With lots of holes, the Cubs have lots of options to demonstrate their intellect. The only truly guaranteed spots on offense are Hoerner, Happ (but a pending FA so could get traded), Suzuki, Wisdom and Morel (but maybe just in a rover role). Gomes will also be back given he was signed for 2 years but that's not much to get excited about. The rotation is pretty well set in Stroman, Hendricks (final year), Sampson and some combo of Wesneski, Thompson, Assad, Kilian. No doubt at least one will turn up hurt and Hendricks might be done either way. The bullpen will be your standard anonymous mix but probably only 2-3 spots fully nailed down.

They could resign Contreras. If they did, they might give him 80 starts at C and 50 at DH ... or they might give him 50 at C, 100 split between DH and 1B ... or they might just make him a 1B. If they don't re-sign him then C is definitely a problem. I'm not sure what the situation is with Amaya -- he needs to get healthy but I don't know if he has options left but he can't hit anyway. Still, if he's out of options, I assume he'll get the call and the Cubs will probably have a 3-C roster (esp if Contreras returns but maybe even Gomes, Higgins, Amaya).

1B is a gaping hole. If no Contreras or Willson stays at C, this could be Wisdom. He looked terrible there to my eye but maybe with a full offseason/spring to work on it, he can be decent. But they might go for Josh Bell or see what the Nats want for Voit or (eek?) sign Wil Myers.

Leaving the question of what they want to do with Morel. He didn't look good at any of his positions this year although he seems to have the skills to handle any of them if he was just left there. But his value is probably maximized if he can be a rover. Anyway, if Wisdom is back at 3B then, if he's ill-suited to roving, Morel probably gets the starting 2B job; if Wisdom is moved to 1B then I'll guess Morel lands at 3B.

Everybody needs a CF but there aren't enough to go around. I'm sure the Cubs would love it if Morel could handle CF but he looked pretty rough out there.

Basically more of the same. The Cubs only had two qualified batters this year -- Contreras just missed but Hoerner barely made it. It's sort of pointless to talk about who they'll sign since probably "intelligent spending" means not paying for a full-time 2B when you can get a 450 PA 2B for half that price. It's "if the Cubs have this sort of mix, Morel will be full-time here; with that mix, he'll be full-time there; with yet another mix, he'll be 40% here, 40% there and 20% over there; or with yet another mix, he'll be 30/20/50" ... So my best guesses on what the Cubs will do

a) let Contreras go
b) Bell/Myers/Voit/similar for 1B
c) a solid 400-500 PA 2B but not a real starter, sharing with Morel
d) OF rotation of Happ-Suzuki-Davis-Morel-body
e) Wisdom-Morel at 3B
f) 2-3 vet relievers (Cubs seem to like them)
g) maybe a "big money" FA starter in the range of Hendricks-Stroman

Hoyer has been pimping this "intelligent spending" line for years, so it's a completely worthless soundbite from him.

As far as holes ... basically everything except SP, SS, C, and LF, right? And the C's time with the team (as well as the LF's, actually) might be at an end. We can hope that Suzuki gets better and that Morel sticks and that Hoerner isn't a one-year wonder. But this still looks like an offense that needs to be more or less entirely rebuilt to me, as well as the annual full bullpen rebuild. It was very nice that they had a good second half, but this doesn't look like a team that's anywhere close yet, to me.

For a team that is seemingly in a rebuild the Miley, Suzuki, Stroman deals seemed odd. Stroman can't help post - rebuild. Suzuki, they paid a lot of money for an unknown quantity there. Miley, paid a guy $10 million who already had a broken wing. If you look at their payroll it's still pretty high for a rebuilding team.

I'm sympathetic to trying to put a decent team on the field, but they seem neither fish nor fowl to me. If I had to bet, I think they will tear down more. I could see signing Contreras for 6-7 years. That makes sense. The problem is most of the rest of the guys you might try to unload don't have much value.

Unless the owners open up the spigots I think they just keep winding down salaries

Walt, no mention of Madrigal? I know he's been hurt and didn't even hit this year but he's only 25.

I don't think it's anywhere near as bleak as you guys think it is. This line-up can definitely contend in the Central:
C) Contreras
1B) Mervis
2B) Hoerner
SS) Correa/Turner/Bogaerts/Swanson
3B) Wisdom
LF) Happ
CF) Morel/B. Davis
RF) Suzuki
DH) Reyes/Rotating
A bench of Morel/Davis, McKinstry, Higgins, Gomes. With Velasquez, Madrigal, Bote, Rivas, Canario to provide depth.

A rotation built from Hendricks, Stro, Smyly, Steele, Wesnescki, Sampson, Assad and possibly a FA looks pretty competitive, and a bullpen that starts with Thompson, Alzolay and the guys who don't make the rotation along with Hughes and Rodriguez might not quite match the Brewers, but could definitely contend for the Central.

I'd set FA priorities as
1) Willson!
2) One of the four Shortstops
3) A front line starter (Rodon?)
I think one of those gets you to .500. Two of those gets you competitive in the Central. All three makes you the favorite in the Central.

Not what we're talking about here, but a starting rotation at Iowa next year of Killian, Brown, Wicks, Herz and Espinoza would have me very interested in their games.

Well I'm no math whiz, but I think "intelligent spending" is better than "dumb spending."

Basically everything in #3 is wrong. Well done! No one is signing a 30yr injury prone catcher to a 6 year deal. No way they're tearing down more either, for a lot of reasons.

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Next year, the Cubs only have about $90mil + arb (let's say less than $15mil, most to Happ) in payroll, which includes $22mil of dead money for Heyward. They could easily double that if they wanted (they probably shouldn't do that all in 1 year). Most people seem to expect them to sign one of the big SS FAs and likely a toppish SP (say like Rodon or Senga; basically another guy in the same salary ballpark as Stroman).

I think #5 is much closer to the roster than #1, but I'm now starting to think it's extremely unlikely they even try to re-sign Contreras. Probably another Gomes type is in our future to pair with the current Gomes. I think they can go into next year with Wisdom/Mervis as a 1b platoon, so they prioritize money elsewhere. If Davis can come up sooner rather than later and not totally suck, that'll go a long way in the OF, but they probably aren't going to spend any significant money out there (most of the prospects are OF types) unless they sign Happ to an extension (I wouldn't have thought that possible before or during the year, but now I'd say it's 50/50; if they don't, they'll trade him this offseason but still wouldn't sign a new FA to a big deal).

The rotation is pretty well set in Stroman, Hendricks (final year), Sampson and some combo of Wesneski, Thompson, Assad, Kilian.

Sampson is the guy least likely to repeat what he did or get a spot; unless he's traded you missed the most obvious guy - and the only one IMO guaranteed a spot - in Steele. I don't think they can count on Hendricks, so we should expect a SP signing. They'll throw some money at the pen, but no big deals there - this is one area they consistently have been good at lately.

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So to summarize, my guesses/predictions are

C) Gomes/Gomes-clone
1B) Mervis/Wisdom/Rivas
2B) Hoerner
SS) FA (in this order: Correa/Turner/Bogaerts/Swanson)
3B) Morel/Wisdom
LF) Happ
CF) TBD (Ortega/Velazquez/something similar) to eventually Davis or Canario.
RF) Suzuki
DH) Rotation of other guys not starting, including Madrigal (I'm pretty sure Reyes will be DFA with that arb number, unless he agrees to something a bit lower).

That also covers most of the bench, but Bote could be in the corner IF/DH mix too (or just sent down again). Higgins could be back since he can C and do more, but I bet he's gone.

Rotation: Stroman/FA/Steele/Hendricks (I wouldn't count on him at all, due to health or ineffectiveness though he'll be given plenty of chances)/other (Wesneski [the guy who I predict gets the 4th most starts next year], then Assad, Killian, Sampson, etc).

I could also see the Cubs try and make a bigger trade for a SP or better bat, not that I have any ideas who (pipe dream of course is Ohtani, but not gonna happen) that would mean some of that SP depth and OF prospects (and maybe Happ) out the door.

I'm guessing they'll end up around 85 wins and in the WC race. Which could mean a midseason trade of sorts, but probably not a significant one unless they're signed for more years/are immediately extended.

Help me where I was wrong ?

1. Stroman is gone before the Cubs truly contend yes/no? He's a fine mid rotation pitcher but the cubs paid a lot for that. And if he can reclaim former glory, he'll opt out.
2. Broken down Wade Miley was a good move for a rebuilding team yes/no
3. Suzuki was a big bet that basically didn't deliver. Yes/no. If no what do you think his surplus value is on the contract right now?

On Contreras - maybe they don't sign him to a long term deal but Hoyer kapparently wants to. Certainly having him accept the QO is good yes/no? A medium term contract is good ? Yes/no? If the answer is - cut him loose, the market for catching is disastrous - how do you make the playoffs now ?

Call me crazy but a 90 million payroll starting point for a sinking 88 loss team seems high to me. It's completely reasonable to expect further cutting. Even Hoyer says trusting the second half turnaround isn't a smart play.

The cardinals are better next year as their prospects arrive , the pirates are better next year and the brewers are probably the same. Reds - they are a mess but no worse than this year. So schedule will be harder than this year.

If you look around the league, the d-backs are better, giants are better, so two additional wild card wannabes.

I'm not sure I see the value of trying to win 85 games

The same discussion is happening on Cardinal boards that the ownership will finally add 50 million to payroll. Not going to happen. The teams in the central have made a pact to keep a cap on payroll. Cards are at 175 heading to 130 and all they need is a catcher.

It really depends on your definition of when they can be competitive. Looking at all 32 teams, and assuming that they are all willing to spend at least 120 mil (roughly league average) to be competitive, the ONLY team in baseball I see having a problem with putting a + .500 team on the field is maybe the Angels. So any signing that they do that is past 2023 is a player who they think can compete.

The really silly thing is thinking that teams need 4 years to be competitive, that is not the truth unless they really blew their spending. Every team in MLB can make a wild card spot inside of two years if things fall right, and they make good decisions. As we have seen over the past 20 to 30 years, it's the exact same teams who are competitive,(more or less) this isn't indicative of money or anything, it's indicative or organizational strength. Outside of the Astros, no other team has tore down their organization and rebuilt it from scratch to be competitive year in year and out, and that is because the people tearing it down didn't learn from their previous mistakes.

If the Cubs make the right decisions, or the Reds or any team... they are wild card contenders inside of two years. It's really that simple. So any contract that the Cubs have past 2023 is a player who is theoretically on their next post season team.
(and they actually aren't that far off from being competitive next year either)

1. Stroman is gone before the Cubs truly contend yes/no? He's a fine mid rotation pitcher but the cubs paid a lot for that. And if he can reclaim former glory, he'll opt out.
2. Broken down Wade Miley was a good move for a rebuilding team yes/no
3. Suzuki was a big bet that basically didn't deliver. Yes/no. If no what do you think his surplus value is on the contract right now?

1. Depends on what you mean by "truly contend". They have holes to fill and I'm not really optimistic, but with some smarts and some luck, they could certainly contend for the NL Central next year. And if they don't, he's a potentially pretty good trade chip at the deadline.
2. Why not? It didn't cost them anything but money, which they have in excess. And if he turned out to have something left, he's a decent trade piece at the deadline. It didn't work out, but what's the problem with the thought process?
3. This seems completely at odds with your thought process re: Stroman. Suzuki definitely is signed long enough to contribute to the next "true contender" on any window. He wasn't great this year, but that's just in hindsight. Indeed, you thought he was basically a sure thing at the time ("I, for one, would like to see the Angels finally prioritize hitting over pitching and go after this guy. How could they fail to make the playoffs with him added to their lineup?"), so it's pretty silly of you to take the opposite view now.

Your thinking here seems strongly influenced by their total payroll. But so what? They're not spending near the money that they could if they wanted to - in fact, they said over the summer that they were below budget and would be rolling over their unused payroll to next year. It's not a factor - it's not like they're hamstringing themselves with contracts that will interfere with the rebuild. In fact, the opposite - a big chunk is legacy contracts that are coming off the books in the next couple years anyway (Heyward and Hendricks mostly, who made $36 million between them in 2022).

Basically, yeah, you're wrong about everything because your entire perspective is based on a faulty assumption, that the money they're spending is a problem.

I find baseball fandom more fun when there's unintelligent spending in the FA market. So thumbs down to Hoyer.

Not a Cubs fan, but the number of teams saying "We just need a #1 SP like Rodon, one of the top SS, a CF or C, and some relief pitching" is ridiculously high. It's going to be a wild winter as everyone tries to do about the same things and periodically freaks out as each major domino falls.

11. That was a tongue in cheek joke about how the angels always spend money on bats not arms. Good lord. Even a 10 year old could see that.

Oops forgot Steele. On Sampson, I had no faith either and he kept delivering. I think it would take a pretty disastrous spring for him to miss the opening day rotation if healthy.

1. Stroman is gone before the Cubs truly contend yes/no? He's a fine mid rotation pitcher but the cubs paid a lot for that. And if he can reclaim former glory, he'll opt out.

No. What is the difference between truly contend and contend these days? If I think the Cubs can realistically get to 85 wins next season with a good offseason, is that close enough to matter these days with the current playoff setup? Mid rotation undersells him, too.

2. Broken down Wade Miley was a good move for a rebuilding team yes/no

A big market team like the Cubs shouldn't have been rebuilding so soon after the last one. I hate everything about the Cardinals with every fiber of my being, but if they can manage to stay in the general area of contending year after year, the Cubs (with a bigger payroll) should also be able to. Regardless, Miley was a lottery ticket, and one who's salary was virtually irrelevant for the Cubs. It didn't work, no big deal. It didn't prevent any other moves. His unavailability gave the Cubs more innings they had to fill internally, all of which out performed what Miley did do the little he did when healthy.

3. Suzuki was a big bet that basically didn't deliver. Yes/no. If no what do you think his surplus value is on the contract right now?

Suzuki missed 50 games with injuries and still put up 2 WAR. Sure, I wish he had a better year, but I see no reason to write him off or consider that deal a failure. Perhaps he's overpaid, but considering the Cubs are spending way below their ability that overpayment isn't hurting or hindering anything they want to do.

On Contreras - maybe they don't sign him to a long term deal but Hoyer kapparently wants to. Certainly having him accept the QO is good yes/no? A medium term contract is good ? Yes/no? If the answer is - cut him loose, the market for catching is disastrous - how do you make the playoffs now ?

I think the Cubs would be fine if he accepted the QO, but all reports are the Cubs really aren't interested in signing him to a longer deal. Hoyer has talked about extending other guys (like Hoerner and maybe Happ, but not Contreras for some time). I would be happy with him accepting the QO, I think it would be very good for the Cubs. I worry about any deal longer than that though - he's 30, gets hurt every year, and doesn't have the best rep with handling pitchers. If he turns down the QO, that could work too, but the Cubs won't replace his bat with any other C option.

Call me crazy but a 90 million payroll starting point for a sinking 88 loss team seems high to me. It's completely reasonable to expect further cutting. Even Hoyer says trusting the second half turnaround isn't a smart play.

$90mil really is about the bare minimum any team should have. The Cubs had a $147mil payroll this year and $143mil last year; going into next year with only around $100mil means they could add another $100mil if they really wanted (I don't think they do, and I don't necessarily think they should just to say they did). Find a way to add 10-12 wins with the $60-70mil they can/should spend (they were spending $170+mil every year from '16 onward until these last 2), and then yes, you're in the WC race.

The cardinals are better next year as their prospects arrive , the pirates are better next year and the brewers are probably the same. Reds - they are a mess but no worse than this year. So schedule will be harder than this year.

I'll leave the Cards out for now*, but the Pirates finished 12 games behind the Cubs this year...I mean, I don't know what the point here is....but also the Cubs will be better next year. I don't want to hang too much of my hat on 2nd half stuff, but the reason the Cubs were so much better in the 2nd half than their first was the significant improvement in their rotation. Build on that, improve the offense...

I'm not sure I see the value of trying to win 85 games

You don't go from 74 wins to 94 wins overnight (usually that is; the Cubs did go from 73 to 97 from '14 to '15). Ideally you never have to work your way up from the 70 win group, as a Cards fan I would hope you agree, but you have to start somewhere. As a Cubs fan, it's obvious where the holes are, and this year a lot of those holes line up nicely with the FA market and the Cubs have a shitton of money to spend. So I am expecting them to try and get there. Even better if there is 95 wins and not just 85.

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If the Cubs make the right decisions, or the Reds or any team... they are wild card contenders inside of two years. It's really that simple. So any contract that the Cubs have past 2023 is a player who is theoretically on their next post season team.
(and they actually aren't that far off from being competitive next year either)

Exactly. Last offseason was year 1 for the Cubs; moving on from the old group and hopefully bottoming out as low as they would go - they've consistently said they didn't want to go through the long rebuild like last time; last year I couldn't see how they'd get there in 2 years or so, but after the way this year went with the things that did go right, I can absolutely see it now.

Not a Cubs fan, but the number of teams saying "We just need a #1 SP like Rodon, one of the top SS, a CF or C, and some relief pitching" is ridiculously high. It's going to be a wild winter as everyone tries to do about the same things and periodically freaks out as each major domino falls.

Totally agree. And the Cubs can absolutely #### this up. I just like their chances of getting those guys for various reasons more than the other teams in that same position (and yes, part of that is blind fan optimism). I do think the Cubs could be the biggest spender this year, which is both a good and a bad thing.

*They have more to replace than you're letting on here, and Goldschmidt and Arrenado aren't gonna put up 7.5+WAR again either (I'll take the under and Edman's total too).

$90mil really is about the bare minimum any team should have.

Ding, ding, ding. Any fan of a team that isn't at least spending 90mil on payroll, has nobody to blame for the teams inability to contend other than ownership. There is no team in baseball that couldn't afford a 90 mil payroll.

There's no team in baseball that couldn't afford 120 million