The truth of Turner’s and Bogaerts’ market value is somewhere between the annual value and the total value.

So somewhere between $27 M and $300 M? Gotcha.

I think I maybe kinda sorta almost understand what that means -- X is better than a "$25 M player" but he's not a "$280 M player." At least two problems with that -- those labels have always been somewhere between unclear and meaningless and I don't think he is a "$25 M player" as I might use that term. Granted, this offseason is suggesting the meaning of "$25 M player" has shifted.

I probably just under-value X. I put him comfortably in the 2nd tier of SS (with Turner). But the more I think about it, if the Freeman deal was OK at 6/$162 through age 37 ... X is probably a 0.5 to 1 WAR better now and 2 years younger at signing so, even without inflation, maybe 8/$240 was reasonable. Once you're at 8/$240 then deferment, CBT, increased threshold, plain ol' inflation pushing it to 11/$280 might be perfectly reasonable. In NPV terms (3%) the difference is about $20 M.

I wish somebody would do the work to come up with some reasonable estimate of the $/WAR in "NPV terms." Fangraphs gives it a go sorta but their longer-term estimates have seemed high for a while (then I think they adjust them down). What I mean is the NPV on X's deal is about $230 M. If NPV$/WAR is 10, that's a projection of 23 WAR and he seems a pretty good bet to do that over the life of this deal. At current production, he might be there in the first 5 years but, even if he declines early, a couple of average-ish seasons at 35-36 should still get him there. If NPV$/WAR is $8 then the break-even point is about 5 WAR higher and the early decline risk increases. (i.e. the risk is the same, the amount of NPV money that would be wasted goes up though.)

The short-term WAR market should give us a reasonable idea where NPV $/WAR is. We've seen plenty for pitchers, Vazquez is the only position player that comes to mind ... and I'm getting a guesstimate around $8-9 still but I've seen other people saying it's around $10. Hard to tell of course, that's potentially the difference between 1.3 WAR and 1.5 WAR projections for a $13 M AAV starter. And if the first 1 or 2 WAR are cheaper than the above-average WAR ...

But the more I think about it, if the Freeman deal was OK at 6/$162 through age 37 ... X is probably a 0.5 to 1 WAR better now and 2 years younger at signing so, even without inflation, maybe 8/$240 was reasonable.

How could this be, we all know Freddie Freeman is The Best Player In Baseball?