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Tuesday, January 25, 2022
David Ortiz Lone Inductee Into Hall of Fame
ig Papi” was the only player to clear the 75 percent threshold for induction, according to results of this year’s voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Ortiz was named on 307 ballots (77.9 percent) in his first year of eligibility.
“I am truly honored and blessed by my selection to the Hall of Fame—the highest honor that any baseball player can reach in their lifetime,” Ortiz said in a statement released by the Boston Red Sox. “I am grateful to the baseball writers who considered my career in its totality, not just on the statistics.”
Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful
Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:56 PM | 120 comment(s)
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Prince Fielder got more votes than his dad did - 0.5% vs 0.2%
Joe Nathan and Tim Hudson both cracked 10 votes but not 5% so no more ballots for them, or for Tim Lincecum, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, Jonathan Papelbon, Fielder, A.J. Pierzynski, Jake Peavy, and Carl Crawford.
Next year (and probably for the full 10 he can be on the list) Alex Rodriguez gets another shot - 34.3%, a bit worse than Bonds worst, which was his 2nd year at 34.7%.
Jimmy Rollins is the only other 'rookie' to go on to a second year (9.4%).
Falling off: Tim Hudson (sub 5%), Ortiz (made it), Bonds/Clemens/Sosa/Schilling (10 years up).
So 6 gone, 2 added. Opens up spots for 2023 when Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez are added (only guys I can see getting any real support). I'd bet on Beltran getting in and maybe Scott Rolen (63.2% this year) with Todd Helton & Billy Wagner gaining more ground (both cracked 50%).
Sad that Bonds and Clemens didn't get in, but there was no chance that they would be accepted, what with some older writers having an omerta against them (Schilling is his own issue).
I would hope Bonds and Clemens get elected immediately, as soon as they go on a Veterans committee.
Looking forward, the amount of ballot real estate that just opened up is tremendous. There's only candidate with a reasonable shot of making it into the HoF coming on the ballot next year (Beltrán) and in 2024 (Beltré). Rolen is at 63%, so he is almost surely getting in by 2024.
Helton is looking like a reasonable bet, too, though I think he still needs some tailwinds.
I do wonder as to how A-Rod will do next year. Will he pick-up a lot of votes from voters that see him as a clear-cut HoFer but who wanted to punish him on his first year of eligibility?
But then, the other story. The hall of Fame reveals itself, once again, as absurd. The voters have seen fit to not elect the all time, and single season, home run King, the greatest player since Ruth. Or the greatest pitcher (with the possible exception of Paige) to have ever faced black players. Good work voters. Bonds and Clemens are such obviously great players, this reflects worse on you than it does on them.
True, and yet he was the 11th or 12th most deserving player on the ballot.
One of these things is not like the others.
Still though, does anyone else get the impression that voters are just making up reasons not to support deserving candidates?
I mean, you can do this with everyone. Schilling is a jerk, Beltran has the trash cans, Helton has Coors Field...
A bit more principle in the voting process would be welcome.
Helton will also make it.
Wagner has a chance, but he could run out of time.
Or are you talking about a different election year? Or maybe a different sport? I want to give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not, like, making #### up.
Yeah, outside of Ichiro the next few years will be a great time for guys like Rolen, Helton, Wagner, and others to sneak in. Maybe Kent gets a big boost in his final year but I doubt it.
First, the returning candidates entering 2023:
Rolen 63.2% It will be his 6th year
Helton 52% 5th
Wagner 51% 8th
Jones 41.1% 6th
Sheffield 40.6% 9th
ARod 34.3% 2nd
Kent 32.7% 10th
Ramirez 28.9% 7th
Vizquel 23.9% 6th
Pettitte 10.7% 5th
Rollins 9.4% 2nd
Abreu 8.6% 4th
Buehrle 5.8% 3rd
Hunter 5.3% 3rd
Beltran seems like the only new guy who will definitely break 5%. I guess KRod could, but Nathan got 4.3% this year, so I can't imagine Rodrigues is going to do a ton better. And it seems like Wagner kind of stalled out.
Then in 2024 you've got Beltre, who should glide in; Mauer, who should do pretty well; and Utley, who should do at least as well as Rollins, right?
So in 2023, if you were trying to put 10 names on your ballot, you'd probably do something like this:
Rolen
Helton
Beltran
Wagner
Jones
Sheffield
ARod
Kent
Ramirez
One of Vizquel, Pettitte, Rollins, Abreu, Buerhle, Hunter, or KRod.
There aren't 10 Hall of Famers there, IMO, and that's the first time in many years I feel that way.
Then you've got the Today's Era ballot. They have met twice before:
In late 2016, they met for the first time. One must get at least 12 of 16 people on the committee to vote for you, and you can vote for up to four candidates. In 2016, they voted:
Schuerholz 16
Selig 15
Pinella 7
Baines, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Hershiser, Davey Johnson, McGwire, and Steinbrenner all got less than 5 votes.
In 2018, they voted:
Lee Smith 16
Baines 12
Pinella 11 (one short!)
Belle, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Hershiser, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, and Steinbrenner all got fewer than 5 votes.
So late in 2022, the committee will meet again. They will pick 10 candidates. It could include:
Schilling
Bonds
Clemens
Sosa
McGwire
Bruce Bochy (eligible for the 1st time: he has the most wins of anybody not in the HOF, and one of 10 managers with at least 3 WS titles. The other nine are in the HOF already).
Kenny Lofton
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Kevin Brown
That is a hell of a list of 10 candidates. I'd vote for Bochy, Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens, and get it done with.
The best first-timer on next year's ballot is Carlos Beltran, who is implicated in the 2017 Astros scandal. The 2nd-best first timer, by WAR, is John Lackey.
They'll actually be up on the Vet committee this December, so their buddies can get them...oops, they don't have any buddies.
HOF voting is a ####### joke.
I also thought it was funny that Vizquel is the only guy who got a materially higher vote from private voters. Those guys must have had a lot of 4-5 name ballots.
What an absolute crock of horseshit.
Re 29: This.
I think the increasingly shrill bitching about the HOF being a joke in its entirety is a tantrum-evoking oversell, despite their obvious steroid missteps that pretty clearly follow the common crowd bell curve. I personally expect correction eventually, but am not troubled by the fact that we're not seeing it yet. YMMV, granted.
(I'm kinda more troubled by the tiny failure of Hudson falling off the ballot. I don't entirely think he's a HOFer, but he deserved a bit more consideration than THAT.)
Just make sure to lie about it and deny everything. Mark McGwire made the fatal mistake of admitting it and apologizing.
It already happened with Jack Morris. Also, gaining over 60% of the vote is not exactly the same as being "rejected". Tim Hudson got rejected, Roger Clemens got a large majority of voter support.
Definitely not a hall of famer, but Lackey did help the two greatest curse-breaking teams of this century win a title. And he also won a WS with the Red Sox.
When Lackey debuted in mid-2002, if someone told you he’d go on to win WS titles with the Angels, Red Sox, and Cubs, you’d probably assume he’d have to be a hall of famer.
Yes, he got in over at least 3 clearly superior players, and the silly inconsistent nay illogical standards do perturb me. But as a Sox fan I'll never forget his '04 heroics.
OK, first of all, the argument against Roger Clemens is that he's lying about it and denying everything. So, in the kindest terms, GTFO with that nonsense.
Second, Ortiz hasn't really said anything different than Bonds did. At its simplest, they both said they used stuff but weren't aware of what was in it. In Bonds' case, there's a whole lot of testimony and evidence against him to demonstrate that he really did use PEDs, knowingly or not. In Ortiz's case, there's a positive test without screening for false positives, which MLB has told people should not be considered as a failed test or evidence of PED usage, and 15 years or so of rigorous PED testing without a single failed test.
People like to dance around the obvious differences between Ortiz and the Mitchell Report Gang so they can pretend the differences aren't there, and make it seem like the different decisions about them are arbitrary. They're not at all arbitrary. They might be temporal differences - in that most of the Mitchell Report Gang didn't subsequently play for over a decade in an era of rigorous PED testing - and they might not be differences we should care about anyway. But that's an entirely different argument than "McGwire is being persecuted because he's just so gosh darn honest".
Hudson and Ortiz have roughly the same fWAR and bWAR, yet one gets in on the first ballot and the other gets 12 whole votes and *poof* he's gone.
Which is an obvious lie
Also, McGwire hadn't gone anywhere in the voting before he was honest. It wasn't a fatal admission.
That's on its face a laughable state of affairs. There's no serious defense for it.
The false positive rate for those tests could not be lower than 20% (and since there were no penalties, they didn't bother with the B sample protocols which help mitigate other issues such as handling errors).
You don't say!
Voters don't vote based on how good the baseball player was. They vote on how good the baseball player made them feel while they were watching them play. They're substituting "Did I like this player the best?" for "Was this player one of the best?". That helps explain the obsession with closers who "win the game" by pitching the 9th inning.
I’ll have to look at the stats but my impression is they were equivalent.
Well, they do both, in varying degrees. It's the "varying degrees" part that's the problem.
And as previously noted above, plenty of voters DO vote based on how good the player was. A LOT of voters. It just wasn't enough voters.
People ignore it because it has absolutely nothing to do with why Ortiz got elected. The voters who said yes to Ortiz and no to Bonds weren't doing a close reading of Manfred's statements. It's just #### that extremely online people tell themselves to justify cognitive dissonance.
They were both bad in the postseason
I took a quick gander at the stat lines of the Two Willies-if they belong Ortiz does too. Stargell was the last of the ones I looked at (Thome too-yes he was better than all 3).
Then went to the store.
We Are Family was playing inside.
Pops = Papi of course.
Disagree. I'm pretty comfortable with A-Rod, Rolen, Ramirez, Jones, Pettitte, Beltran, Sheffield, Kent, Abreu, Buerhle, and Helton, in that order. But only having to cut one guy is the best it's been in a while.
Also, can't imagine they cut Pinella after missing by one vote. My guess is McGriff, Schilling, and Bochy get in
You never know how Schilling will fare, given nobody liked him, but that's still where I'd put my money.
I think Ortiz has a solid case as one of the top 50 offensive players in baseball history. He ranks 39th in wRC+ (8000+ PA). He ranks 42nd in Batting Wins. He ranks 47th in OWL% (8000+ PA).
Here are the top 65 in wRC+:
1 Babe Ruth 10616 1972 Ted Williams 9791 188
3 Lou Gehrig 9660 173
4 Rogers Hornsby 9475 173
5 Barry Bonds 12606 173 n
6 Mickey Mantle 9909 170
7 Ty Cobb 13072 165
8 Stan Musial 12712 158
9 Jimmie Foxx 9670 158
10 Tris Speaker 11988 157
11 Mel Ott 11337 156
12 Willie Mays 12493 154
13 Frank Thomas 10075 154
14 Frank Robinson 11743 153
15 Hank Aaron 13940 153
16 Manny Ramirez 9774 153 n
17 Jeff Bagwell 9431 149
18 Joey Votto 8128 149 n
19 Edgar Martinez 8678 147
20 Honus Wagner 11739 147
21 Mike Schmidt 10062 147
22 Willie McCovey 9691 145
23 Willie Stargell 9026 145
24 Jim Thome 10313 145
25 Eddie Collins 12037 144
26 Harry Heilmann 8960 144
27 Ed Delahanty 8389 144
28 Nap Lajoie 10460 144
29 Eddie Mathews 10101 143
30 Miguel Cabrera 10993 143 n
31 Roger Connor 8837 143
32 H. Killebrew 9831 142
33 Chipper Jones 10614 141
34 Albert Pujols 12690 141 n
35 Gary Sheffield 10947 141 n
36 Alex Rodriguez 12207 141 n
37 Larry Walker 8030 140
38 Jason Giambi 8908 140 n
*39 David Ortiz 10091 140*
40 Duke Snider 8237 139
41 Reggie Jackson 11416 139
42 Sam Crawford 10594 138
43 Jack Clark 8230 138 n
44 Jesse Burkett 9605 137
45 Reggie Smith 8050 137 n
46 V. Guerrero 9059 136
47 Will Clark 8283 136 n
48 Paul Waner 10762 135
49 Carlos Delgado 8657 135 n
50 Joe Morgan 11329 135
51 Fred McGriff 10174 134 n
52 Cap Anson 11319 134
53 Sherry Magee 8546 134 n
54 Al Kaline 11597 134
55 Ken Singleton 8559 134 n
56 Bob Johnson 8047 133 n
57 Joe Medwick 8142 133
58 George Brett 11625 132
59 R. Henderson 13346 132
60 Billy Williams 10519 132
61 Rod Carew 10550 132
62 Wade Boggs 10740 132
63 Todd Helton 9453 132 n
64 Tony Gwynn 10232 132
65 Ken Griffey Jr 11304 131
1 Babe Ruth+ (22) 130.0 106262 Barry Bonds (22) 122.5 12606 n
3 Ty Cobb+ (24) 110.0 13103
4 Ted Williams+ (19) 110.0 9792
5 Stan Musial+ (22) 94.3 12721
6 Henry Aaron+ (23) 92.6 13941
7 Lou Gehrig+ (17) 89.9 9665
8 Tris Speaker+ (22) 87.6 12020
9 Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 85.8 9481
10 Mickey Mantle+ (18) 85.2 9910
11 Willie Mays+ (23) 84.1 12545
12 Frank Robinson+ (21) 79.0 11744
13 Mel Ott+ (22) 77.4 11348
14 Honus Wagner+ (21) 73.0 11756
15 Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 72.0 9677
16 Frank Thomas+ (19) 69.7 10075
17 Albert Pujols (21) 68.9 12690 n
18 Eddie Collins+ (25) 66.6 12087
19 Dan Brouthers+ (19) 66.0 7691
20 Manny Ramirez (19) 65.0 9774 n
21 Nap Lajoie+ (21) 61.7 10468
22 Cap Anson+ (27) 61.4 11331
23 Miguel Cabrera (19) 61.3 10993 n
24 Jeff Bagwell+ (15) 58.8 9431
25 Alex Rodriguez (22) 58.6 12207 n
26 Jim Thome+ (22) 58.3 10313
27 Mike Schmidt+ (18) 58.2 10062
28 Roger Connor+ (18) 57.3 8847
29 Willie McCovey+ (22) 55.9 9692
30 C. Yastrzemski+ (23) 55.9 13992
31 Gary Sheffield (22) 55.4 10947 n
32 Chipper Jones+ (19) 55.2 10614
33 Mark McGwire (16) 54.8 7660 n
34 Eddie Mathews+ (17) 53.8 10101
35 Sam Crawford+ (19) 53.3 10625
36 R. Henderson+ (25) 53.3 13346
37 Ed Delahanty+ (16) 52.4 8402
38 Reggie Jackson+ (21) 52.4 11418
39 Edgar Martinez+ (18) 52.3 8674
40 H. Killebrew+ (22) 52.1 9833
41 Harry Heilmann+ (17) 51.6 8972
*42 David Ortiz+ (20) 51.4 10091*
43 Johnny Mize+ (15) 51.3 7372
44 Mike Trout (11, 29) 51.1 5660 n
45 Joey Votto (15, 37) 50.9 8128 n
46 W. Stargell+ (21) 50.7 9027
47 Joe Morgan+ (22) 50.6 11329
48 Al Kaline+ (22) 50.0 11597
49 George Brett+ (21) 49.7 11625
50 Joe DiMaggio+ (13) 49.5 7672
51 Dick Allen (15) 49.4 7315 n
52 Jesse Burkett+ (16) 48.9 9629
53 Ken Griffey Jr+ (22) 47.6 11304
54 Paul Waner+ (20) 47.5 10767
55 Joe Jackson (13) 47.2 5697 n
56 Rafael Palmeiro (20) 46.7 12046 n
57 Wade Boggs+ (18) 46.3 10740
58 Eddie Murray+ (21) 45.9 12817
59 Jason Giambi (20) 44.4 8908 n
60 Billy Hamilton+ (14) 44.2 7609
61 Dave Winfield+ (22) 44.1 12358
62 Lance Berkman (15) 44.0 7814 n
63 V. Guerrero+ (16) 43.8 9059
64 Fred McGriff (19) 43.6 10174 n
65 Tony Gwynn+ (20) 42.8 10232
1 Babe Ruth+ (22) .858 106262 Ted Williams+ (19) .857 9792
3 Barry Bonds (22) .815 12606 n
4 Rogers Hornsby+ (23) .815 9481
5 Ty Cobb+ (24) .809 13103
6 Mickey Mantle+ (18) .804 9910
7 Lou Gehrig+ (17) .803 9665
8 Jimmie Foxx+ (20) .780 9677
9 Stan Musial+ (22) .779 12721
10 Tris Speaker+ (22) .778 12020
11 Honus Wagner+ (21) .763 11756
12 Ed Delahanty+ (16) .758 8402
13 Nap Lajoie+ (21) .758 10468
14 Willie Mays+ (23) .747 12545
15 Larry Walker+ (17) .746 8030
16 Joey Votto (15, 37) .745 8128 n
17 Mel Ott+ (22) .743 11348
18 Frank Robinson+ (21) .743 11744
19 Harry Heilmann+ (17) .741 8972
20 Roger Connor+ (18) .738 8847
21 Sam Crawford+ (19) .738 10625
22 Todd Helton (17) .736 9453 n
23 Henry Aaron+ (23) .733 13941
24 Frank Thomas+ (19) .732 10075
25 Manny Ramirez (19) .731 9774 n
26 Jesse Burkett+ (16) .727 9629
27 Mike Schmidt+ (18) .727 10062
28 Cap Anson+ (27) .723 11331
29 Jeff Bagwell+ (15) .722 9431
30 Willie McCovey+ (22) .718 9692
31 W. Stargell+ (21) .717 9027
32 Eddie Collins+ (25) .715 12087
33 Jim Thome+ (22) .713 10313
34 Edgar Martinez+ (18) .712 8674
35 Duke Snider+ (18) .707 8237
36 H. Killebrew+ (22) .706 9833
37 Eddie Mathews+ (17) .706 10101
38 Chipper Jones+ (19) .705 10614
39 Joe Morgan+ (22) .702 11329
40 Sherry Magee (16) .700 8557 n
41 Joe Kelley+ (17) .699 8161
42 Joe Medwick+ (17) .699 8143
43 Al Simmons+ (20) .699 9520
44 Paul Waner+ (20) .695 10767
45 Reggie Smith (17) .693 8051 n
46 Miguel Cabrera (19) .688 10993 n
*47 David Ortiz+ (20) .688 10091*
48 Billy Williams+ (18) .688 10519
49 Gary Sheffield (22) .687 10947 n
50 Al Kaline+ (22) .686 11597
51 Will Clark (15) .685 8283 n
52 Jason Giambi (20) .684 8908 n
53 Alex Rodriguez (22) .684 12207 n
54 Zack Wheat+ (19) .684 10007
55 Fred Clarke+ (21) .683 9860
56 Bob Johnson (13) .682 8051 n
57 Willie Keeler+ (19) .679 9616
58 Carlos Delgado (17) .678 8657 n
59 Albert Pujols (21) .678 12690 n
60 Wade Boggs+ (18) .677 10740
61 C. Yastrzemski+ (23) .677 13992
62 Jack Clark (18) .674 8230 n
63 George Sisler+ (15) .671 9018
64 Rod Carew+ (19) .670 10550
Without those postseasons, he's basically Sheffield or Kent or Beltran, a borderliner who might catch enough notice to build a case or might not. (Whether those postseasons make him deserving is a matter of opinion.)
The 2013 run didn't hurt either (and even in his terrible ALCS, he managed the biggest hit).
Being the key player on a team that wins multiple championships is always helpful, as it was for Kirby and as will be for Posey. Ortiz was the only player on Boston's first three titles of the 21st century.
I mean, the key difference there is that those guys were actually the best player on a championship team, while Ortiz never was.
Neither was Kirby. Didn't change how he was seen, however.
Ortiz hit in the middle of the order for all three title teams (and carrying a glove in all the NL games), typically raking. He was seen as the linchpin to those teams.
For me the HOF is a museum that tells the story of the history of baseball. Ortiz, stats wise is good enough to be considered(like Andruw), and his narrative pushes him in as you can't really tell the story of the MLB without him over the last 20 years.(also, like Andruw, who, for me, has a case as the greatest OF ever. That carries a lot of weight for me)
I suppose for some see it merely as a Hall of WAR, and that's ok, but I don't see the HOF like that, so for me guys who were good enough stats wise to be considered, then have some narrative which really help enlighten the history of MLB, then I usually consider them in. Rightly or not, I would consider Pettitte over Hudson due to his really solid post season, that narrative pushes him in toward induction for me.
It's a major factor, to be sure. It's not the only one.
It's really odd though. When one looks at Ortiz vs. Todd Helton, it's pretty interesting. They have the same oWAR, but of course Helton is doing better there with the positional runs. He picks up an 89 run. advantage over Ortiz just for going out to 1b with his glove, before taking into account his actual defense.
Ortiz' OPS+ better by 8 points, and 31 batting runs. Not insignificant, but not very large margins either. But one guy played the field at a very high defensive level for his entire career , So that pulls him comfortably ahead in WAR
Obviously many, probably most of the voters didn't care about this type of analysis. They see the HR and RBI, and the narrative of those post seasons, and Helton becomes an after thought, even before they start making erroneous ballpark adjustments in their heads. And they seem to have forgotten about the narrative of entire career with one team.
So in my view it's a combination of things that just all added up.......the narrative, which is very large, the HR and RBI, which jump off the page for the average voter, and the "likability" factor.....(YMMV on that one.......he's not that likable to me)
There is absolutely nothing wrong with a HOF with David Ortiz in it. Great career. Great Hitter. Great history and a lot of emotion in those stories. He belongs.
But man, the voters just can't pull their heads out of their __ses over PED and recognize the era for what it was and move on.
Player oWAR OPS+ Rbat Rbaser Rfield WAR/pos G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPSDavid Ortiz 56.7 141 455.2 -39.0 -15.9 55.3 2408 10091 8640 1419 2472 632 19 541 1768 1319 1750 .286 .380 .552 .931
Todd Helton 54.5 133 424.3 -13.1 76.4 61.8 2247 9453 7962 1401 2519 592 37 369 1406 1335 1175 .316 .414 .539 .953
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 1/26/2022.
Unless you're Sammy Sosa.
I can only speak for myself.
To me, I accepted the idea that some voters would never vote for someone with steroid allegations. So while I disagreed with it for many reasons because I found it illogical, I accepted that there was this view.
For Ortiz to be elected is galling, because it means it was never really about steroids in the first place. It's particularly insulting because Ortiz is a borderline candidate who was elected on the first ballot, when players much better than him were told to wait.
So if it's not about steroids and it's not about the quality of the player, then what the #### is the Hall of Fame about?
Maybe the Ortiz election opens the door? Maybe Sheffield goes next(even though the making an error on purpose thing probably riles people), then the light of day and Bonds and Clemens are admitted. I can see that happening.
Here is Manfred’s statement which is directed at Ortiz specifically. https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/91442256
Here is jayson stark on his vote AND the electorates view:
“Now add in the fact that none of those names was ever supposed to leak in the first place. And the commissioner was obviously telling us not to use that report as a reason to not vote for Ortiz.
So why is Big Papi raking in more than 83 percent of the public votes so far, and positioning himself either to be elected on the first ballot or to cruise in next year? I think that covers it.“
There are plenty of others who said the same in their articles. Take away the PED suspicion, he’s an obvious HOFr.
I suppose for some see it merely as a Hall of WAR, and that's ok, but I don't see the HOF like that, so for me guys who were good enough stats wise to be considered, then have some narrative which really help enlighten the history of MLB, then I usually consider them in. Rightly or not, I would consider Pettitte over Hudson due to his really solid post season, that narrative pushes him in toward induction for me.
This raises the question: Why aren't postseason stats included in WAR? It seems to be a near-unanimous opinion that playoff/World Series games are more important than regular-season games, and great performances in those games are more memorable. They're also more valuable to the team owners (which is largely what WAR is about).
Does anyone calculate WAR-plus, including postseason/playoff games?
Besides, there's also the issue of opportunities not being evenly distributed, whether you're really comparing the same things for regular season and post season, and whether WAR is actually the most appropriate way to evaluate the postseason anyway, or something like WPA would be better.
Not exactly. Logically (a dicey adverb when it comes to the BBWAA), it means that for about half (a bit more I think) of the non-B/C voters, it was never about a true, strict, bright line "he used at least once, knowingly or unknowingly, even if based on kinda flimsy evidence." The other half of them didn't vote for Ortiz, presumably some not considering him worthy and others because of roids. Note there were a sizable chunk of B/C voters who did not vote for Ortiz.
#67: Or it looks like poking around for justification for a vote you want to make anyway. Opening day starts didn't matter one bit until Jack Morris supporters found out he had a lot of them, then suddenly they became an important HoF criterion -- immediately forgotten once Morris was done. (Has anybody seen a cite for the number of opening day starts for Buehrle, Hudson or Pettitte?) The "Manfred excuse" was not extended to Sosa. Did anybody ask Jayson Stark "if the Ortiz allegation is ignored, is the Sosa allegation also ignored?" If so, what was his response?
It's really, really hard to see any other reason for the vote differences between Ortiz and Sosa than that Ortiz's alleged appearance on the list was ignored while Sosa's was not.
Well, it is partly about baseball's history and stories, and Ortiz was part of great stories. Bonds, McGwire and Sosa are considered villains, especially ofc Bonds. Ortiz OTOH is seen as a hero. I am not saying it's right, but that's how it is. All that aside, Ortiz deserves to be in the HOF for sure in my opinion.
I will be interested to see if Alex Rodriguez eventually gets in.
Well, Hugh pretty clearly answered this in the - excellent, IMO - post you quoted.
In terms of celebrating fame, the postseason is very popular and widely-viewed and determines championships. It is very hard to keep that out of a vote on a player's stature in baseball history. It's not just about popularity or playing in a big-market big-media center. I have to think that if the Rockies had won three WS including Helton heroics, while the Red Sox puttered along mostly out of contention all those years except for getting swept by the Rockies in '07, then Helton would have been this week's pick handily.
Amazing how the great story of the HR chase of 1998 has been completely forgotten, and/or its memory permanently sullied. At the time tho it was a pretty awesome thing.
The commissioner seemed to direct his 2003 comments at Ortiz specifically. I don’t think anyone really believes that Sosa wasn’t juicing during the Mcgwire years. Of course we don’t know but it’s improbable he was clean. Some people point to the corked bat but that’s a red herring.
I don’t think Sosa is really a good comp for Ortiz. Not as good a hitter but obviously more of a five tool player early in his career. No post season exploits which are a huge selling point for Ortiz.
Even if you write off PEDs I can see concluding Sosa is a borderline HOFr where Ortiz is a gimme.
I think you're quite right that the timing of Ortiz's career, with his reported appearance on the list coming at the front of his career and playing the bulk of his career in the testing era is a differentiator. But Sammy Sosa had 609 homers, eclipsed 60 three times and was part of the most memorable reagular season in decades. Without PED concerns, he's a Hall lock.
To me, the difference between Sosa and Ortiz - in terms of treatment from HoF voters - is temporal. In the peak of PED stuff Sosa was at least fitting into a guilt-by-association narrative. Like, he was performing on the field at a level of PED users, in the era of PED users. After testing started for real in 2004, Sosa got hurt, got worse, and retired. The notion at the advent of testing is that PED users would either test positive or decline in performance, and Sosa declined in performance. For Sosa the advent of testing coincided with normal ages for a slugger to get hurt or get worse. The timing didn't really give him a chance to build a different narrative in his remaining playing career. So he ended up stuck in a narrative that was "at best guilt by association, at worst guilt" but really was nothing more than guilt by association. In Ortiz's case, he had a dozen years or so playing in the testing era, and doing well throughout.
You could make a case that Sosa got screwed the most in HoF voting. I'm not really interested enough in crowning a champion on that competition, but I think he has the highest ratio of treatment-as-guilty to evidence-of-guilt.
I don't see McGwire as a villain but Alex Rodriguez sure fits that description
How so? It didn't seem like anything changed for McGwire once he confessed to what everyone was already convinced he was guilty of.
I'm not even sure if the concept of "replacement level" has any meaning for the postseason but we can calculate average performance and give credit for that. That's the way I handle it for Hall of Merit voting.
This is what I hate about the steroids debate - the fact that we're supposed to burn certain witches at the stake for even the merest hint of suspicion while completely exonerating others.
No we're not. You can do what I do and not care about steroids and just evaluate players based on how they performed.
All of them had evidence of steroid use outside of the 2003 test, except Sosa and Ortiz.
*Insert "player leaks before testing positive, not the other way around" joke here.
Now, is that dispositive as to his use? Of course not. But playing the "he used / he didn't use because of how he looks" game has always been dumb.
Anyway. This is one of those debates where I can't decide if I'm on one side of it or another. A Hall without the greatest players in it seems silly to me -- but also more clear-cut when the greatest missing players were Blyleven and Santo, who missed out because people didn't know how great they were, not because people thought they were cheats. But I can also see the argument that the Hall of Fame is basically a baseball history museum, and while part of the role of such a museum is to display the greatness of players, like Blyleven, that people overlooked, it's also to reflect the galvanic spotlight that shone on players, like Ortiz, who maybe weren't as good.
Maybe this is just coming down to me being a big hall guy, though I never thought of myself that way. Anyway. I do think both sides have a point, and both sides have weaknesses. If your hall includes Ortiz because of the glitter of his star, do you really have a solid argument for keeping out the likes of Jim Morris? Because if that doesn't come down to how good he was, then what is it? And if it does come down to how good he was, how do you draw the line? Aren't you just drawing it in a slightly different place than the people who would keep Ortiz out?
In addition to all the stuff mentioned, Ortiz never had the kind of dramatic muscle definition/size changes that Bonds, McGwire and Sosa had
You're familiar with Ortiz's minor-league body type? You saw him at 18-20?
From ages 21-26, Ortiz had a 175 ISO. From ages 27-30, he had a 316 ISO. His HR/FB went from 8.8% to 16.4%. That didn't involve an increase in muscle mass? (Really the first jump was at age 25.)
The young David Ortiz was a big, slow, platoon 1B who wasn't hitting for power. His career was in the balance, he had a huge incentive to try steroids. Doesn't mean he did, doesn't mean he did so knowingly, doesn't mean they made a big difference if he did, doesn't mean he didn't stop once testing came in if he ever used.
HR%, AB/HR, HR/FB
SS 21: 2.6, 36, 8.5
DO 21: 2.0, 49, 5.6
SS 22: 3.0, 32, 11.4
DO 22: 2.8, 31, 8.2
SS 23: 2.8, 33, 8.4
DO 23: (just 25 useless PA)
SS 24: 5.2, 18, 13.9
DO 24: 2.1, 42, 5.2
SS 25: 5.5, 17, 15.7
DO 25: 5.2, 17, 12.6
SS 26: 5.7, 16, 18.3
DO 26: 4.3, 21, 10.4
SS 27: 7.4, 13, 21.3
DO 27: 6.1, 15, 14.3
The young Sosa was a better power hitter than the young Ortiz. Sosa was bit better at 21-23, jumped a year earlier and his 2nd jump was a bit bigger. We haven't gotten to Sosa's 98-01 yet which of course was pretty historic but, through age 27, you would have expected Sosa to be the better power hitter. For all we know, Sosa was roiding at 21 of course; for all we know, Ortiz was on nothing but Wheaties. But the skinny, fast Sosa was already a better power hitter than Ortiz. You wouldn't bet on either guy making it to 500 HR or the HoF but if you had to pick one, you'd pick the athletic and powerful Sosa.
Is it? It doesn't seem hard to explain to me, in a world where most of the voting body ignored Dave Stieb and fellated Jack Morris. Ortiz was a postseason legend. Sosa played in two postseasons, batting .245 with 2 home runs in 15 games.
The one thing that seems near-universally true of the MLBPA voters is that they absolutely adore Clutch Performance, and justified or not*, Ortiz is the most famous Clutch Hitter of the 21st century. That is why he was elected first ballot while Gary Sheffield will either be elderly or dead when he is finally elected by a Veterans' Committee. (I am astounded that Curt Schilling is such a raging ####### that he can't get elected despite being well qualified and a postseason legend.)
* (Manny Ramirez put up practically identical slash stats in 25 more postseason games than Ortiz)
And yet, there is a huge discrepancy in their championship WPAs (Manny at 14.8 percent, Papi at 63.3 percent).
Ortiz timed his hits fabulously well.
Ortiz timed his hits fabulously well.
Lance Berkman also timed his hits fabulously well (82.4% CPA); didn't do much for him in the voting.
(Not arguing the point that postseason matters to the voters - just saying that, as with everything else about the Hall, it would be nice if it mattered in consistent fashion.)
I think Nathan’s postseason failures are much more memorable since they happened against the Yankees
Lance Berkman also timed his hits fabulously well (82.4% CPA); didn't do much for him in the voting.
Berkman had a great rebound 2011 & amazing postseason. Freese got the most memorable hits but Berkman contributed a ton to the playoff run. It was too bad Berkman was only able to play 105 more games split over two more injury-riddled seasons
Lance Berkman had 224 PA in the post season, while Ortiz had 370, so quantity matters too.
Also, Ortiz's regular season career was 10091 PA while Berkman's was 7814 PA, at roughly equivalent levels of offense - the post-season isn't likely to move the writers much if they don't think you did enough in the regular season and Berkman's career (while very good) is on the short side for a selection by the BBWAA.
Worth noting that in 2004 it was the other way around. Ramirez was batting ahead of Ortiz and Torre didn't really want anything to do with Manny, 3 walks in game 4. They went after Manny the next day* (just one walk). And of course Manny struck out before Ortiz won the ALDS with his homer.
* well that afternoon.
that's this month's Hall of Merit voting.
Berkman finished 4th with 248 voting points - making him the lead holdover entering next year's weak crop.
but he appeared on just 15 of 28 ballots (in spite of all voters needing to choose 15 players and with almost all of the top 10 candidates - setting aside HGH issues - already inducted), with only five electors having him in the top 3.
Ortiz finished 9th (tied with BOBBY Bonds) with 168 voting points.
he appeared on just 11 of 28 ballots, with only two electors having him in the top 3.
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