Seems like slight Cubs win, but I'm biased.

Just a slight win? I thought Rizzo was considered a upper tiered prospect.

I guess expecting comments on actual baseball is beyond the scope of this board. Maybe if I raped someone in this thread.....

I think this is a pretty interesting trade for the Cubs. And probably the official end of whatever minor chance remained that they'd sign Prince Fielder.

I guess expecting comments on actual baseball is beyond the scope of this board. Maybe if I raped someone in this thread...

The site has been down for roughly an hour, this thread was posted a little before the site went down(it didn't actually go down, just wouldn't allow comments on anything from 3:50 until roughly 4:50.)

Baseball talk will resume on some threads.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Cashner will be used out of the bullpen. Rizzo and Cates for a bullpen arm and a fringy OF prospect seems like a really light return.

Between the Castro news and this signing, I think I have a new favorite Cub. Like me, he's beaten Hodgkin's. Unlike me, he can take a walk.

Rizzo has now been acquired three times by Jed Hoyer. I think it's fair to guess Hoyer rates Rizzo highly.

Latos > Cashner
Rizzo > Alonso

Grandal's pretty good, but he's going to need to max out for this chain of deals to not be a disaster for the Padres.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Cashner will be used out of the bullpen. Rizzo and Cates for a bullpen arm and a fringy OF prospect seems like a really light return.

Then it isn't just me, this seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubs correct?

Just a slight win?

Seeing that Cashner is likely limited to the bullpen makes me like this even more.

Then it isn't just me, this seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubs correct?

Better than "pretty good," I'd say.

The site has been down for roughly an hour, this thread was posted a little before the site went down(it didn't actually go down, just wouldn't allow comments on anything from 3:50 until roughly 4:50.)

I apologize. Thought it was probably too snarky when I wrote it anyway, but it's Friday, so whatever.

I love Rizzo. He struggled in the Majors last year but tore it up at AAA and is still very young.

I think this is a pretty interesting trade for the Cubs. And probably the official end of whatever minor chance remained that they'd sign Prince Fielder.

This is getting pretty interesting for Prince, no? Given the news of recent weeks, I didn't expect the Cubs to get Fielder, but you never say never until the ink is dried on the dotted line. With the Cubs out, that leaves Washington, Toronto, and who, Seattle? I'm anxious to see who blinks first. I don't think Prince is getting close to what he wants.

So the Padres turned Adrian Gonzalez into a reliever with health issues, a guy putting up unimpressive numbers at AA, a 4th OF type, and Eric Patterson.

Seeing that Cashner is likely limited to the bullpen makes me like this even more.

If that's true it's a steal for the Cubs.

So the Padres turned Adrian Gonzalez into a reliever with health issues, a guy putting up unimpressive numbers at AA, a 4th OF type, and Eric Patterson.

I was going to say that my only memory of Eric Patterson was a game against the White Sox in 2008 where he was one of four Cubs to go deep in the same inning. Upon further review, he only had an RBI-single in that inning, so my lone Eric Patterson memory isn't even accurate.

This is getting pretty interesting for Prince, no? Given the news of recent weeks, I didn't expect the Cubs to get Fielder, but you never say never until the ink is dried on the dotted line. With the Cubs out, that leaves Washington, Toronto, and who, Seattle? I'm anxious to see who blinks first. I don't think Prince is getting close to what he wants.

I'll piss myself laughing if he ends up going back hat-in-hand to Milwaukee. That 5/100 might be starting to look OK.

So the Padres turned Adrian Gonzalez into a reliever with health issues, a guy putting up unimpressive numbers at AA, a 4th OF type, and Eric Patterson.

What is up with the Padres? I seem to remember thinking about 2-3 years ago that they were going to have a massive offense and a couple of number two pitchers coming up in the near future, and it seems like they haven't panned out or have gotten traded. I mean Rizzo should have been given a legitimate shot this season, it's not like they are actually going to compete this year, let the kids play.

let the kids play.

They're playing Alonso. Not the kid I would have picked, but he has potential.

Yeah, I'mtrying to figure out what this means for Fielder. It seems like it might just be Washington left as a serious contender, with Milwaukee, Texas, Toronto and Baltimore as 'maybes'.

I was going to say that my only memory of Eric Patterson was a game against the White Sox in 2008 where he was one of four Cubs to go deep in the same inning. Upon further review, he only had an RBI-single in that inning, so my lone Eric Patterson memory isn't even accurate.

Outstanding. He went to Oakland in the Harden deal, right?

I like this trade a lot.

I'll piss myself laughing if he ends up going back hat-in-hand to Milwaukee. That 5/100 might be starting to look OK.

Honestly, this wouldn't surprise me at this point. Unless Prince is dead set on going elsewhere - if for no other reason than to not have egg on his face for being so adamant about leaving in the first place - why not go back? I'd say they have a better chance of getting into the postseason than any of his potential suitors and 5/100 certainly isn't peanuts, especially if no other team is stepping forward to slap a significantly better offer on the table.

Outstanding. He went to Oakland in the Harden deal, right?

I like this trade a lot.

That he did. I kind of liked him, but his last name made me suspect of whether he'd ever amount to much in the big leagues. Four years later and those suspicions weren't unjustified.

Speaking of that deal, I think that was the last really good trade Jim Hendry made. Hell, it may have been his last pretty good trade.

Yeah - I think this is clear win for the Cubs...

I will say, though --

- I liked Cashner quite a bit, but he has had health issues and it was always a question about whether he could stick in the rotation. I was optimistic he could.

- I AM a bit worried about FO's getting fetishistic about a single player (See MacPhail, Andy and Pie, Felix). However, Rizzo obviously saw his stock rise even further in SD.

All in all, though -- hard for me to see how this isn't Thed's first big "win" that I think everyone can agree on.

EDIT: Oh and BTW - yeah... I think there exists a very high potential that Prince is getting screwed here and Scott has to beg Milwaukee to re-offer something approximating the 5/100... Of course - the Crew has already bought A-Ram, so not sure they can still afford 5/100.

I'll piss myself laughing if he ends up going back hat-in-hand to Milwaukee. That 5/100 might be starting to look OK.

Did they offer arbitration? and if so can he still accept? That's what some guys did when the "market" was a bit less pleasant than hoped for.

EDIT: Oh and BTW - yeah... I think there exists a very high potential that Prince is getting screwed here and Scott has to beg Milwaukee to re-offer something approximating the 5/100... Of course - the Crew has already bought A-Ram, so not sure they can still afford 5/100.

Boras will still find a way to get Fielder his money, that much I'm sure of, there is no way Fielder signs for less money than Ryan Howard.

I'm with Jose - I'm a big Rizzo believer and I think he'll be at least a good 1B with the potential to be great. If the Padres devalued him that much because of his poor MLB showing, then I think they're crazy. Good building for the future move - Rizzo may not be a huge help this year, but he's a good bet to contribute a lot in 2013.

Already set at 1B: Yankees, Boston, Kansas City, White Sox, Detroit, Minnesota, Anaheim, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cubs, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego. Minnesota is the only AL team on there that doesn't have DH set to one degree or another and I don't believe that Fielder will sign somewhere to be a DH or that Morneau's health problems are likely to be made better by not playing the field.

Can't/won't pay for Fielder: Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Oakland, Mets, Pittsburgh, Houston. St. Louis could pay for Fielder but it seems very unlikely that they'd go back on their statement that they'd rather go forward with their current roster than take the Fielder consolation prize.

So that's 22 teams that are almost certainly not in the running whatsoever.

Toronto - Maybe, could jump-start contention hopes and take advantage of Bautista's prime
Baltimore - They've been in the mix for expensive free agents before and been beaten out, I know there hasn't been much noise from them about Fielder but I haven't heard any reason to rule them out
Texas - I don't really know much about Mitch Moreland, is he considered likely to be good going forward? Even if he isn't the Rangers have various other large salary commitments so unless things fall apart with Darvish they don't seem likely.
Seattle - Definite possibility with Ichiro!'s big contract expiring after this season, a lot of pressure of Zduriencik to show results soon, and a team desperately in need of offense
Washington - Doesn't seem likely for the reasons outlined in that recent thread, too much money committed or likely to be committed soon without being sure that the revenues will be there.
Miami - Hey, why not?
Milwaukee - I know Melvin has said that they have spent the money elsewhere already but if Fielder comes back asking if that 5/$100 is still available would they really say no?
Dodgers - Doubtful since the sale won't go through until the spring.

So that's Toronto, Seattle, Miami, and maybe Baltimore that are still possibilities to give Fielder the big contract he wants and Milwaukee waiting in the wings to see if he has to settle for much less. Maybe Texas is in that boat too. If I had to lay odds I'd say he goes to Seattle because they're the only team that seems desperate enough, financially stable enough, and also likely to make a potentially bad decision on a huge contract.

Edit: Plus Carlos Pena is still out there and could easily be snapped up by one of those likely suitors who just says "eff it, this is taking too long, the contract is risky, and we need to fill our hole and move on"

I love Rizzo. He struggled in the Majors last year but tore it up at AAA and is still very young.

Well, he didn't just struggle; he was godawful (51 OPS+ in 153 PAs). That said, I love this trade.

EDIT: Even ignoring the small sample size, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Rizzo's probably not the sort of hitter who'd be helped much by Petco.

Sort of called this a couple of weeks ago, after the Alonso/Latos deal.

Sort of called this a couple of weeks ago, after the Alonso/Latos deal.

Yeah - I think everyone had this one as coming... What's surprising though -- the talk at that time centered around Garza (with perhaps more than Rizzo going the other way). What's surprising here is that the price was really just Cashner -- whom I still thought might have a decent mid-rotation future, but most think has an upside approximating Kyle Farnsworth -- and what amounts to a lottery ticket.

I was holding out hope Jack Z would bring him over to the Mariners. Ah well.

Im like this trade, the other guy the cubs sent to SD i had never heard of before, plus i feel like cashner is never going to be fully healthy, and if he isnt starting is worth much less.

That said what is the cubs rotation right now? Garza, Dempster, Wood, Wells?, +????

Would Fielder consider a one year deal, so that the Dodgers and Mets might be back in the bidding?

As Fiekder's game screams "old player's skills", if I was Boras i'd want to get a long-term deal right now (by which I mean 5 minutes before the season starts).

That said what is the cubs rotation right now? Garza, Dempster, Wood, Wells?, +????

Volstad.

Washington or Seattle seem like the best bets for Fielder. The Werth deal might affect the Nats' willingness to shell out for another big deal, I suppose, but as some Nats' fans here have noted, Fielder is a nice fit.

Washington or Seattle

So he's going to Washington one way or the other?

Byrnes may be a great GM, but this is a pretty poor return for someone of Rizzo's pedigree. Even if Rizzo never learns to take a walk and becomes a poor man's Richie Sexson, you'd think that his 2011 alone would bring more than Cashner. Kicking in a decent-ish reliever with a chance of making the majors just makes things worse.

Looks like even the Padres can't win every trade.

Would Fielder consider a one year deal, so that the Dodgers and Mets might be back in the bidding?

Well, anything's possible. But unless there is truly no market for him now, I think waiting a year would be foolish. Even if he has a big year, teams are going to say, "Well, that's great and all. That was why I was willing to overpay for your dotage. But now one more prime season is gone, which makes paying your age 36 season that much less attractive."

What astounds me is that Cates also looks to be a much more valuable prospect than Na (who I had never heard of... he looks like a punchless OF) so it's even better for the Cubs than Rizzo vs. Cashner straight up.

I am probably the biggest Cashner believer here and even I am pretty pumped about this move.

All of the sudden the long-term outlook for this team looks a lot better. Rizzo is clearly a big piece for the team to build around, the kind of top prospect that the Cubs just didn't have after Castro. And hell, the Cubs haven't had a top hitting prospect since...........

So this is exciting. Cashner has upside but even if he was looking to be a big part of the rotation, it's a price worth paying. Top offensive threat > mid-rotation starter every day of the week and twice on doubleheader days.

Big-time yay.

I apologize. Thought it was probably too snarky when I wrote it anyway, but it's Friday, so whatever.

This creepy weather is making us all grumpy.


I think this is a pretty interesting trade for the Cubs. And probably the official end of whatever minor chance remained that they'd sign Prince Fielder.

I would have thought that no matter how good a prospect he is, .141 in 49 ML games doesn't sound like a very effective block to signing Fielder. Sign Prince, let the kid blossom, then maybe turn him around or switch him somewhere. I suppose it would factor in, but I wouldn't have interpreted it as an end.


Lastly, I was wondering if he was related to Mike Rizzo, but I find no evidence on the tubes of such a thing.

Boras openly dismissed any talk of a shorter term deal

Milwaukee is out unless Prince is willing for deferred money

Brewers budget is tapped

Just noticed that this actually fills up the Cubs' 40-man roster.

Even if Rizzo never learns to take a walk and becomes a poor man's Richie Sexson, you'd think that his 2011 alone would bring more than Cashner.

Tucson. The ZiPS translation to Petco was nothing special.

Sexson's a not-unreasonable comp, actually.

-- MWE

Would Fielder consider a one year deal, so that the Dodgers and Mets might be back in the bidding?

If it's a one-year deal, the Cubs might be in the bidding.

Very nice to see.

The trade would only seem to make sense if the Padres are higher on Cashner than folks here are just as they are clearly higher on Alonso (or lower on Rizzo) than folks here. ZiPS gave him a pretty good projection (albeit in a mix of starting and relieving so maybe seeing him as a bit above-average). But I'm certainly fine with picking up a quality prospect like Rizzo and let somebody else roll the injury dice with Cashner.

On Prince ... I'm not seeing him making Howard money unless it's in name only with heavily deferred salary. Pujols only got Howard (AAV) money because the Angels swooped in at the last minute. Nobody's swooping on Prince I don't think. I won't rule out something like 3/$75 I suppose but I don't know who gives it to him. I think a return to Milwaukee is a reasonable bet at this point but the Nats or Rangers are probably the best bets.

But I also have to agee with HW that it's hard to see how Milw could make a Prince contract work for them. They've already got ARam structure 6/10/16(+4). Gallardo's buyout has a 6/8/12 structure. Backload Prince's contract and the 2014 payroll blows out entirely. They do have money coming off but it's hard to imagine they won't want to sign at least one of Greinke/Marcum after this season. So I've probably talked myself out of Prince to Milwaukee.

Not that it matters much but this also ends the dream of LaHair as the next Brian Daubach or something. It reduces (but hardly eliminates) the chances of a Garza trade -- at the least, you'd think we'd have to get a mediocre ML starter back as part of the package but that wouldn't seem to leave enough room for the prospects we'd want in such a trade.

Anyway, we now have 3 spots on the "next good Cub team" filled in Rizzo, Castro and Jackson -- not that it's guaranteed Rizzo or Jackson will actually be any good but it's hardly guaranteed thee will be a "next good Cub team." :-)

From over at Fangraphs, Rizzo's super-sunny Petco projection for 2012: .236/.312/.425, from Bill James.
Rizzo's 23 in August, IIRC.

This is getting pretty interesting for Prince, no? Given the news of recent weeks, I didn't expect the Cubs to get Fielder, but you never say never until the ink is dried on the dotted line. With the Cubs out, that leaves Washington, Toronto, and who, Seattle? I'm anxious to see who blinks first. I don't think Prince is getting close to what he wants.

The word in D.C. now is that Boras is talking to the Lerners, not Mike Rizzo. If a deal can be worked out that wouldn't hamstring the Nationals towards extending Zimmerman's contract or getting a center fielder, I think the Nats might agree to it. With the Wizards and Redskins struggling and the Capitals perceived as underachieving, signing Fielder could pay off in Washington...both in the won-loss standings and at the gate.

Not that it matters much but this also ends the dream of LaHair as the next Brian Daubach or something.

I'd bet Rizzo starts the season in AAA. He looks to me like he's still got quite a bit to learn - 25% K-rate in the minors, not that many walks, and a translated AAA line of 313/454 - add on the MLB numbers, and he wasn't good last year. (I mean, it was a good year for a 21-year-old prospect, but it wasn't a year that convinces you he will be a quality major league first baseman in April.) Starting out Rizzo in AAA also gives you a chance to evaluate LaHair as an everyday player.

Epstein in Boston rarely committed to a young player unless that player projected to be league average or better. Obviously the Cubs in 2012 will be quite different from any of Epstein's previous clubs, and if they think Rizzo's development is best served by playing in the majors, they'll do that, but I think it's more likely than not that he'll begin the year in Iowa.

It reduces (but hardly eliminates) the chances of a Garza trade -- at the least, you'd think we'd have to get a mediocre ML starter back as part of the package but that wouldn't seem to leave enough room for the prospects we'd want in such a trade.

The one report of a Garza trade negotiation I saw was that they asked the Yankees for Montero, Banuelos, and Betances. This fits with my read - the Cubs are willing to trade Garza, but only in exchange for lots of top talent. They've put him on the market so that if someone gets desperate for a good starter, they can exploit that desperation, but they're not trading him just to whoever bids the most. If they got a can't-turn-it-down package, they could spend a bit more to get some mediocre pitchers off the FA market or in little trades.

The one report of a Garza trade negotiation I saw was that they asked the Yankees for Montero, Banuelos, and Betances.

Yikes.

Obviously the Cubs in 2012 will be quite different from any of Epstein's previous clubs, and if they think Rizzo's development is best served by playing in the majors, they'll do that, but I think it's more likely than not that he'll begin the year in Iowa.

And in the NL, it's pretty tough to have both a Bryan LaHair and an Anthony Rizzo on your 25-man roster.

From over at Fangraphs, Rizzo's super-sunny Petco projection for 2012: .236/.312/.425, from Bill James.
Rizzo's 23 in August, IIRC.

Methinks Cubs fans don't realize at 1.000 OPS in the PCL is closer to a .800 OPS in the international league.

Boras ability to squeeze the baseball people out of the discussion is impressive

Good management knows to honor role definition

But all owners like to believe they are great negotiators

Horsehockey

So the Padres turned Adrian Gonzalez into a reliever with health issues, a guy putting up unimpressive numbers at AA, a 4th OF type, and Eric Patterson.

Yeah, Jed Hoyer is one sorry-ass little mother****er.

I have a hard time believing the Blue Jays get Fielder. I'd love to see it happen but AA and Paul Beeston have discussed the "folly" of tying up so much money in one player and it doesn't seem like their kind of move. Fielder would allow the Blue Jays to leverage a Lind/Edwin platoon at 1B/DH with each capable of "contributing" in a pinch at their former positions.

Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 07, 2012 at 04:07 AM (#4031046)

Boras ability to squeeze the baseball people out of the discussion is impressive

Good management knows to honor role definition

But all owners like to believe they are great negotiators

Horsehockey

- correctamundo - especially the part about owners thinking they have ANY idea how to negotiate with boras. see carlos beltran and drayton mclane. the ONLY contract drayton mclane negotiated in which he got a good deal was roger clemens 2004. the rest of his negotiations were for sh*t

- also, about rizzo -
see brett wallace. who was supposed to be a "pure" hitter...

I still see Fielder going to Texas. They are going to be awash in money with their new TV deal, they don't really have a ton of money tied up - just Michael Young ($16 mill til 2013), Adrian Beltre ($17.5 mill til 2015) and whatever they pay Yu Darvish and possible extensions for Napoli, Kinsler and Hamilton. They should be operating as a big market club and I think they'll start throwing their weight around.

If not, Seattle seems like the most likely bet. That's a good city for vegans.

He'll still get his money. It only takes two teams with interest to drive up the price. Sometimes only one. I say 6/$120.

- also, about rizzo -
see brett wallace. who was supposed to be a "pure" hitter...

Rizzo's hit better, with more power, at younger ages in the minors than Wallace did.

By dumping Gonzalez, SD freed up money to get a FA, if they choose.

By dumping Gonzalez, SD freed up money to get a FA, if they choose.

Okay, I'll start the timer... now.

"Methinks Cubs fans don't realize at 1.000 OPS in the PCL is closer to a .800 OPS in the international league."

We do. And an .800 OPS in a 21-year-old season in the IL would be pretty darn exciting.

We do. And an .800 OPS in a 21-year-old season in the IL would be pretty darn exciting.

Also, that.

If the online minor league equivalency calculator is correct, Rizzo's 2011 .331/.404/.652 in Tucson translates to .278/.337/.517 on the Cubs. I would be more than fine with that from a 22/23 year-old who can field the position well.

We do. And an .800 OPS in a 21-year-old season in the IL would be pretty darn exciting.

Not to mention that the underlying premise is highly questionable anyway. Last season there were 15 players with at least 200 PA in the PCL who had a 1000 OPS. There were 47 players with at least 200 PA who posted an 800 OPS in the IL. I know one has to discount raw numbers in the PCL, but VA's assertion seems ... somewhat imprecise.

In a further note, Rizzo was one of 3 out of that pool of 62 players who was in his age 21 season , the other two being Brett Lawrie and Jesus Montero. Actually, those were the only three players in the top 100 hitters in either league who were in their age 21 season (none were younger).