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Sunday, October 24, 2010

Dayton Moore: Organization better now than four years ago

Start the parade! Dayton Moore almost has the Royal wave down pat.

“Overall, the organization is much better than it has been since we started this process. We’ve had four drafts and we’ve had three draft classes out there playing in the minors. The farm system was near the bottom in baseball four years ago and now, thanks to the great work people here have done, it’s near the top.

“And certainly the free-agent signings and the trades we’ve made because of those signings have also helped booster this system and the organization. Alberto Callaspo, Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth—we were able to use those guys and multiply our numbers to get guys on our team either next year or in the next two years.”

...“You have to have a long-term perspective. I’ve heard people say that they’re tired of us ‘rebuilding’ every year. Well, we’re not ‘rebuilding.’ We’re building. We have nothing to rebuild from. We haven’t won anything since 1985. I guess you could say we’ve been rebuilding since 1985.

“The exciting thing about all of this is, and it’s really early to say this, but this wave of players we have in the Instructional League now is more talented than the wave of players that is about to come to Kansas City – the Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas wave. We have a wave beneath that that is even better.”

Repoz Posted: October 24, 2010 at 10:05 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, prospect reports, royals, scouting

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   1. villageidiom Posted: October 24, 2010 at 11:34 AM (#3674574)
You have to have a long-term perspective. I’ve heard people say that they’re tired of us ‘rebuilding’ every year. Well, we’re not ‘rebuilding.’ We’re building. We have nothing to rebuild from.
Refreshing honesty.
   2. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 24, 2010 at 11:49 AM (#3674575)
Also an interesting/refreshing acknowledgment that he has signed the crappy FAs for flipping purposes and not because he thought they would contribute to the Royals winning games.

On one hand you can come back with the notion that one should not expect to be able to get something of value for a crappy FA, but in a world where Ned Coletti has a job and hands out real prospects every year for a couple months of Podsednik or Octavio Dotel, that really isn't true.
   3. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 24, 2010 at 12:27 PM (#3674584)
Moore doesn't get enough credit around here for the farm system. It's legitimately a fantastic group; with a normal development curve and some patching in around the edges this team could be a significant competitor in 2013+. Moore still has plenty to prove that he can augment his prospects, but he's accomplished his primary goal of building a system full of players that project to be quality major leaguers.
   4. Chris in Wicker Park Posted: October 24, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3674643)
And just wait until World Series veteran Jeff Francoeur shows up!
   5. Steve Sparks Flying Everywhere Posted: October 24, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3674852)
It seems that successful teams with homegrown talent also make smart trades using their prospects. I'm wondering if Dayton has the ability to trade for one or two players in the majors with limited service time to complement the guys coming up from the farm. Or should the Royals wait another year before making any major moves?
   6. Walt Davis Posted: October 25, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3675029)
it’s near the top.

If this is true, he's done his job.

And if it's true, they probably need to get rid of him soon in favor of a GM with a clue about how to build an ML roster.

Refreshing honesty.

I suppose but there's also this unintentionally humurous bit:

I’ve heard people say that they’re tired of us ‘rebuilding’ every year. ... I guess you could say we’ve been rebuilding since 1985.

Well, who could be tired of that? :-)

It's legitimately a fantastic group; with a normal development curve and some patching in around the edges this team could be a significant competitor in 2013+.

Really? That seems awfully soon. The 2010 team was awful and not young and I don't see the 2011 team necessarily being any better. The Greinke contract expires after 2012 (DeJesus also gone) and those instructional leaguers are probably 5 years away. Unless Gordon and Kila turn into real MLers (although one is out of a job as soon as Hosmer arrives), you're counting on a whole lot of ML talent debuting in the next year so that they've rounded into near-prime by 2013.

Without question, Butler, Moutsaka, Hosmer could be a nice hitting core come 2013 but where are the other pieces and particularly the pitching coming from. The best pitchers I noticed in browsing their ml stats were Duffy (hurt?), Dwyer and Crow but it's hard for me to see any of them (much less all of them) being effective ML starters as soon as 2013.

I'm not a prospect maven so I'm not claiming expert insight. But I can read a minor-league stat line well enough (though I know park/league factors for ####) and I know that a built-from-within team that's going to be competitive in 2013 should have most of those players in the majors by 2010-11 so they've learned a thing or two by 2013. So who do you see on the 2013 Royals who should be average or better in 2013? I would guess only maybe 5-7 guys -- Butler, Hosmer, Moutsakas, Soria, maybe one of those 3 pitchers, maybe Gaby Hernandez, maybe Alex Gordon (or Kila although that would require moving Hosmer to LF I'd think), possibly Aviles (though he'll be 32).

That's a lot of filling-in.
   7. RollingWave Posted: October 25, 2010 at 02:42 AM (#3675041)
well he's correct in that they're better than 4 years ago... if only because it's very hard to be worse.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 25, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3675047)

It seems that successful teams with homegrown talent also make smart trades using their prospects. I'm wondering if Dayton has the ability to trade for one or two players in the majors with limited service time to complement the guys coming up from the farm. Or should the Royals wait another year before making any major moves?


The Greinke deal will probably determine whether Dayton is worth a darn as a GM, or he's merely a good scouting director.


Without question, Butler, Moutsaka, Hosmer could be a nice hitting core come 2013 but where are the other pieces and particularly the pitching coming from. The best pitchers I noticed in browsing their ml stats were Duffy (hurt?), Dwyer and Crow but it's hard for me to see any of them (much less all of them) being effective ML starters as soon as 2013.


The pitching I'm not really concerned about. Mike Montgomery is likely a Top 25 prospect. Duffy is the guy that walked away from baseball for a few months, and when he came back somehow his velocity had improved and he was pretty darn good down the stretch. John Lamb took a huge leap forward and could be a Top 100 prospect this winter. And then there's a bunch of depth guys that look intriguing - Tim Collins, Buddy Baumann, Noel Arguelles, Aaron Crow, Louis Coleman, Chris Dwyer, Tyler Sample, Tim Melville, etc. Its the hitters that I'm concerned about. They have Moose and Hosmer and Myers, but pretty much no depth after that. And its more than likely one will be great, onje will be an okayish regular, and one will bust completely.

But still, if you're going to build a small market team, you need to have a great farm system, and the Royals have a great farm system. They have a great shot of at least being mediocre by 2013. Getting from mediocre to serious contender will require a couple shrewd trades - where I don't have much faith in Dayton - and frankly, some luck.

Here is John Sickels review of the Royals system
   9. Walt Davis Posted: October 25, 2010 at 04:59 AM (#3675079)
See my comments in the Sickels thread -- does look like a very promising system. Still looks too young to me to be competitive by 2013 and possibly mediocre would be stretching it as it looks like about half the team would be 22. But, yeah, somewhere around 2015 ...
   10. SG Posted: October 25, 2010 at 12:41 PM (#3675145)
Refreshing honesty.


Maybe I'm too cynical (actually, I know for a fact I'm too cynical) but to me that reads more like someone trying to explain away his team's awful performance at the MLB level during his tenure and trying to buy himself more time.

I'm not saying what Moore appears to have done with the farm system isn't impressive, because it sure seems to be. I'm just saying indicting your predecessors for the terrible job they didn't doesn't read like "honesty" to me.
   11. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2010 at 01:13 PM (#3675159)
I would actually like to see the Royals relevant again. The Royals of my youth were one of baseball's great franchises and I'd like to see them strong again. It will be interesting to see how Moore adds these guys to the big team and if he's up to mixing in a few veterans and players from other orgs. Even the Rays had to go out and get a Bartlett and a Garza and a Pena and a Zobrist.
   12. Zach Posted: October 25, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3675215)
“The exciting thing about all of this is, and it’s really early to say this, but this wave of players we have in the Instructional League now is more talented than the wave of players that is about to come to Kansas City – the Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas wave. We have a wave beneath that that is even better.”

I was skeptical, but you could make a reasonable argument that way:

Current wave:
Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, Lamb, Montgomery

Instructional league:
Myers, Eibner, Crow, Colon

depending on how you view tools, you could put Melville, Cheslor Cuthbert or a couple of other guys in the second group as well.

I'd still take the first group over the second, but it's closer than I thought.
   13. Zach Posted: October 25, 2010 at 02:26 PM (#3675223)
Maybe I'm too cynical (actually, I know for a fact I'm too cynical) but to me that reads more like someone trying to explain away his team's awful performance at the MLB level during his tenure and trying to buy himself more time.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other. He is pleading for more time, but the case for sticking it out a couple more years seems pretty strong.

When Moore was hired, what I wanted most was a strong minor league system. Since that's what we ended up getting, it seems whiny to complain about the major team not improving as quickly.
   14. Zach Posted: October 25, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3675417)
I'd still take the first group over the second, but it's closer than I thought.

Thinking about it more, I'm back to skepticism. After Meyers, is there anybody in the instructional league who's a good bet to be as good as Hosmer?
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 25, 2010 at 06:25 PM (#3675429)
After Meyers, is there anybody in the instructional league who's a good bet to be as good as Hosmer?


Brett Eibner is drawing rave reviews but has yet to play a pro game. Cheslor Cuthbert has performed pretty well but just started playing low A ball late this summer. Clint Robinson is another Kila - guy that probably should be filler, but keeps producing.

So like I said, not much depth beyond the big three (Hos, Moose, Myers).

Also, the Star was reporting that Myers is already shagging fly balls. While they say he will start next year at catcher, it seems like they're already preparing for the inevitable.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: October 25, 2010 at 07:10 PM (#3675462)
Back to the "honesty" question ...

really, the issue is that "rebuilding" is GM PR-speak for "we are going to suck for the next few years."

Perhaps some polite fans phrase it as "we're tired of rebuilding every year" but what the polite and impolite fans are really saying is "we are tired of sucking every year."

So, on the one hand, Moore sort of saying "we're not rebuilding, we've sucked for a long time" is "refreshing honesty" ... on the other hand, the fans are saying "we know, THAT's the problem ... and you're telling us we've got another 2-4 years to wait just like the last 4 guys did!!"
   17. geonose Posted: October 25, 2010 at 07:12 PM (#3675466)
After Meyers, is there anybody in the instructional league who's a good bet to be as good as Hosmer?

You are asking for a lot there. There are only a handful of prospects in all of baseball who are a good bet to be as good as Hosmer.

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