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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 13, 2021Cubs, Padres Discussed Eric Hosmer Trade Last Summer
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: December 13, 2021 at 12:36 AM | 10 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6057219)FWIW, Fangraphs has them as the Cubs #2 and #10.
Their write-ups are a reminder of how empty scout speak can be. Alcantara is expected to develop "elite" power; he has "one of the highest ceilings of any prospect his age." But still projects to average ML production. #4 James Triantos, just 18.5 years old, "swings with ferocity", "vaporizes mistakes", has a "very exciting hit/power combination" and will likely "rocket" through the low minors because he's "dangerous in the box." After all of that breathlessness, it's still a (probably optimistic) FV of 50 and they say that, if he doesn't learn to walk, he'll probably be in the range of Kyle Farmer (turning 30, career OPS+ 80, 1.8 WAR/-1.2 WAA) to Josh Harrison (average hitter but just a 127 ISO).
To be clear, "average" and Kyle Farmer and certainly Josh Harrison are all "very good" outcomes for a prospect, well above-average return. It's the breathless terminology I could do without. I don't expect scouts to have a crystal ball, in fact I'm confident that even God couldn't be more specific at Triantos than "somewhere between no ML PAs and 40 WAR." I'd just prefer "hit rookie league pitching like Kyle Farmer did" rather than "vaporizes."
I've let my stathead subscription lapse but a couple of months ago, I looked at a few debut years and then number of those players who reached 8 WAR in their first 7 "seasons" or so. If somebody wants to re-run that, it would be great because I don't remember how many it was per year. But it wasn't a lot. An FV of 50 seems to suggest these folks will put up about 12 WAR during their pre-FA period -- I'm not sure that's more than 10 guys a year much less that the Cubs have 5-6 of them in their system right now. If FV=50 means "this player has a 50% chance of reaching this level" then it's 3 guys and that's not unrealistic. The Cubs' "problem" is that #2 through 6 are all under 19.5 years old and so likely at least 3 years away from fulfilling their ML average-ness. What we hope of course is that at least one of them turns into a 70 over the next 1-2 years.
Fangraphs being fangraphs, I assume that somewhere they have evaluated how accurate their FV scale has been. Anybody got a link?
So most days we should be able to roll out a lineup with 4-5 decent hitters, about half the time we'll have a good starter on the mound and then the game will go to hell in the 7th.
#3: It's unfair to call him replacement level. He'll be there soon enough but he's been a consistent 1-WAR player. He's a poor man's Mitch Moreland who was paid like a poor man's Chris Davis -- not a good combo but a better combo than the actual Chris Davis! While nobody pursues a player of Hosmer's quality and despite our continuing belief that the minors are filled with non-embarrassing 1Bs, there are always guys like Hosmer, Moreland, Mark Reynolds finding jobs in their early 30s. The mistake isn't employing Hosmer now, it was giving him a nice, 8-year contract 4 years ago.
2018 -.1
2019 -.3
2020 .9
2021 .0
That looks like a replacement player to me. bWAR likes him a little better, but not enough to matter much.
But is that any more economically efficient that simply going straight to the free agent market? You havent mentioned this but isnt it imperative to first look at the cost of that before picking up some dead weight like HOsmer?
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