Dewan: Could the Padres be the Mariners of 2010?

And then pull an ultimo double-suck in 2011?

Last year, the Seattle Mariners won 85 games after only 61 victories in 2008, an improvement of 24 games, the best such improvement in Major League Baseball in 2009. This year the San Diego Padres are off to an excellent start with a 17-11 record and are in second place in the National League West, just percentage points behind the San Francisco Giants. That’s an excellent uptick (so far) for the Padres after going 75-87 in 2009. One of the keys for the Mariners in 2009 was their defense, and defense is also playing a major role for the Padres this season.

...In the National League, could the Padres be the Mariners of 2010? Few analysts predicted the Padres for a good season, but they have the third best record in the National League. Last year the Padres had the worst keystone combination in the senior circuit. Their second base and shortstop defense cost them 34 runs. This year, San Diego’s double play combination (David Eckstein and Everth Cabrera) has saved seven runs defensively thus far, a very nice improvement. The Padres center fielders (Scott Hairston and Tony Gwynn) have saved eight runs with their gloves and throwing arms. As a team, the Padres currently have the third best defense in baseball with a total of 23 defensive runs saved.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the antithesis of the Padres. They are in last place in the NL West and it’s their defense that’s hurting them. Their defense has cost them 17 runs thus far this year, the worst total in all of baseball (tied with the Kansas City Royals). Comparing their total to the Padres, the 40 -run difference translates into a difference of four games attributable to defense (using the 10-runs-per-win rule of thumb). The Dodgers (11-16) trail the Padres by five-and-a-half games. Defense matters.