This could be one of those "college of coaches" things. Other teams can carry fourteen pitchers, but the Red Sox will carry eight shortstops.

In fairness to the article, it starts with the more realistic candidates Andrus and Igelesias (and, yikes, Didi and Andreltron). They also mention Rojas as a trade candidate and although it seems the Dodgers grabbed him first, they didn't give up a lot for him so he was a realistic option and Mondesi is a pending FA and not much of a player so that's realistic. Kim and Adames (not mentioned in the excerpt) are pie-in-the-sky, I don't think the Sox have the prospects to make that happen and, even if they did, why would you do that for 2023-24 for a team that's at best mediocre.

I could not begin to tell you what a fair trade for Adalberto Mondesi would look like. Big talent, inconsistent results, many injuries.

Just on general principles, if a team is trading for him with the idea of using him as a starter, I'd want to value him as an everyday starter. That could be a lot for a guy who might be injured all year, though.

But just one year of that everyday starter.

Let Arroyo play there and move Hernandez to 2B.

Hard to believe Mondesi is almost a free agent. He’s been a talented and promising player for so long, but we’ve never seen what he can do for a full season. In 2020 he only missed one game, led the league in steals and cs, but that’s still only a 59 game “season”.

What are the Padres going to do with Ha-Seong Kim? Because if the team is looking for a SS who is team-controlled for the next several years at a very reasonable salary ($15m over the next two years, then eligible for arbitration for a year after that, I believe), plus defender, doesn't hurt you with the bat, still in his 20s...what would it take to get him?

One problem the Red Sox have right now is that most teams are looking for promising young talent in the upper minors - players who are both more easily projectible, as well as about ready to contribute. The lower into the minors you go for a prospects, the less valuable the prospect is - even if they are ranked in the Baseball America Top 100 or whatever.

Well, the Red Sox have very, very little talent that checks both boxes (highly rated and in the AA or AAA):

Triston Casas - but he appears untouchable. Also, if they trade him, it opens up a new hole at 1B.

Ceddanne Rafaela - CF/SS, the glove is outrageous at either position, some power, a lot of speed...but can he make contact enough?

Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy - all starting pitchers who'll begin the year in AAA. None are Top 100-types. Probably decent complimentary pieces in a trade, but certainly not the centerpiece of a legit return.

I'm not really sure anybody else at AA/AAA is going to be interesting to San Diego or anybody else.

So I guess if the Red Sox wanted to go for somebody like Kim, it would take something like Rafaela and one of the pitchers? Given that Rafaela may be playing CF by the end of the year for Boston if he can hit at all in AAA, and Hernandez may be forced into infield duty after the Story injury, this makes me a little reluctant. But I don't really see other talent readily available to trade for Boston. Maybe Houck and one of the pitchers listed above?

I think they should give Dalbec a shot at short or 2nd, with Arroyo at the other. Right now he is inexpensive, baked-in, low-value, redundant, dead wood on the 40mman. He is supposed to be a good athlete, has played a little SS already and his bat carries better at either position. If it rebounds to the 100-110 ops+ range, he starts to become valuable.

Paul Dejong is your guy. Can't hit but solid on defense

Dalbec is a 3B. They messed with him by moving him to first. Asking him to learn play 2B would be cruel. He's probably as good defensively as Devers, but they're not making Devers the DH yet. Turner is the better bet to DH. Around the horn from 1B, Casas, Hernandez, Arroyo, Devers...Turner at DH, Yoshida, Verdugo Duran in the OF, a pile of sewage at C, and let's go. They don't seem like they plan on being competitive until 2025, so buckle up and enjoy the mess that will be the Red Sox for the next two years. (edit)...trading Dalbec is the humane thing to do.

Pitching is a huge unknown. Anyone can say Sale is done. I've said it. Is he?

Paxton? Done?

Pivetta will be what he has been...inconsistent, but passable.

Kluber should be ok.

Houck Whitlock? There's hope there.

We know the offense is going to be bad. They won't score their usual 800+ runs this year or next. The pitching looks to be their "strength" this year. Yeesh.

Paul DeJong is not needed.

We know the offense is going to be bad. They won't score their usual 800+ runs this year or next. The pitching looks to be their "strength" this year. Yeesh.


Given this, it seems like whomever they bring in to play SS should be 1) young-ish, 2) have some team control left. You want someone with some value going forward, in case they work out.

Dalbec will get more pa's in the minors than in the majors this year.

Dejong does make a lot of sense, probably won't cost much in trade. A bit expensive at 1/$11 but with two options at $12 and $15 if he refinds his form.

It might take more than Kim but you could try prying Nico Hoerner away from the Cubs.

Between AAA and the majors Baltimore has five guys that can play a decent SS, and they're going to have to move one or two of them eventually. It would obviously mean trading within the division so no way would the Orioles make it easy, but it could be done.

Given this, it seems like whomever they bring in to play SS should be 1) young-ish, 2) have some team control left. You want someone with some value going forward, in case they work out.

They're most likely going with Mayer in 2025. They're so far away this year (and next) why should they spend money or prospects on a stop gap SS?

They're most likely going with Mayer in 2025. They're so far away this year (and next) why should they spend money or prospects on a stop gap SS?

The idea is to give someone a chance as an everyday SS who wouldn't otherwise get one. If they perform well, the Red Sox have a valuable asset. Who knows if Mayer will be ready, or even good, in 2025. Punting the position with dreck is wasting an opportunity to develop your assets.

develop your assets.

I thought the conversation was about the current Red Sox. There is no one else. Mayer is the #7 ranked prospect in MLB. Volpe is #5. Are you expecting good things from Volpe?

edit...you seem to be suggesting that the Red Sox find that one guy who fell through the cracks and revive his career. I bet you play the lottery, too.

Besides, Story is their SS when he comes back. The term they need a SS isn't counted in years.

Let Arroyo play there and move Hernandez to 2B.

Given the Sox are not contenders this year, and they have a good option when healthy (Story), and prospects on the way, I wouldn't go wild getting a Mondesi or whatever.

Sure, if Andrus/Iglesias is happy to sign cheap, go for it.

Hard to believe Mondesi is almost a free agent. He’s been a talented and promising player for so long, but we’ve never seen what he can do for a full season.

You have seen what Mondesi can do for a full season and the answer is - miss most of it.

1. There is zero evidence Arroyo is a ML-capable SS. Every team so far has declined the chance to give him playing time there and he hasn't played it sigificantly in 5 years or so.

2. There's no team that wants 650 PA from Arroyo at SS, 650 PA from Hernandez at 2B and 650 PA from whoever the Red Sox stick in CF. Even if they want it, they likely won't get it.

3. So really no matter how you slice it, the Red Sox really need at least a 400-500 PA SS who can at least reliably field the position.

But sure, you don't give up real talent for 1 year of whoever (which is why you go sign Andrus) or you offer to take some of deJong's money off the Cards. The only way you give up real talent/money is if you plan on keeping him as "starting" SS/2B after Story returns.

Red Sox 40-man, career starts at SS (minor league totals in parenntheses where appropriate)

Hernandez 64
Arroyo 17 (39 since 2016)
Rafaela (46)
Hamilton (140)

I'm not sure any of those minor-league starts are above AA.

This is a team without a SS. Zero, none, nada, zilch, bupkus (bupkis?) They really have no choice but to add a SS.

I cannot believe we are talking about Dalbec not only being on this team but also playing middle infield???!!!??? No, I won't attend for it. Watching him try to play first was hard enough. We must move on! For my sanity, please.

Besides, Story is their SS when he comes back. The term they need a SS isn't counted in years.

Is that certain? Too lazy to look for it, but a previously-linked (IIRC) article had Story listed as among the weaker-throwing 2nd baseman, based on Statcast velocity, in 2022, before his latest injury. Some pitchers add velocity after TJS, but is that true for fielders after an internal bracing procedure? Would SS put a greater strain on Story’s surgically-repaired arm, creating a risk for further injury down the road? Not a doctor, but given the Red Sox’s investment in Story, it might be better to keep him at 2nd base if that better suits his post-operative ability or reduces the risk of further injury.

They're most likely going with Mayer in 2025. They're so far away this year (and next) why should they spend money or prospects on a stop gap SS?

I mean, aside from how there will be an awful lot of infield hits if they don't have one, they've got to sell tickets and NESN360 subscriptions and maybe a t-shirt or two at the Twins Enterprises shops across the street.

Besides, Mayer could turn out to be nothing; the last middle infield plan was Jeter Downs, after all.

This is a team without a SS.

Agreed, and given all the rest (the available SS aren't worth the money, for this team), and that they used Arroyo there last year for a game or 3, to me, he's as good as anyone else they could trot out there. The season is sunk from the get go. 3rd place would be a miracle. So who gives a #### how bad they are? There's probably a decline in season ticket sales. Maybe not. Either way, when the team gets better, the fans will return (if they leave in the first place).

If you're a stickler, ok, sign Iglesias, if you can get him for 5M (what he was paid last year). They project him for 1.4 WAR this year. That gets them to 70 wins. Whoopee!

Eventually, they're gonna have to spend their way out of this, and they seem to be positioning themselves to have the room to do so. A combo of FA signings (an ace, a couple of OF bats, a DH and a C) with Mayer and the CF they seem to like (I don't...he's undersized and unless he can cover 3/4 of the OF his bat won't be enough to warrant him being more than a 4th OF), to go along with Casas, Devers, Story will get them back to being a contender. They're a long way away.

You have seen what Mondesi can do for a full season and the answer is - miss most of it.

Which means he'll cost you a C+ prospect. Might as well try him.

Anybody know about Andrus's contract/status? His long-term contract had a vesting option for 2023, triggered by 550 PA in 2022 or 1100 across 2021-22 ad he met both conditions. But in 2022, he was released by the A's then signed as FA by the White Sox. But then this Nov he seems to have been granted regular FA as if the option did not take effect and his contract ended. (But his contract with the White Sox did end so I guess that's probably correct.)

So is he being paid $15 M by the A's and therefore free to whoever signs him? Or do you get out of vesting options if you release the guy?

I would hope the A's are paying him. The White Sox didn't assume that contract, which is still valid, wouldn't it be? I would hope.

edit...given the info about his contract with the A's in #29, the above is not the case.

Anybody know about Andrus's contract/status? His long-term contract had a vesting option for 2023, triggered by 550 PA in 2022 or 1100 across 2021-22 ad he met both conditions. But in 2022, he was released by the A's then signed as FA by the White Sox. But then this Nov he seems to have been granted regular FA as if the option did not take effect and his contract ended. (But his contract with the White Sox did end so I guess that's probably correct.)

So is he being paid $15 M by the A's and therefore free to whoever signs him? Or do you get out of vesting options if you release the guy? I have found one article that suggests it would have vested (as a player option) only with 550 PA with the A's or being traded or claimed off waivers. Since none of those happened, I guess he's a regular FA.

All told looks like he put up 16.5 WAR for $120 M which is fine. About 1/3 of that WAR was in 2017 so just puttering along as a 1.5 WAR SS the rest of the time.

So an OF of Verdugo Kike Yoshida would be average to slightly better than average defensively, average OBP and below average SLG. I guess if they all have good seasons, for them, they may not come in last by a lot.

Vesting options are only for the original team, unless a player is traded or claimed off waivers. If the player is released, the vesting option doesn't transfer.

29 - what cookiedabookie said; he was released pretty explicitly to avoid the option vesting

What in the hell are people talking about here? Am I in some bizarre alternate reality? Story cannot be counted on to play shortstop. His arm was already questionable for second base BEFORE surgery and it's even clear when he'll be back. Arroyo is a passable second basemen but there's no reason to think he could hack short, not to mention he will probably miss half the season like he usually does. None of these are even short term solutions even if you've decided to punt the season.

Andrus and Iglesias are both out there and both affordable. Get at least one. Or if they're cool with playing Hernandez in the infield, get a CF. This isn't very complicated.

What in the hell are people talking about here? Am I in some bizarre alternate reality?

Very funny.

Everybody is looking for a CF, there aren't any. Granted, if you're down to looking for a defense-first SS to pair with your (not yet signed) defense-first SS, a glove-only CF might be fine and there are always plenty of those.

So an OF of Verdugo Kike Yoshida would be average to slightly better than average defensively, average OBP and below average SLG. I guess if they all have good seasons, for them, they may not come in last by a lot.

Again, who's the 4th OF? The 5th OF? The extra DH PAs? These guys are not likely to each be out there for 650 PAs and, if they are, you probably don't want them to be. Hernandez's career high is 585 in 2021, his only season over 500. These 3 guys might combine for about 1700 PAs but that's still gonna leave you with about 600 (4th OF, some DH, Hernandez at 2B) for Duran et al. Last year, 8 different guys got 16+ starts in the OF, only Verdugo topped 77. Those guys also combined for about 25 starts at DH. The "big 3" could all be average and the Red Sox OF would probably still come in around 1.5-2 wins below average.

Again, who's the 4th OF?

They're a last place team. I know this. Evidently, you stay out of Sox Therapy.

I've been saying that Hernandez isn't an everyday player since early last year.

The 4th and 5th OF could be Duran and Goodrum. Neither are terrible, neither are very good.

Everybody is looking for a CF, there aren't any.

True. I saw some rumor that they were looking at Duvall for CF. I'm fine with that if they think he can play there.

Again, who's the 4th OF? The 5th OF?

4th and 5th OF are Refsnyder and Duran, with a small hope that Rafaela can contribute at some point in the season. I feel pretty good about that. Refsnyder hits lefties well and plays decent defense, and this is probably Duran's last chance to prove he has some value at the Major League level.

Hernandez's career high is 585 in 2021, his only season over 500.

Was Hernandez injury prone on the Dodgers or was he just playing a supersub role? If it's the latter, I feel pretty good about his being able to play full time this year.


Another DH/1B type would be handy for sure.

What if Bogaerts and Kim simply switched spots?

I read this as "What if Bogaerts and Kim simply switched sports?" and thought, "What sport? Bowling? Hockey? Tae Kwon Do?"

Looking back at his game logs, it looks like Hernandez rarely missed more than a game or two at a time. (The one exception I could find was in 2019 when he missed a 22 game stretch). So his overall history is fine, although his injury last year is an obvious concern.

As far as trading for a SS goes, the only players who I think are significantly better than the free agent options are going to cost more in prospects than they'll want to pay.

Nick Ahmed has one year 10M left on his contract. He missed most of last year with shoulder surgery, but will be ready at start of spring training,

Much of Hernandez's value is in two skills:

1) He's an excellent defensive center fielder.
2) He is a legit "supersub" type for CF, SS, and 2B.

Given that the team currently has no SS, no CF (except for Hernandez), and an injury-prone Arroyo for 2B,the best way to use Hernandez this year is probably toggling between the three positions as needed, with most of the playing time coming at CF.

By the way, one thing this thread occasionally says directly, but is constantly implying, is that all of the solutions are short-term, cheap, and unrelated to competing in 2023.

I have several friends with partial or full season ticket packages that they were pursuing, or have been renewing, for 10-20 years. Most of them have decided not to renew for 2023. It's an expensive ticket, the product is not entertaining, and they believe they can get single-game tickets at very reasonable prices on the resale market if they want to go to a game once in a while. One of them actually said to me last week, without a touch of irony, that he was looking forward to all the extra time he was going to have this summer not watching the Red Sox on TV or in person.

This stuff goes in cycles. I am confident the Red Sox will be a hot ticket in the region again at some point, probably sooner than we can imgaine right now. But not in 2023...

4th and 5th OF are Refsnyder and Duran

I chose Goodrum over Refsnyder because Goodrum is 2 years younger, hits for power more often, and runs better. Plus he can play 2B.

I chose Goodrum over Refsnyder because Goodrum is 2 years younger, hits for power more often, and runs better. Plus he can play 2B.

Hey, they both might get playing time because of the team's lack of talent!

2) He is a legit "supersub" type for CF, SS, and 2B.

He has just 64 career starts at SS, 16 in the last 4 years. He's an emergency SS not a supersub. Yes, his role has been as supersub which means teams haven't viewed him as a good every day option. This is surely primarily due to his career 671 OPS and sub-300 OBP vs RHP. No doubt Hernandez will take the field at SS 150 times a year if you ask him to. But if your main starting CF became your main starting 2B when X wasn't signed and then became your starting SS when Story got hurt, you're a team that really kinda needs to sign Andrus or Iglesias or trade cheap for Mondesi or something.

they've got to sell tickets and NESN360 subscriptions

We got NESN360 to watch some Six games, but mostly because the tickets seemed to cover most of the cost. Turns out we only watched a game or two, and we probably could have gotten the tickets even cheaper.

But it turns out it has the Bruins, so...