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Tuesday, January 25, 2022

David Ortiz Lone Inductee Into Hall of Fame

ig Papi” was the only player to clear the 75 percent threshold for induction, according to results of this year’s voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Ortiz was named on 307 ballots (77.9 percent) in his first year of eligibility.

“I am truly honored and blessed by my selection to the Hall of Fame—the highest honor that any baseball player can reach in their lifetime,” Ortiz said in a statement released by the Boston Red Sox. “I am grateful to the baseball writers who considered my career in its totality, not just on the statistics.”

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:56 PM | 120 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, red sox

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   101. blueshaker Posted: January 28, 2022 at 09:32 PM (#6062959)
Why wouldn't a postseason legend be something that *does* matter, maybe significantly, to a HOF case? David Ortiz might have been the greatest postseason 'performer' we've ever seen. As a fan, those postseasons resonate with me. They've had a real impact on the history and enjoyment of the game.

For the HOF I just value the postseason subjectively: What's a great, MVP level, postseason worth to you? For me, I value it as much as a typical all-star regular season. For HOF consideration, I'd take David Ortiz' 2013 postseason over Lou Whitaker's 1986.

There are very few great players where this really matters. But yeah...Ortiz + at least 12 'postseason credit' WAR? Easy HOF.
   102. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6062962)
Ortiz was a postseason legend. Sosa played in two postseasons, batting .245 with 2 home runs in 15 games.

Sure ... and that's worth 60% of the vote? But more relevantly, how would Ortiz's postseason legend be viewed if he was viewed as a dirty roider? Would it have counted at all? If Ortiz had finished in the Manny-ARod-Sheff cluster then "Ortiz = Sosa + postseason heroics" is perfectly plausible. If dirty roiding is enough to keep Bonds and Clemens out then clearly it would be more than enough to counteract Ortiz's postseason heroics. He's in the HoF (on the first ballot no less) because about half of the non-B/C voters decided he wasn't a dirty roider.
   103. base ball chick Posted: January 28, 2022 at 11:53 PM (#6062971)
25. . . . . . . Posted: January 26, 2022 at 01:25 AM (#6062543)

So using PEDs is OK as long as you’re a charismatic guy who kisses the right asses. I mean, that is in fact how the world works, but it would be better if the HOF didnt so nakedly reflect how ###### up the world is.


dingdingding

then again i think that ortiz is an obvious HOFer

just not better than bonds. of course it is real tough to be better than bonds
   104. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 29, 2022 at 10:51 AM (#6062991)
Sure ... and that's worth 60% of the vote?


To the guys doing the actual voting? Yes. Yes it is.

I could be off course, but I absolutely believe Ortiz got a pass on steroids because of his postseason heroics and his positive relationship with the media.

You're preaching to the choir both to me and to most Primates. Unfortunately the BBWAA voters are way off the ranch.
   105. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 29, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6062993)
He's in the HoF (on the first ballot no less) because about half of the non-B/C voters decided he wasn't a dirty roider.


This is such an important point about the last decade of HOF voting that I feel hasn't been made often in the media.

Think of the HOF voters as falling into three buckets:
1) Voters who determine who is a dirty roider or not, and then will exclude candidates who they conclude were dirty roiders.
2) Voters who determine who is a dirty roider or not, and then "discount" candidates' resumes, but do not automatically eliminate roiders from consideration.
3) Voters who have decided the whole steroid thing is not a factor in their voting.

The voters did not elect Clemens or Bonds, but when I see the media portray that as a "rejection", I'm not sure that's accurate. I mean, two-thirds of voters decided both were Hall of Famers. I take this to basically mean that:
1) Voters in group one make up roughly a third of the electorate (and slowly declining as a percentage every year). And Clemens and Bonds were almost universally determined by this crowd to have been "dirty roiders".
2) Some percentage (another third?) who will discount or ding a candidate for being a "roider", but if their credentials are overwhelming, would still vote for them. I think there is a percentage of the electorate that vote for Bonds/Clemens, but not Sheffield/Ramirez, on this basis. (I also think part of why Manny and ARod do worse with this crowd is because both got busted in such 100% inarguable ways that the discount is huge with this cohort of voters).
3) Roughly a third of the voters genuinely don't think about PEDs for a second when they vote. ARod got 34%; Manny got 29%. You couldn't be more guilty of PEDs than these guys if you tried, but if you don't give a crap about the topic, these are obviously two of the greatest players in history. (This is where I land - a Hall of Fame that doesn't have Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez in it, Bonds, Clemens, etc., doesn't make sense. Put the PED stuff on their plaque with something like, "His statistics were compiled during an era of great controversy over the use of performance-enhancing drugs" or something.

For Ortiz:
1) Clearly significantly less than a third of the "PEDs make you a non-starter" saw Ortiz as eliminated due to PEDs. Manfred's comments probably helped a lot with that.
2) Virtually none of the "PED discount" 15%-20% discounted his stats, because if they had, he probably wouldn't have made it over the Hall of Fame in/out line.
3) Most of those who don't consider PEDs in their voting probably also do not discount that he was a DH, and I suspect are generally "big hall" type of voters. In that view of the world, Ortiz is clearly a Hall of Famer.

So you end up with Ortiz facing an electorate that was not split up in these three groups with a third in each - which would have prevented him from getting near 75%. Instead, he faced an electorate that was more like 15/10/75, and he had every intangible working for him (the personality, the postseason, the Red Sox, the Manfred comments, etc). That was going to get him almost all of the 75% that fell into Group 3, and some of the ~10% from Group 2. That gets him to 78%.
   106. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 29, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6062994)
Why wouldn't a postseason legend be something that *does* matter, maybe significantly, to a HOF case? David Ortiz might have been the greatest postseason 'performer' we've ever seen.

In my lifetime the only ones in Ortiz's range would be Lou Brock and George Brett, and neither of them had either his rate stats or his number of postseason games. Even Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig didn't match Papi's World Series OPS numbers.
   107. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 29, 2022 at 04:33 PM (#6063017)
what about Troy Glaus or Hideki Matsui?
   108. JJ1986 Posted: January 29, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6063020)
If you're talking just WS, George Springer is a monster.
   109. John DiFool2 Posted: January 29, 2022 at 08:37 PM (#6063025)
Can't forget Reggie.
   110. SoSH U at work Posted: January 30, 2022 at 12:17 AM (#6063031)
That's an excellent synopsis Steve. The one thing we don't know yet is whether there's a fourth group (taken primarily from 3 - people who don't care about pre-policy juicing but will hold it against a player who is dinged with a suspension.
   111. AstrosOldTimer Posted: January 30, 2022 at 11:46 AM (#6063043)
> the argument against Roger Clemens is that he's lying about it and denying everything. So, in the kindest terms, GTFO with that nonsense.

There is testimony from teammates against Clemens. There is testimony from the trainer who injected him and his wife with HGH.

His defense is that they are all lying and that only his wife received HGH injections.

You have to be pretty ####### gullible to think that a multi-million dollar athlete having an amazing late-career surge in an era when PED use was rampant is somehow the one innocent guy being persecuted by his teammates and his trainer, and that all of this was just for his wife.
   112. alilisd Posted: January 30, 2022 at 12:04 PM (#6063044)
Even Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig didn't match Papi's World Series OPS numbers.


Well Gehrig has a 1.214 in 150 PA's, Ruth also 1.214 (that's pretty amazing!) in 159 PA's, while Ortiz is at 1.372 but in 59 PA's. So they may not match the OPS number but they sure had a lot more PA's and still came pretty damn close.
   113. Mefisto Posted: January 30, 2022 at 12:24 PM (#6063045)
None of them can hold a candle to Bumgarner (4-0, 36 IP, 0.25 ERA).
   114. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 30, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6063048)
That's an excellent synopsis Steve. The one thing we don't know yet is whether there's a fourth group (taken primarily from 3 - people who don't care about pre-policy juicing but will hold it against a player who is dinged with a suspension.


I think A-Rod shows there is a substantial contingent here. If you merely discount his numbers due to steroids, he's easily a Hall of Famer, but he did much worse than Bonds and Clemens.
   115. alilisd Posted: January 30, 2022 at 03:45 PM (#6063062)
I think A-Rod shows there is a substantial contingent here. If you merely discount his numbers due to steroids, he's easily a Hall of Famer, but he did much worse than Bonds and Clemens.


On this year's ballot, yes, but he is about the same in terms of 1st year on the ballot success
   116. alilisd Posted: January 30, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6063063)
95. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: January 28, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6062842)
Logically if you look at Nathan there’s not much to differentiate him from Wagner or Hoffman, but the writers don’t seem to really apply any thinking along those lines

I think Nathan’s postseason failures are much more memorable since they happened against the Yankees


Maybe if you're a Yankees fan or an AL guy? I honestly have no recollection of Nathan in the post season. Looking back he had some good and some bad against the Yankees. Maybe it would be more dramatic if you were watching it with a vested interest. I doubt that had much if any influence on his vote totals though.
   117. DL from MN Posted: January 31, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6063165)
McGwire is being persecuted because he's just so gosh darn honest


His support evaporated after he admitted to using PEDs and apologizing. This despite the public apology showing "integrity, sportsmanship and character".
   118. SoSH U at work Posted: January 31, 2022 at 09:55 AM (#6063167)
In the election after his admission, he dropped from 23 percent support to 19 percent. Mac never had support, before or after his fessing.
   119. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 31, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6063173)
In the election after his admission, he dropped from 23 percent support to 19 percent. Mac never had support, before or after his fessing.

Yeah, the real drop (to the extent you can have a real drop from a starting point of 23%) came in 2013-14, at the same time as all the other holdovers had their support tank, and for the same reason.
   120. Buck Coats Posted: February 01, 2022 at 08:26 AM (#6063314)
There is testimony from teammates against Clemens.


Is this true? I thought the only teammate testimony was Pettitte saying that one time while jogging Clemens mentioned steroids, and then saying he may have mis-remembered because Clemens later told him that wasn't what he had said.
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