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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, December 23, 2011Drayer: Why you do not trade Felix Hernandez right nowBut deal Michael Pineda instead. (calls Schick Shadel Hospital…confirms bed for evening)
Repoz
Posted: December 23, 2011 at 10:31 AM | 7 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: December 23, 2011 at 11:32 PM (#4022840)1. If you're going to trade a pitcher, trade Pindeda not Hernandez because Hernandez is a much better pitcher than Pineda.
2. Discuss point (1) with no reference to likely return in terms of players or that Felix is owed $58 M over the next 3 years.
3. Which isn't to say don't trade Felix, just make sure you realize he's one of the best pitchers in baseball before you do -- in case that hadn't occurred to you before you had the idea that you might trade Felix.
It took Felix almost four years to turn into what we see today.
What's our definition of "today"? Over the last 3 years, Felix has indeed been quite the stud. But in 2011, he put up just a 111 ERA+. The peripherals were all pretty much the same so I'm not suggesting that's a new Felix.
While I'm on the topic of Felix, anybody recall the classic Rich Lederer (I think it was) vs. Dave Cameron Weaver vs. Felix debate? For 2009-11, they both have 16.7 WAR (Chone).
He's expensive, so nobody is going to give them the kind of package they'd need to sell it to the fans (multiple young, cheap major leaguers, plus a couple good prospects).
The revenue hit from any other kind of trade would likely be huge, and they're a big market team that shouldn't blanch at paying Felix.
It's not like they have any other long term commitments.
assuming the return for hernandez would reflect his peak value, i think the smarter play might be to move felix for some high upside bats, tank for a year or 3 and use the resulting picks to bring in more high upside bats, and then hope that by the time pineida, hultzen, paxton, and walker are in their primes, the team will have actually developed a competent offense.
Now I know that trading him, even at his current contract, should net some high upside prospects. But what are the odds of them doing anything close to the value King Felix puts up? Honestly, run that guy out there every day possible for the next 3 years. And if he is still as good as he should be, you resign him. He's so awesome, has such an awesome nickname, and has been a Mariner from such a young age that seeing him in any other uniform would be blasphemous.*
* To me at least. I hoped Pujols would stay in StL, for instance.
Except it's bullshit. Everything that's come out of Seattle says that he loves the team, loves the stadium, loves the city. He and his family actually live in Seattle during the season. Every Rosenthal or Bowden trying to manufactre a "he obviously hates it in Seattle, trade him to the Yankees where he'll be happy" is just that, manufacturing a story out of whole cloth.
I mean, they've got to start winning eventually, right?
What the Mariners should do is keep Felix and Pineda to form a great top of the rotation and leverage their high revenue potential to build a good team around them instead of dicking around trading their good players in the hope that a better future will come when they have a perfectly good base to build from already. Yeah, they have some big holes and the offense has blown but part of that has been Zduriencik's actual results so far being significantly different than the hype he has received. Yes, the team was in bad shape and he has to be judged on process to a fairly large degree but so far the process isn't exactly spectacular. Ichiro!'s contract is up after next season so the only payroll committed to Hernandez or players not pulling their weight is $27.5 million, there's a lot of room to make a couple good free agent signings, some smart pickups of relievers or complimentary players, and maybe make a couple good trades. There is no reason for them to act like a low payroll team trying to open a window of a few years of having a bunch of good farm products be productive at once, if Zduriencik doesn't believe that he can put together a team capable of making a run at the AL West title by 2014 then he should just resign now and let someone better take a shot. Besides, it's not like they have to make a decision about going for it with Hernandez or trading him while he can still bring back a great return, they easily have the resources to keep him past his current contract.
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