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Friday, August 05, 2022
Didi Gregorius’ time in Philadelphia is over.
Thursday afternoon, the Phillies announced they released Gregorius, the veteran ex-Yankees shortstop. In a corresponding move, Philadelphia activated infielder Jean Segura from the 60-day IL.
Gregorius, 32, is hitting .210 with a .567 OPS in 63 games this season. He is due to be a free agent at season’s end, though the Phillies are still on the hook for the $5.5 million he is owed through the rest of the season. Should any team take a flier and sign Gregorius for the stretch run, they would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum.
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1. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 05, 2022 at 11:29 AM (#6090125)Didi Gregorious in the rest of 2018: .254/.311/.436
Didi Gregorious from 2019-present: .232/.284/.401
If you want to argue that something fundamentally changed for Didi in April 2018, knock yourself out.
But how little do you have going on in your life, Tom, that you decided to dig up a thread from four years ago to prove that I made a mistake? I can remember a single statement you, or anyone else made, about baseball more than about 30 minutes ago, right, wrong or indifferent.
This is such a trash thing to post. You have more than 49,000 comments here snapper, this kind of #### is ridiculous to post here.
My sense is that baseball historians and researchers can account for this phenomenon.
No idea on Didi but I think it's correct that the defensive metrics don't really do anything with DPs (unless they result in an error). They cover range but all of that occurs before the first force out; they cover the accuracy of throws. I don't know that they incorporate any element of turning the DP. That would be difficult, maybe impossible, to capture. Too many elements unrelated to the fielder's skill -- whether it's a DP opportunity to begin with, the speed of both runners, whether it was a hit and run, whether the other IF gets to the bag in time. As far as I know, there's also no adjustment for the fielder having the choice to go for the easier out.
I'd start by looking at whether there's substantial variation in DPs turned per opportunity (conditional on a ground ball) and how many runs that translates to. If it's big enough to worry about then try to figure out a method for measuring it. If it's small-ish, stick it in some "team defensive adjustment" for accounting purposes.
Over the last few years the Phils defense has been pretty lousy so it wouldn't surprise me if they were even worse at things that require teamwork and coordination but it might be hard to separate each individual's role in that.
EDIT: d'uh, it's because monsters are only allowed to go 5 innings now then a parade of anonymous monsters come in to finish things. They'll never compile enough career stats to displace Snapper.
As someone who lives in PA and watches a fair number of Phillies games, I was stunned when he was given a 2-year deal mostly on the basis of being "decent enough" in the shortened 2020.
Gregorius struck me as just barely hanging on in multiple aspects of his play with the Phillies, even in 2020. I'll agree with Walt in #14 that the Phillies defense as a whole has been bad so it hasn't stuck out perhaps as much as it would have otherwise and its hard to determine if DP awkwardness is on Didi, Segura, or Hoskins.
Regardless, I did tell my dad the day the Phillies signed him that he'd be released before the 2 years are up so I'm feeling good about being right about a trivial thing. Gregorius just always looked baked. I blame Girardi for the Phillies signing him like that (and then playing him which made it worse).
You don't get my point at all. It has nothing to do with posting on BBTF. I like talking about baseball, we all like talking about baseball.
The point is that digging something out from four years ago to show that someone was wrong, about something people get wrong all the time, is very strange, and very petty.
There were others that also posted on that thread that Didi had improved.
What the hell does he have to defend?
Thanks for the insightful input. LOL.
First you wrote, "Screw you, pal." Then you wrote, "Thanks for your input, clown."
Is this your final answer?
Since you were the guy who wrote, "No, the contention is you're inexplicably behaving like a narcissistic douche," then yes, you are the shitposter.
People recalling old threads is not uncommon on this site. People responding to a bump in the way you did most certainly is.
Glad I could clear that up.
People recalling old threads when they were right about something is really not uncommon (one of your fellow Mets fans does it somewhat frequently). And he didn't single out Snapper (that was you), who wasn't the only poster suggesting that Didi's start signaled a new change in ability.
You completely overreacted. But I guess embarrassing yourself on this site is kind of your new thing.
What a perfect description of people who like to play the victim. I need to remember this.
But yeah, superior analysis.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/year/2018/position/ss/sort/defWARBR/count/81/qualified/false/order/true
if you sort them by def runs saved and look at the top players, they almost always have more DPs than 0.5 x Games played. And you look at the bottom feeders here, e.g. Mercer, Kingery, Escobar and Rosario they are a bit below half.
if you look at 2019, de Jong, Trevor Story and Baez are all like 20 DPs above 0.5 x Games played. That much seems consistent.
On the other hand, the entry on BaseballRef seems to say that they do factor in DPs made although its all a black box sort of thing.
well yes, but I was thinking more about when he was with the Yankees, Gregorious's defense seemed to collapse in 2019. And his def rating in the subsequent years in PHI seem to track closely with that, losing about 1 run/10 games. BUt his DP rate is actually not bad, so maybe I misremembered his deal in particular.
I think we can assign about 0.55 runs/DP as there's an additional out and an additional baserunner (typically) on 1b when you dont make it. I also suspect they happen a bit more in higher leverage situations. perhaps .6 is closer to reality.
But the other things you mention make this a very difficult thing to factor, certainly. I do think there could likely be a spread of say 15 defensive runs from the best to worst middle infielders. I doubt if BIS/DRS is picking up all of that or much of that.
Looking at that issue, it would be hard to pin much of it on the 1b, since they really can't do much to affect the speed at which the parts are moving. Trying to weight 2b, SS and 3b say for example if you look at Mazeroski's numbers in the 60s that infield was definitely turning DPs at a very high rate consistently not just that year they set the record. If you start in 1958 Maz is about 30 DPs above 0.5 x GP, and then 40-50 every season, except '66 when they set the record at 162 he's about 80 more than 0.5 x GP.
But at SS he had Dick Grote initially who was almost certainly very good, Schofield who was maybe better than average and then peak Gene Alley who won two gold gloves in '66 and '67 before he messed up his arm, so I guess he was VG too. So even if you assign half to those guys there's still alot of DPs to assign Maz.
I dont think it makes Maz better than Joe Morgan or even Chase Utley for that matter. But there's probably a handful or runs they are undercounting him each year. But at least for elite defenders there is a certain consistency in turning DPs.
It makes perfect sense that SSs (defenders) who turn more GBs into outs (via range, arm, etc.) when there is no force or there are already two outs would also turn more DPs for the exact same reasons. But that's more an issue of: a DP play made is more valuable than a regular GB play made, let's make sure we count them right.
The question I thought we were asking is "do DPs require some skill not already captured by generic defensive measures?" If so then we might expect not just that Javy Baez (obviously the best at everything!) turns more DPs than Didi but that he would turn more DPs than otherwise excellent SSs who are lacking those DP skills for some reason. Or similarly maybe there are 2B who have limited range but are excellent at turning DPs (and not just because they have a strong arm) -- wasn't that supposedly a Jeff Kent thing? Or somebody else? This would be a repeatable skill.
Likewise 3b since that is an entirely different throw. More about quickness then strength.
Gregorious too, at least in 2018 seems to be good at DPs despite his defense cratering per the link I posted. Which doesnt mention if its using DRS or what.
This is fun. I'm trying - and failing - to come up with other players in the modern era who did not come up with an org but generated most of their career value there. Bonus if he's a Yankee.
The Blue Jays got 38.3 bbref WAR from Jose Bautista. Everyone else on either side of his career combined for -1.6.
Eh, not quite. Edmonds had 20 WAR with the Angels (and 2 in the twilight of his career) but 38 with the Cards. That's too much to really qualify here. I didn't realize he'd been quite that good with the Angels.
Adam Jones came up with the Mariners - he had 32.5 WAR with the Orioles, and 0.1 with the M's and Diamondbacks.
Most DP end at 1B. If the 1B is a subpar defender, either for getting to the bag to receive throws or simply dropping/not getting throws which could be DP, they can impact DP rate. Hoskins in 2019 was still brutal at getting to the bag in the correct spots (my dad semi-defeatistly joked "he plays LF like a 1B and 1B like a LF." I just said "he plays both like a DH."). He's seemingly gotten better at that since by the eye test. But, he's still pretty brutal on botching catches.....this is how you have a .990 fielding percentage at 1B (which is bottom quintile among full-time 1B).
I'd have to think Hoskins does negatively impact DP rate due to a combination of errors and "going off the bag" to get stuff other 1B wouldn't have to. I mean, he's better than Franchy Cordero at 1B, but that isn't high praise.
Miguel Cabrera probably isn't the type of player you're looking for, but he had 18.3 WAR with the Marlins and 50 so far with the Tigers. Barry Bonds had a similar ratio with his two teams, with more than 2x Cabrera's WAR.
Josh Hamilton's a special case, but he got almost all of his career WAR from his third organization, which he joined in his age-27 season. Cecil Fielder got 16.9 of his 17.2 career WAR with the Tigers, after four partial seasons in Toronto and a year in Japan.
Looking at a guy more comparable to Didi Gregorius, Hubie Brooks had 8.9 WAR in 5 years with Montreal (his second team), vs. 4.1 WAR in 10 years everywhere else.
Paul O'Neill had 12.3 WAR with the Reds, then 26.7 WAR with the Yankees (so he gets the bonus). Another Yankee, Scott Brosius, had 8.3 WAR and 3 World Series titles in 4 years with the Yankees after getting 7.4 WAR and no World Series titles in 7 years with the A's.
I imagine it happens more frequently with pitchers, as they're more likely to "figure things out" later in their careers and might also be more likely to be traded while still young. Just looking at the all-time greats, Randy Johnson got slightly more than 50% of his career WAR with the Diamondbacks (his fourth team), Greg Maddux got about 2/3 of his career WAR from his second team, and Pedro Martinez got about 60% of his career WAR from his third team. Max Scherzer has generated more than 50% of his current career WAR with Washington (his third team), but that could change by the time he retires. He has 38.9 pitching WAR with Washington vs. about 30 from his other teams combined.
1) Time to ball: Average time to reach ball when it enters fielders zone. Trying to measure how quickly fielder gets to ball and who takes best angles.
2) Release time: Average time from fielding ball to throwing it.
3) Throw accuracy: Average distance from defenders glove that throw arrives at.
Many issues with those measures. #1 affected by batted ball , #3 is trying to measure how catchable they ball is but depends on receivers positioning and doesn’t measure how easy it makes their throw.
Or a more qualitative approach could be used to create one. Have some skilled observers watch thousands of shortstop initiations of double plays on video, ranking them on a 5 point scale, then run results through machine language algorithm to generate an automated measurement tool. To reduce bias the video could be reduced to rough gray scale (or even black/white templates of ball and player) so observers can’t know who the player is. And it should include timing measures (such as release time) to make scoring more consistent. Both might also make the machine learning algorithm more accurate.
I would expect both approaches to already exist except for the one major problem with DP efficiency. No one cares. I can’t see any team paying for all the work necessary to implement them just to get a somewhat better measure than scouting, for a skill that’s not a huge component of a shortstops value. Fielding range has to be much more important for example.
Justin Turner had less rWAR in his first five seasons in Baltimore (where I didn't even know he'd played) and Queens than in his first season in Los Angeles. He's had 30 total with the Dodgers, less than 1 elsewhere.
David Ortiz, obvs.
Brian Giles was good in Cleveland (7.6 WAR in part-time play over about three seasons), but couldn't find a permanent home in their crowded outfield back then. In five seasons in Pittsburgh, he put up 27.2. Then, to top it off, he put up another 21.6 in his first six seasons with the Padres. (His last year in SD, the last of his career, was a total disaster, well below replacement in just a third of a season.)
Carl Pavano?
Roger Maris. 6 years with CLE, KCA, and STL, 9 WAR, 7 years with the Yankees, 25 WAR.
I’d say Jolly was right on about his value statement on Didi.
If Didi has been smart enough to keep 1/3 or 1/4 of the $71M he made in his career, the remaining 50 or so years of his life should be very comfortable.
33.7 bWar in Chi (10 seasons); 66.2 in ATL.
Nine seasons beginning in Atlanta and concluding with Tampa, Washington, Houston, San Diego - 1.6 WAR.
charlie mortin before he was a phillies:
875 IP
4.54 ERA
84 ERA+
-1 WAR
charlie mortin after he was a phillies:
850 IP
3.45 ERA
123 ERA+
16 WAR
Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 889 IP, 17.9 WAR
and then 362 IP with the Padres and Phillies, 3.1 WAR
-1.1 WAR in Queens, 44.8 WAR in KC.
and with Yankees, 15 yrs, 231-124, 46.5 WAR
in the 1930 trade, the Red Sox got the last 65 OPS+ of the OF's mediocre playing career - and 50 grand, which was a decent amount of money back then.
the Red Sox owner was nearly broke (another one!), and also got a 50 grand loan to stay solvent.
Nettles: 1 rWAR in Minnesota, then 67 rWAR
Ryan: 3 rWAR for the Mets, 80.6 afterward
A more extreme version of Tony Womack is Neifi Perez, who had 4.0 WAR in his fourth big league stop and -1.4 everywhere else. Just the way Cubs fans remember it.
That trade doesn't get the credit it deserves for the disaster that it was (much like Willie's career doesn't get the credit it deserves). Willie, Ken Brett and Dock Ellis for a single season of Doc Medich.
The Pirates then turned around and peddled Medich with Tony Armas, Rick Lankford, Mitchell Page, Doug Bair and Dave Giusti for Phil Garner and a few other inconsequential pieces. Scrap Iron gave them some good MI production, but that's an awful lot of talent shipped away in two moves for a perennial contender.
…I may be doing this incorrectly.
Babe Ruth, BOS 19.2 WAR
Babe Ruth, NYA 143.4 WAR
Tony Womack + Doritos + Mountain Dew = Neifi Perez
EDIT:
Are Slim Jims more extreme than Doritos? Then swap them in.
Looks like he's gonna become an itinerant veteran of not much note, but unexpectedly explodes. And the recipient team cuts him loose at exactly the right time.
Agree. Has anyone had a more wild 8 months than him? Between Dec 15, 2003 and July 30, 2004:
December 15, 2003: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 rule 5 draft.
June 3, 2004: Selected off waivers by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays from the Baltimore Orioles.
June 28, 2004: Purchased by the Kansas City Royals from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
July 30, 2004: Traded by the Kansas City Royals to the New York Mets for Justin Huber.
July 30, 2004: Traded by the New York Mets with Matt Peterson (minors) and Ty Wigginton to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.
He played for 4 different teams, and was very briefly a Met.
well I guess so because "after now" is nothing.
One of my favorite players ever, which I guess makes him my favorite former (for however brief a span) Met. Though Kevin McReynolds' Little Rock origins put him on the short list as well.
Also R.A. Dickey, given my love of knuckleballers. The Cy Young year while on my fantasy team didn't hurt, either.
One of the all-time great BBTF (& probably elsewhere) nicknames -- Vinny Cash-Stealer.
He got 14.8 of his 20.9 career WAR in Seattle. Now, it's true that he was drafted by and came up with Seattle, so he doesn't really qualify. However, he had -0.8 WAR in his first stint with Seattle (5 years), before going to Kansas City as a free agent. He then returned to Seattle after three years.
In his second stint with the Mariners (i.e., after changing organizations twice) he had 14.8 WAR. He had another 0.7 WAR in his third stint with the Mariners.
So he had all of his career WAR in those five middle seasons. The rest of his career -- 14 years, some of it also with the Mariners -- totaled up to 0 WAR.
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