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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Curt Schilling misses out on Hall of Fame, but he’ll get in next year - The Boston Globe

I very, very rarely link to Shaughnessy. He’s a decent writer but has really bad takes on just about everything. I link to him now because his view on Schilling is representative of the views of quite a few writers.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 22, 2020 at 05:42 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: curt schilling, hall of fame

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   1. villageidiom Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5918154)
I'm not sure at this point if Schilling would rather make the Hall of Fame next year, or wear a badge of honor that he didn't make the Hall of Fame because he stood his ground.

Mind you, there's a real chance that he doesn't make the Hall of Fame next year because of nothing to do with standing his ground. Like, you can take his public statements out of the picture and the person who remains arguably wouldn't get the votes to be a Hall of Famer anyway. I'm just saying even if that were the case, he would be eager to use the notion that his public statements are what's keeping him out, and I am not sure that he wouldn't prefer that.
   2. The Duke Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:51 AM (#5918174)
I think he will need two years. The 10 person ballot thing exhausted itself this year. I doubt there are many ballots where schilling was #11 if any. The argument that he borderline is, well, amazing. He’s maybe not a first ballot guy but he’s a very solid hall of famer absent all the controversy.

I’m not sure there are more votes for him from the existing voters and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes two years or doesn’t get in at all. There’s a lot of thin-skinned writers out there. The massive change in the voting electorate is probably helping and he could slide in simply on the haters retiring over two years and new guys who are more sabr-inclined. Shaugnnessy says he won’t vote so compared to this year, that’s a win for schilling.
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5918186)
I think he will need two years.


I'd be stunned if he didn't get in next year. Larry Walker had a hell of a lot more ground to make up, and the voters responded to that. The only thing that could keep him out next year is his own mouth, which he's well aware of.
   4. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5918188)
Mind you, there's a real chance that he doesn't make the Hall of Fame next year because of nothing to do with standing his ground.

Not really. He's overwhelmingly likely to make it in next year & the only way he doesn't is due to controversies around his politics. I looked into BBWAA voting patterns years ago. Two things really help Schilling: 1) on years with a weak crop of new candidates, members of the backlog typically rise up, 2) people atop the backlog typically rise the most. Next year, Schilling is atop the backlog in a year with a weak crop of new candidates. He only needs a small chunk of those not voting for him to start voting for him.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5918191)
I'd be stunned if he didn't get in next year.

Agree. History suggests that once a player gets to, or near, 70%, a bunch of the "No" voters say, "Huh, I guess he is a HoFer" and vote for him. Nobody wants to be the guy that keeps someone at 74.9%.
   6. Zonk Hasn't Learned his Aspirational Lesson Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5918197)
Chances that he, Bonds, and Clemens all go next year?

Or - is there some gaggle of voters who are maybe determined to make Bonds/Clemens wait until the 10th year....

I'd be good with that class.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5918201)
Chances that he, Bonds, and Clemens all go next year?


Bonds and Clemens aren't going in next year. I seriously doubt they make it in their 10th year either. They made almost no progress this year, when there wasn't the kind of ballot pressure there had been in the past.
   8. Zonk Hasn't Learned his Aspirational Lesson Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:13 AM (#5918206)
Bonds and Clemens aren't going in next year. I seriously doubt they make it in their 10th year either. They made almost no progress this year, when there wasn't the kind of ballot pressure there had been in the past.


I wonder if the sign-stealing scandal makes an impact, though...
   9. bookbook Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:33 PM (#5918556)
He should have gone in 5 years ago. Then we wouldn’t have to think about him anymore.
   10. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5918560)
I wonder if the sign-stealing scandal makes an impact, though...


I can't see how it would make a positive impact. People are pissed off about the sign-stealing which is just revving up the "I hate all cheaters" sentiment. And since Bonds and Clemens are "known cheaters" if anything this is just making people hate them even more.

Schilling gets in next year barring excessive stupidity on his part (which, unfortunately, probably can't be ruled out). Bonds and Clemens may never get in - certainly not by the writers.
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:00 AM (#5918564)
He's overwhelmingly likely to make it in next year & the only way he doesn't is due to controversies around his politics.
With next year’s weak crop of 1st-year eligibles, the extra ballot space now available, and Schilling being the top returning candidate with 70%, it would take a huge departure from prior voting patterns for Schilling not to make it. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen anyone not voting for Schilling who didn’t actually cite his public statements, so I don’t think there will be much doubt about the reason if he falls short.
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:17 AM (#5918566)
Schilling sails in next year, absent more dopey public comments.

Bonds and Clemens, no - but I suspect there is a gaggle of writers who, then in their final year, will figure the have pulled the football away long enough and let them in after a 10-year squeeze.
   13. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:20 AM (#5918568)
Shaugnnessy says he won’t vote so compared to this year, that’s a win for schilling.


I don't think that's what he says, at least in this article.

Curt Schilling will be honored in Cooperstown.

Swell.

Think I’ll sit this one out.


It seems to me that he's saying he will sit out honoring him if he is elected, rather than he will sit out the election process.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:45 AM (#5918576)
Bonds & Clemens have almost never moved. They debuted around 36% and stayed there until 2016 which was the purge year and they jumped to around 44%. They did jump another 8-9% the next year which was a bit of a surprise, maybe a "finally cleared out the backlog" jump? A "elected a possible roider in Piazza" bump? Across the last 3 elections though, Bonds has gained 7%. Their only hope is a year 10 bump or the right people on a VC some year.

Schilling would have to say something really stupid not to get in next year -- they have nobody else to vote for next year. The question is how big is Omar's jump. Then Ortiz in 2022 with ARod presumably getting the Bonds/Clemens treatment if not worse. If the cheating scandal does have HoF implications then Beltran is dead in the water in 2023 and the 2nd-best debut that year is John Lackey -- that's gonna be an ugly HoF year (Rolen if we're lucky, quite possibly Wagner although I suspect both are too far away). We might be lucky to get to 5 names per ballot in 2023 if Beltran takes a hit.
   15. Blastin Posted: January 23, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5918589)
All Schilling has to do is keep his mouth shut... during an election year.


And seriously, it's not just "politics," because most of the people in the HOF might well have voted the same way. It's the specific things he's said (and done! Let's not forget the video game theft!).

With that said, in my internal brain hall of fame, morals matter and I'm removing a lot of people and keeping him out. I'm taking out all the avowed racists and violent people and so on. But we don't live inside my brain.

In this real world, he should go in and I will avoid everything about his speech where he will wear a MAGA hat.
   16. Blastin Posted: January 23, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5918590)
Schilling would have to say something really stupid not to get in next year


He is not one to avoid rising to challenges.

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