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Wednesday, September 27, 2023
The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the National League Central on Tuesday night, albeit not because they were able to beat the St. Louis Cardinals. Rather, the Brewers clinched the division crown after the Chicago Cubs blew a six-run lead against the Atlanta Braves in painful fashion.
The Cubs’ meltdown was capped by an error committed on a routine fly ball by outfielder Seiya Suzuki. It allowed two runs to score in the bottom of the eighth and turned a one-run Chicago lead into a one-run deficit.
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1. The Duke Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:19 PM (#6142435)What's the general feeling on Ross? I haven't watched enough games during his tenure, but he's seemed pretty uninspiring. Also, the man sure loves to put on the bunt in questionable scenarios.
He's zoomed right past Don Baylor and is approaching Mike Quade/Jim Essian level.
I'm very much on Team Bring Me His Head.
2017: top 3 of Zach Davies, Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson
2018: Chacin, Anderson, Junior Guerra
2019: Zach, Chase and Woody
2020: Covid
2021: Woody, Corbin, Freddy
2022: Corbin, Eric Lauer, Woody
2023: See 2021 with an assist from Wade Miley
FWIW
Ross is OK. Nothing brilliant, nothing disastrous. He kinda falls in love with a reliever rotation when it's hot then sticks with it too long. But it's hard to complain much about the pen or his management of it -- there's nobody out there you can claim as a consistently effective reliever prior to 2023 so that he and Hottovy have gotten so much out of them is impressive. Unfortunate they are falling apart at the wrong time. Still, regarding Ross, I suspect a lot of the success that he has had (and there's not been much) is due to Hottovy. He's the guy the Cubs need to keep.
Bunts? I'm not sure what the issue is supposed to be. The Cubs have just 15 sacs which is league average. Five are from Madrigal, a small player with good speed and a 78 OPS+ and another three from Mastrobuoni, a small player with even better speed and a 79 OPS+. There are another two from average sized, very speedy rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong who has unfortuntely started his career 0-11 with 6 Ks and 1 hard-hit ball. This is more Mark Belanger bunting than it is a problem.
Nico Hoerner has spent almost his entire career under Ross. He's a speedy, low-power, solid BA player ... he had just his first career sac bunt (in 1600 PA) this year. I was surprised and maybe even shocked that surely he'd have attempted a bunt hit that turned into a sac. I think it's safe to say Ross is not bunt-happy. Plus, if anything, I'd say he might be too reliant on the analytics so I'd be surprised he bunts in situations that the computer doesn't tell him is close to break even.
OK, so it's not just the heinous September that's tainting my view. I know their surge in the second half was not anticipated (hell, they were planning to sell at the deadline), but given where they were like four weeks ago, this showing paired with some of his moves seems like it'd be justification to hand Rossy a pink slip in November.
ESPN Stats & Info
@ESPNStatsInfo
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1h
The Cubs have now lost 5 games this month after holding a lead in the 8th inning or later.
That's tied for their most such losses in any single month over the last 50 seasons (June 1991 & September 1992).
How shocking depends how much that depends on "later" I suspect. The run environment with the Manfred Man is over 9 R/9 so holding a 1-run lead in the 10th or later is not actually expected. Now tonight when they had the lead after 7.5, 8.5 and 9.5 innings was a trainwreck. And I think that's the second time in the last week or so that they've blown a save 3 times in a game (same caveat about extras applies to the other one as well).
Anyway, setting aside the Manfred Man's impact on the late-inning record book aside, it's certainly been a terrible performance. They blew two 1-run saves at Cincy earlier, the one against AZ, these last 2. 4-9 down the stretch ain't gonna get it down. And I believe the Cubs lose all tie-breakers. Oh well, still tied with the Marlins, still hope.
But still, today's loss ... hit by Acuna, SB, hit by Albies ... twice. Hardly the most embarrassing way to lose. Coming into today, for his career, Albies has hit 408/462/733 against the Cubs (133 PA).
These last two losses have been pretty terrible, but I find the series losses to the Rockies (in Coors) and Pirates far more aggravating. They still held their own fate in their hands coming into this week, but having to rely on series winds against the best team in baseball and then the hottest team in baseball was a far less desirable scenario than just smacking around the inferior teams they faced this month.
Walt's bunting numbers are well-taken - and it's really just been a couple of annoying "Oh come on..." instances (both of which may be PCA PAs, now that I think about it).
*My* main beef has been Ross falling in love with chaff... Tauchman - granted, he homered last night - hasn't really hit since July so even with the injuries, he shouldn't be the regular CF against RHP any more. Mastroboni has had a nice week, and injuries forced the hand to some extent -- but... Why not more Morel at 3B? Why not just let PCA's glove fly free in CF? Hell, with the injuries - you could still waste DH on Tauchman if you so choose. Plus - people forget Hosmer/Mancini and the DH drek pre-Morel. You say "What other options did he have?" - I say "@##!! ANYTHING else".
I also feel like I want to lay some blame on him for the clearly gassed and flailing bullpen. Yeah - it's late, anyone's best relievers are gassed... but - Ross had the advantage of a traditional rotation that probobably goes 6+ as often as anyone.
They do.
Acuna would have immediately stolen second to put runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs.
There was no good solution to the situation. Even a great hitter like Acuna has a 60% chance of making an out. I think they did the right thing.
I think the implicit contrast is between organized crime groups fighting each other over turf or something, although unless the writers grew up in 1920s Chicago, not sure where that tendency actually comes from.
Meh, the numbers are lower -- despite what lots of people not in Chicago think -- but actually, turf wars make up the lion's share of "senseless violence" today, too.... and well, gangs are also organized crime...
How many of those fighting in WW2 were true Nazi believers, and how many were powerless 18-year-olds fed into the war machine?
I see many online rooting for Russian deaths right now, and mostly I feel bad for Russian 18-year-olds getting fed into the war machine.
There was shouting in the street
and the sound of running feet
and I asked someone who said
Bout a HUNDRED cops are dead
I want to as well .... plus how Smyly went from "guy we can no longer trust to start" to "high-leverage reliever." It seems like Ross relies heavily on the same guys, runs them out there in every close game. And maybe there's truth to that (my "brain" says so) but when I look at the numbers on GR and IP:
Alzolay 57 63 (some time on IL)
Merryweather 68 70
Leiter 68 64
Fulmer 58 57 (some time on IL)
Palencia 26 26 (in about 2 months)
Cuas 26 23 (in about 2 months)
That's 6 guys on a pace for about 65 appearances, 13 a month, about 1 IP per appearance, etc. If anything, that looks like regimented balance. I recall Adbert had one stint of three games in a row but otherwised I wouldn't be surprised if that almost never happened. Maybe things have gotten out of hand a bit down the stretch with all these 1-run games and the fear of blowing any game.
Still I suspect it's more that Alzolay had never been a reliever much less the closer before. Merryweather had just 53 career IP. Leiter didn't pitch in the majors in 2019-21, was meh last year. Palencia is a kid. Cuas had 38 career IP coming into 2023. So Fulmer was the only guy with a reasonable track record as an effective reliever.
Somewhat like the Hosmer and Mancini situation, the bullpen is the hand Ross was given to play. There have been plenty of times I've groaned "why are you bringing in this guy now?" but the reality was usually that I'd have probably groaned the same thing no matter which reliever he brought in. At the end of the day, Ross/Hottovy/nerds have provided a pretty balanced and typical workload for a group of fungible relievers and, at the end of the day, produced an overall average bullpen performancer (per WAA) all at a cost of $6M ($2 M of that Boxberger) plus several slots at league min.
BTW - speaking of Cuas... Nelson Velazquez has rather quietly posted 14 HR for the Royals since the trade. 232/304/612(!)
I not-jokingly called it the Soler II trade - and Valzquez looks like he's on track... Cuas, though, does not look like he's going to be as valuable as Wade Davis was for a rental.
So yeah, you know what?
You can bring me Jed Hoyer's head, too... Not a whole lot to his track record that makes me want to keep him around and some really dumb moves that I could scream about.
ALL of them.
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