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Thursday, September 30, 2021

Dodgers Albert Pujols Hits the COVID-19 Injured List

As it turns out, Pujols, the future Hall of Famer, was feeling the effects of his second shot of the COVID-19 vaccination. This injury was for the greater good. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts had the update.

“It’s a covid IL. He got his second shot and he just didn’t feel good after getting it. As far as playing in a Major League game. So just to kind of give him a day to see where he’s at tomorrow, it was an easy move to activate Cody [Bellinger].”

This is normal for most COVID-19 vaccinations, thankfully. Some people feel worse after the first shot, some after the second. The probability is that Pujols should be back giving his teammates hugs by Wednesday or Thursday.


I intend for this to be the new COVID thread.

Lassus Posted: September 30, 2021 at 06:24 PM | 223 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: albert pujols

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   1. SoSH U at work Posted: October 01, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6042859)
I'm OK if we go with this one as it has one fewer image of Hunter Renfroe to scroll past than the one I grabbed off a quick search.
   2. smileyy Posted: October 01, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6042863)
+1
   3. Tony S Posted: October 01, 2021 at 05:58 PM (#6042889)
California to mandate vaccines for schoolchildren.

California will enact the nation’s first coronavirus vaccine mandate for schoolchildren, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday, aiming to have all students in seventh through 12th grades vaccinated by next fall once the shots gain final federal approval for everyone 12 and over.


*Next* fall is still a year away, so it will be awhile before full impact, but California is doing much better than other large states (and plenty of small ones as well) in terms of per-capita deaths from Covid, so it's good to see the anti-pandemic aggressiveness continue.

I'm sure we'll hear from the usual crowd how this is so totally different from polio and MMR vaccine mandates for students.
   4. bfan Posted: October 01, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6042891)
Pujols reported his as COVID-16
   5. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 01, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6042892)
He’s just now getting his second shot?
   6. smileyy Posted: October 01, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6042897)
I lol'ed at 4.
   7. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 01, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6042904)
Better late than never, Albert.
   8. Tony S Posted: October 01, 2021 at 07:47 PM (#6042908)
Here's another data point regarding vaccination and transmission potential.

People who are vaccinated against Covid-19 are less likely to spread the virus even if they become infected, a new study finds, adding to a growing body of evidence that vaccines can reduce transmission of the delta variant.


Both vaccines reduced transmission, although they were more effective against the alpha variant compared to the delta variant. When infected with the delta variant, a given contact was 65 percent less likely to test positive if the person from whom the exposure occurred was fully vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. With AstraZeneca, a given contact was 36 percent less likely to test positive if the person from whom the exposure occurred was fully vaccinated.


As always, the usual caveats apply (peer review is still pending).
   9. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 01, 2021 at 08:59 PM (#6042916)
Florida new deaths reports are finally down this week, and now by a lot. 250 per day reported rather than the 350 of the last two weeks. Cases continue to fall way down, so deaths should continue to fall a lot the next 3-4 weeks.
   10. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: October 01, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6042920)
*Next* fall is still a year away, so it will be awhile before full impact, but California is doing much better than other large states (and plenty of small ones as well) in terms of per-capita deaths from Covid, so it's good to see the anti-pandemic aggressiveness continue.

California's middle of the pack after adjusting for age of population.
   11. bunyon Posted: October 01, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6042921)
2nd shot my ass. This was his booster.
   12. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 01, 2021 at 10:03 PM (#6042927)
Those numbers in 10 are for reported deaths, and deaths are very unevenly reported by state. Reposted from the last thread as of 2 weeks ago:

Excess deaths per million as estimated through September 18.
1st column: age-adjusted (to the US over-65 percentage)
2nd column: raw estimate based on CDC data and recent case totals
3rd column: percent above expected deaths for 18-month period starting 3/15/2020
Mississippi     4725    4400       27.25

Texas           4200    3125       29.00
Louisiana       4025    3675       24.50

Alabama         3725    3725       22.00
Arkansas        3650    3650       23.25
Georgia         3500    2875       23.25

Oklahoma        3375    3125       21.00
Arizona         3350    3475       26.75
Nevada          3350    3125       24.25
Tennessee       3350    3250       19.25
New York        3325    3250       28.00

South Dakota    3250    3200       23.75
D.C.            3250    2375       17.50
New Jersey      3175    3075       24.25
North Dakota    3125    2825       20.50
South Carolina  3060    3200       21.25

Indiana         2950    2750       18.75
New Mexico      2900    2975       21.50
Missourri       2900    2900       18.00
Rhode Island    2875    2925       20.75
Kentucky        2875    2800       17.00

California      2825    2400       23.50
Illinois        2775    2550       20.50
Michigan        2725    2750       18.75
Florida         2700    3300       22.25
Connecticut     2700    2750       20.75

Pennsylvania    2525    2725       17.50
Iowa            2500    2525       18.25
Kansas          2500    2325       17.00
Ohio            2500    2525       15.75

Montana         2475    2725       19.00
West Virginia   2450    2875       15.00
Delaware        2425    2700       18.00
Maryland        2400    2175       17.25
North Carolina  2375    2300       16.50

Wyoming         2350    2225       18.00
Colorado        2325    1950       18.50
Virginia        2300    2075       16.75
Idaho           2250    2100       17.25
Massachusetts   2225    2175       17.50

Utah            1975    1300       13.75
Nebraska        1950    1825       13.75

Minnesota       1725    1600       13.50
Wisconsin       1700    1700       12.25

Washington      1375    1250       10.75
New Hampshire   1325    1400       10.25
Alaska          1300     900        7.50
Oregon          1175    1225        8.75

Maine            825    1000        6.00
Vermont          725     825        5.50
Hawaii           600     650        5.25

United States   2575    2575       19.75

All numbers approximate, with some estimation involved.

California is still middle of the pack, more or less.
   13. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 02, 2021 at 02:22 AM (#6042951)
Florida averaged 246 deaths per day this past week. That is still a huge, terrible number, but it’s the first significant decline in several weeks, so that’s encouraging.

Cases continue to decline and are now around 25% of the peak level.

FL has now passed NY State in total reported COVID deaths.
   14. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 02, 2021 at 02:54 AM (#6042952)
So the Lone Star trails only the Magnolia State in age-adjusted deaths whether the measure be reported or excess. Gig 'em.
   15. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6043238)
Is this gonna be the new thread? I'm on board with it being the new thread.

   16. smileyy Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6043241)
Yes it is intended to be the new Covid thread
   17. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 03, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6043252)
Test.
   18. Greg Pope Posted: October 03, 2021 at 08:11 PM (#6043402)
I mean, it says exactly that right in the intro.
   19. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: October 03, 2021 at 08:20 PM (#6043404)
Here in Orange County NY, the numbers have been stubbornly around 100-110 new cases per day (7- and 14-day averages) for six weeks now, with no signs of any change.

I watch a lot college football. Every game has approximately a zillion fans in the stands, with exactly zero people wearing masks. (And they ain't exactly social distancing, neither.)

And with the vaccination numbers flat (I just got my third last week), I think you're gonna see a spike this winter. Again. And then they'll shut everything down. Again.

Sigh.
   20. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6043416)

If outdoor sports were super spreader events, I feel like we would have seen that after a season of baseball games with very few restrictions, at least after the first couple of months. It doesn’t seem like states with baseball teams fared worse than states without, but I wonder if someone has studied that question more rigorously. (Nobody goes to the games in Florida, so I don’t count them.)

Anyway, I’m not that worried about people at football games without masks. More worried about the indoor parties afterwards.
   21. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6043429)
Is it possible that Pujols has played his last game?
   22. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 03, 2021 at 10:30 PM (#6043437)
Very possible.

Back to the main theme: I got a ton of attention (pro and con) for posting on Facebook 12 months ago that, controlling for population density, % Republican vote share has a strong positive correlation with Covid death rates. Not much seems to have changed.
   23. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6043439)
Muncy is injured, so Pujols probably gets at least one more game.
   24. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: October 04, 2021 at 12:11 AM (#6043450)
Muncy is injured, so Pujols probably gets at least one more game.

After Albert left STL, I was hoping for a red on red, STL vs LAA World Series, and was bummed that it never happened. Still, pretty awesome that the wild card game is against St Louis. Shame it’s not in STL.

Heres hoping he hits 3HRs in an 11-9 Cardinals victory.
   25. Hank Gillette Posted: October 04, 2021 at 03:18 AM (#6043453)
Florida new deaths reports are finally down this week, and now by a lot. 250 per day reported rather than the 350 of the last two weeks.


That is still 1750 people who died, of which probably 90% were totally unnecessary.
   26. Hank Gillette Posted: October 04, 2021 at 03:42 AM (#6043454)
I'm sure we'll hear from the usual crowd how this is so totally different from polio and MMR vaccine mandates for students.


It is different. The largest number of polio cases in the U.S. was 57,628 in 1952. The largest number of polio cases in the U.S. was around 6,000 in 1916. Yet, the country was in a panic over polio (perhaps because it seemed to disproportionally target children?).

Can you imagine the anti-vaxxers if polio was the disease in question today?

“6,000 deaths? More people die every year from flesh-eating bactera!”
   27. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: October 04, 2021 at 06:28 AM (#6043458)
% Republican vote share has a strong positive correlation with Covid death rates


Well, we can only hope, can't we?

Fun fact: There are very few Republicans in NYC, the epicenter of the pandemic.
   28. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2021 at 07:14 AM (#6043459)
Trump got almost 3 times as many votes in NYC than he did in Mississippi. Mississippi has more age-adjusted excess deaths per capita now than NYC (and states have a huge advantage over cities due to differing densities anyway). Oh, and the only really important point, which every non-troll already knows, NYC got hit with the virus in the US first, before there were any political strategies to try to mitigate it.
   29. Tony S Posted: October 04, 2021 at 08:07 AM (#6043462)

The state of Alabama has been hit especially hard by Covid. They have the fourth-highest per capita death rate in the country, their vaccination rates are among the lowest, and their hospitals are overflowing, crowding out non-Covid patients in some cases. But fortunately, the big, bad, intrusive federal government stepped in and gave the state some funding to address its Covid issues.

So what are they doing with the money? Are they beefing up their overtaxed hospitals? Helping out their citizens as they accumulate crippling medical bills? Launching a major vaccination drive?

Well, actually, they're using some of it to build prisons. Priorities.

Hey, hey, my my... the pandemic will never die. Thanks in large part to southern men, and women.
   30. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2021 at 09:08 AM (#6043474)
WEEKLY PERCENTAGE POSITIVE results from lovely Oneida County, home of shitheel wackjob NY-21 Representative Claudia Tenney. I went to college with her queer sister, who doesn't talk to the family any more. Not entirely sure whose decision that was.

Anyhow, this is from our second-lowest percentage of the pandemic on June 22.

Our LOWEST was .2 on 9/1/2020, and we were under 1% from 8/18/2020 to 11/3/2020.

We hit a high of 10.4% on 1/6/2021.

6/22/21 - 0.3%
6/29/21 - 0.4%
7/6/21 - 0.4%
7/13/21 - 0.9%
7/20/21 - 1.0%
7/27/21 - 1.2%
8/3/21 - 3.2%
8/10/21 - 3.4%
8/17/21 - 3.0%
8/24/21 - 3.2%
8/31/21 - 3.6%
9/7/21 - 4.7%
9/14/21 - 4.2%
9/21/21 - 4.6%
9/28/21 - 4.0%

So, the next two weeks seem important, MAYBE it's a crest and retreat?
   31. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: October 04, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6043495)
I watch a lot college football. Every game has approximately a zillion fans in the stands, with exactly zero people wearing masks. (And they ain't exactly social distancing, neither.)

As someone who made the trip to Madison, WI, this weekend to watch a college football game, I can report back that there are more than zero fans wearing masks, but, yes, it's a small number.
   32. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 04, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6043496)
Can any of you tell me definitively when cases will stop going up in Michigan? I'll hang up and listen. Thanks.
   33. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: October 04, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6043517)
% Republican vote share has a strong positive correlation with Covid death rates

[citation needed]

And in any event, it's pretty rotten to cheer on the virus just because it's you think it's killing people with whom you disagree politically. (But par for the course for lefties.)
   34. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 04, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6043518)
Can any of you tell me definitively when cases will stop going up in Michigan? I'll hang up and listen. Thanks.
mid january.
   35. bunyon Posted: October 04, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6043519)
Jesus. No one is cheering it on. That correlation is documented in numerous articles and is pretty obvious. There are anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers on both sides but there are a lot more on the R side. And the southeast side. It's obvious and well established at this point. It's also a travesty.
   36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6043529)
You'd have to be willfully blind not to know about the correlation between red states and covid death rates since the vaccines became widely available. It's become especially pronounced with the delta wave.

Since Delta began circulating widely in the U.S., Covid has exacted a horrific death toll on red America: In counties where Donald Trump received at least 70 percent of the vote, the virus has killed about 47 out of every 100,000 people since the end of June, according to Charles Gaba, a health care analyst. In counties where Trump won less than 32 percent of the vote, the number is about 10 out of 100,000.
   37. smileyy Posted: October 04, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6043531)
There's a big difference between cheering, pointing out facts, and participating in Schadenfreude. Feel free to pillory me for the latter.

Most of those red-area deaths are preventable by red politicians.
   38. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2021 at 02:42 PM (#6043549)
I have little doubt RMc will come back to respond to the citation provided.
   39. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 04, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6043557)
Since mid-June, 30 percent of all COVID deaths have been logged in Texas and Florida.

Texas alone averaged 270 deaths/day through September.

If anyone's cheering them on, it's Abbott and DeSantis.
   40. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6043559)
I did look at the numbers for Michigan, which, ugh. My sister (unfortunately) lives there.
   41. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 04, 2021 at 06:31 PM (#6043589)
When I wrote about New York’s vaccine push last Wednesday, 92 percent of teachers and 89 percent of the entire Department of Education workforce had been inoculated—not bad, but not quite ideal. Since then, however, thousands more doses have gone into arms: Compliance is now up to 96 percent among teachers and 95 percent among all employees, the New York Times reports today.
...
it’s in keeping with the overall pattern we’re seeing at institutions across the country, where vaccine mandates simply seem to be working as intended, with relatively few workers choosing to drop their jobs in protest. In hospital system after hospital system, the vast majority of workers have gotten shots. At the meat processing company Tyson Foods, which announced a vaccine requirement back in August, 91 percent of its 120,000 workers have complied

   42. Tony S Posted: October 04, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6043590)
Hopefully those improving vaxx rates will significantly contain whatever winter waves await us.

Of course, anyone who is cheering on the pandemic will try his/her best to discourage people from getting vaccinated. Which I don't think applies to anyone here.
   43. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 04, 2021 at 06:57 PM (#6043593)
Hopefully those improving vaxx rates will significantly contain whatever winter waves await us.

does anyone else find it interesting that we stopped hearing certain people talk about "herd immunity" right around the time it might finally became relevant?
   44. Ron J Posted: October 04, 2021 at 08:04 PM (#6043604)
#43 That's because in their fantasy work you could get herd immunity at 25% of population infected.
   45. smileyy Posted: October 04, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6043614)
Imagined herd immunity at the low low price of 1.3M corpses.
   46. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 04, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6043619)
Yeah, but wait till they discover that herd immunity doesn't confer individual immunity. Pity the fool gotta explain that concept to them.
   47. Tony S Posted: October 04, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6043632)
This is the main reason we don't have this pandemic under control yet.

The Associated Press asked six doctors from across the country to describe the types of misinformation and denial they see on a daily basis and how they respond to it.
They describe being aggravated at the constant requests to be prescribed the veterinary parasite drug Ivermectin, with patients lashing out at doctors when they are told that it’s not a safe coronavirus treatment. People routinely cite falsehoods spread on social media, like an Illinois doctor who has people tell him that microchips are embedded in vaccines as part of a ploy to take over people’s DNA. A Louisiana doctor has resorted to showing patients a list of ingredients in Twinkies, reminding those who are skeptical about the makeup of vaccines that everyday products have lots of safe additives that no one really understands.


“I am like, ‘No, no, no, no, no.’ I shake my head, ‘No, no. That is not right, no, no. Stop, stop, just stop looking at Facebook.’”


For a few hours this afternoon that misinformation firehose was temporarily extinguished. But it's not just Facebook; as easy and deserving a target as it is, the rot runs much deeper. There are plenty of elements in the institutional media that are fanning all these falsehoods as well.
   48. Ron J Posted: October 05, 2021 at 08:24 AM (#6043644)
#45 But how many real people in that 1.3 M? In the easy herd immunity pitches there's at least an implied (and often explicit) notion that it'll pretty much exclude people in their prime.
   49. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: October 05, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6043680)
I looked at the headline and wanted to make some joke about how Pujols finally hit something, but he hasn't been completely terrible since joining the Dodgers. Not good, you know, right around replacement level. Still, he tacked on 12 more home runs than I expected in the middle of the summer.
   50. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: October 05, 2021 at 12:01 PM (#6043693)
California's middle of the pack after adjusting for age of population.


Even though California currently has the overall best numbers in the country, the Central Valley (with population about the size of Alabama plus Mississippi) has a Covid rate in line with those places. Hospitals overflowing, peopke dying, and Costco mega church ministers handing out religious exemptions for Covid vaccines in exchange for small cash donations.

3 guesses which party represents those counties in congress.

Central Valley

Ca deploys national guard to Central Valley hospitals
   51. Greg Pope Posted: October 05, 2021 at 12:50 PM (#6043708)
I think we can talk about COVID and regions of the country without specifically bringing political party into it.
   52. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6043710)
I think we can talk about COVID and regions of the country without specifically bringing political party into it.

sure, but only in the way that you can talk about advanced baseball statistics without specifically bringing sabermetrics into it.
   53. BDC Posted: October 05, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6043718)
Even though California currently has the overall best numbers in the country, the Central Valley (with population about the size of Alabama plus Mississippi) has a Covid rate in line with those places

Conversely, during this last wave, El Paso had a somewhat higher vaccination rate and a much lower hospitalization rate than Texas as a whole. These big states are very diverse places.
   54. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: October 05, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6043719)
sure, but only in the way that you can talk about advanced baseball statistics without specifically bringing baseball into it.
ftfy.

Any discussion of Covid statistics has to take into account the demographics of the region being studied. To ignore the fact that California has 6M people who live in a geographically contiguous, +20 Trump strip, and that those people are dying at a 3x higher rate than the rest of the state, is to willfully ignore the root cause of the problem.
   55. Greg Pope Posted: October 05, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6043724)
That's understandable, I just think we should keep politics out of it as much as we can. We know that as soon as you replace "rural population" with "Trump Republicans" that several posters will, well, do exactly what RMC did.

Anyway, I don't make policy here, it's just a suggestion to keep the thread from devolving. I won't say any more for now.
   56. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6043729)
That's understandable, I just think we should keep politics out of it as much as we can. We know that as soon as you replace "rural population" with "Trump Republicans" that several posters will, well, do exactly what RMC did.

Anyway, I don't make policy here, it's just a suggestion to keep the thread from devolving. I won't say any more for now.

something something censorship.
something something chilling effect.
something something being silenced.
something something first amendment.
something something free speech.
something something sheeple.
something something the very fine people win.
   57. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 02:31 PM (#6043731)
7 day moving averages for the united states, via worldometers.info:

new cases:
10.4.2020: 44,029
10.4.2021: 102,588

reported deaths:
10.4.2020: 703
10.4.2021: 1,540




these dates have not been inverted.
   58. bunyon Posted: October 05, 2021 at 02:35 PM (#6043732)
@57: Is that worldwide? Nation? I can't figure out what population you're looking at.
   59. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 02:40 PM (#6043733)
@57: Is that worldwide? Nation? I can't figure out what population you're looking at.
yeah, i'm playing around with the formatting a bit.
   60. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6043735)
Right about a year ago now is when the winter wave just started being noticeable for cases in 2020 in the US. Deaths, which lag, were at one of the lowest points in the whole pandemic. Since (as a nation) we are on the full downward case slope of the delta wave, we likely won't see cases increase at least for the next 3-4 weeks even if winter is already having an effect on increasing the spread, as it did last year.
   61. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6043738)
Right about a year ago now is when the winter wave just started being noticeable for cases in 2020 in the US. Deaths, which lag, were at one of the lowest points in the whole pandemic. Since (as a nation) we are on the full downward case slope of the delta wave, we likely won't see cases increase at least for the next 3-4 weeks even if winter is already having an effect on increasing the spread, as it did last year.

you may want to start tracking the rate of change on that slope, because i think we've just about hit the inflection point (the point where the rate of change of the slope crosses over from accelerating to decelerating).

if i'm right about the inflection point, then we could bottom out as soon as this week. and once we hit this bottom, cases are only going up until mid-january.


full disclosure:
i thought last year was going to be worse than it wound up being, so i might also just be a fatalist.
   62. bunyon Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6043741)
How Christmas looks depends a lot on when kids start getting shots and how many get them. That will most likely echo adult shots. So a big Christmas wave in the southeast, Texas and Florida and not much the rest of the country.

Or, perhaps, we really are getting close to running out of vulnerable people. Between vaccinations and infections, a lot of people have to have been exposed at this point.
   63. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6043745)
There was a walkout at a nearby hospital organized by an anti-vaxx freedom group. Only problem is no docs signed on and the people pretending to walk out couldn't actually walk out because they're not allowed in the hospital because visitors aren't allowed in.

Stupid, but the news still covers it as though it's real, so the idiots still win.
   64. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6043748)
Oh, my 12 year old got her 1st shot the day after her bday. All her friends have gotten theirs ASAP when they turned 12. You'd think a private Catholic school would have more problems with that given political leanings, but it's mainly the public schools here that can't get kids vaccinated.
   65. Tony S Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6043750)
if i'm right about the inflection point, then we could bottom out as soon as this week. and once we hit this bottom, cases are only going up until mid-january.


If we follow the UK's delta pattern, cases will decline sharply for a bit, and then plateau at an insidiously not-too-high, not-low-enough level.

Stupid, but the news still covers it as though it's real, so the idiots still win.


The media today gives anti-vaxxers a level of deference that it (rightfully) never did when it was a fringe hippie movement.

You'd think a private Catholic school would have more problems with that given political leanings


The Pope is vaccinated and the Vatican instituted a vaccine mandate for its employees, so there's no tree there to bark up for religious exemptions.
   66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6043751)
I don't know... each downslope in cases we've had so far seems a bit different from the others, so it's hard to come up with a meaningful general rule. Just eyeballing it though it seems there is at least a month or so after inflection point before cases start rising again. I would guess we have that long, but it's true almost anything could happen.

For example, the UK cases right now are not following a predictable pattern. There are good reasons why coming off the first peak cases didn't drop back to near 0, but apart from that when they go up and down, and at the current high levels, seems quite unpredictable.

I'd be surprised if cases start coming right back up in the US in the next week or two. I'd guess it's 50/50 as to whether they start going back up in early November. If they do go back up, my guess is the next wave will have a less-high peak than the one we just had, though it may last a bit longer.
   67. Greg Pope Posted: October 05, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6043752)
Did the UK have any mandates? The combination of coming approval for children under 12 and large companies having mandates may really help the US.
   68. Tony S Posted: October 05, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6043754)
I'd be surprised if cases start coming right back up in the US in the next week or two. I'd guess it's 50/50 as to whether they start going back up in early November. If they do go back up, my guess is the next wave will have a less-high peak than the one we just had, though it may last a bit longer.


The key to me is how quickly kids' vaccines get approved, and how quickly they get their actual shots after that. If we can start getting children inoculated by the end of October, which seems to be the goal, then hopefully there'll be enough penetration to significantly blunt any Thanksgiving waves.

   69. Biscuit_pants Posted: October 05, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6043769)
You'd think a private Catholic school would have more problems with that given political leanings


I thought as a group the Catholics leaned Democrat? I know things vary from school to school but I thought they were the one Christian group (at least amongst the large ones) that traditionally went to the Democrats.
   70. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6043778)
Resist Programming @RzstProgramming
On ESPN’s vaccine mandate, Sage Steele said mandates are “sick” and “scary,” but wasn’t “surprised it got to this point with Disney, a global company.”
https://twitter.com/RzstProgramming/status/1444639565369708544
yeesh.
   71. Ron J Posted: October 05, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6043779)
I am not sure how they vote as a group but there's certainly no shortage of vocal conservative Catholics.
   72. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: October 05, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6043786)
We know that as soon as you replace "rural population" with "Trump Republicans" that several posters will, well, do exactly what RMC did.


Get their posts blocked by anyone with half a brain?
   73. Lassus Posted: October 05, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6043795)
I was going to go with "hide when confronted with data he himself requested".
   74. Lassus Posted: October 05, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6043797)
Also, aren't y'all just some Negative Nancys regarding this winter.

Just look at this headline!

'The last major wave of infection': Do falling COVID cases signal the end of the U.S. pandemic?
Consider the data. Exactly three weeks ago, America’s summer wave — fueled by stalling vaccination rates and the hypercontagious Delta variant — peaked at an average of nearly 176,000 cases per day. That average daily case count has since plummeted 41 percent, to roughly 104,000. The number of COVID patients in hospitals, a lagging indicator, has been shrinking for the last month; it’s down 25 percent since Sept. 4. And COVID deaths, which lag even further, are now decreasing as well.

Overall, fewer and fewer COVID tests nationwide have been coming back positive: less than 6.5 percent currently, compared with more than 10 percent in late August.

For weeks, the cautious response to these improvements has been to remind people of what happened last year. That summer, the virus surged and subsided as well — before it came roaring back in October. Three excruciating months later, it peaked at a horrific 250,000 cases and 3,300 deaths a day.

What could go wrong?

(To be fair, the article also admits this could quite easily be wrong.)
   75. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 05, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6043802)
I have not visit the Covid thread in awhile so perhaps its already been asked: do we have any good idea on what the breakthrough infection rate is currently?

By way of anecdote my daughter is at a small college in eastern US. They have about 2000 students and 98% vaccination rate (some medical and religious exceptions) about 10 or so cases, I believe they are all of vaccinated kids.
   76. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 07:52 PM (#6043805)
'The last major wave of infection': Do falling COVID cases signal the end of the U.S. pandemic?
i forget, but isn't there an axiom about headlines that ask questions?
   77. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 05, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6043806)
I thought as a group the Catholics leaned Democrat? I know things vary from school to school but I thought they were the one Christian group (at least amongst the large ones) that traditionally went to the Democrats.

Well, the one white Christian group...pretty much every black and Latino Christian group still votes heavily Democrat.

That being said, I think the Democratic edge among white Catholics isn’t quite as strong as it used to be.
   78. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 05, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6043810)
none of the old traditional demographic groups seem to hold the way they did in the late 20th century. Blacks, unions, Jewish groups used to be strongly democratic. Of course, women of color came out strongly for Biden in the last election but I presume that was a one time thing.

Perhaps college educated still have a democratic lean.
   79. BDC Posted: October 05, 2021 at 08:22 PM (#6043818)
none of the old traditional demographic groups seem to hold the way they did in the late 20th century. Blacks, unions, Jewish groups used to be strongly democratic. Of course, women of color came out strongly for Biden in the last election but I presume that was a one time thing

I don't think there's been much change in African-American Presidential voting since 1964. Much was made of Trump improving from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020, but 12% of a demographic is still terrible.

Biden's 76% of Jewish voters is monotonously in line with historical averages, though there has been some fluctuation over the decades – the percentage of (R) Jewish Presidential voters being higher in the Reagan years, for instance. Orthodox communities are growing and tend to vote (R), but that doesn't seem to have changed the overall pattern much.
   80. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 05, 2021 at 08:30 PM (#6043822)

Perhaps college educated still have a democratic lean


Catholics have been trending right as the unions weakened. Ethnic (Catholic) whites were the Reagan Democrat constituency, but some of the underlying cause is racial, I would think. Not coincidentally, a lot of that constituency moved out of the cities in the second-half of the C20. Some of it is also cultural conservatism.

Nearly six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, marking a big shift since 2008, when four-in-ten (41%) supported the GOP. (Point 3 here)
   81. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 05, 2021 at 09:04 PM (#6043825)
Presumably some of that is white liberals leaving the Catholic Church demographically, too?

EDIT: This link, although a few years old, would seem to support that notion. Catholics have suffered the biggest losses in recent years, and “unaffiliated” have made the biggest gains.
   82. Tony S Posted: October 05, 2021 at 09:25 PM (#6043836)

A similar analysis to the one Lassus liked above: The Covid two-month cycle.

These declines are consistent with a pattern that readers will recognize: COVID’s mysterious two-month cycle. Since the COVID virus began spreading in late 2019, cases have often surged for about two months — sometimes because of a variant, such as delta — and then declined for about two months.

Public health researchers do not understand why. Many popular explanations — such as seasonality or the ebbs and flows of mask wearing and social distancing — are clearly insufficient, if not wrong. The two-month cycle has occurred during different seasons of the year and occurred even when human behavior was not changing in obvious ways.


   83. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 05, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6043844)
These declines are consistent with a pattern that readers will recognize: COVID’s mysterious two-month cycle. Since the COVID virus began spreading in late 2019, cases have often surged for about two months — sometimes because of a variant, such as delta — and then declined for about two months.

relevant.


last year's winter "surge" in the US started in october and continued through mid-january.
the UK's delta "surge" started in june and is still going today.



the interesting thing isn't the peaks, it's the valleys. as far as i can tell, the valleys are reasonably explained by A: summer, and B: heightened levels of social distancing due to winter/various massive spikes necessitating shutting things down. if you use georgia as an example, they had a trough between march and july, which last i checked, is longer than 2 months.
   84. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 05, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6043851)
81 -- Yep. And what used to be called the mainline Protestant denominations also lost parishioners.
   85. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6043877)
Two-month cycle doesn't seem to apply that well to the US, and even less well if you look at other countries.
   86. base ball chick Posted: October 05, 2021 at 11:39 PM (#6043906)
we got no idea how long immunity lasts or whether the immunity gotten from infection with original covid as the same immunity gotten with delta. best i understand neither one is as long lasting as immunity from da VAXX
most of the world is not vaccinated. so the virus gonna keep on mutating olike it has been doing. and i disbelieved back in may/june that covid was OVAH and i disbelieve now that covid is OVAH.

i do not find good info about how to find out if you are still immune to covid even if you got vaccinated so me and Husband are getting a pfizer booster when we hit 6 months out from vaccine.

i think pretty much all churches are losing members. the few rightys i actually KNOW who always goin on about Gawid n Kountree don't actually GO to church

i seriously disbelieve that Black women are suddenly gonna start voting for repubs in any kind of large numbers. most of us got sense
   87. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 06, 2021 at 12:46 AM (#6043915)
And then there are the people like my friend with what appears to be long covid. 2 Pfizer doses, then covid months after the second, and still low antibody units when tested.


i think pretty much all churches are losing members. the few rightys i actually KNOW who always goin on about Gawid n Kountree don't actually GO to church

Seems to be a move to home-churching in the Houston suburbs, at least when I lived in Clear Lake for a couple years. Had one across the street. (Who knew!?)
   88. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 06, 2021 at 05:12 AM (#6043921)
Did the UK have any mandates? The combination of coming approval for children under 12 and large companies having mandates may really help the US.


Limited. There was talk of requiring proof of vaccination for nightclubs and similar for September, but the government backed off it after there were chunterings from within their own party. I believe the only mandates in place are for healthcare and care home workers. I don't believe any other employers have - or can? - mandate them.

I'm back in the UK for the first time in 18 months. Mask-wearing seems almost entirely random - it's a stated requirement on London public transport, but adherence is only about 60%, and there's no enforcement. That's an awful lot lower than in Germany (I would estimate 95%+ on public transport) and my journey through the Netherlands to get to the Hook of Holland ferry (maybe 80%), even though the UK has reached that uncomfortable 100+ deaths/day plateau and been on it for months now.

I'm at a medium-sized conference for industry, the first one the venue has held since Covid began. The organisers require a negative test or proof of vaccination, but the event is almost entirely unmasked and involves alcohol (I did say it was in the UK, after all), so I'm isolating when I get home and getting a test after a few days.

Most importantly, I got to see my parents and my grandmother in person for the first time in nearly two years. I do love a good vaccine.
   89. Lassus Posted: October 06, 2021 at 08:16 AM (#6043926)
I don't believe any other employers have - or can? - mandate them.

Slightly confused by this, various companies have instituted vaccine mandates.

EDIT: Oh wait, you meant the UK, sorry.
   90. Tony S Posted: October 06, 2021 at 09:02 AM (#6043935)
The University of Colorado hospital system is not messing around.

DENVER — UCHealth confirmed Tuesday that organ transplant recipients and living donors must be vaccinated against COVID-19 "in almost all situations."

In a statement, the hospital system said studies indicate the mortality rate for transplant recipients who test positive for COVID ranges from 18% to 32%, compared to a 1.6% mortality rate among all people who have tested positive.



It will be interesting if others also begin cracking down on wasting scarce resources on the free riders.
   91. bunyon Posted: October 06, 2021 at 09:29 AM (#6043942)
There is no way a rational person can be anti-vax and pro-transplant. #### 'em.
   92. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 06, 2021 at 09:31 AM (#6043943)
EDIT: Oh wait, you meant the UK, sorry.


Yeah, I rambled on a bit there. The UK's trajectory is interesting: one of the first countries to get major vaccination take-up, very little partisan divide to the willingness of the population to get jabbed, and strong incentives to curtail a previously very high Covid casualty rate.

And yet . . . the rate of dispensing vaccines has slowed a lot. To the extent that the EU, which was previously the object of derision in the UK for a slower vaccination rollout, is now almost caught up. France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Denmark,Belgium, and the Netherlands all now have a higher proportion of their citizenry with at least one jab. The rate of deaths and hospitalisations in the UK stubbornly remains not close to zero, and well above a lot of their most similar neighbours.

Sitting in London now, it does feel like the UK has pretty much decided that the pandemic is over, and is now getting excited about supermarket shortages and fuel supply lines as winter approaches.
   93. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 06, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6043953)
Daily reported deaths worldwide are currently at their lowest point since last October, almost a year ago.
   94. Snowboy Posted: October 06, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6044004)
Twitter: FilmThePoliceLA

Hollywood Blvd, Saturday, 11:22 AM:

ANTI-VAXX PROTESTER: Do you see all of these homeless people around. Are they dead in the street with COVID? Hell no. Why?

HOMELESS PERSON (walking by): Because I’m vaccinated you dumb ####.
   95. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: October 06, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#6044056)
Since mid-June, 30 percent of all COVID deaths have been logged in Texas and Florida.

and here's a visual representation of the geography of those deaths.
   96. Tony S Posted: October 06, 2021 at 05:53 PM (#6044061)
Plague rats in action.

Two anti-vaxx demonstrators attacked a Covid-19 testing site on Monday, during a protest against New York state’s vaccine mandate.

A video caught the men in Union Square flipping over a table next to a mobile coronavirus testing van, tearing down the tent erected next to it and tossing a chair, before police intervened to stop them permanently destroying any property.

   97. Tony S Posted: October 06, 2021 at 06:02 PM (#6044063)
And in my home state...

Court documents reveal that a Maryland man who is charged in three late-September murders believed that his pharmacist brother, one of his alleged victims, was "killing people with the COVID shot."

Police say 46-year-old Jeffrey Allen Burnham, 46, shot and killed his brother, 58-year-old Brian Robinette, and his sister-in-law, 57-year-old Kelly Sue Robinette, in Ellicott City on September 30. They also believe he killed a friend of his mother's, Rebecca Reynolds, the prior day in his hometown of Cumberland.


I'm sure this is a very rare and isolated instance of an antivaxxer resorting to violence, and this kind of thing will never happen again.
   98. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 06, 2021 at 07:12 PM (#6044066)
97 -- & he looks like such a reasonable man

Meanwhile in Idaho,

As acting governor, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin (R) issued an executive order Tuesday afternoon banning state officials from requiring covid-19 “vaccine passports” from new or current employees. Little quickly promised to undo McGeachin’s order as soon as he returned from touring the U.S.-Mexico border with a group of fellow Republican governors.


   99. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 06, 2021 at 10:06 PM (#6044161)
Idaho is full of crazy people.
   100. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 06, 2021 at 10:37 PM (#6044189)
Idaho is full of crazy people.

Don't forget the racist people with guns!
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