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Sunday, August 22, 2021

Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera joins 500 home run club

Miguel Cabrera is now a member of one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball.

Cabrera put an exclamation point on his career when he became the 28th member of the 500 home run club with a sixth-inning blast for the Detroit Tigers on Sunday against the Blue Jays in Toronto.

The 38-year-old Cabrera connected on a 1-1 pitch from left-hander Steven Matz, sending the ball over the scoreboard in right-center field. The 400-foot homer tied the score at 1. The Tigers won the game 5-3 in 11 innings.

The 14,685 fans at Rogers Centre rose for a standing ovation as Cabrera rounded the bases. After celebrating with his teammates, the Tigers slugger came out of the dugout to accept a curtain call, taking off his helmet and bowing to the crowd behind Detroit’s dugout.

“It’s something special for my country, for my family, to be able to do this,’’ he said. “I’m really happy.’‘

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 22, 2021 at 07:43 PM | 59 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: miguel cabrera

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   1. caspian88 Posted: August 22, 2021 at 08:00 PM (#6035620)
I had honestly forgotten Cabrera even had a chance at 500. I knew he was still playing, but had you asked me I would have guessed he was somewhere around 475 and expected to reach 500 by the mid-2030's.

Fewer than 50 hits away from 3000, too.
   2. Hank Gillette Posted: August 22, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6035627)
From 2017 to today, Cabrera has given the Tigers -1.0 WAR. For the same period, the Tigers have given Cabrera $141 million.
   3. Booey Posted: August 22, 2021 at 08:58 PM (#6035631)
We'll see other players reach 500 HR (though not for a while), but unless some changes are made to decrease strikeouts and increase contact and batting average, Miggy could be the last career .300 hitter. I wouldn't bet on any of the active players who are currently over .300 to remain there by the time they retire.
   4. The Honorable Ardo Posted: August 22, 2021 at 09:01 PM (#6035633)
500 home runs, career BA .310 or higher:

Babe Ruth
Ted Williams
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
   5. Sweatpants Posted: August 22, 2021 at 10:08 PM (#6035658)
Albert Pujols' BA after hitting his 500th was .321. It was still .308 when he hit number 600.
   6. Booey Posted: August 22, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6035663)
You missed Jimmie Foxx (.325).
   7. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 22, 2021 at 10:36 PM (#6035666)
From 2017 to today, Cabrera has given the Tigers -1.0 WAR. For the same period, the Tigers have given Cabrera $141 million.


And from 2008-2016 Cabrera gave them 51.6 WAR and the Tigers gave him $179.6 million.

So they are now nearly even Stevens!
   8. The Honorable Ardo Posted: August 22, 2021 at 10:59 PM (#6035669)
My bad, Booey. Foxx, Ramirez, Pujols, Cabrera... four of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time.

A fine ovation from the Rogers Centre crowd. It included a lot of Windsor-area Tigers fans who had traveled to Toronto to see their team play for the first time in nearly two years.
   9. The Duke Posted: August 22, 2021 at 11:39 PM (#6035678)
It’s a long slog to 3000. It’s still almost a year away, right? Maybe by next years all star break if he isn’t hurt along the way ?
   10. The Honorable Ardo Posted: August 22, 2021 at 11:47 PM (#6035679)
Not that long, Duke. He's at 2955 with 36 games left on the Tigers' schedule. Even "old stiff" Miggy (post-2016) has racked up 436 hits in 460 games. I give him a 25% chance of making it this year.
   11. Booey Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:05 AM (#6035684)
Next player to get 500 HR? Trout?

Next player (assuming Miggy gets there) to get 3000 hits?
   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:33 AM (#6035689)
Next player to get 500 HR? Trout?


Well unless you don't think Cruz will play another 2-3 years. Dude's hit 7 in 24 games for the Rays already. He's got another 30 odd games this year, maybe hits 10 more, leaving him over 450. Needs to 2 decent seasons to get there.
   13. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:44 AM (#6035690)
I guess it speaks to the longevity and relative consistency of Cruz that I wouldn't have been able to tell you he was anywhere close to 500.
   14. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:45 AM (#6035691)
And you know who is just behind Trout(310) on 295? This generations Soriano because he's available! Chris Davis.....
   15. Howie Menckel Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:52 AM (#6035692)
Big Papi the previous 500-HR guy

active players who are already there or at least halfway home or could, just possibly, get there in 2021:

1. Albert Pujols (21, 41) 677

2. Miguel Cabrera (19, 38) 500

3. Nelson Cruz (17, 40) 443

[4. Robinson Cano (16, 38) 334]
5. Giancarlo Stanton (12, 31) 332
6. Justin Upton (15, 33) 324
7. Joey Votto (15, 37) 323
8. Evan Longoria (14, 35) 314
9. Mike Trout (11, 29) 310

10. Ryan Zimmerman (16, 36) 281
11. Paul Goldschmidt (11, 33) 268
12. Freddie Freeman (12, 31) 267
13. Andrew McCutchen (13, 34) 264
14. J.D. Martinez (11, 33) 261
15. Nolan Arenado (9, 30) 260
16. Carlos Santana (12, 35) 257
17. Bryce Harper (10, 28) 255

18. Anthony Rizzo (11, 31) 246
19. Manny Machado (10, 28) 245
20. Josh Donaldson (11, 35) 242
21. Kyle Seager (11, 33) 236
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:54 AM (#6035693)
3000 hits

active players who are already there or at least halfway home or could, just possibly, get there in 2021:

1. Albert Pujols (21, 41) 3295

2. Miguel Cabrera (19, 38) 2955
[3. Robinson Cano (16, 38) 2624]
4. Yadier Molina (18, 38) 2089
5. Joey Votto (15, 37) 2005

6. Nelson Cruz (17, 40) 1883
7. Elvis Andrus (13, 32) 1837
8. Ryan Zimmerman (16, 36) 1833
9. Evan Longoria (14, 35) 1802
10. Andrew McCutchen (13, 34) 1800
11. Asdrubal Cabrera (15, 35) 1757
12. Justin Upton (15, 33) 1748
13. Jose Altuve (11, 31) 1739
14. Starlin Castro (12, 31) 1722
15. Freddie Freeman (12, 31) 1662
16. Eric Hosmer (11, 31) 1603
17. Michael Brantley (13, 34) 1552
18. Paul Goldschmidt (11, 33) 1528

19. Buster Posey (12, 34) 1470

............

[25. Mike Trout (11, 29) 1419]
   17. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 01:14 AM (#6035697)
So it must be quiz time: Hits leaders for 2017-21. One small hint -- it came up in the Cubs-Royals game the other day. Second hint, other than C (and P but give Ohtani some time), you can make a full lineup (although one of the OF plays some IF too).

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

EDIT: Further useless hints. I wouldn't consider any of these to be "obvious" (maybe one) but there are a couple you'll say "oh yeah, that guy" when you see their names. Only 4 of them have hit over 300 in this span.
   18. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 23, 2021 at 01:44 AM (#6035700)
Whit Merrifield might be #1.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 04:33 AM (#6035701)
Indeed Merrifield is #1, hence the Cubs-Royal mention. He will be one of our corner OF (and is the one who plays some IF). I suppose our other corner OF used to play IF too.
   20. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 23, 2021 at 05:29 AM (#6035702)
Indeed Merrifield is #1, hence the Cubs-Royal mention. He will be one of our corner OF (and is the one who plays some IF).

If Merrifield's in the outfield, then let me guess Jose Altuve for the 2B slot.
   21. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 23, 2021 at 05:33 AM (#6035703)
And I'll guess Xander Bogaerts for the SS slot, and Mookie Betts in the OF.

I think the trick is finding players who stayed mostly healthy (and in the majors) over the whole 2017-2021 period.
   22. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:43 AM (#6035706)
I suppose our other corner OF used to play IF too.

Nick Castellanos

I'll also guess Joey Votto, Alex Bregman and Javy Baez.

   23. JJ1986 Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:59 AM (#6035707)
Arenado?
   24. RickG Posted: August 23, 2021 at 07:52 AM (#6035709)
Tim Anderson?
   25. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:09 AM (#6035711)
Freddie Freeman at 1B?
   26. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:26 AM (#6035713)
He's at 2955 with 36 games left on the Tigers' schedule. Even "old stiff" Miggy (post-2016) has racked up 436 hits in 460 games. I give him a 25% chance of making it this year.


Miggy has 28 hits in Detroit's last 36 games (playing in 32 of them). So, no 3K this year. See you in mid-May 2022.

EDIT: To put it another way, Miggy had 114 AB in those games, so to get another 45 hits in the same number of AB, he'd have to hit .395 the rest of the way. So, no.
   27. Rally Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6035717)
It’s been easy to pencil in a has been player the last few years since the Tigers were playing for draft picks. But that’s over, the team is currently within striking distance of .500 with more good young talent on the way.

I’d put the over/under for his career HR total at 511. He’ll keep playing next year since he has the 3000 milestone left. Once that’s out of the way my guess is he’ll see reduced playing time. But how long could that last? Roster spots are at a premium and for a team trying to win, hard to use one on a part time DH who can no longer get around on a fastball. Probably will work out a buyout/retirement at that point.
   28. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: August 23, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6035744)
Marcus Semien? He has been a valuable fantasy player for several years running.
   29. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6035753)
Jose Ramirez hasn't been guessed yet. He's been very solid 2017-21. Looked him up - 636 hits.
   30. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6035754)
Christian Yelich also hasn't been guessed yet.
   31. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6035755)
Anthony Rendon is my last guess
   32. CStallion Posted: August 23, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6035759)
Trey Turner?
   33. bfan Posted: August 23, 2021 at 12:35 PM (#6035772)
and Mookie Betts in the OF.

I think the trick is finding players who stayed mostly healthy (and in the majors) over the whole 2017-2021 period.


In the relevant period here, Mookie Betts has played in 581 of his team's 671 games, or 86.5%. That translates to playing 140 games in a 162 game season. Mookie Betts is exciting and talented and by god has played for the Red Sox and Dodgers, but he has not been mostly healthy.
   34. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 23, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6035784)
1. Albert Pujols (21, 41) 3295

2. Miguel Cabrera (19, 38) 2955
[3. Robinson Cano (16, 38) 2624]
4. Yadier Molina (18, 38) 2089
5. Joey Votto (15, 37) 2005

6. Nelson Cruz (17, 40) 1883
7. Elvis Andrus (13, 32) 1837
8. Ryan Zimmerman (16, 36) 1833
9. Evan Longoria (14, 35) 1802
10. Andrew McCutchen (13, 34) 1800
11. Asdrubal Cabrera (15, 35) 1757
12. Justin Upton (15, 33) 1748
13. Jose Altuve (11, 31) 1739
14. Starlin Castro (12, 31) 1722
15. Freddie Freeman (12, 31) 1662
16. Eric Hosmer (11, 31) 1603
17. Michael Brantley (13, 34) 1552
18. Paul Goldschmidt (11, 33) 1528

19. Buster Posey (12, 34) 1470


Who on that list would you bet money will get to 3,000 besides Miggy? I guess I only see three guys that I could imagine making it: Cano (who at one point seemed virtually certain), Altuve, and Freeman (though they need a lot of things to go right, too). But nobody else there has any chance, right?

And as for Trout, he just can't stay healthy enough for the career counting stats to get to historic levels. Trout's going to end up with 500+ HRs, close to 3000 hits, etc., and when I tell my grandkids that Trout was possibly the greatest player I ever saw, they'll be like, "too bad he got hurt all the time, or else he would have done XYZ".
   35. toratoratora Posted: August 23, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6035814)
Trout's going to end up with 500+ HRs, close to 3000 hits, etc., and when I tell my grandkids that Trout was possibly the greatest player I ever saw, they'll be like, "too bad he got hurt all the time, or else he would have done XYZ".

Nah. They're gonna say, "Didn't you see Barry Bonds?"
   36. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6035868)
Sorry, time difference ...

1. Merrifield
2.
3.
4. Freeman
5. Arenado
6. Castellanos (I thought this would be tough)
7. Altuve
8.
9.
10. Bogaerts

The other guesses are wrong

Some hints in no particular order

One has a MVP
One could possibly be our starting SS
One will get our pitchers mad at us
One is technically our starting 2B

EDIT: Mookie is 12th, Turner 13th, both good guesses
   37. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 05:47 PM (#6035873)
One has a MVP


Jose Abreu
   38. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#6035876)
Looked up MLB hit leaders over those seasons. Charlie Blackmon is on the list
   39. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:03 PM (#6035878)
Nah. They're gonna say, "Didn't you see Barry Bonds?"


Nah, what loving grandparent would allow their grandkids to learn about Barry Bonds? But if they did say that, the answer would be, "Yes, I saw Barry Bonds. Trout was better."
   40. CStallion Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:03 PM (#6035879)
LeMahieu? After seeing Blackmon...
   41. CStallion Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:10 PM (#6035882)
Re #15 - probably two of Trout, Harper and Stanton make it to 500 but not much beyond.
   42. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#6035885)
Tim Anderson is probably the shortstop.
   43. Mefisto Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:25 PM (#6035886)
@5 Others were over .310 at the time they hit #500, Aaron and Mays most obviously.
   44. SoSH U at work Posted: August 23, 2021 at 06:30 PM (#6035889)
Lindor?

   45. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6035896)
Blackmon (ummm, that's cheating :-), LeMahieu (I thought the reasonably obvious one) and Abreu are correct. Anderson (17) and Lindor (16) are not.

1. Merrifield LF or RF
2. Blackmon CF
3. LeMahieu 2B (based on hits)
4. Freeman 1B
5. Arenado 3B
6. Castellanos LF or RF
7. Altuve bench
8. Abreu DH
9.
10. Bogaerts ??

That leaves our potential starting SS. Maybe think about why he's only our potential starting SS.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 07:19 PM (#6035898)
Merrifield is on 774 hits which isn't too bad given 2020 and 2021 to date is only a bit over a full season's worth. In 2018, nobody made it to 200 hits. Adam Frazier and David Fletcher currently lead in 2021 at 146 and 145 but plenty in the hunt for the league lead and 200 hits.
   47. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 23, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6035903)
That leaves our potential starting SS. Maybe think about why he's only our potential starting SS.

Didi Gregorius?
   48. CStallion Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:29 PM (#6035912)
Potential SS... Baez?

Or is this someone that used to play some SS but plays elsewhere now?
   49. chisoxcollector Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6035914)
Manny Machado?
   50. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 23, 2021 at 09:29 PM (#6035919)
Mookie Betts has played in 581 of his team's 671 games, or 86.5%. That translates to playing 140 games in a 162 game season. Mookie Betts is exciting and talented and by god has played for the Red Sox and Dodgers, but he has not been mostly healthy.

No? How would we describe 86.5%? Almost-mostly healthy?
   51. DL from MN Posted: August 23, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6035921)
Blackmon (ummm, that's cheating :-)


Only sort of. He led the league in hits during one of those seasons. That was a good tip-off.
   52. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6035928)
#9 is Machado.

1. Merrifield LF or RF
2. Blackmon CF
3. LeMahieu 2B (based on hits)
4. Freeman 1B
5. Arenado 3B
6. Castellanos LF or RF
7. Altuve bench
8. Abreu DH
9. Machado bench
10. Bogaerts SS

Had you asked me not that long ago, I never would have guessed that XB would outhit Machado but he has a slim 137 OPS+ to 132 OPS+ lead for 2018-21. Neither TZ nor DRS rates these guys as good SS so we have to give the nod to XB even though Machado wins on dWAR.
   53. bfan Posted: August 24, 2021 at 07:41 AM (#6035965)
No? How would we describe 86.5%? Almost-mostly healthy?


I really do not mean to pick on this topic, but Mookie Betts is one of those guys who I believe benefits from the "halo effect", and it bothers me. The halo effect is when a person has a great, abundant, evident skill at very high levels, and then all of the sudden, everything they do is great, even it is well outside their core, great skill. Mookie Betts is a great, talented baseball player, so we are blinded by the halo effect, and there are no flaws: he is a humanitarian, is kind to pets and kids; is very smart and durable for his team. Well, he is not durable.
   54. Rally Posted: August 24, 2021 at 08:29 AM (#6035969)
But is a legitimately good bowler.
   55. Mefisto Posted: August 24, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6035983)
How would we describe 86.5%? Almost-mostly healthy?


10% healthier than Larry Walker.
   56. bfan Posted: August 24, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6035991)
10% healthier than Larry Walker.


At least. I just looked at that; wow, Walker had a dinged up career, didn't he? Was it one chronic problem, or a constant stream of small injuries.
   57. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 24, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6036000)
Well, he is not durable.


2017-21 games played / 2017-20 games played

1. Merrifield LF or RF - 649/525
2. Blackmon CF - 631/514
3. LeMahieu 2B (based on hits) - 596/478
4. Freeman 1B - 621/497
5. Arenado 3B - 638/518
6. Castellanos LF or RF - 628/525
7. Altuve bench - 574/462
8. Abreu DH - 622/503
9. Machado bench - 652/534
10. Bogaerts SS - 612/495

Betts - 581/494

I'm assuming a counting stat like hits tends to equate towards plate attempts/games played, which would put these guys near the top. Betts may not have ++ durability, but outside of this year I really don't see his durability as a negative issue.
   58. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 24, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6036003)
Not counting 1952-53 when he missed most of his games while he was in Korea, after he turned 30 Ted Williams averaged only 118 games a year. Even with the adjusted rules for AB/PA he only qualified for the batting championship in 5 of those 9 years. And Joe Dimaggio only played 140 or more games 5 times in his 13 seasons.
   59. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 24, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#6036008)
Roster spots are at a premium and for a team trying to win,


Assumes facts not in evidence.

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