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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, January 18, 2012Davidoff: The Mets on trialI don’t know but yesterday seemed kinda odd
The District Attorney
Posted: January 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM | 34 comment(s)
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1. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 18, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4039443)The full Rubin Tweets are chronicled at Amazin' Avenue.
He's not allowing them to appeal (yet)
he can't deny their appeal
In Federal Court you usually cannot appeal until the case is completely over, however, a judge can allow you leave to appeal ahead of time.
Rakoff held that an appeal now would merely delay rather than expedite matters. I think he's completely wrong on that- I think he's trying to force a settlement, but has actually made one less likely- the Wilpons needed a "reality check" more than Picard, Rakoff's ruling only fed the Wilpons' delusions that they can win this or at least hold on to the Mets, and Picard has actually stopped negotiating settlements with other parties because he does not want to negotiate from a position of weakness- so Rakoff has thrown a monkey wrench into the whole Picard/Madoff recovery process, but he seems oblivious to it, he thinks he's right and is going to force this the way he wants it to go.
The problem is that Picard is also stubborn, and he's not hard up, he gets paid by SIPC (and not through recoveries as Rakoff seems to think), he can wait out Rakoff. One of these cases is going to trial, and eventually Picard is going to get his appeal- and it's not until AFTER that appeal (win or lose) that Picard is going to settle or try all these cases and wind this matter down.
a--Did the Mets hire the Red Sox medical staff?
b--This is why it's best to avoid Twittering at all costs. All those people do is rip everyone...
#(don malcom)-you idiot
Sounds like the Bonifay/Littlefield-era medical staff for the Pirates.
Really? I don't think these words mean what the writer thinks they mean.
Then there are the repeated missed diagnoses, of which Ike Davis' situation is only the most recent. If I were a New York Met, I can guarantee you I would insist on getting a second opinion from my own, trusted doctor on everything. I wouldn't rely on the team physicians or trainers for treatment, diagnosis -- any of it.
As for the Wilpons, Picard, and Rakoff, I suspect that the denial of Picard's appeal may end up being an empty victory. As others have pointed out (including JPWF1313 in this thread), Picard has every incentive NOT to settle, so the apparent leverage that Wilpon would seem to have based on Rakoff's earlier opinion, combined with Picard not being able to appeal it, is really a mirage. In the typical case, an unfavorable ruling like that and the inability to take an interlocutory appeal does pressure the losing party to settle. But this isn't the typical case. So Wilpon gets a trial, not a favorable settlement.
And a trial, that encompasses most of spring training and extends into the start of the season, should be the last thing at the worst time for the Wilpons. It will be a distraction for the team; it will generate negative publicity when a bad team is trying to sell tickets; it will air dirty laundry, and it may produce a judgment that -- even if not as bad as it could have been -- they still can't afford to pay. That judgment will then be the subject of cross-appeals (the Wilpons challenging their liability, Picard challenging the earlier ruling limiting the scope of his recovery), which will just keep the case and the headlines alive -- and which will keep the financial pressure on.
Since I find it very hard to believe that Fred Wilpon really wants this trial, and the airing of his financial dirty laundry, I believe it will all be pre-empted by a bankruptcy filing in March. Which would make for great fun if they do, in fact, have any minority investors prepared to actually pony up $20M each before then. Take their money in January, then declare bankruptcy in March. Hilarity ensues!
Ike Davis did seek a second opinion. Apparently both the Hospital for Special Surgery and his doctors in NC mis-diagnosed his injury. It happens – Hugh Laurie practically built his career on this.
I'll just assume Rubin was drunk-twittering.
Respected?
RESPECTED???
GET OFF YOUR KNEES, DAVIDOFF!!!
From the Deadspin article:
"• Sandy Alderson really is a straight shooter, generally, but that's too much spin."
No. #### this. #### this meme. Everything that's come out of Alderson's mouth since he signed on is dripping with slick, spittle covered spin. He's a ####### pimp. Way to sell out a life's work, you sleazy piece of ####.
[deep breath]
It's a shame. As soon as it became clear to Alderson that his job was simply pimping for the Wilpons he should have walked. If not before then, as soon as Jeffy was quoted as saying Alderson had complete authority wrt baseball decisions, which Wilpon would review on a case by case basis, Alderson should have had a well-publicized sitdown with Jeffy, then walked.
As for how the injury stuff could go on and on, this was a team that after having the same management group in place for a bunch of years was still bringing in Mike Jacobs and Little Sarge. I don't think we should expect them to know more about medical diagnoses than about finding baseball players. It's all of a piece.
Hyperbolize much?
Jon Rauch? JON ####### RAUCH???
[takes sedative, lies down, smiles weakly at pretty nurse]
I guess "relatively" is in the eye of the beholder, and Alderson's comment could have claimed a lot more/worse in defense of the Mets' handling of the Davis injury. Granted, he didn't deny specifically that the injury had been misdiagnosed, which it clearly was.
But I think what set Rubin off is that Alderson wouldn't just admit that missing the diagnosis DID, in fact, lead to an incorrect treatment that set back Davis' recovery. Candor is almost always the best approach, and teams should just learn that simple truth of PR. Like you said, mistakes in diagnosis with unusual injuries happen sometimes. If Alderson had just said that the doctors missed it, as did the ones providing the second opinion -- no real problem. He could have pointed out that they were conservative and acted appropriately in light of the diagnosis they DID have, not trying to rush Davis back.
The good thing about Rubin's rant is how revealing it was about the past -- Wagner and Putz in particular -- and collecting it all in one place. What a mess it's been.
Rubin's point wasn't that the diagnosis was missed.
Rubin's point was that Alderson LIED about the misdiagnosis, and claimed that the original treatment was correct and that it was just taking longer than originally expected.
And I agree.
EDIT: Coke to Sam M.
I still don’t see why he’s getting dumped on for what happened 5 years ago.
Thank you.
Ike Davis did seek a second opinion. Apparently both the Hospital for Special Surgery and his doctors in NC mis-diagnosed his injury. It happens – Hugh Laurie practically built his career on this.
The Mets and the Hospital for "Special" Surgery had already provided enough fodder for a whole season of House episodes. How did HSS survive the purge? Or is the Mets' team doctor the worst one on the hospital's staff?
Dr. Nick Rivera has a nationwide reputation in medical circles.
All of which Alderson can easily and reasonably point out, without claiming Davis was treated correctly. It's not that tough to just admit they got it wrong, that doctors (even really good ones) don't always get the diagnoses right, and you have to live with that sometimes. It doesn't mean anyone is being blamed; it's just being candid and thus creating an atmosphere in which the fans, over the long haul, have confidence in your pronouncements. The Mets could use that almost more than anything else right now -- but unfortunately, it can't/won't happen until there's a change in ownership.
Tweeting:
This makes a lot of sense, except. If the Mets think Wright is likely to bounce back, why not get his 2012 season on which the break even point is around 3 wins, exercise the option for 2013, then trade him?
Except, in Daniel Murphy the Mets already have a 2-3 win 3Bman on the roster. Leaving aside Wright's value as the only ballplayer left on the Mets most fans would recognize on the street, 1B and 3B are the only positions at which the Mets have a backup who's got a decent shot at being an average ML regular. Since the Mets attendance in 2012 has very little effect on whether they put a winning team on the field in 2016, I'd trade Wright as soon as anyone offered a legitimate prospect for him.
Assuming all else is equal, if we're talking about putting the best team on the field in 2012,
Murphy at 3B + 16m if spent on FAs + whatever the Mets might be able to get for Wright > David Wright
Hey, Alfonso Soriano would kill two of those birds with one trade! :-)
That's probably right, but nobody really thinks that's what would happen, do they? Wouldn't it be:
If Wright is traded for a prospect, I am skeptical (really, I'm worse than that, but let's leave it at skeptical) that the Mets wouldn't just knock payroll down from the now-projected $90M to $75M or so.
You could still argue that the Mets would be better off -- depends on the prospect they got, depends on whether they are better off just hitting rock bottom, and perhaps whether the backlash (if it happened) would help in getting rid of the Wilpons. Depends on a lot of things. But spending the money on a free agent? They are hoarding $.90 of every dollar they save. Wouldn't be any different with Wright -- at least until Fred is gone.
Well, no -- but that's because I think the Mets' season is going to be a disaster (defined as something between 65-70 wins). If they avert that -- say, somehow get their win total in the vicinity of 75 -- I think starting pitching is the single likeliest thing to accomplish the task. I think it would happen pretty much as described: Niese graduates from having some of the pieces in place to fully formed, solid mid-rotation starter; Pelfrey swings back over from the bad side of mediocre (2011) to the acceptable side (2010); and Johan somehow comes back to being some (significant) part of Johan. Combine those three things with the ever-reliable R.A. Dickey, and that is a pretty respectable major league rotation.
Certainly, it's a lot more credible than the line-up that includes no more than three bats -- if we're being optimistic -- that can possibly be projected to be better than league average offensively for their positions (1B, 3B, RF).* And on two of those (3B and RF), the offensive contributions are, to one degree or another, lessened by defensive woes. The remaining one (1B) is an injury question mark, and the offensive level remains still to be established. To put it mildly, the line-up is a mess. You have to be very optimistic to see how the starting pitching saves the season from disaster; you have to be really taking the high-end hallucinogenics to find salvation in the offense.
* - I left out Daniel Murphy and 2B purposely here -- he does project to be well above average for the position offensively, but the defense is just so questionable . . . . I have real doubts they will actually go ahead with any plan to stick with him as the everyday second baseman. We shall see.
They're moving in the fences, which theoretically will help the batters and hurt the pitchers.
And we expect that pitching will be the team's saving grace? I don't get it.
Yes, the offense loses Reyes and that will certainly hurt. But I don't understand why we assume that Santana comes back, Niese takes a step forward and Pelfrey rebounds. To me, that seems a whole lot less likely than Duda (.957 OPS), Tejada (.745 OPS), Thole (.709 OPS) and Bay (.758 OPS)approach their 2nd half OPS marks over a full season.
If Davis, Duda and Wright combine for an .850 OPS and the rest are average or slightly below average for their position (ranked 15th-20th in OPS) -- how is this offense dreadful?
It seems you have to assume the worst to get there - that Murphy can't stay healthy, that Tejada can't replicate what he did last year, that Duda suffers a sophomore jinx, that Wright doesn't rebound at all with a healthy back and that Davis regresses.
Given equal health to the pitchers and hitters, I just can't see the pitching be more of a (relative) strength for the Mets.
They're not just losing Reyes -- they're also losing more than half a season (98 games) of Beltran, and Beltran at a 150 OPS+. I'm certainly NOT assuming that Santana will come back, or that Niese takes a step forward, or that Pelfrey will rebound. I'm just saying that if anything is going to get them from mid-60s to mid-70s in wins, that is the more likely scenario. As I said, while I think starting pitching is the best chance to keep the ship from sinking completely, I actually think it's going to sink.
I have already assumed that Duda, Wright and Davis are above-average for their positions (at least offensively) -- but that the rest of the offense is not. Since this is one of those subject on which I would love to be wrong on this, I'm certainly not going to dig in my heels and argue about it. I hope that Tejada and Thole grow as hitters, and that Bay can recover somehow, some way. But I see both those positions, and CF, as serious offensive holes. And second base is just too up in the air in terms both of what they really intend, and whether Murphy can handle the position and stay healthy, for me to believe the Mets will get his offensive contribution out of that position.
Moving in the fences might make the hitters' numbers look better on the surface, but it isn't likely to improve most of their actual value. I actually expect both Wright and Bay will now be better suited to the park, and so they actually should be projected to truly "better" hitters, at least marginally. But Tejada and Thole? If anything, shorter fences should allow outfielders to play them even tighter, cutting off space that they need as line-drive, power-starved hitters. The biggest net effect will probably be to benefit Duda and Bay on defense.
You have to be a really bad hitter to be a real hole at C. (Now, if Mike Nickeas is somehow playing every day...)
CF hit for a 735 OPS last year, ZIPS has Torres projected for 705; that is definitely something to be worried about.
I think the offense will be ok next year; they were quite good last year. Yes they are losing all of Reyes and half of a great season from Beltran, but you've got Davis back for a full year, plus hopefully a healthy year out of Wright, and I'm going to assume Murphy is going to be playing. By Ok I mean they could be average or so. The pitching pretty much terrifies me. It was bad last year, and they didn't really deal with any attrition to the rotation.
I would be able to accept a poor season a lot better if I knew the Wilpons would be gone by next year or so.
But you grant that the lineup has three spots above average. If Murphy stays healthy, that's four spots. I just see the other 4 spots being close to league average. Here's the NL averages for those positions last year
C - .709 OPS
SS - .688 OPS
LF - .748 OPS
CF - .742 OPS
Thole and Tejada should be right around league average. ZiPS projects a .763 OPS for Bay, putting him in the same boat. If the Mets' offense is average or better in 7 of the 8 spots, I just don't see it being an anchor.
But for the rest of the spots, I pretty much agree, though I could see CF being a problem.
The Giants were the worst team in the NL in runs scored last year. They had five positions that were 50 points of OPS below average and only 1 that was 50 points above. I just don't see the Mets matching that in either direction.
I can’t believe they can’t get an NRI better than Chuckie James and Garrett Olson. Or that they intend to have Nickeas on the roster.
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