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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Dylan Carlson has flourished at every level despite his youth, so why would the Cards be cautious with him now? – The Athletic

In assessing Carlson’s prospect pedigree and the excitement that goes with it, Mozeliak has compared Carlson, 21, to none other than Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras.

Please understand the context; Mozeliak’s reference was all about a prospect’s potential to emerge as a generational hitter. Those talents just don’t surface very often, and Carlson rates among the Cardinals’ top homegrown position-player prospects over the last 50 years. That group would include Ted Simmons, Keith Hernandez, J.D. Drew, Yadier Molina, Pujols and Taveras.

Here’s the quote: “I hate to do this,” Mozeliak told St. Louis station KSDK in December when asked about Carlson. “But he’s the Albert Pujols type or the Oscar Tavares type.”

Jim Furtado Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:42 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, dylan carlson

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   1. salvomania Posted: February 27, 2020 at 08:41 AM (#5926722)
I hear he's really 24.
   2. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5926775)
They probably aren't excited about Dylan Carlson having bought that gun for Kurt Cobain back in '94.
   3. Tin Angel Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5926781)
Hex and Earth 2 are my favorite albums of his. Excited that he's giving baseball a try.
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5926811)
“But he’s the Albert Pujols type or the Oscar Tavares type.”
So you're saying his range of potential outcomes is either Hall of Famer or...dead?
   5. The Duke Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5926816)
Albert’s not in the Hall yet. A few years of -3 WAR per year could do him in. That’s what happened to Simmons
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5926818)
So you're saying his range of potential outcomes is either Hall of Famer or...dead?

To be fair, most HoFers are dead too.
   7. JJ1986 Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5926819)
Albert’s not in the Hall yet. A few years of -3 WAR per year A sign-stealing scandal could do him in.

   8. salvomania Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5926823)
If Carlson makes it to the big leagues this year, he'll be one of six active MLB players from Elk Grove High (CA), assuming backup C David Freitas (2019 with the Mariners and Brewers) latches on with somebody. (The others are the Mets' J.D. Davis; Jays' Rowdy Tellez; Reds' P David Hernandez; and Rockies' backup C Dom Nunez.)

I guess Elk Grove is something of a backup-catcher factory: in addition to the two mentioned above, the most famous Elk Grove MLB alumnus would be broadcaster Buck Martinez, who played 17 seasons at catcher without ever starting more than 87.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5926882)
Why it's almost as if the Cards perceived some financial benefit to Carlson beginning the year in the minors.

Actually, this all seems a bit hype-y. He did have a really nice year last year at AA/AAA but not off the charts. (Well, the 79 PA in AAA were off the charts but it was 79 PA and superball.) He's been young for his leagues and such but prior to last year he hadn't yet cracked a 750 OPS or a 260 BA. He obviously took a massive step forward last year but I'm not sure that deserves jumping into the top 20 prospects until we find out how much of that, if any, was a fluke.

I had forgotten about Taveras. He was a very highly touted prospect but "generational" seems a stretch. He didn't make the majors until 22 and struggled in his 250 PA. That doesn't mean he wouldn't have developed into a very good player (or even a generational player) but before his age 23 season, Pujols had 2 seasons of 150 OPS+ under his belt. Mookie had over 1 season, an OPS+ "only" around 120 but 8 WAR through 22. Taveras's minors numbers were not as good as, say, Kris Bryant at 22. J Upton made the majors at 19 and held his own.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5926923)
I'm a Cardinal fan, but Taveras was way over hyped, his skills was there but the desire and brain were not in the same range of someone like Albert's. Taveras was content with relying on his natural skills... Those type of players aren't generational, they are probable all stars... generational players are the guys who at 21 show up to practice early, leave late, and listen to the coaches etc.... Taveras was just a very good talent.
   11. bbmck Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5926928)
82 of 333 HoF inductees are alive, 74 of 235 inducted for MLB playing careers are alive.

Inducted 1936-1982: Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, Willie Mays, Al Kaline, Bob Gibson, Hank Aaron and 174 deceased
Inducted 1983-2020: 76 living, 77 deceased
BBWAA since 1983: Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Hoyt Wilhelm, Willie McCovey, Catfish Hunter, Willie Stargell, Kirby Puckett, Gary Carter, Tony Gwynn, Roy Halladay and 61 living
Negro League since 1983: 17 deceased
Veterans since 1983: Tommy Lasorda, Orlando Cepeda, Bill Mazeroski, Whitey Herzog, Pat Gillick, Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox, Bud Selig, John Schuerholz, Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Harold Baines, Ted Simmons and 50 deceased
   12. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5926936)
Hex and Earth 2 are my favorite albums of his. Excited that he's giving baseball a try.
That's an interesting combination. I can't get into the early stuff, but love the the Hex/Bees Made Honey.../Angels of Darkness... incarnation of the band.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5926943)
Sheesh, I couldn't even be bothered to read the full excerpt. Now I'll nitpick (and it's very much a nitpick, even a semantic nitpick) on the notion of JD Drew as "homegrown." He was drafted in 1998 and made his ML debut later that year. He was about as homegrown as that fully-grown ficas plant you bought down at the Garden Center. They didn't kill him but they probably coulda watered him more, given him some plant food, etc. because JD Drew always had leaves falling off.

Whitey Ford is still alive? I never would have guessed that. (I wouldn't have been certain about Kaline either but I think I would have guessed alive -- at least I saw him on TV.)
   14. bbmck Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5926944)
Generational talent, best 25 man team born over 25 years so 1986-2010 to center on Carlson is Mike Trout 54.9 WAA, Clayton Kershaw 47.3 (or 49.8) and Mookie Betts is already 3rd with 30.4 just ahead of Chris Sale 30 (or 29.9). Some potential generational talents haven't celebrated their 10th birthday yet. The born 1961-1985 generational team:

C: Mike Piazza 35.9, Ivan Rodriguez 33.4
2B: Chase Utley 41.8, Robinson Cano 37.2, Roberto Alomar 32.6
3B: Adrian Beltre 54.7, Chipper Jones 53.4, Scott Rolen 44.1
SS: Alex Rodriguez 76.1, Barry Larkin 42.5, Derek Jeter 31

1B/DH: Albert Pujols 61.7, Jeff Bagwell 52.1, Frank Thomas 39.3, Edgar Martinez 38.6, Joey Votto 38, Jim Thome 37.6, Mark McGwire 37.1, Miguel Cabrera 35.3, Todd Helton 32.8, Rafael Palmeiro 30.3
CF: Ken Griffey Jr 46.8, Kenny Lofton 38.4, Andruw Jones 36, Jim Edmonds 35, Carlos Beltran 33.8
OF: Barry Bonds 123.9, Larry Walker 48.3, Manny Ramirez 35.7

29 position players with 30+ WAA, Josh Donaldson 29.9, Craig Biggio 29.1, Sammy Sosa 28.2, Ichiro Suzuki 23.9 and the rest for probably 17 or so spots on a 25 man team as a pretty loose definition of generational. Let alone defining generational as Pujols to Trout to Betts or Adell or Carlson.
   15. Tin Angel Posted: February 27, 2020 at 07:56 PM (#5926952)
That's an interesting combination. I can't get into the early stuff, but love the the Hex/Bees Made Honey.../Angels of Darkness... incarnation of the band.


I like them all really. Full Upon Her Burning Lips was strong too. Earth 2 might require some listening enhancing substances.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:29 PM (#5926979)
For baseball purposes, I'm fine with the notion of 10 years or so as a "generation." (I could be talked into 12-13 since that many excellent years is usually the basis of a good HoF argument.) That's obviously more "generational" from the aspect of a baseball career as opposed to a fan's lifetime. It's also potentially short enough that parent and child might bond over the same player.

So the born 1970-79 positional generation team (which will overlap a good bit with bbmck's above):

C: Pudge
1B: Thome
2B: Utley
SS: ARod
3B: Beltre or Chipper (sep'd by 1.3 WAA) ... Utley is #4 in WAA for this cohort
OF: Andruw, Manny, Edmonds, Beltran
DH: Helton, Vlad, Berkman

That's not bad but missing Bonds, Pujols, Griffey hurts.

Obviously some of the 1980-89 cohort are only about halfway through:

C: Mauer, Posey
1B: Pujols, Votto
2B: Cano
SS: Tulo (Simmons will pass him but this is not an impressive bunch)
3B: Donaldson (talk about your dark horses), tied with Wright (boy, put those two careers together ...)
OF: Braun, Stanton, McCutchen (that's pretty weak and things aren't looking good for any of those guys)
DH: Miggy (or Votto)

Possibly lost in these two decades is the rise of the non-corners. In the first bunch, the leader board is ARod, Beltre, Chipper, Rolen, Utley. The 2nd batch has Cano, Donaldson, Wright, Kinsler, Longoria, Pedroia in the top 9 and Tulo 11. And man the 1980-89 OFs are a sorry bunch. And thanks to scandal, the 1970-79 cohort might not produce a HoF OFer either. Are we looking at the longest OF drought in HoF history? There are one or two decent OFs in the 1990-99 cohort though.

I think the longest drought in birth years for OFs is 6 (maybe a 7 early on). It's happened with the last two but of course might disappear with some VC selections. Anyway, Puckett and Gwynn were born in 1960 and the next youngest is Walker in 66. Then Griffey was born in 69 and Vlad in 75. Bonds 64 and Manny 72 would have interrupted both of those streaks. Trout 91 is already by far the leader among post-Vlad OFs with 55 WAA. But between those two it's Andruw, Beltran who were both born in 77 so don't close the gap much to Trout. Berkman's already been dismissed from the ballot and Braun's not gonna make it. Stanton 89 at 24.7 WAA still has a shot if he can get healthy and back on track (ZiPS is not optimistic). Marte 88 and Springer 89 also have some chance of narrowing the gap a bit from the top end.

So "best case" looks like a 77-88 gap, very likely at least 77-91 even if they forgive Beltran or a VC puts Andruw in. That is just astounding to me. I'll employ my confirmation bias and note this is consistent with my idea that some of the IFs of today would have been in the OF ... or that the IFs of today are, in many cases, as big and strong as the OFs of yesteryear. So (give or take) 1995-2015 even with all the HRs, sillyball, PEDs was the era of the IF.

(Note Betts, Harper, Judge are 92, Yelich 91 so none of them come into play here.)

   17. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:32 PM (#5926980)
For baseball purposes, I'm fine with the notion of 10 years or so as a "generation." (I could be talked into 12-13 since that many excellent years is usually the basis of a good HoF argument.) That's obviously more "generational" from the aspect of a baseball career as opposed to a fan's lifetime. It's also potentially short enough that parent and child might bond over the same player.

So the born 1970-79 positional generation team (which will overlap a good bit with bbmck's above):

C: Pudge
1B: Thome
2B: Utley
SS: ARod
3B: Beltre or Chipper (sep'd by 1.3 WAA) ... Utley is #4 in WAA for this cohort
OF: Andruw, Manny, Edmonds, Beltran
DH: Helton, Vlad, Berkman

That's not bad but missing Bonds, Pujols, Griffey hurts.

Obviously some of the 1980-89 cohort are only about halfway through:

C: Mauer, Posey
1B: Pujols, Votto
2B: Cano
SS: Tulo (Simmons will pass him but this is not an impressive bunch)
3B: Donaldson (talk about your dark horses), tied with Wright (boy, put those two careers together ...)
OF: Braun, Stanton, McCutchen (that's pretty weak and things aren't looking good for any of those guys)
DH: Miggy (or Votto)

Possibly lost in these two decades is the rise of the non-corners. In the first bunch, the leader board is ARod, Beltre, Chipper, Rolen, Utley. The 2nd batch has Cano, Donaldson, Wright, Kinsler, Longoria, Pedroia in the top 9 and Tulo 11. And man the 1980-89 OFs are a sorry bunch. And thanks to scandal, the 1970-79 cohort might not produce a HoF OFer either. Are we looking at the longest OF drought in HoF history? There are one or two decent OFs in the 1990-99 cohort though.

I think the longest drought in birth years for OFs is 6 (maybe a 7 early on). It's happened with the last two but of course might disappear with some VC selections. Anyway, Puckett and Gwynn were born in 1960 and the next youngest is Walker in 66. Then Griffey was born in 69 and Vlad in 75. Bonds 64 and Manny 72 would have interrupted both of those streaks. Trout 91 is already by far the leader among post-Vlad OFs with 55 WAA. But between those two it's Andruw, Beltran who were both born in 77 so don't close the gap much to Trout. Berkman's already been dismissed from the ballot and Braun's not gonna make it. Stanton 89 at 24.7 WAA still has a shot if he can get healthy and back on track (ZiPS is not optimistic). Marte 88 and Springer 89 also have some chance of narrowing the gap a bit from the top end.

So "best case" looks like a 77-88 gap, very likely at least 77-91 even if they forgive Beltran or a VC puts Andruw in. That is just astounding to me. I'll employ my confirmation bias and note this is consistent with my idea that some of the IFs of today would have been in the OF ... or that the IFs of today are, in many cases, as big and strong as the OFs of yesteryear. So (give or take) 1995-2015 even with all the HRs, sillyball, PEDs was the era of the IF.

(Note Betts, Harper, Judge are 92, Yelich 91 so none of them come into play here.)

EDIT: the 1970-79 cohort might not produce a HoF OFer either. ... well, duh, Vlad.
   18. bbmck Posted: February 28, 2020 at 01:32 AM (#5926996)
20th century Year of Birth gaps for HoF inductees as MLB players with 500+ games at the position:

C: 21 years - 1926 to 1946, most recent 1971 so any catcher since is shorter gap
2B: 13 years - 1946 to 1958, most recent 1968, Cano or Kinsler ties the gap, Utley is shorter
3B: 16 years - 1906 to 1921, most recent 1972 and Beltre 1979 is presumably a lock
SS: 19 years - 1935 to 1953, most recent 1974, A-Rod 1975, Jeter to Lindor is an 18 year gap

1B/DH: 10 years - 1921 to 1930, most recent 1975, Pujols 1980 and Miggy, Votto and Mauer are 1983
CF: 22 years - 1932 to 1953, most recent 1969 and Trout 1991 is 21 years worst case
LF/RF: 11 years - 1923 to 1933, most recent 1975, covered above

P: 7 years - 1911 to 1917, 1956 to 1962 for SP by excluding Lee Smith, most recent 1977
Clemens and Finley 1962, Stieb 1957, Verlander 1983 and Kershaw 1988

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