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Sunday, January 08, 2012
With the new deal, which is believed to be worth $33.5 million, the Angels will avoid Kendrick’s final year of arbitration and buy out his first three years of free agency.
I know Kendrick loses some value with his low walk rate, but a 125 OPS+ for a middle infielder sure seems like it should cost more than $8.5 million per year. Seems like a team friendly deal for his age 28-31 seasons - getting out from under him before the weird 2nd baseman/age 32 curse strikes.
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1. Matt Welch Posted: January 08, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4031565)He was already (at least) a perfectly serviceable offensive 2B before his glove developed. Anything beyond that with his bat is gravy, and he still retains the potential for upside that we've been hearing about for years.
While avoiding the dreaded age 32 season, they have gotten him wrapped up for the often magical age 28-31 2B seasons:
OPS+ through 27; 28-31
Carew 122; 159*
Morgan 121; 158
Sandberg 108; 130**
Biggio 113; 135
Zobrist 69; 126 :-)
Of course I'm half-joking. This is mostly just guys hitting their peak. And Alomar was better young; Kent didn't peak until 30; and Whitaker was better younger and older. Just something I noticed one day poking around in Carew, Morgan, Sandberg, etc. That and that Carew was right there with Morgan in terms of those big years but it's Morgan we remember as TEH GOD!! (Carew did switch to 1B at 30 which is part of it but it's mostly Big Red Machine carry over).
Of the HoFers, Kendrick is most like Sandberg through 27:
HK: 292/329/434, 105
RS: 288/342/432, 108
Before you get too excited, it's more different than it looks. Sandberg's numbers are pulled down by below-average full seasons at 22 and 23 when Kendrick was just a part-timer. From 24-27, Kendrick has a 107 OPS+ while Sandberg was 120. Sandberg had a 170 ISO, not 140, in that stretch. Also steals through 27 were 210-61 in Sandberg's favor (somewhat due to greater playing time) and some GG and an MVP.
ZiPS is not very excited, projecting Kendrick to remain Kendrick but Sandberg does show up as comp #2.
* Carew may have broken out at 27 (144); Morgan kept it going at 32
** Sandberg's best was actually 29-32 (140)
He was already (at least) a perfectly serviceable offensive 2B before his glove developed. Anything beyond that with his bat is gravy, and he still retains the potential for upside that we've been hearing about for years.
I wouldn't get too excited about that crazy UZR. B-Ref has his at +6, which is very consistent with every season except 2010. Kendrick looks like an above avg. 2B, but that +17 UZR looks like a fluke.
Really? 329/396/439 vs. the Yanks. That's good but hardly deadly. Just 2 HR in 184 PA. Or is he truly vorpal in that most of the time it's just a regular sword but every once in a while it chops your head clean off?
Ahhh ... I see his 2011 splits were horrific -- 138/167/241 but one of his HR -- so I guess prior to 2011 he must have hit about 400.
Also there was that highly entertaining playoff series a few years back when the Angels just kept hitting groundball after groundball and nobody on the Yanks IF could get to them. Knee-slapping good fun. That was before Kendrick's time though I think.
That's awesome, Walt. I'm all sorts of using that.
And the fact that peak Morgan was an incredibly efficient, high-volume basestealer (250/54 in the years in question, while Carew stole over 100 fewer bases and was caught more times), and the fact that the 28-31 span includes Carew's best year (1977) while leaving off Morgan's 186 OPS+ at age 32.
Miguel Cabrera puts them all to shame.
He's averaged 2.6 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR over the last 5 years. It seems extremely likely that last year was some sort of career year, but it's still part of what he has accomplished in his career, so the most likely outcome is that he produces somewhere between 2.5 and 3 wins a year over the next 4.
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