baez.

You mean adding Baez to the package they gave up for Quintana? I think the Cubs would have had to seriously consider it. Sure, you can build a blockbuster around Sale and Bryant - if I weren't a Cubs fan, I'd love that type of trade* - but it's not the Cubs throwing in extra players.

*I'm just drawing a blank now, but what's the last star for star, with both in their primes and plenty of control left, MLB deal?

*I'm just drawing a blank now, but what's the last star for star, with both in their primes and plenty of control left, MLB deal?

The one I always remember was Fred McGriff/Tony Fernandez for Roberto Alomar/Joe Carter.

*I'm just drawing a blank now, but what's the last star for star, with both in their primes and plenty of control left, MLB deal?

Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler? At least it looked that way at the time, anyway.

*I'm just drawing a blank now, but what's the last star for star, with both in their primes and plenty of control left, MLB deal?

It's not a perfect fit and isn't the most recent, but maybe the Clemens-Wells trade.

Edit: Rodriguez/Soriano is another one.

You mean adding Baez to the package they gave up for Quintana? I think the Cubs would have had to seriously consider it. Sure, you can build a blockbuster around Sale and Bryant - if I weren't a Cubs fan, I'd love that type of trade* - but it's not the Cubs throwing in extra players.

No, for the off-season deal. If Theo had said "we aren't giving you Bryant but let's start a package with Baez." I don't know if that would've necessarily been the right move for the Cubs but it would be something reasonable if the ChiSox were determined to get someone MLB or near-MLB ready.

I'm not so sure I like this deal. I mean I like who the Cubs got, but I was very attached to Eloy and was hoping Cease would turn into a starter at the big league level. In the end though flags fly forever and this helps them have a chance at more over the next few years.

Re 68

Eh, cub draft picks from that era we're almost universally crap. Who would have thought any of those floaters would actually be something decent?

Not with the "at his best" condition you added initially.

Well, I suppose that just depends on what we mean by "at his best" and maybe "near-ace". But he's never finished in the MLB top 10 in either ERA+ or pitcher WARP. He's been an All-Star exactly once and received CYA votes exactly once (finishing 10th).

He's never had a season where he was particularly close to an "ace" as most people use the term (which as I understand it is not synonymous with "average #1 starter", as is implied by #44). In a good rotation, he's a decent 2nd starter or a really good 3rd. Last season was his best season by ERA+, and the Cubs had three starters who beat him and a fourth who was right on his heels.

#61 - that is where you and others are fundamentally mistaken.

In the last few years, there has been an explicit shift in control from Kenny Williams to Rick Hahn. That is a fact; Hahn is the GM.

In the last year, there has been a very clear implicit shift from a retooling strategy, led in part (if not entirely, and certainly most importantly) by Reinsdorf's lack of desire to enter a full rebuilding phase, to a rebuilding strategy. Even if the people in the front office are the same (which they aren't necessarily), the plan and strategy as is very clear to Sox fans is fundamentally different, and that's why I trust them to get it done. I (and many others) see this as a situation where we had a guy like Hahn who is in the mold of Theo and the other great modern GMs of the game, but was hamstrung until very recently by the team's owner.

I get the questioning of a rebuild, but it is funny to me because as a fan I've waited for this for a while and was thrilled we finally committed. The argument in #53 is compelling, but I have a few responses:

1) I'm not sure that core really is good enough to contend with even average players around it - certainly not on an expected ongoing basis with Eaton and Anderson outperforming expectations by that much. If you want to argue in 2016 they should have done better since they actually received that production, that's kind of a fair point, but leads into my second below. I also just don't see a team built around two great SP, three to four good position players (maybe Eaton qualifies as great), and one or two great relievers as a legitimate contender. Look at some of the other dominant forces around MLB:

Red Sox - Price Porcello and Kimbrel rivals Sale Quintana Jones, Betts / Bogaerts / Bradley / Pedroia / Ortiz is IMO a ridiculously superior group of players to Abreu / Eaton / Anderson / Frazier
Cubs - Arrieta Lester Chapman is worse than our pitching, no comparison at all between lineups
Indians - Kluber Carrasco Miller Allen, then Lindor Ramirez Kipnis Santana et al in the field

To me those are teams that were head and shoulders above the Sox core-wise. Obviously it's a very simplified analysis and a team doesn't have to be elite in MLB to be a contender... but still. I'm sure anyone could tear this to shreds but that's just my opinion of why I never had an issue with the rebuild

2) To me Cabrera (and to a lesser extent Frazier) are examples of trying to fill out the roster with dregs or average players and seeing what sticks. In an ideal scenario you get the core production you've outlined from core, reliable players you've developed or acquired, which for the 2016 team was only a subset of who you've listed there. Then you fill that out with the gambles and veterans like them

[76]I see your point, but they did bookend those picks with Wood and Patterson.

He's never had a season where he was particularly close to an "ace" as most people use the term (which as I understand it is not synonymous with "average #1 starter", as is implied by #44). In a good rotation, he's a decent 2nd starter or a really good 3rd. Last season was his best season by ERA+, and the Cubs had three starters who beat him and a fourth who was right on his heels.

Only one of which had a higher WAR, and then just barely. Quintana has had 2 seasons above 5 WAR, and another above 4. Last year there were 15 pitchers with higher than 5. In 2015 there were 8. In 2014, there were 11. Now, he may never get back to that level. But that is an ace starter under any reasonable definition.

I don't get the argument that the Sox didn't try to fill in around the stars. They did - most of them crapped the bed the first year they were acquired: Cabrera, Dunn, Robertson, Frazier, LaRoche, Samardzija, Shields. Most of them cost either draft pick compensation or some of the better players in a very thin farm system. Desmond and Fowler would have cost the same with similar results.

I get that entrusting the rebuild to the same architects raises doubts. But doing the same thing and expecting different results isn't a sign of intelligence. Kenny Williams has nothing to do with talent acquisition anymore, and the amateur scouting director was replaced. Two years too late, but better late than never.

(And some of Kenny Williams' issue goes back to when Toronto was trying to hire him as VP ops. Reinsdorf either had to let him walk or give him more control. He chose the latter and it didn't pay dividends. But at least Jerry finally realized the mistake - so he's now paying Williams to do practically nothing.)

Strike zone: There's an article linked here from HBT giving their regular strike zone update. It's smaller this year than it's been the last 3-4 years and that small reduction has come off the bottom of the zone (after several years of adding to the bottom of the zone). Whether this is impacting Quintana I can't say.

AROM's technology point: Also discussed a bit in that HBT article. It seems the change from pitch f/x to statcast has caused the measured zone to shift 3/4 of an inch to the LH batter's box. (OK, sloppy phrasing by me ... this could be a real change but is more likely a technological change or a mix of both.)

Doug Fister: He indeed gave Washington a big year of 4.5 bWAR but did so despite a collapsing K-rate by out-pitching his FIP by 1.5 runs. He also missed 7 starts. Since then he's had an 87 ERA+ and 0 WAR. Looks like the Nats got lucky in Year 1. In that trade they gave up Robbie Ray who took a while to figure things out but from 2015-17 has put up 400 innings, 111 ERA+, 6 WAR and is in the middle of a season that rivals Fister's 2014. So I sure hope this doesn't resemble the Fister trade. (There was a lot of debate as to how good of a prospect Ray was.)

Domborowski ended up the big loser as he swapped Ray to the DBacks with Gregorius going to the Yanks and Shane Greene ending up in Detroit. To further shore up his rotation, he then traded Eugenio Suarez to the Reds for Alfredo Simon.

Gregorius -- 7 WAR and going
Ray -- 6 WAR and going
Suarez -- 4.6 WAR and going
Fister -- 4.5 WAR, done
Simon -- -0.7 WAR for Detroit, -3 total, done
Greene -- -1.4 WAR for Detroit and going

Detroit could have Suarez and either Ray or Gregorius. Fister for Ray was his best trade in this sequence. Simon's 2016 must rank as one of the worst pitcher seasons of all time (for Cincy) at -2.2 WAR in just 59 IP -- a whopping 61 ER.

On the trade: In Theo I trust I guess. I'd be happier if Quintana was having a good year instead of making me worried. Still, Eloy and Cease are pretty far away and the logical part of my brain knows there's still a good chance they won't be anything. I don't imagine the Sox were interested but I certainly would have rather put Schwarber in this deal than Jimenez. Still it's the sort of move the Cubs had to make not so much for 2017 but for 2018-20 ... but of course if it's not enough to impact 2017, it could have waited until the offseason when maybe Archer would have been available.

The comp to the Garza trade seems pretty accurate. Archer was the big prize there but Chirinos, Fuld and Guyer all eventually turned into useful MLers too. Hard to see the package the Sox got ever developing that deeply but there's certainly a chance Jimenez will match Archer and Cease has a shot to produce more than any of the other three.

If I were Quintana, I'd immediately hold out and re- negotiate. He has a ton of leverage and the Cubs would have to at least make an effort. He's already banked some dough so he can afford to. Cubs need his arm RIGHT now so he has all the cards

The comp to the Garza trade seems pretty accurate. Archer was the big prize there but Chirinos, Fuld and Guyer all eventually turned into useful MLers

Big prize in retrospect. At the time, the centerpiece was Hak Lee.

If I were Quintana, I'd immediately hold out and re- negotiate. He has a ton of leverage and the Cubs would have to at least make an effort. He's already banked some dough so he can afford to. Cubs need his arm RIGHT now so he has all the cards

Hold out? Is that a thing anymore? Who was the last ML player to hold out?

The compete/rebuild debate for the Sox is an interesting one. I suppose it's almost guaranteed -- a team with enough talent that they might compete with a few average pieces and a bit of luck is also a team with enough desired talent on hand that they can quickly restock their system. The Sox had very attractive pieces in Sale, Eaton and Quintana and still quite solid pieces to trade in Frazier, Abreu, Robertson and maybe Melky. That's a lot better place to start a tear-down/rebuild from than what Theo or Luhnow had available a few years ago or what SD had/has available now. You'd think the Red Sox would be all over a Todd Frazier trade.

In general I point towards competing especially with a cost-controlled core of those three plus Abreu. But Hahn has gotten very good return in these trades. It's risky but at least it looks a lot better than that sequence of Dombrowski trades. :-)

For the Cubs ... I remember fondly when we somehow found Russell, Hendricks, Arrieta, Strop, Edwards, Montgomery in deals where we traded away guys of limited value/control. Now we're swapping out top-rated prospects for what we were fortunate/skilled enough to find at a much cheaper price in the past. The only similar Theo deal that springs to mind was the trade for AGon which, in itself, worked out quite OK for the Red Sox (or would have) but did ship Rizzo out.

(Yes, I know, the Monty trade was only a year ago ... but the first half of 2017 has seemed like it's lasted two years!)

Hold out? LOL. Quintana has zero leverage at the moment -- he's not going to have enough impact to change the 2017 Cubs season -- and there is pretty much zero chance the Cubs or MLB would ever concede to set such a precedent. If Quintana wanted leverage, he should have insisted on a NTC in that deal he signed. Right now, he doesn't even have the leverage to politely renegotiate his deal (a la Salvador Perez for example) since he's built up no good will with the Cubs yet.

Now if he does go all Randy Johnson, lead us into the playoffs and win 5 starts in the postseason, then he can approach the Cubs about a renegotiation.

The closest recent example was probably Lackey with the Cards. After the trade, the Cards had the minimum salary option for his "injury replacement year." Lackey didn't hold out, never even threatened to as I recall although a number of us (including me) expected him to at least raise the possibility and some expected him to actually hold out. But in that original deal, Lackey did write in that he got $500 K if traded so he got a little something. And the Cards added performance bonuses at 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200, all of which he met. In the end, he made $3 M if you include the "assignment bonus."

Quintana's situation isn't even close as he'd be risking $11 M guaranteed and $22 M in likely options if he held out now, not $500 K. The amount of guaranteed money he has left is about equal to the total amount he's earned in his career, it would be nuts to risk that.

It is instead the Cubs who have leverage IF (and it's a big if) they want to take the risk on extending Quintana through 2022-23. They can offer him a little more upfront (good for him) while getting a deal on the extra 2-3 years. I doubt they want to take that risk though.

In the last few years, there has been an explicit shift in control from Kenny Williams to Rick Hahn. That is a fact; Hahn is the GM.

In the last year, there has been a very clear implicit shift from a retooling strategy, led in part (if not entirely, and certainly most importantly) by Reinsdorf's lack of desire to enter a full rebuilding phase, to a rebuilding strategy. Even if the people in the front office are the same (which they aren't necessarily), the plan and strategy as is very clear to Sox fans is fundamentally different, and that's why I trust them to get it done. I (and many others) see this as a situation where we had a guy like Hahn who is in the mold of Theo and the other great modern GMs of the game, but was hamstrung until very recently by the team's owner.

The focus on competing doesn't excuse shitty drafting and development. If Hahn was so bad at that that his farm system was close to worst in baseball, why would you trust him with the rebuild?

I will never doubt KatyPerrysBootyHole again.

And you liked it!

Because Hahn had nothing to do with that farm system, or at most, a bit part? The Sox, on the face of things, were a fringe contender when he ostensibly took over in 2013, and were still in win now mode. But as we see in hindsight He inherited absolutely awful situation with a bottom 10 MLB roster and a bottom 3 farm on a team at max payroll.

I did a longish post on this over at Soxtalk a few weeks ago. It is a minor miracle where they are at now given the situation not only this time last year but when Hahn took over, again, ostensibly, as KW still had quite a bit of influence. KW is now basically a well compensated consultant with no real power, itis all Hahn.

Many Sox fans wondered why Hahn, who was a hot property, would agree to be the GM without full control -- well, he's got it now so moot point but even two years ago it wasn't clear he was anything more than the finance guy with KW still chief scout and player personnel guy.

For example when they signed Abreu it was universally reported it was KW that convinced JR to do it with a glowing report from his workout.

On the tablet but will expound more on this a bit later.

Holdouts are a time honored tradition for great players that are undervalued . He has tremendous leverage. The cubs just traded the farm for him and they can't demand the White Sox take him back - he's not injured. A true holdout would cost him money but I don't think it would get that far. I'm surprised more underpaid players who breakout don't do this. In its hey day, the player usually won (or got traded to the Senators or Phillies).

You say it's nuts to risk this but he's looking at three times that in market value. So if I had 10 mill in the bank and estimated my chance at 75-90% to get something, id probably find a way to get some more money

Anybody have Quintanas agents number? iwant to put in a finders fee claim

Kenny gets a lot of the blame for moves like the Frazier one or the Robertson signing

I'm not sure why there's blame to go around for either one of those transactions, if the Sox were having trouble filling out their roster around their stars & that was their chief problem. They got Frazier for basically nothing of value, and he's been as advertised since they got him -- a 3-4 win 3B. Robertson hasn't been a world-bestriding stopper, but he's continued getting his Ks and he hasn't been bad. It's not like they're breaking the bank on him.

You "don't think it would get that far"? So, the Cubs would just give him a raise because he threatens them?

Edit: nevermind.

Not that my posts are worth cross posting but this provides some good context to Hahn's tenure, from what I wrote at Soxtalk a few weeks ago after they signed Robert:

Let's take a trip down memory lane and look at the roster Hahn inherited in 2013, with the Sox coming off a 85-77 campaign:

2012 40 man, sorted by bWAR

That insane thing about that club is that they got almost 25 bWAR from guys on the wrong side of 30. Including a16 bWAR from the aging combination of Alexie, AJ, Rios and Peavy.

Few were clamoring for a "tear down" that offseason but it would become obvious in 2013 that the Sox were on a downward trajectory. How quickly things changed. One of the worst rosters in Sox history position players wise, with a 32 and 31 year old leading the Sox position players in bWAR (Alexei and Rios) with 2.8 and 1.2 respectively.

Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but in retrospect Hahn had inherited an old, bad, fluke of a 2012 team and also as a newly minted GM probably encountered quite a bit of inertia (led by KW) towards "staying the course" heading into 2013.

Well the rest is history, culminating in the exciting but ultimately fruitless 2014 offseason, and the lost 2015, 2016 and now 2017 seasons.

The Sox were able to cash in somewhat on Rios and Peavy, but what they really needed was fluke 5 WAR seasons, not prospects. Although the trades bolstered the system somewhat it would obviously be years before Avi and Leury contributed anything beyond replacement level.

Taking the long view back and comparing it with the current roster, midway through 2017 it's obvious how much has changed, with most of the Sox' position player WAR coming from guys under 28, and hardly anybody on the roster over 31, let alone relying on multiple mid 30s players.

The minor league system was 28-30th almost universally heading into 2013 and now it's almost universally top 3-5.

Payroll concerns are non existent and overall the org looks about 25th or so in MLB talent, top 5 in MiLB talent, and probably positioned in the upper 1/3 overall. It's a much better place to be then they were 5 years ago, that's for sure.

Overall I gave the rebuild an 8. The Sox have done a nice job, especially considering where they came from.

The links to the B-Ref pages for the Sox teams obviously won't come up in a text dump but if you get a second check them out. It's stunning how large a percentage of their production came from guys over 30, mostly flukes in hindsight -- last gasps for their careers.

Alexei Ramirez, AJ Alphabet, and Alex Rios produced for 12 bWAR that year. Not bad, but also completely non sustainable.

_____________________________________

So that gives you a bit of context on what Hahn has done. He's made mistakes sure, but overall he's brought the club an incredible amount of young talent and payroll room (which thankfully they are investing in the International side, finally).

This time last year the Sox had zero prospects in the MLB top 100, in any list really and certainly not consensus. They now have eight, including three in the top 11.

Carson Fulmer, who was in most estimations their #1 guy entering this year, isn't even in the top 10 now. Part of that is a mediocre sophomore year (he's destined to be a reliever, oh well) but it speaks loudly about how bad their system was, and how good (best in MLB or 1B with Atlanta?) it is now.

As for this particular move, great move for both clubs. We'll see how it plays out but Hahn got what Q was worth, and Theo got another three year timetable to fly some more banners. You can't put a price on that from a Cubs perspective and Hahn did well as he surely knew that. He said today that the Cubs' offer was by far the best they had in hand, which shouldn't really discourage or encourage either side -- this is always what it was going to take.

________________

also, I just wanted to take issue with What McCoy said up thread about Kopech and Basabe. Kopech has more than held his own at AA in his age 20 season. He's pushing through his career high in innings now and bumps are to be expected -- but to say he has taken a step back just isn't true. He's maintained his status, stayed healthy, and hasn't had any off field ####. That's why he's up to #11 in some lists rather than hanging around the 20s. Solid year for him so far.

Basabe is raw AF and was always a very clear 3rd wheel in that deal. He's going to bust 6/10, turn into a 1 WAR 4th OF the other two times, and turn into a stud the other two. We'll see. That he hasn't done much this year at his age and profile doesn't really mean much, and doesn't really mean much with Moncada and Kopech doing what they are.

And obviously, as we Sox fans always shouted: Chris Sale is ####### ridiculous.

Holdouts are a time honored tradition for great players that are undervalued

Are we in 1973 or something?

The Jon Lester comp is spot on, kudos to those that found it and linked it. I'd say Lester and Q arelike #1.5 guys. Ideally you'd have a Sale or whoever as your ace with a solid #2 slotted in behind (Say Q) for a playoff run --- but you #### and wish in one hand and see what fills up faster. You take what you can get, especially when your offense is as talented as the Cubs. Q is a nibbler, but man he's usually an effective one. His low innings this year have as much to do with Chicago (smartly) bubble wrapping him as lack of stamina -- and hey it helps the tank in multiple ways!

The Sox are going to suck once they trade Robertson (good get), Frazier (hey look another pretty solid Hahn get) , Melky (not a so solid get), and anything they can get for their #### pile of 6th starters (and Maybe Kahnle, who is a great Don Cooper story). Add a top 3 pick to this and you can see why Sox fans are going WOOOOOOO. It's fun to be doing a rebuild the right way, Hahn said as much on the radio today as well, talking about about how excited the fan base is. We've seen too much mediocrity after 2005. It's time for a change. The Sox tried stars + FA scrubs, didn't work, mostly due to their #### farm system(couldn't even pump out 1 WAR corner players), arguably the worst for position players in MLB over the last decade. Hahn came in at the end of a sinking ship.

He seems like a solid man for the new tact.

One playoff appearance in the 11 seasons (soon to be 12) since the World Series win. This will be their 5th straight sub .500 season. It's an incredible run of ineptitude, and the same guy is still in charge.

Rick Hahn was promoted to GM in 2013. There were some questions of if Williams was still calling the shots the next couple seasons, but the rebuild is entirely a Hahn joint.

Rick Hahn was promoted to GM in 2013. There were some questions of if Williams was still calling the shots the next couple seasons, but the rebuild is entirely a Hahn joint.

the perfect TL:DR for my #95.

Somebody actually thinks Quintana should hold out?

Did I get into my DeLorean and go back to the 70s and not notice?